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Banco Macro S.A. (BMA)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Mon, Dec 1, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. We would like to inform you that the third Q '25 press release is available to download at the Investor Relations website of Banco Macro, www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Jorge Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Nicolas Torres, IR. Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolas Torres. You may begin your conference, sir.

Nicolas Torres

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call. Any comments we may make today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various conditions, and these are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed to the SEC, and it's available at our website. Third quarter 2025 press release was distributed last Wednesday, and it's available at our website. All figures are in Argentine pesos and have been restated in terms of the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period. As of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting in accordance with IFRS IAS 29 as established by the Central Bank. For ease of comparison, figures of previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through September 30, 2025. I will now briefly comment on the bank's third quarter 2025 financial results. In the third quarter of 2025, Banco Macro's net income totaled ARS 33.1 billion loss, which was ARS 191.5 billion lower than the previous quarter. This result was mainly due to higher loan loss provisions, higher administrative expenses, lower income from government and private securities and lower net fee income that were partially offset by higher other operating income and a lower loss related to the net monetary position. Total comprehensive income for the quarter totaled ARS 28.4 billion loss. And in the first 9 months of 2025 Banco Macro's net income totaled ARS 176.7 billion, 35% below than the same period of last year. When total comprehension income totaled ARS 186.9 billion in the same period. As of the third quarter of 2025, the accumulated annualized ROE and ROA were 4.5% and 1.5%, respectively. Net operating income before general and administrative and personnel expenses was…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

I guess 2 questions. The first one is one has a sense that your result is worse than you had anticipated. You did not, I think, expect to have a loss. Was there anything special that we could point to? Or let's say, did you take the opportunity to take any charges to expenses that we haven't discussed? Could you identify anything which was special that perhaps was not forecast a little bit before? And second, what do you expect for next year in terms of loan growth and achievable returns, understanding that there's a lot of uncertainty?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

Thanks for your questions. In relation to your first question well, I think that is quite clear on the press release that there was a combination of different factors, and some of them were a bit more or deeper than what we expected at the beginning. First, in terms of the delinquency rate, we were expecting not such that amount of provisions that finally we have to post. That's a consequence, as you also saw in the other banks that also released results on the past week, that was a kind of an increase or almost peak in terms of NPLs. That is one of the reasons for that. Second reason, there were some additional expenses that we also accounted in the quarter that were not expected before. So -- and also the compression on the margins due to the big increase of roller coaster interest rate behavior during the third quarter. And also, I would say that last but not least, is the performance on the bond prices and the impact on the bond portfolio performance. So that is in relation to your first question. According to your second question in terms of forecast for next year, we are forecasting loans to grow 35% in real terms. Deposits to grow in the area of 25% in real terms, and we continue to expect ROE for 2026 to be in the low tens.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

And could you give some more detail about your extra expenses? Is that related to adjustment to the footprint or any consultant or any system that you have purchased? Anything we could know more about expenses and whether they're recurring or nonrecurring?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

No. Basically, Carlos, those that we posted there that are related to the early retirement plans that were not expected to happen and they finally happened. So that we're described on the press release, basically.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America. Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez: My first question will be on asset quality. So I just want to double check when do you expect the peak on NPLs? And if you can provide us a potential range? And where do you see the peak in cost of risk? And how should we think it for next year? My second question is a follow-up on your ROE. As you said, you're expecting low teens in 2026. But how should we think about the ROE for 2025? And then my last question is on your capital ratio and potential M&A opportunities. You continue to have an important excess in capital. You already have passed the midterm election. So when do you expect to start to have M&A activity? Do you think is something that could come next year? Any color on that will be very helpful.

