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Caleres, Inc. (CAL)

Q2 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 31, 2023

$13.42

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. And welcome to the Caleres Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Daryl, and I will be your conference coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the prepared remarks. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Logan Bonacorsi, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Logan Bonacorsi

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you for joining our second quarter 2023 earnings call and webcast. A press release with detailed financial tables, as well as our quarterly slide presentation are available at caleres.com. Please be aware today’s discussion contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially due to various risk factors, including, but not limited to, the factors disclosed in the company’s Form 10-K and other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Please refer to today’s press release and our SEC filings for more information on risk factors and other factors, which could impact forward-looking statements. Copies of these reports are available online. In discussing the results of our operations, we will be providing and referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find additional information regarding these non-GAAP financial measures, as well as other views in today’s earnings release and our presentation on the Investors section of our website. The company undertakes no obligation to update any information discussed on this call at any time. Joining me on the call today are Jay Schmidt, President and CEO; and Jack Calandra, Senior Vice President and CFO. We will begin this morning’s call with our prepared remarks, and thereafter, we will be happy to take your questions. I would now like to turn the call over to Jay. Jay?

Jay Schmidt

Analyst

Thank you, Logan, and good morning, everyone. Once again the Caleres team performed at a high level during the second quarter of 2023 delivering strong financial and operational results despite the challenging consumer demand environment. We leveraged our diversified structure, our powerful brands and our enhanced omni capabilities to drive earnings per share above the high end of our guidance range. This gain was achieved even with sales modestly below our initial expectations, because we prioritize profitability and generated strong consolidated operating margins. Our ability to deliver bottomline results in a choppy consumer market demonstrates the desirability of our brands and the success of our efforts to tighten inventory and reduce promotion across our businesses. We have also reduced expenses across the enterprise. These actions have yielded a fundamentally healthier Caleres. Indeed, we believe our diversified model and operational discipline sets us up to drive value in a variety of market conditions. The structural improvements we have implemented over the last several years coupled with our focus on cost control and commitment to our strategic initiatives positions us well for sustainable long-term growth. Now let’s turn to some key highlights in the second quarter. We delivered adjusted earnings per share of $0.98. We grew market share in our lead brands, Sam Edelman, Allen Edmonds, Naturalizer and Vionic. We increased Famous Footwear’s market share in shoe chains. We generated record second quarter gross margins in the Brand Portfolio. We achieved sequential improvement from the first quarter in the year-over-year sales trend at both Famous and Brand Portfolio. We maximized our inventory levels and manage them well, ending the period approximately 14% below 2022. We invested in consumer experience, analytics and marketing areas that are key to accelerate our strategic growth initiatives. We returned approximately $20 million to shareholders via share repurchases…

Jack Calandra

Analyst

Thanks, Jay, and good morning, everyone. We maintained strong financial discipline across the company in the second quarter. This resulted in earnings per share that exceeded the upper end of our guidance and healthy cash flow, which enabled us to reduce debt, invest in our critical growth initiatives and returning cash to shareholders. In today’s call, I will provide additional details on our second quarter performance, discuss the progress we have made on our cost reduction initiatives, update you on our capital allocation plan and priorities, and share our outlook for the third quarter and full year. My comments will be on an adjusted basis. Please see today’s press release for a reconciliation of adjusted results. Starting with Q2. Consolidated sales were $696 million, a 5.8% decrease versus last year. At Famous, sales were down 5.1% and comparable sales were down 4.3%. Sales declines versus last year improved each month of the quarter. Brand Portfolio sales were $301 million, down 7.2% to last year, due to softness in seasonal categories, namely sandals and cautious buying behavior in the wholesale channel. While sales were down, we were able to protect margin with fewer markdowns and allowances. Consolidated gross margin decreased 45 basis points to 45.2%, which reflected an increase in Brand Portfolio gross margin offset by a decrease in famous gross margin. Brand Portfolio gross margin was 41.3%, a 295-basis-point increase versus last year. This gross margin was a record for the second quarter for the segment and was due to higher initial margins, lower ocean freight costs and disciplined inventory management. Famous gross margin was 46.2%, a 273-basis-point decline versus last year. This decline reflects lower initial margins and a more normalized level of clearance, pricing and activity given last year’s clean inventory position. That said, clearance pricing and activity…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first questions come from the line of Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group. Please proceed with your question.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Good morning. Afternoon. Everyone what a busy day so far. Can you talk a little bit about the puts and takes on the gross margin in the back half of the year across both businesses? How you are seeing it and planning as we go into the back half and what you are thinking about in terms of promo versus full price and is there any difference by category? Thank you.

