Sumit Singh
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
Hi, Nathan, this is Sumit. So on the macro it is -- the trends that we started seeing coming out of Q3 have largely persisted, right? For the most part, you're seeing discretionary -- spending in discretionary being low persisting, you're seeing a shift out of that in to drive persisting. So nothing has broadly changed. We're not seeing broad trade downs happen on our side. So customers that are engaging with premiumized assortment aren't the ones essentially trading down. So loyalty within core consumables categories and customers' general reluctance to switch from a proven food that works well for their pet, that is pretty intact. The power of the Autoship model, which facilitates the stickiness and behavior is intact. And all of the softness that we're seeing is primarily in our non-Autoship-driven businesses. which are more egregiously weighted towards discretionary, including categories such as treats per se. You had a second part to your question, I think, additional commentary on NSPAC, gross ads. Our commentary on customers hasn't necessarily changed. We guided in Q3 that we expect a wider outcome. If you can -- I mean, of course, we've been about roughly 100,000, 150,000 customers down on a year-over-year basis, on an average, 100,000 customers. We don't expect to make that up and our customer sentiment doesn't change up until kind of the macro starts resolving. We're happy with the way that we played through Black Friday, Cyber Monday. We're happy with the way customers are responding to us across our consumables, Autoship, health-type categories. Our reactivation rate remains pretty strong. So all of those are positive trends. Q4 typically comes with a very high mix of seasonal discretionary categories. And if you look at it from a year-over-year perspective, it's down relative to last year. But compared to 2021, discretionary is down roughly -- on a mix basis, roughly 15%, and that definitely has an impact.