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

On your first question in terms of asset quality, we believe that the peak on NPLs should happen or should happen between October and November. And that is what we are seeing in terms of the delinquency ratio, also in terms of cost of risk. We posted at 6.5% in the third quarter. We expect this number to be maintained approx in the fourth quarter, and we are forecasting to be more close to 5% in 2026. So again, the peak should be between the third and the fourth quarter in terms of delinquency. In terms of ROE for 2025, we continue to maintain the 8% area for 2025 in terms of ROE. On your question about capital ratio, I mean, it is true that we continue to have this high level of capitalization of excess capital. Of course, we are honored and trying to find out if there is an opportunity to make the use of this excess capital in terms of M&A. Of course, you know that any player trying to leave the game is pretty sure that it's going to knock our door. And of course, we are going to analyze the target of the assets. And if it is good, we are going to go for it. If not, we are going to wait for another one. So that's the idea going forward. So we expect to have some news about that in the next maybe 12 to 18 months, basically, but it's not only depending on us.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Flores with Citi.

Brian Flores

Analyst · Citi.

I have a question on growth, right, because probably this is the first option in terms of capital allocation, given the wide base of capital. Could you elaborate a bit on where will you focus this growth if you're going to give priority to corporates? Or do you think maybe it is time to gain share, be more aggressive on the consumer side? Just if you could maybe expand this guidance that you provided for 2026 by segment. I think that would be great. And then, Jorge, I think we spoke very recently, we had an event where we participated. I think we discussed sustainable ROE. Just wanted to check if maybe 2026 is part of this transition for, let's say, 15% to 20% of levels of sustainable ROE.

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst · Citi.

In terms of the first question about loan growth going forward, I mean, we expect to grow across the board, both commercial and consumer. And the consequence of this is because there is a very low penetration in the Argentine banking sector. It is below 10% of loan to GDP. We're expecting, according to the consensus of the economies, a real GDP growth of around 3% in 2026 with inflation also estimated by the consensus of economies in the area of 20%. So we expect demand to come from both companies and also consumers. So the idea is to grow. If you want to put in that kind of percentages of our loan book, as of today, we are approx 65% consumer, 35% commercial. That could be at the end of 2026, maybe 60-40, but there's not going to be a big change in our loan book composition because we're expecting loan demand to come from every sector in Argentina. In terms of ROE going forward, second question, yes, 2026 is going to continue to be another transition year towards the area of 20% ROE that we are supposed to be delivering 2027 onwards.

Brian Flores

Analyst · Citi.

No. Super clear. Jorge, maybe just if I can, a quick follow-up on these questions on capital allocation. Would you consider the current stock levels as attractive in terms to continue the buyback activity you showed during the third quarter?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst · Citi.

Well, Brian, that is something that the Board might consider. For the moment, the program that was said it is not more going on basically because of the price that's skyrocketed since then. And as a consequence of the election in the -- of the midterm election that happened here in Argentina, and of course, the mood that turned into positive for Argentina. So for another buyback program, we have to -- I mean the Board has to consider many issues going forward. For the moment, it's not going to be in place anymore.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Pedro Leduc with Itaú BBA.

Pedro Leduc

Analyst

Two, please. First, on NIMs. Now of course, this quarter, we had this very adverse environment for funding costs and liquidity reserves, et cetera. But we also saw a lot of repricing in local portfolios. So now that funding is normalized, can we expect, for example, 4Q NIMs to be back to, let's say, at least 2Q levels? And if we look at on an aggregate basis, 2026, there's a lot of moving pieces for NIMs in 2025 as well, so this is harder. But on an aggregate basis, should we see NII grow above this 35% real loan book growth in your view and if you can go over the driving forces there. And then last, that's just a follow-up on NPLs. Of course, it's been a trend there. Yours took a little bit longer, and it seems like you're more comfortable in seeing the peak already in 4Q. Some players might be seeing slipping over to 1Q, 2Q. So if you can share with us what you have done there to control this and maybe be out of the peak also already in the fourth quarter in terms of NPLs.

