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Cadeler A/S (CDLR)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 20, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Cadeler's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Presentation. Presenting today are Mikkel Gleerup, Chief Executive Officer; and Peter Brogaard, Chief Financial Officer. Please be reminded that the presenters' remarks today will include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those contemplated. The risks and uncertainties that could cause Cadeler's results to differ materially from today's forward-looking statements include those detailed in Cadeler's annual report on Form 20-F on file with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Any forward-looking statements made this morning are based on assumptions as of today, and Cadeler undertakes no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. This morning's presentation includes both IFRS and certain non-IFRS financial measures. A reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to the nearest IFRS equivalent is provided in Cadeler's annual report. The annual report and today's earnings presentation are available on Cadeler's website at cadeler.com/investor. We ask that you please hold all questions until the completion of the formal remarks. At which time, you will be given instructions for the question and answer session. As a reminder, this call is being recorded today. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. Mikkel Gleerup, you may begin.

Mikkel Gleerup

Management

Thank you very much, and welcome to this Q3 presentation from Cadeler. Thanks for everybody who's dialing in for listening to us today. With me today, I have Peter as normal, and Peter will take you through the financial section of the presentation. So just the standard disclaimer. And we can say that this quarter, the highlights of the third quarter of 2025, we can say that it has been financial performance in line with our expectations. We have, in this quarter, also signed the third full scope foundation T&I contract and also 2 turbine installation T&I contracts. We have delivered 3 of our 4 newbuilds scheduled for delivery in 2025 already. And we have the remaining newbuild, the Wind Mover on track for delivery, and she is delivering current expectation within the next couple of weeks. We have had very strong utilization in the third quarter. We have had 92% utilization. And we believe that, as we have always said that, that is a strong measure of our business, and we are working across the globe in both U.S., in Europe and in Asia. And we are continuing with very strong execution. We have the Wind Ally currently mobilizing for the Hornsea 3 foundation T&I project, and we have the Wind Keeper now here in Denmark at Fayard and also upgrading before she is embarking on her long-term contract with Vestas. In terms of commercial highlights of the third quarter 2025, the vessels have been working out there, and we are starting with the Wind Orca that has been performing work on the He Dreiht project for Vestas. The Wind Osprey has done an O&M campaign for Vestas and are now installing a wind turbine installation project on Baltic Power in Poland. Scylla has continued to work on Revolution…

Peter Hansen

Management

Thank you very much, Mikkel. Yes, financial highlights for Q3. It was a very, very strong quarter that reflects high utilization and cost under control in comparison to last year, of course, we have 3 more vessels in operations, the 2 B Class vessels Wind Peak and Pace and Wind Maker. Revenue was EUR 154.3 million. Equity ratio is still with the more leveraged balance sheet with deliveries and drawdown on our facilities still very solid 47.3%, utilization very high at 92.2%, which is very, very good for the quarter. Market cap EUR 1.4 billion, approximately 3x the guided EBITDA for the year. EBITDA for the quarter, EUR 109.1 million. Cash flow from operation activities, EUR 214 million. And as Mikkel explained, a backlog record high at EUR 2.9 billion, 3 months daily average turnover is EUR 5.4 million. If we look at the P&L for Q3, yes, again, it really reflects that there are more vessels in operations, Wind Peak, Wind Pace, Wind Maker. And it is a picture that we have seen quarter-by-quarter with a very strong results once a vessel goes into operations, our financials take a step up revenue, EUR 154.2 million, and that is due to, of course, the high utilization, but also the additional vessels. Cost of sales under control, EUR 38,000 approximately for the quarter, a little bit up as compared to last year, but also 2 vessels in operations in the U.S. with a little bit of higher OpEx per day, but still below the EUR 14,000 mark per day. SG&A also up due to what we have been communicated for some time now that we are building the organization exactly to what we see now. We have more vessels in operation and also the upcoming foundation projects. EBITDA, as said, is…

Mikkel Gleerup

Management

Thank you, Peter. In terms of commercial outlook for the business, I think what we can say in terms of our view on the market, we get a lot of questions on this and rightfully so. We do see a recalibration. We still see strong momentum, especially in the inner years and in the outer years with a period in between where the momentum is weaker. And what do I mean by that? Let me first talk about the inner years. I think it's fair to say that at the moment, there are several projects out there that don't have an installation solution or an O&M solution at the moment, and they are still looking in the market. In '26 and also in '27, it is becoming increasingly difficult to get a solution and especially if that solution is a solution where it's the same vessel that does everything. Of course, if you're willing to piece meal it together, then you can find a solution still. But this is -- this will be the next step. I think '26, close to impossible at the moment. And in '27, it is becoming more and more something that you have to put together to deliver a full solution to clients. So we are seeing that in the middle year, so the second half of '27 and also in '28, that some of the projects there have been shifting to the right. And that means that there are lower-than-expected utilization in this period. But we are still seeing a significant outbuild in '29 and forward. And as we have just shown the market as well, we have signed a big contract for '29, and we see actually that some developers that would like to secure their capacity for this period, the '29, 2030,…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Martin Huseby Karlsen from DNB.