Jack Calandra

Analyst

Yeah. Hi, Dana. This is Jack. Thank you for your question. In terms -- I will take it by business segment. So in terms of Famous, the tailwinds in gross margin as we go into the back half include, I think, the disciplined inventory management that we have demonstrated. We do expect to have fewer days on promotion, but the headwinds there would include lower initial margins and the more normalized level of clearance activity and pricing that I mentioned earlier. For Brand Portfolio, I would say, there’s more tailwinds there than headwinds. The tailwinds there also include the disciplined inventory management that we have demonstrated. But there we have higher initial margins, continued ocean freight savings and a higher contribution of sales from direct-to-consumer, which as you know, is a more profitable business for us in that channel.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Got it. And then as you are thinking about -- just as you went through this back-to-school season, any learnings from back-to-school that can inform for holiday on the merchandising side, what you saw in either portfolio and any thoughts on the wholesale division with Branded Portfolio with some of those orders tightening, what do you see as getting this big to open again or anything you are seeing from the wholesale accounts in particular? Thank you.

Jay Schmidt

Analyst

Okay. So, hi, Dana. This is Jay.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Hi. Hi, Jay.

Jay Schmidt

Analyst

I will start with your Brand Portfolio question. Our ongoing discipline -- disciplined approach to inventory management really helps us to chase these top selling items in season through our speed programs and we have been able to mitigate and navigate kind of some of the shifts in behavior. We saw a lot of positivity on the sneaker trend as we went into second quarter and we are able to actually get enough inventory to make that a meaningful business as we walk into Q3. Our category business includes on flat and loafer as we are seeing really nice progress on that and really good sell-throughs on that, particularly with classic hardware and classics being so strong. And finally, there is some newness in the dress business with swing backs coming in and really particularly on low heels. So we are really focused on getting these right categories and then all the way down to the items to really help move this business back and we still do get reorders from people on these really strong items selling. The conversation is very similar over at Famous Footwear. When we think about it, some of our biggest brands that are working well that we are trying to get back into them. We saw really good strength with our Nike business continues to perform and continue to kids. Our Converse business is very strong, HeyDude is working well for the brand during this period and then some really nice progress with New Balance, which we are excited about and looking to really expand that through as we get into third quarter. So there’s a lot of that going through that we are working on. Clearly, though, when you look at Famous, our kids has been a differentiator and we are seeing that, as we have continued to see outpaced the whole organization by almost 10 points, which is really excited on that delta there and that really is our competitive place. We outpace in the shoe chain channel in that category. We have done a lot of work on kids marketing and then also try on in stores and really seeing some good reaction there as we focus on that business. So that’s really the biggest learning so far that we have seen.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Got it. And then, Jack, nice progress on the revolving credit, the debt paydown. What are you seeing for that going forward? And thank you.

Jack Calandra

Analyst

Yeah. Yes. So, as I mentioned, Dana, we have hit that 1 times debt-to-EBITDA target that we have outlined. I think just given certainly the continued macro uncertainty and consumer demand uncertainty and also just the higher interest rates that we are paying. As I mentioned, the average interest rate we paid in Q2 this year versus last year, I would say, our most recent borrowings now are closer to 7% and so I think those two reasons present a really compelling argument for continuing to pay that down. Obviously, we will get some nice EPS benefit from continuing to reduce that interest expense. As based on our guidance, we have somewhere between $0.34 and $0.38 of interest expense headwind to EPS and so we will continue to focus on that in the near-term. But again, as you know, we bought back shares in the second quarter and so we are always looking to be flexible and opportunistic there and I think the balance sheet that we now have gives us that ability.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Thank you.

