Earnings Labs

Banco Macro S.A. (BMA)

Q1 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, May 29, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's 1Q '25 Earnings Conference Call. We would like to inform you that the first quarter 2025 press release is available to download at the Investor Relations website of Banco Macro, www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores. Also, this event is being recorded and all participants will be in a listen only mode during the company's presentation. After the company's remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina, Mr. Jorge Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Nicolas Torres, IR. Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolas Torres. You may begin your conference.

Nicolas Torres

Management

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro first quarter 2025 conference call. Any comment we may make today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various conditions and these are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed to the SEC, and it's available at our website. First quarter 2025 press release was distributed yesterday, and it's available at our website. All figures are in Argentine pesos and have been restated in terms of the measurement unit current at the end of the reporting period. As of 2020, the Bank began reporting results applying Hyperinflation Accounting in accordance with IFRS IAS 29 as established by the Central Bank. For ease of comparison, figures of previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through March 31st, 2025. I will now briefly comment on the Bank's first quarter 2025 financial results. In the first quarter of 2025, Banco Macro's net income totaled ARS45.7 billion. This result was 59%, or ARS65.3 billion, lower than the fourth quarter of 2024. This result was mainly due to lower net income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value through profit or loss and the bigger loss related to the result from the net monetary position, higher inflation was observed in the quarter, which was partially offset by higher other operating income and lower employee benefits and administrative expenses. The annualized return on average equity and the accumulated annualized return on average assets were 3.8% and 1.2%, respectively. In the first quarter of 2025, net operating income before general and administrative expenses was ARS801 billion, 9% or ARS82.6 billion lower compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, due to lower income from interest on government securities. On a yearly basis, net operating…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Brian Flores with Citi.

Brian Flores

Analyst

Hi, team. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity to ask question. The first one is just a quick update on guidance to see if anything has changed. We remember, you discussed maybe a real loan growth of 60% deposits at around 30, an ROE ranging between 12 and 15, and with a core equity Tier 1 ratio maybe at 25%, 26%. So just wanted to know, if there are any updates on that. And then a second, just to maybe seize the opportunity on capital, right? Because you benefited from capital, you have one of the strongest positions in the system. So just wanted to hear your thoughts on that. If you're going to focus completely on organic growth, or if at some point inorganic growth, it's also an opportunity. Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

Good morning, Brian. This is Jorge Scarinci. On your first question, we are going to keep some of the guidance that we gave on the last quarter and we are going to change a little bit some of them. In terms of loan growth, we continue to maintain the 60% loan growth in real terms for 2025. In deposits, we are forecasting a real growth of 45%. In terms of capital ratio, we should maybe increase a little bit our forecast, the capital ratio by the end of 2025 should be ranging in the area of 28%, 29%. And in terms of ROE, we are downgrading a little bit from the former conference. We expect to have between 8% to 10% ROE for 2025. Of course, this is going to be or could be affected by the evolution of bond prices. This 8% to 10% is considering ordinary evolution of prices. If we see prices improving, ROE could be ranging slightly above 10%. But let's say, 8% to 10% is the range that we are forecasting as a normal scenario in 2025. In terms of your second question on the capital structure, yes, we know that we have the best capital in the Argentine banking sector. That's why we are speeding up in increasing organic growth as much as we can and taking advantage of loan demand. That is what we are focusing for the moment. We believe that in the future there will be some other opportunities, maybe for M&A. Honestly, there's nothing that we are studying right now, but we are positive that in the next couple of years or three years, the number of banks in Argentina might shrink. And we are going to be on alert and trying to analyze any acquisition target that should appear in the market.

Brian Flores

Analyst

Thank you, Jorge. And if I may just a follow up on what you mentioned on deposits, is this increase because it's significant, right? It's from 30 to 45. Is this driven by maybe looking to compete on remunerative accounts that some of your competition is doing? Or what is driving these better prospects on deposit growth?

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

The thing is that, the first quarter, in terms of volume growth, both in loans and deposit, but more in deposits were slightly ahead of expectations. That's why, we are increasing that. And also because we are seeing maybe dollar deposit growth slightly stronger than what we had expected.