Martin Karlsen

Analyst

I think you did a pretty good job talking about 2028 being a transition year, but I'm curious to hear a little bit on your confidence level for '29 and '30 seeing higher volumes. Is that related specifically to some events out there? Or is it in general contingent upon more government and political support for offshore wind in Europe?

Mikkel Gleerup

Management

Yes. Thank you, Martin. Good question. I think the confidence level is primarily built on the number of projects we are bidding at the moment, but also how our clients are willing to commit to these bids if they can secure capacity. I think that for -- obviously, something like the U.K. round 7 auction, I know that the budget was for some in the market lower than what was expected. But I still believe that with the budget, a significant amount of projects can be approved. And for us, it's about being involved in the right projects, but also a general belief from the projects that are currently tendering in those years and willing to commit to those years, we form an overall view that we see and especially on '29 on foundations that there is or will be potentially a situation where not everybody can be served in that year.

Martin Karlsen

Analyst

Good. And then as a follow-up, in terms of positioning Cadeler for the next, call it, next couple of years in terms of backlog, '28 looks maybe to be a little bit challenging. But when you get into '29 and '30 and there is quite a lot of uncertainty in the industry as a whole, could you talk a little bit to how you perceive or get comments from clients with respect to your positioning, having a large fleet of vessels and also being able to do both foundations and turbine versus some of the single or 2 vessel companies out there?

Mikkel Gleerup

Management

Yes. I think that, that is something that is certainly valued highly by the clients that there is a degree of predictability and safety in the supply side because I think that even for a year like '28 where some developers, they have one project to execute, it is very, very important that, that project goes to plan. And I think that we see that -- and we also feel very much from the conversations we have with our clients that it is a lot around our ability to deliver, our ability to guarantee vessel and potentially backup vessels if something should go wrong, that matters more than anything else. We oftentimes get the question, how much do you discuss price with your clients? And I would actually still say that price is not the main thing that we are discussing with our clients, whereas it is true that there is, of course, more pressure in '28 because we are more fighting for fewer projects. So that's a natural function. But I think that there are realities on both sides of that. So I think, firstly, it depends a lot on which developer are we talking to. And secondly, also what kind of project is it that they want to execute. But particularly on the foundation side, it's a confidence in the delivery. And on the WTG side, it's also this whole, how can we back up around the turbine OEMs should they have problems, for example. So I think that those are things that we are discussing.

Martin Karlsen

Analyst

And you touched a little bit on it, my next question in your answer already. But in terms of pricing, there's been at least from the outside, pretty solid pricing for '26, '27 execution, then you announced recently work for '29, '30, which also seem to be at a good pricing. Can you kind of help us understand that in the context of '28 demand looking a little bit softer?

Mikkel Gleerup

Management

And I think again, it depends a lot where you're looking. If you're looking in Asia, I think that we are still seeing a tighter supply and demand balance even in '28 compared to rest of the world. But I would say in Europe, we are seeing that in '28, the prices are slightly more under pressure, and you need to be sharper in order to secure projects there. So in '28, I would argue that price is a matter because obviously, if you have a project in 2028, you also know that there are more companies that can do it for you than currently there are projects. And hence, that drives, if not a downward pressure on the prices, then at least a stabilization of prices at least. But I think that it is an overall evaluation criteria. It's -- as I've said before, it's hard to evaluate it on a daily rate basis. So I cannot tell you that it has gone down from this to this. But I think it's more for the overall view on the project, but it doesn't mean that it's not still something that is attractive for us to do.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jamie Franklin from Jefferies.

Jamie Franklin

Analyst

So firstly, just focusing on 4Q. You mentioned obviously that Hornsea 3 is probably the biggest variable in terms of where you end up within your full year guidance range. Could you maybe just give us a bit more color on the scope currently being worked on Hornsea 3? And then as you move into 2026, what is your kind of current expectation in terms of timing for first monopile installation, please? And then the second question is just for Peter. In terms of the cash flow for 4Q, can you give us any indication of what to expect in terms of working capital, a pretty decent inflow in 3Q? Should we expect that again in 4Q? And similarly, on CapEx, what are kind of the main components to expect in 4Q? Is it just a final installment of Wind Mover? Or are there going to be some Wind Keeper upgrade CapEx as well?