Jack Calandra

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Laura Champine with Loop Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Laura Champine

Analyst

Good morning. I have a follow-on question about the Brand Portfolio business. Can you comment on anything of note within the different channels that you sell to on the wholesale side and how you expect that to trend as we head into Q3? Maybe if you can comment on what you are seeing so far this quarter?

Jay Schmidt

Analyst

Yeah. Hi, Laura. It’s Jay. I will -- yeah, on the Brand Portfolio, we are seeing, I think, our -- as we said, our lead brands are continuing to taking share. Consumers are voting towards newness and that’s where we are seeing the prioritization there. We sell in a dynamic way to some of our lead customers. So we sell both on brick-and-mortar upfront, we do a lot of direct-to-consumer online with them and then we do work on a replenishment basis. So our model hasn’t changed. We are continuing to see that demand for newness, but that’s really what we are seeing so far. We did see, obviously, a dynamic shift if you compare it to last year, where we were selling a lot of ankle strap dress sandals and things to go out. We are now seeing a shift more toward, I’d say, very versatile footwear in terms of the flats and other styles, and our customers are continuing to respond to that. But for sure, we are looking at it in a very dynamic mode right now. Lastly, as we said, our direct-to-consumer business on our Brand Portfolio was up nicely in the quarter and we continue to work toward that. So that’s how we are working with everyone, but it does -- it’s a very similar concept, we are just working with our partners in the same way.

Laura Champine

Analyst

I guess I meant more about retail channels, meaning, how is your business with -- how are you using the off-pricers who continue to grow and is there a significant difference in trends at department stores as opposed to specialty? That’s the direction I was hoping to go?

Jay Schmidt

Analyst

Okay. So just to refresh on that, our department store business for Q2 was down a little more than, I would say, other ones in the brick-and-mortar piece. The -- our shoe chain business was up in the quarter, which was nice and then our off-price business is really more of a closeout piece for us right now and so that has not been as big a piece for us. So that’s what I would say for the quarter right now, that’s where we saw in Q2 and we will continue to watch that as we go forward.

Laura Champine

Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Mitch Kummetz with Seaport Research. Please proceed with your question.

Mitch Kummetz

Analyst

Yes. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is on Famous and it does have a few parts. Jay, you mentioned that kids was up, I think, you said 5 points and that was 10 points better than the business as a whole. Can you tell us kind of how the rest of the Famous broke out, maybe casual versus dress versus athletic? And then also on Famous, maybe if you could just take that first.

Jay Schmidt

Analyst

Okay. So for sure, our casual business was better than our performance athletic business, the adult side. As we said, our kids business was up significantly and then the other businesses, which were smaller that we break out was -- that was down, but that was a small piece of the total. And athletics though our LifeStride business was particularly strong and then I think our lifestyle business, I should say, was particularly strong versus the performance piece of it right now. And then finally, Mitch, we did have, as I called out in the beginning, our sandal weakness was really similar across both channels and it was down 11% in Famous and in the Brand Portfolio was down a similar amount in our total shipments.

Mitch Kummetz

Analyst

Okay. And then on the comp, your minus 4.3%, you said that sales declines improved each month. Can you say where you ended the quarter, like, what was comp in July and have you seen continued improvement into August? And then, I guess, lastly, in terms of that improvement both 2Q versus 1Q or even over the course of 2Q, what would you attribute that to? Is some of it an improving macro or is it just more a function of more newness in the product?

Jay Schmidt

Analyst

So, Mitch, our comps did improve as we move through the quarter. May was our worst month, we improved in June and then July significantly improved, too. But when we look at ahead so far, based on what we know, our guidance Famous really reflects really more of this historic trend of where we have been and we do think we will deliver against that trend that we put out there and we have kind of sold everything against that for the -- certainly as we go into third quarter.

Jack Calandra

Analyst

Yeah. I would just…

Mitch Kummetz

Analyst

Okay.

Jack Calandra

Analyst

Mitch…

Mitch Kummetz

Analyst

Yeah.

Jack Calandra

Analyst

Just to add to Jay’s comments. As a reminder, our back-to-school performance last year was a record performance and so some of that comp were up against some decent comps in the Famous business for back-to-school.

