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Banco Macro S.A. (BMA)

Q2 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 28, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. We would like to inform you that the second Q '25 press release is available to download at the Investor Relations website of Banco Macro, www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Jorge Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Nicolas Torres, IR. Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolas Torres. You may begin your conference.

Nicolas A. Torres

Analyst

Investor Relations

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's Second Quarter 2025 Conference Call. Any comments we may make today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various conditions, and these are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed to the SEC, and it's available at our website. Second quarter 2025 press release was distributed yesterday, and it's available at our website. All figures are in Argentine pesos and have been restated in terms of the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period. As of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting in accordance with IFRS IAS 29 as established by the Central Bank of Argentina. For ease of comparison, figures of previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through June 30, 2025. I will now briefly comment on the bank's second quarter 2025 financial results. In the second quarter of 2025, Banco Macro's net income totaled ARS 149.5 billion, which was 209% or ARS 101.1 billion higher than in the previous quarter. This result was mainly due to higher net interest income as well as higher net fee income, higher net income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value to profit or loss and higher FX income and the lower loss related to the result from the net monetary position as lower inflation was registered in the quarter, which was partially offset by lower other operating income, higher loan loss provisions and higher income tax. This result represented an annualized ROE and ROA of 12% and 3.5%, respectively. Total comprehensive income for the quarter totaled ARS 157.1 billion, 241% or ARS 111 billion higher than the result posted in the previous quarter. Net operating income before general and administrative…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America. Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez: I have a couple of questions from my side. The first one will be on what could be the potential impact on NIMs and asset quality from the recent volatility on interest rates and debt auctions. Should we continue to expect volatility in the next weeks. Yesterday, we saw the renewal of peso debt maturities, but still at high rates. My understanding is that you are participating in the debt auctions, which are coming with a high cost of funding but at the same time, you are lending personal loans with 3-year maturity and high fixed rates. So I just want to understand if this should help to compensate the temporary higher cost of funding. And on the other hand, my question is, if we have these high fixed rates, I don't know if at some point, this could create asset quality deterioration on your client base. I know a lot of questions in this first one, but I would appreciate your thoughts. And my second question is on your ROE expectations. So looking to the first half, it came at the low end of the guidance range of 8% to 10%. We have seen other peers reducing guidance because of the temporary macro backdrop. So how are you thinking about your ROE in the second half and full year?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

Good morning, Ernesto. This is Jorge Scarinci, thanks for your questions. The first one, yes, we are in an environment with a higher volatility than the one that we experienced at least in the first quarter of this year. I would say that the government is trying to reach the midterm elections with some peace on FX expectations and also on inflation expectations to have these 2 macro variables under control. I think that the work or the consequences of this is basically what the government is looking for because inflation is under control, below 2% on a monthly basis. And also the FX is also under control in the current spot market. Yes, of course, also, we are foreseeing -- sorry, we are seeing an increase in the funding cost, basically on time deposits. We are seeing interest rates going up. It is also true that in time deposits, we have a well-optimized deposit base and with a big standing in the interior of the country. And in those deposits, we can relatively pay lower interest rates compared to our competitors that are more based in Buenos Aires area. But even though that we are seeing an increase in the funding cost. It is also true what you mentioned about the debt auctions that we are going to these auctions in order to comply with the reserve requirements that have been increased a lot in the last 30 to 45 days. And it is also true, what you mentioned that we are extending loans on personal lending with high interest fixed rates. I would say that even though -- if you have a look at the NIMs in the second quarter and also in the first half of 2025, we have been able to increase or to enlarge or…

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

I would assume cost of risk similar than the one that we saw maybe in the first half of 2025. In the year of 4%, I would say 4% would be something reasonable to forecast for the second half.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Flores with Citi.

Brian Flores

Analyst · Citi.

And I have only 1 question. How -- what do you estimate for the year then your Tier 1 ratio would be?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst · Citi.

In terms of the Tier 1 ratio considering the increase in loans and the installments that we are paying our cash dividends announced in May of this year, we are forecasting to end 2025 with a Tier 1 ratio in the area of 28.75.

