Jeffrey D. Capello
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thanks, Hank. Let me begin by providing some overall perspective on the quarter. Despite global economic and end market conditions that continue to be very challenging, we generated adjusted earnings per share of $0.13, within our guidance range of $0.13 to $0.16 and in line with Street consensus, driven by continued strong attention to cost control. Once again, we also generated strong operating cash flow which allowed us to repurchase another 52 million shares in the quarter. Let me now move to the detailed review of the quarter to discuss the operating results and highlight the progress being made. Consolidated revenue for the fourth quarter was $1,848,000,000 and represents a decrease of 8% on a reported basis and a decrease of 5% in constant currency compared to the fourth quarter last year, excluding the negative impact of the Neurovascular divestiture, which negatively impacted revenue by 300 basis points. The actual tailwind from foreign exchange was $9 million, less than the $18 million assumed in our fourth quarter guidance range. At this point, I'll move on to address our sales results and drivers for our businesses. Worldwide DES revenue came in at $356 million, which included an $8 million negative impact from the sales returns reserve relating to the early U.S. approval of PROMUS Element Plus. Excluding the impact of the sales returns reserve, this represents a constant currency decrease of 4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. Our worldwide DES revenue included $101 million for TAXUS and TAXUS Element, $136 million for PROMUS and $119 million for PROMUS Element. We once again held clear worldwide DES market share leadership during the fourth quarter, with an estimated global share of 34%, which we estimate to be a full 400 basis points higher than our nearest competitor. These figures exclude the negative impact of the PROMUS Element Plus reserve in the U.S. With the continued strong customer adoption of our element platform, now including PROMUS Element Plus in the U.S., the expected launch of PROMUS Element in Japan and building momentum in India and China, we are focused on growing our worldwide market share leadership going forward. U.S. DES revenue was $168 million, including the $8 million negative impact of the PROMUS sales returns reserve. Excluding the impact of this reserve, U.S. DES sales declined 7% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. The revenue shortfall compared to our Q4 guidance was primarily driven by some continued softness in PCI volumes. The launch of PROMUS Element Plus has been extremely well received in the U.S. marketplace. In particular, physicians have remarked on the product's outstanding deliverability, conformability and the improved visibility of the platinum chromium alloy. Our PROMUS Element sales began exceeding our PROMUS sales in the U.S. a few weeks ago, and we expect full conversion and a return to 100% self-manufactured DES margins in the U.S. this year. U.S. DES revenue in the quarter included $69 million TAXUS and TAXUS Element, $89 million of PROMUS and $10 million of PROMUS Element Plus. Excluding the impact of the PROMUS sales returns reserve, we estimated that our U.S. DES share was 47%, which was an increase of 100 basis points compared to Q4 last year, off of the strong ION and early PROMUS Element Plus launches. We continued to maintain drug-eluting stent market share leadership in a competitive U.S. market with an estimated 800 basis points more market share than our nearest competitor. During Q4, we experienced an improvement in year-over-year ASP erosion to down mid single digits compared to the high single digits we've seen in recent quarters. Although we believe it's a little too early to tell whether this will continue, we are encouraged by this improvement and expect to leverage the unique value proposition that the differentiating features of the PROMUS Element now allows us to bring to the market. International DES sales of $188 million represented a decrease of 1% in constant currency compared to Q4 last year, due largely to continued pricing pressures. Q4 revenue included $32 million in TAXUS and TAXUS Element, $47 million in PROMUS and $109 million in PROMUS Element sales. The rollout of our element platform continues to do very well internationally, and we are starting to see some contribution from the launch of our element DES platform in emerging markets, primarily India and Brazil. We expect this to accelerate in 2012 as we anticipate gaining additional important pricing approvals in India and expanding the recent launch of PROMUS Element in China. Worldwide CRM revenue was $482 million in the fourth quarter, representing a constant currency decrease of 15% compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. We estimate that our worldwide CRM share was down slightly on a sequential basis at just over 18%. In the U.S., CRM revenue of $278 million represented a 20% decrease from the prior year quarter. Worldwide defib sales were $348 million in Q4, which was down 18% in constant currency from Q4 2010. In the U.S., defib sales were $214 million. This was down 21% compared to Q4 last year due primarily to the continued year-over-year market declines, as well as replacement headwinds in our business. Given the earlier-than-expected approval of our new line of ICDs and CRT-Ds, we purposely managed to lower book sales in the fourth quarter to minimize customer inventory of COGNIS and TELIGEN as we prepare to aggressively roll out the new products in Q1. The U.S. defib market appears to be showing some signs of stabilization. However, despite these encouraging signs, a number of factors are still at play and visibility remains