Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Burlington Stores, Inc. First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participant lines are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, David Glick, Senior Vice President, Treasurer, and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate everyone’s participation in today’s conference call to discuss Burlington’s fiscal 2021 first quarter operating results. Our presenters today are Michael O'Sullivan, our Chief Executive Officer; and John Crimmins, Chief Financial Officer. Before I turn the call over to Michael, I would like to inform listeners that this call may not be transcribed, recorded, or broadcast without our expressed permission. A replay of the call will be available until June 3, 2021. We take no responsibility for inaccuracies that may appear in transcripts of this call by third parties. Our remarks and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted today by Burlington Stores. Remarks made on this call concerning future expectations, events, strategies, objectives, trends, or projected financial results are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those that are projected in such forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include those that are described in the company’s 10-K for fiscal 2020 and in other filings with the SEC, all of which are expressly incorporated herein by reference. Please note that the financial results and expectations we discuss today are on a continuing operations basis. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures we discuss today to GAAP measures are included in today’s press release. Now here’s Michael.

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We're going to structure this morning's discussion as follows. First, I will review our first quarter results; second, I will discuss the outlook for the second quarter; and third, I will provide a high level update on the investments that we are making in our merchandizing organization. As you will recall, this is one of the most important initiatives in our Burlington 2.0 full potential strategy. After that, I will hand the call over to John, to walk through the financial details. Then, we will be happy to respond to any questions. As a reminder, the results we discuss for the first quarter of fiscal 2021 are being compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2019. Given the impact of the pandemic last year, our 2020 results do not provide a good basis for comparability. Okay. So, let's talk about our results. In these quarterly earnings calls, we normally focus on comparable store sales growth. In a moment, I will discuss comp sales, but I would like to start my remarks today by highlighting our total sales growth in the first quarter. This includes new stores opened since 2019, as well as comp stores. Of course, total sales, is what really matters when looking at what is happening with market share. In the first quarter of 2021, our total sales grew by 35% versus the first quarter of 2019. We see this as early and direct evidence of our ability to take significant market share of the economy and the consumer emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, I will talk about comp store sales. Comparable store sales in the first quarter increased 20% versus the same period in fiscal 2019. For the quarter to date, through mid-March comp…

Thanks, Michael and good morning, everyone. I will start with a review of the income statement. As a reminder, the results we discuss for the first quarter of fiscal 2021 are being compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2019. For the first quarter, total sales grew 35%, while comparable store sales increased by 20%. The gross margin rate in the first quarter was 43.3%, an increase of 230 basis points versus 2019’s first quarter rate of 41.0%. This improvement was driven by a 340 basis point increase in our merchandise margins, which was attributable primarily to a reduction in markdowns. This merchandise margin increase more than offset a significant increase in freight expense, which was 110 basis points higher than 2019’s first quarter rate. Product sourcing costs, which include the cost of processing goods through our supply chain and buying costs were 141 million in the first quarter of 2021 versus 79 million in the first quarter of 2019, increasing 160 basis points as a percentage of sales. Higher supply chain costs accounted for 140 basis points of this de-leverage. These expense pressures were consistent with what we had seen in Q4, with similar underlying drivers, higher wage rates and wage incentives, inefficiencies caused by safety protocols, and the disruption in the flow of receipts across the global retail supply chain. The balance of de-leverage in product sourcing costs came from higher buying costs. This is consistent with Burlington 2.0 and our strategy of investing in our merchandising capabilities. Adjusted SG&A was 518 million, versus 428 million in 2019, decreasing 260 basis points as a percentage of sales. SG&A leverage was primarily due to leverage in store related costs and marketing expense, as well as overall leverage and fixed costs achieved on a 20% comp. Adjusted EBIT margin increased…

Thank you, John. Let me wrap up my remarks by reiterating the point that I made earlier. The sales opportunity in Q1 was attributable to external factors, especially the federal stimulus checks. But our success in maximizing our share of this opportunity was driven by our own strong execution of our Burlington 2.0 strategy. This execution was clear across buying, planning, supply chain stores, marketing, and all areas of the company. So, let me finish by [thanking everyone] at Burlington for such a strong all around team performance. With that, I will turn it over to the operator for your questions. Operator?

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Matthew Boss from JPMorgan.

Great thanks, and congrats on the material momentum. So, first for Michael. So, if we think about the second quarter here straight with relative comp performance well ahead of peers, is it fair to take this as a sign that Burlington 2.0 is working? And if so, should we expect this level of relative outperformance to continue as we look forward?

