Earnings Labs

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Sat, Nov 8, 2014

$47.66

+0.93%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.
Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Canadian Natural Resources Third Quarter 2014 Conference Call. After the presentation we’ll conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded today, Thursday, November 6, 2014, at 9:00 a.m. Mountain Time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Doug Proll, Executive Vice President of Canadian Natural Resources. Please go ahead, Mr. Proll.

Douglas A. Proll

Management

Good morning and thank you, for joining our third quarter 2014 conference call. Today, we will briefly review our third quarter financial and operating results and present our 2015 budget. We will also provide an update on certain projects, including the integration of the significant asset acquisitions undertaken in the first half of this year. With me this morning are Steve Laut, our President; and Corey Bieber, our Chief Financial Officer. We will be referencing slides in the call today that are found as part of the webcast and as part of the PDF on our website. Before we begin, I would like to refer you to the comments regarding forward-looking information contained in our press release, and also note that all dollar amounts are in Canadian dollars, and production and reserves are expressed as before royalties unless otherwise stated. I would like to make a few brief comments before turning the call over to Steve and Corey. On behalf of Canadian Natural Resources, I would like to welcome Ms. Annette Verschuren to the Board of Directors. Ms. Verschuren brings an extensive business background and a level of experience that will greatly benefit the management committee and Board as we continue to profitably transition the Company into a long reserve life, low decline, and low capital intensive business, creating value for our shareholders. Canadian Natural had a very strong third quarter. We have a proven, effective, value driven strategy. We delivered cash flow from operations of CAD2.44 billion or CAD2.23 per share in the quarter and continued to execute on our capital programs. We focus on safe, effective, efficient and environmentally responsible operations resulting in reliable operating performance across our diverse asset base and strong cost control management. Of interest, Research Infosource announced this past Monday; Canada's top 100 Corporate R&D Spenders for 2013. Of note, Canadian Natural was the number eight overall spenders in Canada and ranked first in the energy industry. This reflects our commitment to technology development and proactive environmentally responsible operations. We have a strong, balanced, diverse portfolio of assets with significant exposure to light and heavy crude oil and we have significant natural gas upside. We continue the transformation to long life, low decline assets increasing sustainable free cash flow to create value for our shareholders, and we maintain a strong financial position to weather commodity price cycles in order to deliver the plan. The agenda for today's conference call can be found on Slide 4. I will now turn you over to Corey for his synopsis of the third-quarter highlights and a review of our financial strength. Steve will then discuss what sets Canadian Natural apart, an overview of our 2015 budget, as well as a quick asset overview Corey?

Corey B. Bieber

Management

Thank you, Doug and good morning everyone. If you would turn to Slide 5 of the associated slide deck, I'll make the following brief comments on the quarter and then allow Steve to spend more time, as Doug said, on our outlook and plans for 2015 and beyond. The third quarter was a strong operational and financial quarter for Canadian Natural. Our production averaged 797,000 BOEs per day representing a 13% or 94,000 BOED increase over the third quarter of 2013. This reflected both strong organic growth as well as the completion of accretive acquisitions. Natural gas production increased from Q3 2013 levels by 44% or 511 million cubic feet per day to 1,674 million cubic feet per day, reflecting both the successful integration of accretive acquisitions and a concentrated liquids-rich drilling program. North American light oil and NGL production increased 33% or 23,000 barrels per day, while Pelican Lake and primary heavy crudes grew by a combined 9,300 barrels per day. This represented a seventh and third sequential quarterly production increases and production records for those two products. Total thermal volumes were also higher than Q3 2013 due to Kirby South ramp up. The thermal business is set to deliver significant value to shareholders. Our mechanical issues at Kirby South have been remedied and with strong production ramps in the 40,000 barrel a day target production level has resumed. At Primrose, we received approval from the regulator to implement a low pressure steamflood in Primrose East area 1, which has commenced and production is ramping as expected. At Primrose south, we received approval for additional CFSs, cyclic steam stimulation, on four pads in September 2014, with production start targeted to ramp up in 2015. Horizon Oil Sands SCO volumes were lower than last year, reflecting the planned 25 day…

Steve W. Laut

Management

Thanks, Corey and good morning everyone. As well as Corey and Doug have pointed out, the third quarter was another very strong quarter for Canadian Natural. I'll start out this morning on Slide 6, with Canadian Natural's advantages beginning with Slide 7. Canadian Natural has and will continue to build a premium value, defined growth independent. We're one of the few companies in our peer group that has the assets to deliver free cash flow on a sustainable basis, a direct result of the strength of our assets, robustness of our business model and strategies, and our ability to effectively execute these strategies. It all starts with Canadian Natural's diversified and well-balanced asset base that is delivering significant cash flow; an asset base that we're able to grow while utilizing just over half our cash flow generating significant free cash flow. Free cash flow is set to increase dramatically as a result of our effective and strategic capital allocation choices. Canadian Natural has essentially four free cash flow allocation choices. Firstly, the development of our large resource base. Secondly, we can and have returned free cash flow to shareholders that have grown significantly at a 44% CAGR since 2009. Thirdly, we can allocate some of the free cash flow to opportunistic acquisitions if they're available, add value, and strengthen our asset portfolio, as we've done in 2014. And finally we can allocate the free cash flow to strengthening the balance sheet, a balance sheet that is already very strong. This model is highly effective, starts with a balanced diversified asset base, and is driven by effective capital allocation, effective and efficient operations and strong management. Canadian Natural is in a very enviable position and has a clear advantage compared to many of our peers when it comes to unlocking the…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Paul Sankey from Wolfe Resources. Your line is open. Paul Sankey – Wolfe Research: Hi, good morning, everyone. I don't know how many times you said the word free cash flow during that presentation, but clearly it is a major theme for you. We've seen something of a delay, if you like, in the arrival of the free cash flow. One way of wondering about this for me is when we got beyond Horizon, would you be guiding us to thinking that you just structurally have a lower level of CapEx going forward that you won't sort of reload if you want and therefore we could start to think about trying to value the stock on a 2018 and onwards circled wall of free cash flow, or do you think that the possibility is for you to actually sort of reload? Thanks.