Brian Flores

Analyst

Super clear. Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

You're welcome, Brian.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst · Bank of America.

Thank you. Hi, good morning, Jorge and Nico. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. My first question will be on your macro expectations. Just wondering what are you expecting in terms of interest rates, inflation, GDP growth and FX for this and next year? And my second question will be on operating expenses. As you mentioned in your remarks, there was a decline in the first quarter. So, just wondering how should we think about the OpEx growth this year? And then my second question will be on your loan to deposit ratio and your strong capital ratio. On your loan to deposit ratio, I believe, it's already at 86%. So, how are you expecting the evolution of this ratio, especially, considering a long road of 60%, and that now you're expecting deposits to grow at 45%? And then your capital ratio, it seems very strong, you have an excess of capital. So a follow up to the first question is, if there could be M&A in the sector and this especially considering that if we have a positive outcome on the mid-term elections next October, probably will be a good timing to do it before that? Or do you think there was still chance to do it after that, but considering to pay higher multiples in a potential consolidation in the sector. So just wanted to hear your thoughts on that. Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst · Bank of America.

Hi, Ernesto, how are you? Well, let's start from the first question. In terms of macroeconomic expectations. For GDP, we are forecasting a real growth for this year of 5% and 3% for 2026. In terms of inflation, we are expecting according to the consensus, 30% area inflation in 2025, and 22% area inflation for 2026. In terms of interest rates, we believe that we are going to see in 2025, at least, some declining trend in domestic interest rates. And according to the margins, I think that these are going to be slightly positive for the margins of the sector and Banco Macro, basically because our deposits reprice faster than our loans, plus that the mix in loans that we are lending fostering consumer, that is the segment that show the highest rates. That is going to help to maybe span a little bit the margins along 2025. In terms of operating expenses, yes, we had -- we put some decrease in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year. If I have to assume for 2025, I would assume operating expenses to move close to inflation rate. So, let's say, in the area of 30%, maybe in the bottom part of the area of 30%, maybe 1 percentage point or 2 percentage points below inflation. But let's assume close to inflation for 2025. In terms of the loans to deposit ratio. Yes, we are increasing that ratio. Also we are increasing the other ratio, that is loans as a percentage of total assets. Remember that, one year ago, loans represented only 25% of total assets. And in the first quarter of this year, loans represented 48% of total assets. So, that's a big increase. Even in the quarter, we jumped from 40% in the fourth…

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst · Bank of America.

Thank you very much, Jorge.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst · Bank of America.

Welcome, Ernesto.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

Hello, and thank you for taking my question. I wanted to ask you about your bond portfolio, your public securities, and we want to know, how you would like to be positioned. And I'm thinking about what currency, what indexator, do you prefer inflation linkers, not inflation linkers, and what your preference is as to how you want to have this classified available for sale, trading or held to maturity. Where would you like to have the bond portfolio, let's say, for the next year? And how would you contrast that to other banks? And the second question is, I think that you have your CEO here for the first time. And maybe you want to introduce him to us. Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

Hi, Carlos, how are you? Thanks for your questions. In terms of the bond portfolio, there is a clear table in page 20 of the press release with all the exposure and the accounting slots that we have. We are working on maybe some permutative changes, but that is related on maybe reserve requirements just to move some bonds in replace of others. We want to have in available for sale level of maybe ARS1 billion similar the current level, but maybe with different bonds, in order to be able to trim down this public sector exposure, in order to keep on fueling the loan growth that we are forecasting. And in terms of exposure, for the moment, we feel comfortable having a high exposure on inflation. For the moment, we believe that is the best way to hedge the equity of the bank. And in terms of the CEO, he has to step up for a second, he has a phone call. But if he comes back, we are going to introduce Juan on the call.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

Okay. Very good. And I mean, it's good what you were saying. So you are, I mean, distinctly more exposed to inflation linkers. And again, for you, that is justified by the fact that you have more capital than your peers, is that correct?

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

Yes, that's correct.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

Welcome, Carlos.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no more questions at this time. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now turn over to Mr. Nicolas Torres for final considerations.

Nicolas Torres

Management

Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again. Have a good day.