Well, good morning, Matt. Nice to hear from you. Thank you for asking that question. You know, I’m going to focus my answer on our performance rather than relative performance. Of course, we care about how we compare versus other retailers. Of course, we do, but we don't know what is going on in other companies. And of course, we have no control over what they do. The only thing that we control is our own performance. So with that said, let me talk about Burlington 2.0. As you know, we started telling the story of Burlington 2.0 back in February or March of 2020, which obviously was great timing, but despite the pandemic, we were able to push forward with the strategy throughout last year. You know, it's gratifying that in the last couple of quarters, we've started to see some of the early benefits. You know, it feels like we've been telling the story. And now it's really nice to be delivering some strong results to go along with it. As a reminder, the core premise of Burlington 2.0 is that we can be more off price, more flexible, and more responsive to the trend. And that by doing this, that we'll be able to drive significantly improved sales and profitability. Maybe what I should do is just take a few minutes to peel the onion a little bit and describe what that flexibility and responsiveness looked like across the company in Q1. I'll start with the merchandising team. In the first quarter, under Jennifer Vecchio’s leadership, our merchants massively shifted the assortment from where it had been in 2019. Remember, that's what we're comparing ourselves against 2019. They did that based upon what the customer has been telling us and they chased into the hottest categories and…

Great. And then maybe as a follow up for John, in the prepared remarks you mentioned a worsening in industry-wide supply chain and freight issues, do you now regard these higher expenses as permanent or should we think of them as transitory? And how do you think they might affect your long-term margin potential?

Yeah. Good morning, Matt. Thanks for your question. Obviously, a complicated situation. Earlier this year, we thought or maybe we hoped that some of the industry-wide supply chain issues would have started to settle down by now, but that clearly hasn't happened. In fact, the whole global supply chain situation seems to have gotten maybe even a little bit worse. There are really three key areas where the situation impacts us the most. I'll start with ocean freight as the first one. You've heard from everyone, there are significant capacity issues and delays with imports, especially shipments going through – coming into the West Coast ports. The demand for ocean freight is far exceeding the supply right now, and it's significantly driven up freight rates. At Burlington, we don't directly import a lot of merchandise ourselves, but the problem is that a lot of what we sell is imported, not by us, but by our vendors. So, the higher rates do affect us both the small part of our business where we import the product that we sell in the product that's imported by our vendors. These higher ocean freight costs end up hurting our merch margin. Second part where we have exposure is on domestic freights. It continues to be significant congestion in domestic freight networks, all modes of transportation. This congestion is affecting both the speed that we're able to move merchandise along with the cost. And the third area where we're impacted is in supply chain, particularly supply chain wages. In the areas of our country where our distribution facilities are located, we've seen some significant labor shortages. We've talked about this previously. Starting late last summer, we began to aggressively raise wages and wage incentives to track and to retain the workers that we need. That's…

That's great color. Congrats on the performance, guys.

Thanks Matt.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ike Boruchow from Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

Hey, good morning, everyone. So, two questions. One for Michael and follow-up for John. So, Michael, in your comments, you mentioned some of the external drivers of the Q1 comp performance, can you just give some more color on these? In particular, I'm curious about how much you think the stimulus checks may have helped or been worth to the trend? And then lastly, can you give any insight on the month to date trend in May, perhaps?

Sure. Good morning, Ike. On the first part of your question, the drivers of our comp growth in Q1, maybe the – I think the best place to start is probably by going back to mid-March. At that point, our quarter to date comp was running up mid-single-digit. From that point on, the trend really accelerated. Our average comp growth for the remainder of the quarter, as I mentioned in my remarks was in excess of 30%. The biggest spike, as you'd expect, came in late March. And then the trend started to cool off in April. It held up pretty well. But obviously it cooled off after that spike in late March. Now, we think there were a few factors that drove that sales trend. Most significant by far were the federal stimulus checks. During March, the government published data every day, showing the value of checks that were sent out in the previous day. So, it was not difficult for any retailer to correlate that data with their own sales trend. You know, our own modeling suggests that those checks were worth 10 percentage points to 15 percentage points of comp store sales growth in Q1. Now, of course, our overall comp growth actualized at 20%. So, we think the remaining 5 points to 10 points of comp is explainable from two other factors, two other sets of factors. Firstly, obviously, the pace of the vaccine rollout accelerated during the quarter, and somewhat related to that, we think that there was some pent up demand that helped drive the trend, as consumers saw a path whereby their lives might start to return to normal. It's hard to quantify the impact of those factors, but we believe that they helped sustain our comp trend through April and even into May. And I'm going to talk about the main month to date trend in a moment. The other important factor with our own performance, I think that we have to give ourselves some credit here or our comp growth in Q1, our strong execution in the quarter really helped to maximize our share of the sales opportunity. That's a good segue, I think, to the second part of your question about the month to date trends in May. As a reminder, our baseline comp plan for Q2 is 10%. And at this point, obviously, we're 3.5 weeks into May. Our comp sales trend is running ahead of this baseline. So that gives us confidence in our Q2 baseline of 10%. So, let me finish up as I usually do by saying that we are ready to taste the sales trends, whatever it turns out to be or to pull back, depending upon how things play out, just as we get in Q1.

