Hratch Panossian
Management
Thank you, Meny. Thanks for the question. It's Hratch. I'll take that. You're right. We do publish our sensitivity, and I'll clarify a few about that and give you a bit of color of where we stand now. In the context of where we've come from, right, and where we could go from here. So our sensitivities are modeled, and there's lots of assumptions in there, but they generally do hold, right? So going into it last spring, our sensitivity was about 280 million for 12 months of NII for a shock of 100 basis points. And we did see the market move 150 on the short end, closer to 100 in Canada on the longer end. And commensurate with that, we've seen the impact. So we have had some impact to NII as we've gone through. We have about -- as of this quarter, it was probably about $60 million year-over-year impact to us versus an expectation before we hit that decline in the yield curve, was being up year-over-year. So you see that range of the numbers do actually hold. When I look at where we stand now, and we've got that disclosure for 100 basis points up of . Again, we would expect that would hold. That's maybe a little bit different than some of the assumptions our peers have said they've made around that. So for us, that includes the impact of the deposits that we're currently carrying, and we know we're carrying some excess deposits relative to what we had before this. And some of that may go away. And if you take some of that away, that 440-ish could be somewhere between 300 and 440 depending on how much of that actually sticks around through this. But there's still material sensitivity upside to rising rates. And what's happened so far is we've actually seen a bit of a recovery. So going from that significant year-over-year impact that we have now, you've seen that mute, particularly in this last quarter that we've seen the yield curves steepen. And we've seen in Canada anywhere kind of, call it, 20 basis points to 60 basis points, depending on where on the curve you're looking at on the swap curve. And that's brought us to a point where we stand now based on the current forwards. Rates forward as we roll the balance sheet are a small negative, but not a material factor. So we're close to neutral. And so from there, if you see any further movement, you can apply that sensitivity. And it will give you also a sense of on a year-over-year basis, what that will do to NII and NIM.