very limited. As a result, we expect it will take another quarter or 2 to confirm whether the market has truly bottomed out. We believe that our de novo share in the U.S. has remained stable over the last several quarters and are optimistic that our share outlook will improve further as we continue the launch of PUNCTUA, ENERGEN and INCEPTA in the U.S. International CRM sales of $204 million were down 7% in constant currency compared to the prior year quarter despite a 3% constant currency increase in international pacer revenue off of continued strong double-digit growth in Japan and intercontinental. International defib sales of $134 million represented a 12% decrease in constant currency from Q4 last year. While international defib was below our expectation from the quarter, we are launching new products in many countries outside the U.S. and expect improved performance as we move through the year. Our worldwide Peripheral Interventions business continued on its recent growth trajectory and was up 6% in constant currency in Q4, with 1% growth in the U.S. and 10% constant currency growth internationally. We continue to make excellent progress driven by a rejuvenated pipeline as all 3 PI franchises grew sales in the quarter on the strength of multiple products, including the Epic self-expanding stent, the Carotid WALLSTENT in Japan and our Mustang and Coyote PTA balloon and dilatation catheters. In addition to these new products, we have a half-dozen more in 2012 we expect to support continued growth in this business. Worldwide non-stent Interventional Cardiology was down 8% in constant currency. Consistent with recent periods, this decline was largely attributable to some procedural softness, share declines in IVUS and continued price erosion in PTCA balloons. As we progressed through 2012, we expect to see some improvement in vascular access, balloons and IVUS results due to planned new product launches. Worldwide Electrophysiology was flat in constant currency. During the quarter, we experienced continued softness in the small tip market and a flat market in the large tip business. However, we did see growth in Inter Cardiac Echo or ICE capital and diagnostic product categories in the quarter. Sales of the recently released Blazer Open-Irrigated Catheter continued to ramp in Europe. As we've previously stated, this launch is a significant step in the execution of our global AFib strategy. On a worldwide basis, our Endoscopy business continued to have solid growth, with sales up 6% in constant currency in the fourth quarter. Growth in the U.S. was 4%, while our international sales grew 8% in constant currency with strength across all geographic regions, driven by continued strong new product introductions, expanded indications and increased adoption of our single-use products. This performance was led by strength in our biliary device franchise, supported by continued growth in the Advanix Biliary Plastic Stent for the treatment of biliary structures, our Metal Stent franchise led by our WallFlex Biliary RX Fully Covered Stent and our Hemostasis franchise on a continued adoption and utilization of a Resolution Clip for GI bleeding. In constant currency, our Urology/Women's Health business declined 1% on a worldwide basis, but was up 8% internationally. The Urology business maintained its leadership position and delivered 4% worldwide constant currency growth, driven by an 8% increase in our international core stone management business. The Women's Health business declined 8% on a worldwide constant currency basis as continued procedure -- pressures on electro procedures due to the weak macroeconomic environment and the recent FDA public health notice update on the use of uro/gynecologic surgical mesh for pelvic organ prolapse more than offset strong double-digit growth of our next-generation Genesys HTA System for the treatment of abnormal uterine bleeding. Outside of the U.S., our international Women's Health business continued to experience good growth and was up 13% in constant currency, driven by new product introductions, increased sales investments and the penetration of new therapies. In Neuromodulation, we grew our worldwide business 6% in constant currency during the fourth quarter despite continued weakness in macroeconomic conditions. The growth was driven by our differentiated product portfolio and strong commercial execution strategies. Let me now briefly address full-year 2011 revenue. On a reported basis, consolidated 2011 revenue was $7,622,000,000, which represents a 2% decrease from the prior year on a reported basis. In constant currency and excluding the impact of the Neurovascular divestiture and the ship hold, sales decreased 4% compared to 2010, driven largely by the decline in U.S. and euro market. For the full year, foreign currency positively impacted reported full-year sales growth by approximately 260 basis points or about $204 million. Moving on from sales. Adjusted gross profit margin for the quarter was 64.8% or 280 basis points lower than Q4 2010. In the quarter, margins were negatively impacted by the Neurovascular divestiture, pricing pressure and inventory charge related to the U.S. launch of PROMUS Element and unfavorable foreign exchange, somewhat offset by the positive impact of manufacturing efficiencies and a continued mix shift towards self-manufactured product in DES. For the full-year 2011, adjusted gross profit margin was 65.7%. Adjusted SG&A expenses were $620 million or 33.5% of sales. This compares to $677 million in the fourth quarter of 2010. The decrease was primarily due to the divestiture of the Neurovascular business and the benefit of expense discipline and the recent restructuring activities, partially offset by higher spending on strategic growth