Got it. Quick follow up for John, if I may? Just a number of other retailers and off-prices have talked about the COVID related costs as a big source of margin leverage and strong sales; I don't think I heard you even mentioned these. I'm just kind of wondering how those have affected your margins. Are you seeing much less of an effect than others as why or why not would that be, just any color would be great there?

Yeah, Ike, thanks. Good question and good morning, by the way. Yeah, so I can't really speak to other retailers, but happy to add a little more color around how we think about our COVID costs. So, let's look backwards first, as you know, when we talked about the third and fourth quarter last year, we shared that we had COVID costs of $20 million in Q3, and $39 million in Q4. In the $39 million in Q4 included the significant full-year of thank you bonus for our non-exempt associates. So, I think what causes some confusion comparing to others is, we've got a kind of narrow definition, I think, for our COVID costs. We've included only what we see as the direct costs. So that means we include what we spend on personal protective equipment, on cleaning supplies, and incremental cleaning, and we include the cost of our front door ambassadors. Of course, there are many other costs that have been indirectly impacted by the pandemic. But we don't include them in this bucket that we use to collect what we're calling COVID costs. Back at the end of the fourth quarter, we said, we were expecting quarterly COVID costs to be similar to the $20 million we had in Q3 for at least the first couple of quarters of 2021 or until the pandemic was going to be behind us. We're still continuing with the same level of safety and cleaning protocols that we had in place for 2020, but our COVID costs for Q1 were only about $14 million. So, let me explain that. We significantly overbought PPE, and cleaning supplies during 2020. So we were able to spend much less on replenishing those supplies during the first quarter. We're still prioritizing the safety and comfort of our customers and associates and are continuing with all of our safety protocols. And we'll keep doing that until it's clear that they're no longer needed.

Super helpful. Thanks, Michael. Thanks, John, and thanks, David.

Thanks, Ike.

Thanks, Ike.

Thank you. Our next question comes from a line of Lorraine Hutchinson from Bank of America Hutchinson. Your line is now open.

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. John, you just delivered significant operating margin expansion in the first quarter. Can you give us a little more color as to why you'd expect operating margins to still deliver 20 basis points to 30 basis points if you're doing a 7 comp for the year, and then also maybe help us understand the extra pressure in the second quarter operating margin that you called out?

Yeah, good morning Lorraine. Thanks. Good question or questions there. First, let me start off by just saying that, you know, obviously, we're really pleased with our operating margin performance in the first quarter, but it was just so outstanding that we – and we have a bunch of unique factors that we wouldn't expect that kind of sales performance for the second quarter or the balance of the year. You know, it was the 20% comp and the 35% sales growth that drove the [360 basis point] operating margin improvement. About two-thirds of the improvement was from gross margin and the other third from expense leverage. And all this was despite 110 basis point headwind in freight and 160 basis point headwind in product sourcing costs, but again, both the gross margin expansion and the SG&A leverage, it was really driven by the exceptional comp sales performance. So, as we've said earlier in my remarks, we're not planning for sales performance to be anything like we saw in the first quarter. We're planning for approximately 10%, up in Q2 comp sales and flattish for Q3 and Q4. These comp baseline planning assumptions would deliver a four year comp performance of about 7% when you factor them in with our Q1 sales. So, back in March, we've said that we would expect to see operating margin expansion began at about a six comp or slightly higher comp for this year. Our new outlook of 20 bips to 30 bips of de-leverage at the 7% comp includes the benefits of the strong flow through we saw in the first quarter. But it's more than offset by the increases we now expect in trade and supply chain costs for the balance of the year. And by some extents timing, that will affect…

Thanks. And then if I could just ask a follow up question on a different topic. How does the redemption of the high yield notes fit into your forward looking views on the capital structure? And then any thoughts on when we should expect the share repurchase to resume?