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

In relation to the question about NIMs, yes. Basically, what happened with the cost of funding and also other interest rates that were ups and downs in the third quarter. We saw similar to other banks in this third quarter, our NIMs being affected. We posted at 18.7% NIM compared to the 23.5% that we posted in the second quarter. So yes, we hope and we believe that the NIM for the fourth quarter is going to be more similar than the one that we posted in the second quarter. Going forward, we expect in 2026 NIMs to be in the area of 20%, so should be slightly below the average that we are having up to now, that is 21.6% for the first 9 months of 2025. And we believe that the net interest income should be growing slightly above the 35% that we are going to grow in terms of real loan growth that I commented before. In terms of the NPLs, as I mentioned, yes, we could see some of more peak on the fourth Q, and that is going to bring additional provisioning for the moment. We expect these levels to be similar than the one that we posted in the third quarter. Going forward, as I mentioned, the cost of risk should be more in the area of 5% in 2026. And basically, we should be -- or sorry, we have been taking measures since the last part of the first quarter, beginning of the second quarter of 2025, where we became more restrictive in terms of the credit lines on -- basically on consumers. But basically, as we saw, the main consequence of the deterioration of the delinquency rate across the board in the Argentine banking sector was basically the increase in the real interest rates that we saw in the second and third quarter. So now that we are seeing real interest rate more slightly positive. And going forward, we believe that this trend will be maintained. We think that the behavior of the portfolio is going to become a bit more normal. But of course, you have to take into consideration that we grew our loan book 69% in real terms. As of the third quarter of '25, we expect to grow another 35% in real terms in 2026. So we maybe we should accustom to see the past due loans ratio in other levels, I would say, between 2%, 2.5% or maybe more than that compared to the ratio that we were accustomed to see in the Argentine banks when banks didn't grow their loan book as happened in the last maybe 3, 4 years. So now we have to move and to have to see these ratios more in the area of mid-2s with the level of real growth in loans that we are forecasting going forward.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Tito Labarta with Goldman Sachs.

Daer Labarta

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I guess a couple of follow-ups. Jorge, are you able to quantify how much additional expenses were related to those early retirement plans you mentioned, just to think about how much of that should go away in 4Q? And then second question, I guess, on the market-related income, which you mentioned was negatively impacted by the bonds and the government losses on the government bond. Do you expect that to sort of reverse in 4Q as things kind of normalize just to get a sense of the magnitude that can maybe improve in 4Q as well?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

In terms of the expenses that we commented there are the ARS 23.5 million that we posted in the expenses line that we explained in the press release, approximately 18.5% were maybe nonrecurrent in the third quarter. Honestly, it's a bit early to say what we are going to do in the fourth quarter but might happen that some of these could appear here. But again, it's a bit early to comment on that on the fourth quarter. In terms of second question, yes, the bond portfolio taking into consideration that approximately, we have 23% to 25% of our bond portfolio tied to market prices or market-related. So going forward, we expect this to reverse in at least for the moment, in the fourth quarter, we are going to have much better performance in the bond portfolio compared to the one that we had in the third quarter where we saw prices going down a lot.

Daer Labarta

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Okay. No, that's very clear, Jorge. Just could there be additional expenses related to the early retirement plans? Or is that it from last quarter?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Could be. But again, honestly, it's a bit early to comment on that, but could be.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Pedro Offenhenden with Latin Securities.

Pedro Offenhenden

Analyst · Latin Securities.

I wanted to ask what factors could catalyst for the deposit growth on 2026? And how are you seeing liquidity conditions after the elections?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst · Latin Securities.

We're expecting real interest rates to be positive in 2026, similar levels as the one that we are seeing right now. That's why we are forecasting our deposit growth to be in the area of 25% in real terms. This is in relative terms, lower than the rate that we're expecting for loans. But in the case of we did additional funding here, of course, we have a bond portfolio where we can take liquidity. We can issue domestic corporate bonds or bonds on the foreign market. So this is not going to be a problem for the liquidity for Banco Macro. In addition to that, when you look at the liquidity ratios as of today, we have an extremely good liquidity ratios in both dollars and pesos. So going forward, we expect to maintain this performance.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Alonso Aramburú with BTG. Alonso Aramburú: Just wanted to follow up a little bit on asset quality. You mentioned that NPLs should peak October, November. Maybe you can comment on what you're seeing in new vintages. You saw some deterioration in commercial, some a little bit more in consumer. So what are you seeing lately that gives you this confidence that the peak is now? And when you talk about margins, maybe a little bit longer term, you mentioned 20% ROE 2027 onwards, what sort of margins, what sort of NIMs do you see then, right? You mentioned 20% next year? Is that in the mid-teens? I mean, where do you see them?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