Brian Flores

Analyst · Citi.

And thinking on another question, what are your thoughts on the quality of the retail loan portfolio for the system?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst · Citi.

Sorry, can you repeat that, sorry?

Brian Flores

Analyst · Citi.

What are your thoughts on the quality of the retail loan portfolio for the system?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst · Citi.

Sorry. Yes, I mean, as I was commenting in the previous question, we are seeing some deterioration in asset quality, basically the increase in nominal and real interest rates is also impacting in the rhythm of the economic growth. What we are forecasting is that it should be maintained at least in the third quarter, and we could see some relaxation of these interest rates in the fourth quarter, but in terms of delinquency rate, as I mentioned before, we are forecasting to have continued deterioration in our case, maybe to level up to 3% of total loans by the end of the year. And I would say that across the board, it's going to be similar or might be a bit worse in other banks, Brian.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan.

Yuri Rocha Fernandes

Analyst · JPMorgan.

I have one regarding the funding growth, especially in peso. I know all the costs debate, but we also have a volume debate, right? Like we are seeing your LDR in local currency approach 100%. This is not only Macro. This is in the industry, it's the lack of as we get it. But what is the strategy for the funding, Jorge? What should Macro do? Or should we see loan growth deceleration because like funding is getting too expensive and too difficult to find. So if you can comment a little bit on your funding strategy, maybe some guidance on deposits and also comment a little bit on your loan growth guidance. I would appreciate. And then I can ask a second question.

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst · JPMorgan.

I mean in terms of what we are doing in terms of funding is, ideally, we are trying to pay higher cost. But as far as we can, a relatively lower higher cost compared to our peers. As I mentioned in the first question, basically because of the deposit base more focused on the interior of the country and more retail than other peers. But of course, the idea is to continue growing in both in pesos deposits and dollar deposits. To give you in dollar deposits, we have the very competitive interest rates among the market, even though we have to say that we were able to issue a corporate bond in the second quarter. That is, of course, is also helping the funding in dollars. We raised $530 million. It was a great transaction. So in that sense, we feel really comfortable and pretty liquid when you look at the liquidity standards in Macro, you can see that we have the highest levels among our peers, both in pesos and in dollars. And going back into pesos. Also remember that we have been mentioning this in previous calls, that in order to fuel the increase in loans, we not only look at the increase in deposits, but also the portfolio of securities that we have that we can also change or transform into loans. So -- but the idea is to keep on growing in both deposit in pesos and in dollars and also in loans. To give you the guidance that we have when you look at loans, for example, in the first half of 2025, we grew 36% in real terms our loans. The idea is to maintain the 60% loan growth guidance that we have been giving in the previous quarter. So 60% is maintained as a guidance for 2025 for loans. Deposits in the first half of 2025, we grew our deposit base by 15%. So the idea is to keep the 30% guidance for 2025 for the moment.

Yuri Rocha Fernandes

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Super clear, Jorge. Just a follow-up here. Do you think like government may change like reserve requirements for the elections? Is there a hope from the industry here to help on this?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst · JPMorgan.

I mean, Yuri, the government at least what they have been saying is that at least in August, we are finishing August this weekend. So next Monday, we are starting September, so at least in August, they didn't want to see spare liquidity in pesos that could be fueling an increase in inflation on the FX. So that was the main reason behind the increase in reserve requirements. Honestly, I don't know what will happen in September. I think that we have to focus on what could be going on in the Buenos Aires province election that is taking place on Sunday, the seventh of September, I would say that if the government can have a good performance in that election, I would say that all the liquidity and FX and inflation, everything is going to be more relaxed after that. But honestly, it is very difficult for me to answer that question right now, Yuri.

Yuri Rocha Fernandes

Analyst · JPMorgan.

