Grant Isaac
Analyst · Stifel. Please go ahead.
Yes, Tim, if I could, I'll jump in. And Ralph, there's always a risk trying to call a turning point, but let me go ahead and try to do it anyway. At the recent WFC conference in Montreal our Vice President of Global Marketing, Lisa Akin, was on a panel, and she made a couple of observations that I think are really important. And if I can point you to a slide and point everybody to a slide, it's Slide 6, in Tim's comments -- or Slide 16 in the investor handout for Q1 of 2025. And what I -- what it feels like is starting to happen in the long-term contracting market for uranium, it is the challenge that's depicted in that slide is really starting to impress upon fuel buyers. So if you look at the left-hand panel, the shaded area is good. Just think of that as if you see a shaded area, that's good. That's the wedge of uncovered requirements. That's the wedge of demand that Tim was referring to. It now goes out to 2045 and it now equals 3.2 billion pounds of uranium that needs to be procured over the next 20 years. That 70% of the requirements over the next 20 years that have not yet been bought and you look to the panel on the right-hand side and you say, well, how worried should we be, you see after a decade of underinvestment due to low prices, and a decade of harvesting inventories and secondary supplies, you see a primary supply stack that's falling over the same period. You see a secondary supply stack that's falling. You layer in some known proposed production, the kind of stuff that's been hyped for many, many years. Well, let's assume it's going to come into the market. And even under the base case demand, you see that red wedge there of 1.3 billion pounds of uranium, we're not sure where it's coming from. And I would just echo the comments that Lisa made on the panel until we see stronger demand in the market until we see utilities calling for that, the investments simply won't be made to fill that red wedge that feels really good to an incumbent uranium producer who has yet to run at full capacity, who hasn't even got its Tier 1 assets at full capacity, let alone the contemplating restarting our Tier 2s. This is why we're patient. This is why we're still in supply discipline because this is an incredibly strong setup.