Yes, in terms of NPLs, what we are seeing in our vintages is that there is a stop in the deterioration trend, and we're seeing some stability, and we expect this to become better or improve in the next month or so. So that's why we are expecting to see this kind of a peak maybe early in the fourth quarter. Honestly, at the end of the fourth quarter, we really, for the moment, don't know which is the level of provision that we are going to post. That's why we are supposing that should be in the area of the one that we posted in the third quarter. But we are positive on the trend on the vintages in the next couple of months, and this is going to help, and that's why we commented that the peak should be between October, November. In terms of NIMs going forward, for sure, little by little, we are going to see a decline in the NIMs. Honestly, for 2027 should be in the area of mid-teens. And of course, 2028 onwards, we should be approaching to the low 10s. That is maybe the movie that we are seeing going forward for the Argentine banking sector, and we expect the volume growth to outpace the decline in margins.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Nicolas Riva with Bank of America.

Nicolas Riva

Analyst · Bank of America.

Jorge, I have a question regarding next year, the maturity of your 2026 bond, the $400 million. I understand it counts very little for capital treatment, I think, only 20% maybe. But I wanted to ask if the plan -- given that it's a large size in dollars, $400 million, if the plan would be to replace those dollars and probably do like a senior bond issuance of a similar size? Or what would be the plan regarding those $400 million?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst · Bank of America.

Yes, this bond is maturing at the end of November 2026. So we still have almost 12 months to figure out what to do. Honestly, we have many options on the table. We understand that markets are pretty positive on Argentina. We have to figure out our plan for future growth in U.S. dollar loans. And depending on all those -- on these assumptions and what happened in by mid-2026, we are going to make a decision whether to cancel it, to roll it to maybe issue another senior bond instead of subordinated. So again, many options on the table. Still, we do not have decided what to do.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Flores with Citi.

Brian Flores

Analyst · Citi.

Thank you very much for the opportunity to make a quick follow-up. Jorge, was just running here some back of the envelope math on your comments on ROE. I just wanted to check if what I am seeing here makes sense. You mentioned the 8% level of ROE -- real ROE for 2025 is achievable, right? You're not changing the guidance. But just looking at the run rate, it seems like the fourth quarter would need to be higher than the complete run rate of the first 9 months of the year. So I just wanted to check if, I don't know, there is something one-off that could really help results or if just it's a big spike in volume. Just wanted to understand if this is making sense or I'm missing something here in terms of what could really help the fourth quarter results to achieve the mentioned guidance?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst · Citi.

Well, first of all, the forecast is area 8%. Second, if you assume that we are going to post in the fourth quarter results similar than the one that we posted in the second quarter, we are going to be very close to the 8%. So for the moment, we are maintaining that. We expect, again, recovery in the bond portfolio, increasing in loan volumes and improvement on the NIMs. So these are the main reasons why we're expecting a much better fourth quarter. So we should be very close to the 8%. So that's the idea why we are maintaining the forecast for 2025 ROE.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from [ George Birch Renardson with Oda ]. What is the average age of your workforce?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

Honestly, I have to check that. It's not an easy question. I have to check the data from Human Resources, the first time I received this question. But let me check it. And if you don't mind, I can get back to George later, please.

Operator

Operator

Great. Next question from Marcos Serú with Allaria. What caused the ARS 28 billion loss on foreign exchange?

Jorge Francisco Scarinci

Analyst

I mean the ARS 28 billion loss in the -- when you look at the complete income on FX, it is -- we got a positive result of almost ARS 9.5 billion. This is a result on a combination of that we -- of the bank was sold in spot FX and the increase in the FX impacted on a loss in that position. However, also the bank was long in futures, and that resulted in a positive result because also futures increased in the third quarter. So the net-net was a positive income of ARS 9.5 billion in the quarter.

Operator

Operator

There are no more further questions at this time. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now turn over to Mr. Nicolas Torres for final considerations.

Nicolas Torres

Analyst

Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect, and have a nice day.