initiatives, primarily in emerging markets and costs relating to recently acquired businesses. For the full-year 2011, adjusted SG&A expenses were $2,478,000,000 or 32.5% of sales. Adjusted research and development expenses were $230 million for the fourth quarter or 12.4% of sales. This compares to $225 million in the fourth quarter of 2010. R&D spending was relatively flat as lower expenses due to the Neurovascular divestiture were offset by costs relating to recently acquired businesses. For the full-year 2011, adjusted R&D expenses was $895 million or 11.7% of sales. Royalty expense was $33 million or 1.8% of sales for the quarter compared to $37 million in Q4 of last year. For the full-year 2011, royalty expense was $172 million or 2.3% of sales. On an adjusted basis, pretax operating income was $315 million or 17% of sales, down 370 basis points from Q4 2010. As a percentage of sales, the decrease in adjusted operating income was due to lower gross margins and the impact of lower sales on operating expenses. GAAP operating income, which includes GAAP to adjusted items that had a negative effect of $145 million on a pretax basis, was $170 million in Q4. Now I'll move on to Other Income expense. Interest expense was $72 million in the fourth quarter, which was $35 million lower than in Q4 2010, primarily due to substantial debt repayment since December 2010, and a $15 million accelerated interest charge which occurred in Q4 2010 related to the prepayment of our June 2011 bonds. Our average interest expense rate in Q4 2011 was 5.9% or about 50 basis points lower than Q4 2010, primarily due to the prepayment of our bank term loan during the first half of 2011, which had a lower average interest rate than our public bonds. 2011 interest expense was $281 million, which was $112 million lower than in 2010, primarily due to the debt repayment and accelerated interest charge I just mentioned, as well as a benefit from interest rate swaps executed on some of our public debt in 2011. Our adjusted tax rate for the fourth quarter was consistent with our previously forecasted Q4 rate of around 20%. During the quarter, we recognized a $24 million benefit from discrete tax items relating to our operating businesses. This benefit was offset by a slightly higher than anticipated full-year operational tax rate of 19.3% due to the timing and geographic mix of sales generated under new product launches. For the full year, our tax rate was 12.2% on an adjusted basis and 31.3% on a reported GAAP basis. Fourth quarter EPS was $0.13 on adjusted basis and $0.07 on a GAAP basis, both of which were within our respective guidance ranges despite the fact that the negative EPS impact of inventory charges of approximately $42 million or $0.02 related to the earlier-than-expected U.S. launch of PROMUS Element Plus were not included in that guidance. GAAP EPS for the fourth quarter included $0.01 of acquisition-related net credits, $0.01 of divestiture-related net credits, $0.01 of restructuring-related costs and $0.02 of litigation-related charges, as well as the normal $0.05 of amortization expense. Stock compensation was $32 million in the fourth quarter, and all per share calculations were computed using approximately 1.5 billion shares outstanding. And the end of 2011, we had approximately $1.45 billion shares outstanding. For the full year, we reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.67 per share. This included a total of $0.12 of net onetime benefits. On a reported GAAP basis, 2011 EPS was $0.29. GAAP earnings per share for 2011 included $0.47 per share of goodwill and intangible asset impairment charges, $0.02 per share of acquisition-related net credits, $0.35 per share of divestiture-related net credits, $0.06 per share of restructuring-related costs, $0.02 per share of litigation-related charges, $0.02 of discrete tax benefits and amortization expense of $0.22 per share. Moving on to the balance sheet, DSO of 62 days was up 1 day compared to the fourth quarter 2010 due to weakness in EMEA, partially offset by strong U.S. collections. Days inventory on hand was 130 days in Q4, which was 1 day the higher than the prior year quarter. Higher inventory to support new product leases was partially offset by the benefit of inventory reductions attributable to the Neurovascular divestiture and finished goods reduction programs. Adjusted operating cash flow was $374 million, including the receipt of $76 million from Abbott in the quarter in settlement of our outstanding PROMUS cost adjustments in the U.S. This compares to $377 million in Q4 last year. On a reported GAAP basis, operating cash flow was $349 million compared to $449 million in Q4 2010. For 2011, adjusted operating cash flow was $1.45 billion, which is $377 million lower than 2010, primarily due to lower tax refunds and lower operating profit, partially offset by lower interest rate payments as a result of our recent deleveraging, the benefit from the termination of our fixed to floating rate interest rate swaps on our public bonds and the receipt of the settlement payment from Abbott in 2011. On a reported GAAP basis, operating cash flow was approximately $1 billion or $682 million higher than 2010. Capital expenditures were $81 million in the fourth quarter. For the full year, capital expenditures were $304 million or $32 million higher than 2010, primarily due to the ongoing automation of our largest distribution center and increasing manufacturing capacity for the launch of PROMUS Element in the U.S. and Japan. Based on the above, adjusted free cash flow was $293 million in Q4 and $1.27 billion for the full-year 2011. On a reported GAAP basis, free cash flow was $269 million in Q4 and $704 million for the full year. As I mentioned earlier, we repurchased 