Hi, Lorraine, this is David, I'll be happy to take that question. First, I'd say that, you know, our overarching philosophy is to maintain, you know, a conservative and flexible balance sheet. You know, we feel really good about the ongoing recovery and our sales and EBITDA, you know, at the end of the first quarter Lorraine we had over 1.5 billion of cash on the balance sheet. So, now we believe that, you know the combination of our business momentum and strong liquidity positions us well to start to address some of our highest cost debt that we issued last April. And just as a reminder, you know, we've stated in prior quarters that coming out of the pandemic our priority for excess cash is to reduce our gross leverage. And to address your question around share repurchases, you know, look we've analyzed all of our potential uses of our excess cash. And, you know, keeping in mind that conservative balance sheet philosophy, we just think it makes sense to redeem our high yield notes first, which we announced this morning. And then we reassess the operating environment before we take more cash off our balance sheet to either pay down more debt or return excess cash to shareholders through share repurchases. So, you know really the first step is to reduce our gross debt before we consider when to reserve share repurchases. We'd really like to see really a more sustained, positive trend and our sales and EBITDA growth before we go beyond redeeming the high-yield notes.

Thank you.

Thanks, Lorraine.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Kernan of Cowen. Your line is now open.

Good morning Michael, John, and David. I also have two questions both are on Burlington 2.0. First is for Michael and then a follow-up for John. Michael you now have two quarters in a row of comps and margins well above expectations. If you take a step back, would you say that you're further along with Burlington 2.0 than you initially expect it to be at this point? And are there any details on your major Burlington 2.0 initiatives? What are the big things that are still left on the table?

Good morning, John. Thank you for the question. I think the easiest way to answer that question is probably to separate out our Burlington 2.0 priorities and initiatives into a couple of major buckets. Firstly, there are things that we're doing, changes that we're making, and we have been making that are already affecting the business and already driving performance. So, I'll talk about those in a moment. And then secondly, there are other things that we're doing and investments that we're making that by design will take time to really, really impact the business. So, first bucket includes a number of very important changes and priorities, including a much greater focus on value, more conservative planning to set up a stronger chase, tighter control of liquidity, lower inventory levels, tighter control of expenses, more flexible operating processes. And these are all things that we started doing last year. And I think they've really helped to drive that performance over the last couple of quarters. Now to answer your question, are we further along on these areas than I would have anticipated a year ago? I would say, yes, absolutely. We're much further along. It's been very impressive to see how our merchants and our operators have embraced Burlington 2.0 over the past year. Now, that's not to say that we can't get better in all of those areas, we know that we can. There are other changes and improvements that we're planning to make across the business that should make the chase more effective across buying, planning, supply chain, and stores. So that's the first bucket. The second bucket includes changes, priorities, investments, that we're moving [full steam] ahead with, but that will take time to really impact the business. I stress that in many ways, these items will…

Got it. Thank you. John, longer-term gross margin question. When you first launched Burlington 2.0, I think you indicated there might be 100 basis points to 150 basis points of upside in the merch margin over time, really just through faster turns in lower markdowns, Q1 merch margin up 340 basis points, do you think that the opportunity on the merch margin line might be even greater than you first thought?

Thanks, John. Good question. So, a couple things. So, first, I think you have to really put our Q1 gross margin performance into context. You know, both in terms of the history of our first quarters and then, you know, a lot of unique stuff happened in Q1. So, let me talk about the history first. Historically, Q1 hasn't been a good gross margin quarter for us. If you look back to 2019, for example, it was our lowest gross margin quarter of the year, about 80 basis points below are our full-year gross margin. So, you know, why has Q1 historically been a little weak for us? Well, you know, we've usually turned inventory slower in the first quarter. Usually we've carried over some clearance merchandise from the fall, which has a tendency to hurt our transition into the spring. Now, let's take a look at Q1 of 2021. Very unusual to say the least, we put up [a 20 comp], executed incredibly fast sales chase, and increased our inventory turns by nearly 60%, unprecedented improvement, and one that would be very difficult to sustain. So, these extraordinary turns are not something that we would ever plan for. And they were driven by way ahead of planned sales. And back in Q4, we also benefited from chasing ahead of planned sales that helped us to end Q4 with less fall merchandise than we would typically have. So, there was less to markdown in Q1, and was easier to transition quickly to spring. So, that's kind of a long way of saying that we had plenty of room for improvement historically in our first quarter. And we just put up a quarter, that'd be very difficult to replicate due to all the unique circumstances we have this year. Having said all of that, we continue to believe that we still have further room to reduce our comp store inventory levels, which should over time, reduce our markdowns, and drive even more improvements in our merchandise margin. And we would also expect that trade expense over time would normalize and put less pressure on our gross margin in the future. So, let's not extrapolate from one unusual exceptional quarter. We do think we can continue to make progress, but it's going to be really hard to predict that pace until we get into a more normal environment.

