Curtis Buser
Analyst · Autonomous Research. Your line is open.
Patrick, it’s Curt. Hey, thanks for your question. The – what we don’t like to do is, obviously, give specifics on items that are really hard to predict. We make an assessment of carry at the time of each realization. Generally speaking, we’ll be on the front-end of a new fund that’s in carry initial realizations. We’ll generally tend to be a little conservative in terms of our carry decisions, because we don’t want to be in a situation we have clawback. We’re very focused on managing clawback risk. But generally, the gain fund is generally to try to be in a place, so on average, take about 20% of the gain in carry. But again, you’re looking at different things and times you might even be in a more of a catch-up mode, we’ve actually taken a little bit more than the 20%. The right way I think to kind of think about realization of carry is the following. We’ve been able to grow accrued carry. We’re now at about $1.6 billion of net accrued carry, that’s up 46% from the end of the year. The – we have about $64 billion in remaining fair value in our carry funds, excluding investment solutions. Of that $64 billion, about 27% of it is over four years old. So generally speaking, about ready to be monetized. When I think about path on performance realizations, especially over that accrued carry balance, I generally think, on average, it takes us about three to four years to realize carry to realize the net accrued carry number once a fund is fully invested. So, obviously, earlier while still in the investment period, it’s been obviously a longer time period. The other key step I’d point you to that we have shared many times is that, over the last five plus years, our realization of net performances fees is generally been ranging from 40% to 55% of our beginning of the year accrued carry balance. Now, that’s not statistically whatever, it’s just happened to be that way, but it’s over 5.5 years of kind of doing that. I would say, that’s a pretty good way to think about things with those following exception. Right now, we have a lot of our accrued carry is in funds that are relatively new, 65%, in fact, of the carry generated this year from an accrual perspective is in funds that are still in an investment period. So if you’re going to use that last metric of 40% to 60%, or 40% to 55%, I’d look at it on the lower-end of that range simply because so much of that carry is still relatively new. But that’s, I think, a good way to overall frame kind of carry realizations.