52 million shares or over 3% of the outstanding common stock of the company for approximately $300 million in the fourth quarter. At a current stock price, we estimate we have over $700 million of capacity remaining in our current stock repurchase program. We continue to believe that our stock price is undervalued and currently expect to use approximately 1/4 of our free cash flow to repurchase shares in 2012 subject to applicable law, market conditions, our stock price, business development opportunities and other factors. We remain confident that we can balance our priorities from investing in growth and returning capital to shareholders, all while improving our investment-grade metrics on the strength of solid cash flows. Let me now briefly provide some perspective on our outlook and walk you through our guidance for first quarter and full-year 2012. As we enter 2012, we continue to face headwinds and limited visibility in several of our markets, most notably CRM [indiscernible] and we plan to continue to invest in emerging markets and other targeted areas. However, we also expect to start seeing an increasing level of benefits from several key components of our $650 million to $750 million in cost saving and profit enhancing opportunities as we progress throughout the year. Having considered those factors, we estimate that consolidated 2012 sales will be between $7.3 billion and $7.7 billion. Assuming that current foreign exchange rates hold constant, we expect full-year headwind from FX to be approximately $86 million. On a constant currency basis, consolidated 2012 sales should be in the range of up 2% to down 3%. The upper end of this range assumes that the U.S. defib market does not deteriorate further and therefore year-over-year comparisons improve progressively through the year. We expect our adjusted gross margin for the year to be between 66.5% and 67.5%. Although we expect to continue to see downward pricing pressure, we expect this headwind to be more than offset by lower costs due to our anticipated conversion from PROMUS to PROMUS Element in the U.S. and Japan, as well as our Plant Network Optimization and manufacturing value improvement programs. The impact of these benefits should ramp as we progress through the year. As a result, we expect Q1 margins to be below the full-year range and margin in the second half of the year to be above it. With respect to SG&A expenses, we expect to continue to make investments in emerging markets and additional selling investments in other international markets. In 2012, the cost of these investments should be partially offset by restructuring savings, although we expect most of the benefit of these savings to be realized in the second half of the year. For the full year, we expect adjusted SG&A as a percent of sales to be between 33% and 34%, with much of the increase compared to 2011 due to onetime benefits realized in the prior period. We expect to be near or above the high end of our SG&A guidance range in the first half of 2012 and closer to lower end in the second half for SG&A. We continue to transform our R&D organization and refocus our spending to drive innovation and growth. In 2012, we expect R&D spending to increase slightly and to be between 12% and 12.5% of sales as we ramp spending in several of our priority growth initiative areas. We currently expect Other Income expense to be relatively flat last year. Royalty expense is expected to be slightly lower in 2012 compared to 2011 due to product mix changes involving products that incur royalties at different rates. We expect our adjusted tax rate for the full-year 2012 to be approximately 17%. Excluding any discrete tax items that may arise during the year and assuming that the U.S. R&D tax credit will be retroactively extended for the full-year 2012, we are subject to tax authority examinations in many jurisdictions that are scheduled to include in 2012. The final resolution of these exams may result in additional favorable or unfavorable discrete tax items during the year that are difficult to forecast, but may impact our full-year adjusted tax rate. As a result, we expect adjusted EPS for the full-year 2012 to be in the range of $0.60 to $0.70, and we encourage you to model the midpoint of that range. Excluding any onetime items that may arise, we expect adjusted earnings per share to increase sequentially as we progress through the year, driven by the timing of the cost benefits we expect to realize. On a reported GAAP basis, we expect EPS to be in the range of $0.25 to $0.38. Lastly for 2012, we expect adjusted free cash flow to exceed $1 billion, which we believe to be conservative but appropriate given the uncertain economic environment and prospects of additional austerity, particularly in Europe, CapEx of approximately $300 million, pretax amortization expense of roughly $100 million per quarter and stock comp expense of around $130 million. Now turning to Q1 2012, we expect consolidated revenues to be in the range of $1,825,000,000 to $1.9 billion. If current foreign exchange rates hold constant, the headwind from FX should be approximately $10 million or 50 basis points relative to Q1 2011. On a constant currency basis, we expect consolidated Q1 sales to be in the range of flat to down 5%. On a worldwide basis, we expect DES revenue to be in the range of $365 million to $385 million and CRM revenue to be in the range of $480 million to $510 million in the first quarter. For the first quarter, adjusted earnings per share is expected to be in the range of $0.11 to $0.14 per share on an adjusted basis, and reported GAAP EPS is expected to be in the range of $0.02 to $0.05 per share. That's it for guidance. So with that, I'll turn it back over to Sean who will moderate the Q&A. Sean?