No, I know it's a difficult one. Just a final one here, Jorge, on my side. Going back to Ernesto's questions on the margin pressure for the third quarter. you mentioned a marginal pressure. Can you quantify or explain the moving parts? Where I struggle is the funding, right? When you go to the time deposits, like you go to the [indiscernible] I don't know, running around 60%. And this is something that started in July. And when you go to the asset side, I know you can reprice some loans, but we see an increasing rate for commercial papers, right, and those other things. But when we go to the personal loss, we don't see a major repricing. And then when I think about your, I don't know, mortgage book that will not reprice as quickly, I struggle with like a marginal pressure. I would expect like a bigger pressure for the third quarter. So if you can help us understand a little bit. I know it's a quarterly thing, so it should not change our story. But just to understand a little bit the third quarter margin pressure here, how to quantify this.

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Well, we are in the middle of the third quarter. So -- and with this volatile scenario, it's not easy to forecast. For the moment, what we are doing is what you have been mentioning, the increase that we are seeing in the time deposits, of course, is translated in short-term lending. Also, we are -- we have been repricing a little bit our personal loans. Remember that interest rate that we have in personal loans were in the area of 73%. Nominal, we are or we have been moving those rates to low 80s. But basically, the big impact is on the short-term liquidity that we are charging to big corporates in short-term financing and also maybe in some short-term discount documents. If I have to say -- I would say that the compression that we could be foreseeing in the third quarter again, should be in the area of 100 basis points for the moment. I mean this could change. But for the moment, that is what we are seeing.

Yuri Rocha Fernandes

Analyst · JPMorgan.

So late August, that's your best guess. Super clear, Jorge. Congrats on your asset quality. Now a congrats to worsening is not good, but as I said, it will be a little bit better than most peers. So good on that.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Matias Cattaruzzi with Adcap Securities. Matías Cattaruzzi: Yes, I have a question about the expected loan growth and deposit growth for 2025. The guidance was 60% on loans and as well of 45% on deposits. We've seen 25% on the first quarter on loans and then 14%. So there is still room to grow in loans and deposits are on the -- only at 5% and 4% growth in prior quarters. How do you see this tendency, especially with the third quarter expected to be a little bit more illiquid than prior expectations?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

Yes, what we are seeing is that in the third quarter, at least in terms of lending, there should be a number maybe not that high. But what we are forecasting is in the fourth quarter, macroeconomic conditions should be more relaxed and there could be some pickup there in demand in order to get to the 60% guidance in loans. And also in terms of the guidance in deposits that I mentioned that is 30% for 2025 is similar. I would say that some volatility in the third quarter and more normalized scenario in the fourth quarter. Matías Cattaruzzi: And then another question on your strong capital position. Do you still consider M&A activity, acquiring a midsized peer or given valuations right now are more heard than before. Or what are your -- what is your outlook on that field?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

I mean when you look at Banco Macro and our track record, we always are trying to find opportunities in the markets. So of course, if there is an opportunity, we are going to analyze it. Of course, price is very important. The physical presence of branches, type of businesses, overlapping of branches we consider all that. So for the moment, there's nothing on the table but we are open to analyze any potential target as always, as we have been doing in the last 22 years. Matías Cattaruzzi: Great. And then on loan growth opportunities going forward, which should be the mix going forward? We've seen some rising NPLs on consumer lending. Are you shifting to corporates and small and medium enterprises? Or what's your outlook?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

We maintain our policy of being a universal bank and tackling commercial and consumer lending with the same appetite. Of course, in this volatile scenario, we are a bit more conservative in some requirements for both type of loans, commercial and consumer. And of course, with the higher interest rates, but that -- we are not stopping one in order to focus into the other.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Shamalee Vanderpoorten. What is the inflation adjustment item in the P&L? Is it due to inflation accounting?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

Yes, it's due to inflation accounting.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Jonty Fish. What real growth for loans can we expect for '25 and '26?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

Well, in terms of loan growth for '25, I have been commenting that 60%. And for 2026 for the moment, we are forecasting a 45% real loan growth.

Operator

Operator

There are no more questions at this time. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now turn over to Mr. Nicolas Torres for final considerations.

Nicolas A. Torres

Analyst

Investor Relations

Analyst

Thank you for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes Banco Macro's conference. Thank you.