All right, thank you.

Thanks, John.

Thanks, John.

Thank you. Our next question comes in the line of Kimberly Greenberger from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Okay, great. Thank you so much. Really fantastic Q1 here. I'm just looking – my question is on new store productivity. There's a huge spread, obviously, 15 point spread here between comp growth and total sales growth. So, it looks to us like new store productivity is coming in, you know, north of 100%. You know, were there some one-time benefits also helping your new store productivity numbers? And if you could sort of parse through the performance there and talk about where you would contemplate new store productivity trending for the year? That would be fantastic. Thanks.

So, Kimberly, this is John. I’ll try to answer that one. So, a couple of things to keep in mind. You know, we're talking about new and non comp stores so that covers, you know, couple years of growth for the stores. And they're all benefiting from the same circumstances, the pent-up demand, the extra cash in customer's pocket, you know, similar to what we saw in our comp sales trend for the quarter. And having said that, we're extremely pleased with our new store performance. You know, they're doing very well against our underwriting assumptions. You know, like any other batch of stores there's some variability across the entire cohort, but overall, we're extremely pleased with the performance of the cohort. I don't know that there's anything unique that I would call out about the new stores. I think, you know, as I said, I think that conditions that are – the circumstances that are driving their performance are pretty much the same things we talked about for our comp store performance during the quarter.

Thanks so much.

Thanks Kimberly.

Thank you. Our last question comes from a line of Michael Binetti from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.

Hey, guys, thanks for taking our question here. Michael, I just want to – I want to ask why not take up the third quarter and fourth quarter sales off this performance? I mean, there's fairly visible stimulus coming later in the year, you obviously got at least your share in the first quarter. I'm just trying to think about what other puts and takes you might have put into the scenarios where you see flat comps in the back half of the year, knowing the stimulus is coming? And then, I guess, you know if we do see an upside sales scenario is, you know, maybe this one for John, but if we do see an upside sales scenario, I think the way you changed your plan for this year, you took the sales up about 500 million and I think EBITDA up about 85 million so about, you know, mid-to-high teens incremental margins. Is that the right way to think about sales upside through the rest of the year, John, if you beat the plan?

Good. Well, good morning, Michael. I'll take the first part of that question. On Q3 and Q4, it's a good question. Yeah, I guess where I would start is just by reiterating that our baseline plan is just a baseline. And right now, Q3, and Q4, are planned flat and that provides our merchants with a plan that they can buy against, and it provides our operators with a starting point for capacities, staffing, and expense planning. That's all we really need now, at this point. That's all our merchants and our operators really need. We know that if the trend picks up or if – actually if the trend remains pretty strong, we can adjust the baseline. We look at the baseline literally every week. So, we can adjust the baseline. We can chase the sales. And I feel very confident that our merchants and our operators have that skill set and can chase the sales as they did in Q1 and before that in Q4. Now, I agree with you. We do see some positive factors on the horizon. You know the continuation of the vaccine rollout. And hopefully that means that life will start to normalize a little bit. In the second – we're already starting to normalize, but will normalize even more in the second half of the year. And then the child tax credits, which I believe will start to be rolled out in late July. You know, anything, typically anything that puts more money in our customers pocket is a good thing. We saw that in Q1. So that can be positive for the back half of the year. You know, the only reason to be wary or cautious is that the country hasn't yet fully recovered from the pandemic. You know, right now the situation is certainly looking better and more positive. But if there's one thing that the past year has taught us is that things can change pretty quickly. So the action implication for us is to plan and manage the business conservatively. And then be ready to chase a stronger trend and at approach has served us pretty well the last couple of quarters.

And then Michael I think you had a bit of a question on the flow through we would think about with incremental sales. Yeah, it's really difficult to project and that's one of the reasons why we kind of stayed away from trying to give any guidance here. You know, one of the elements of the chase is the importance of moving receipts very quickly. And with the volatility we see in the, kind of freight networks and the pressure on global retail supply chain, it's hard to anticipate what might cost us to, you know, to kind of move those receipts quickly enough to feed a trend. So, that may temper the flow through a little bit. It's a variable that we really can't predict right now.

Okay. Thanks a lot, guys and congrats again.

Thanks Michael.

Thanks Michael.

Thank you. At this time, I'm showing no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Michael O'Sullivan for closing remarks.

Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call today. We appreciate your questions and your interest in Burlington stores. We look forward to talking to you again in August to discuss our second quarter results. Meanwhile, [we tend to close] by wishing you all a very, very nice Memorial Day holiday. Thank you.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.