Peter Hansen

Management

Yes. If we take the last question first. Thank you, Jamie. CapEx Q4, that is, of course, the Mover. And then it's mission equipment on Wind Ally, I think. And then, of course, what is also coming every quarter is these capitalized borrowing costs. But on these 2, it will be around EUR 320 million so around that, but predominantly coming from the move of working capital. Of course, Q3 is a little bit of a special quarter for working capital because it goes down significantly due to that we have received the termination fees on long-term agreement cancellation that was sitting as an asset at the half year, end of June, and we received the money in Q3. So there was an inflow there. If you isolate that, it's pretty much the same picture we will see in Q4 as we have seen in Q3. We have modest growth in working capital or same level. That is what we see. What we are seeing on -- the transport and installation scope, we are doing in '26, that is, of course, the planning and engineering, but we're also starting on the transportation scope in Q4. So that is what we see the first monopile -- maybe you can answer that...

Mikkel Gleerup

Management

Yes. I can answer that, we are not allowed to tell you because it's Ørsted that is having that under their announcement criteria, so to speak. So we are not allowed to guide you towards when the first pile is in the water. What I can say is that we are absolutely on plan on Hornsea 3 and that we follow all our planned deliveries on target and on budget at this stage, which is very, very pleasing because, of course, at this stage, we have delivered many of the engineering scopes that we have been working on for years and years. And this includes the transportation frames for the secondary steel, the transportation frames for the piles, the mission equipment for the vessel and the vessel is mobilizing at the moment. At the same time, we are preparing 2 ports, the Port of Tyne for secondary steel where the Wind Orca will operate from and Tees work where the Wind Ally will work from loading out piles. So a lot of things are going on. And we consider at the moment that we are in full execution on Hornsea 3. But of course, the Ally will come in, in the first quarter next year and start preparing for installation of piles, but the exact dates and targets and all of that is not something we are allowed to discuss in the public domain.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Daniel Haugland from ABG Sundal Collier. Daniel Vårdal Haugland: Good to see you and congrats on a good report. So I have a couple of questions. The first one is on the contract, the EUR 500 million contract you announced recently. Are you kind of able to give any indication of a rough kind of percentage split of how much is related to the T&I services and how much is the installation that is...

Mikkel Gleerup

Management

Unfortunately, we're not -- it forms part of an auction for the client, and hence, we are not allowed to divide it out any more than we are at this stage. We will do that whenever we pass certain milestones. But at this stage, we are not allowed to do that. Daniel Vårdal Haugland: Okay. That's okay. And then my second question is, given that you're now kind of ramping up revenues from foundations into 2026, will you start kind of a segment reporting, splitting out the 2 different ones at some point? Or will you kind of just continue on the way you've already been reporting?

Peter Hansen

Management

We have no plans to show segment reporting on that. Daniel Vårdal Haugland: Okay. And then on kind of the commercial outlook, I see that you're still expecting vessel undersupply towards the end of the decade. So I was wondering, could you maybe explain a little bit more on that, Mikkel, because as you said, demand looks to be shifting to the right. So are you expecting anything to happen on supply as well? Or are you just saying that demand will still grow enough in, say, 2029 and '30 to still create an undersupply?

Mikkel Gleerup

Management

Yes. As I said to Martin, when he asked the same question, I think that we are getting this confidence from the projects we are bidding and also the clients that are willing to put money where their mouth is, so to speak, on their projects. And that is for us a good indication that these projects are something that they are betting on at least and in terms of undersupply, I think we have said for a few quarters now that we think that most of the analysts they are getting the supply side wrong, both on the WTG and on the foundation installation and that too much is counted on the supply side. And I think that the future will show how that will work out. But as I think that has been said from our side before, whether or not there is an over or undersupply, we believe that the best assets in the industry drive so much efficiency on a project that it will always be the best solution to go with the best asset. So in terms of fall height, we believe that we are in a good position with the assets we have, not for every single project in the world, but for, let's say, a standard offshore wind project at utility scale, we believe that there is a strong benefit and a strong efficiency gain in taking the best asset for the project. So I think that it's a combination of these things that we, in general, think that most analysts get the supply side slightly wrong. And we think also that the clients are much more, let's say, active and committing to the years '29, 2030, 2031 and then what I said around fall height.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Andreas [indiscernible] from SB1 Market. [Operator Instructions] Andreas, we are unable to hear you right now. Apologies. We seem to be having some technical difficulties. That is our final question for today. So if you -- we would like to hand back to Mikkel Gleerup for any closing remarks.

Mikkel Gleerup

Management

Yes. Thank you. Just wanted to say thanks for listening in to this quarterly presentation. We are looking forward to come back to you with the fourth quarter and the year presentation also with more details on the Hornsea 3 because at that point in time, we will have a lot of exciting stuff to show you. So -- yes. Wait out for that. It will be interesting. There's a lot of exciting things going on at the moment, and we're looking forward to also announce the delivery of the Wind Mover in the not-so-distant future. Thank you very much for listening in and reach out to us if there's any follow-up questions that is better handled on a one-to-one basis. Thank you.