Mitch Kummetz

Analyst

Okay. And maybe with that being said, Jack, on the 3Q guide, you said sales down low-single digits. Can you provide any color on how you think about that between Famous and BP and is there any change to your kind of overall outlook for the year between those two businesses? It didn’t sound like a BP was a little slower than you expected in 2Q and I don’t know if that changed how you are thinking about that business as a whole for the year?

Jack Calandra

Analyst

Yeah. Mitch, so we have -- I would say, our base case and our guidance for Famous is basically a continuation of what we saw in Q2. So call it that minus 5%. Obviously, the guidance provides a range and so if Famous does a little bit better, we are towards the higher end of that range and a little bit worse, we would be towards the lower end of that range. So I would say, Famous is pretty well set on what we have seen pretty consistently for the year because if we look at Q2 down 5% and then if you take out March out of Q1, that quarter was also down 5%. So I would say pretty consistent performance and that’s what we have modeled. In the case of Brand Portfolio, that’s where they are up against some really -- we were up against some really tough compares in the first quarter, I mean, in the first half. So in the first half of 2022, our Brand Portfolio business was up 41%, but then in the back half of 2022, only up 7%. And so part of our confidence other than all the operating things that we have talked about in terms of inventory management and things like that, is we are just up against much easier comps going into the back half of this year on Brand Portfolio.

Mitch Kummetz

Analyst

Great. All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Abbie Zvejnieks with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.

Abbie Zvejnieks

Analyst

Great. Thanks so much for taking my question. So just on the inventory, like, how should we be thinking about inventory levels for the balance of the year and then how are you thinking about managing bringing in the newness that’s driving demand versus keeping controlled inventory levels given the uncertain macro?

Jay Schmidt

Analyst

So, Abbie, hi. It’s Jay. Just in -- how we are managing inventory is really, we are kind of setting up a new normal for us and we are really managing to a new inventory turn. So -- and looking at this, we really are driving newness continually, we think the consumer demands it and we are chasing more product to our speed program, which is running at that -- moving towards that 20% of our receipts. So we aren’t really seeing it as any detraction in terms of holding us back right now. And then the last thing I will say is, in particular, in the Brand Portfolio, we had a lot of our product last year show way, way earlier up into second quarter than we had planned. So what you are going to kind of see is a more balanced flow with us through this disciplined management and we will, I think, continue to be able to deliver the newness, but more importantly, chase it quickly and that inventory amounts that we are now working on in turn allow us to really pivot and react more aggressively. And then, Jack, I think, you can share some of the numbers here, too.

Jack Calandra

Analyst

Yeah. Abbie, thanks for the question. Just to add to Jay’s comments, for the back half, we expect to have lower inventory this year versus last year in both the third quarter and the fourth quarter. Now they won’t be down as much as they were in the first half when they were down low-teens, but we expect continued improvement year-over-year in that metric. We are always focused on both the quantity and the quality of inventory and certainly appreciate the importance of maintaining that healthy inventory to sales relationship.

Abbie Zvejnieks

Analyst

Got it. And then just one more on the Brand Portfolio. I guess, like, in this environment, I would assume that your wholesale partners are like that you have a good capability for drop ship. Can you just talk about what you are doing in drop ship and if that increase as a percentage of the business as wholesale orders have tightened? Thanks.

Jay Schmidt

Analyst

Yeah. So we are funding our drop ship fully. There is -- it’s a continued important portion of our business. Most likely, what we are seeing is our wholesale partners continue to want to receive newness in a very timely way so they can react to it, and yes, they are acting more conservatively, but again, reacting more toward the real product that is working. So our model continues as it has been with a very dynamic piece with it with both drop ship and then replenishment being a very important portion of this. And I think it’s going to be similar for us versus how we have operated in Q2 and Q1. So I am not seeing a different shift for that as we go into Q3.

Abbie Zvejnieks

Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Jack Calandra

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Jay Schmidt for any closing comments.

Jay Schmidt

Analyst

Okay. Well, I’d like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. Before we close today, I’d like to thank the talented Caleres team for their hard work and dedication. We remain confident in our ability to create exceptional product to exceed our consumer’s expectations and drive value for our shareholders. We also look forward to providing you with some additional detail around our long-term growth strategies at our upcoming Investor Day in October. So, with that, I’d just like to say have a great holiday and we will talk soon. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today’s teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.