Corey B. Bieber

Management

Thanks, Paul. That's a good question, one we get out quite often and you like free cash, obviously flow said it enough times because that is a theme. There is a delay in that the ramp up of free cash flow that’s really based on commodity prices. When we get to 2018 we will have a lower level capital that required because obviously Horizon is expanded and does not need capital to expand further. We'll also have by that time Kirby South ramping up now, Kirby North will be ramped up by then. So we have a significant component of our long life, low decline assets that are delivering free cash flow and not requiring additional capital. So as you look at that profile, you can see that our capital drops down into that sort of 7.5 range post 2017 or 2018. So the possibility of us going forward to do more projects, obviously that's an option. But at this point in time, we feel we're pretty well optimized with our asset base and the capital allocation and would not present the possibility of increasing capital. That being said, we do have options. Clearly, if we get a major discovery in South Africa, which would be a positive thing. We could allocate more capital there, but that would be for good reason. We also have 514 Block in Cote d'Ivoire that could be discovery, although we have 36% working interest that consume some capital expenditures post 2018. And clearly if decided we could do Phase 4/5 because we can't take Horizon to 500,000 barrels a day. At this point in time, we're not planning to do that. And we're doing very little work to get ready for that. I guess the other thing we could allocate capital to is additional gas drilling. We do have a significant gas asset base. However, we wouldn't do that until we've seen additional price increases or more stability in prices. And when that happened, obviously our cash flow would be even higher so it would be less impact on the free cash flow while we increase it. So that’s a long answer to your question. Hopefully I've answered it. Paul Sankey – Wolfe Research: Yes. It's a good one. Just as a follow-up would be is there any potential for you to increase or lessen the pressure on free cash flow between now and 2018 by a more aggressive approach on reducing CapEx? And I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Corey B. Bieber

Management

Yes, we always, as you know, we have CAD2 billion in capital flexibility in 2015. So we have the flexibility to reduce capital if we so choose. Paul Sankey – Wolfe Research: Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Greg Pardy from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open, Greg Pardy – RBC Capital Markets: Thanks. Thanks, good morning. Steve, just with the Republican victory in the Senate now that stoked a lot of questions around Keystone XL. Would you mind reminding us just in terms of your capacity, I don't know rough tolls to the Gulf. Because I think you've got an advantaged toll structure. And then just curious on how you're thinking about heavy oil realizations and differentials into 2015.

Steve W. Laut

Management

Thanks, Greg. Obviously, we are a supporter of Keystone Pipeline as we are a supporter of Energy East and TMX to the West Coast and Canada, Keystone to the East Coast. On Keystone we have 120,000 barrels a day of committed capacity. The toll is confidential, so won't talk about that. As far as heavy oil differentials, we think structurally there's big demand for heavy oil, as you know that the Gulf Coast is short of heavy oil to optimize their complex. That's why you're seeing differentials structuring lower with access to the Gulf Coast and without Keystone, that access has essentially been bridged by rail capacity up here in Canada to get to the Gulf Coast. So we see in 2015 very strong differentials as you see in our budget. We have an 18% WCS differential to WTI. Greg Pardy – RBC Capital Markets: Okay, thanks for that. Secondly though, as we've seen in previous downturns, 98 or 99, I mean you became very, very acquisitive. I know you've mentioned you've got the CAD2 billion in terms of flex capital. What are the triggers then? I mean perhaps aside from just pricing potentially being lower than what you're forecasting, but I'm just wondering how those triggers will cause you to – or what the triggers might be over the course of 2015, essentially call it your first half program pretty much set and you'd take a look at readjusting capital as need be in the second half. I mean when it comes to acquisitions, is your sense that as you've seen in past cycles that the downdraft we're seeing will create opportunities?

Corey B. Bieber

Management

Thanks, Greg, for that question. It's a good one. Our capital flexibility and we have flexibility that's very quick to turn, so we could actually adjust capital in the first quarter if we wanted to. The trigger there would really I think the only trigger we have would be commodity price, and we always look at commodity prices. That would be your trigger. Obviously we have a very strong balance sheet, but we want to preserve that going forward. As far as acquisitions go, I believe that our asset base is very strong. There's no gas in the asset base. So we don't actually need to do any acquisitions. We're in a prolonged commodity price trough here, clearly there probably will be opportunities, but we don’t have any need to take advantage of or to build our portfolio in any way. So it clearly you had to value and be significantly, have significant upside into it before we would do any acquisitions. So its really not on the plan for 2015? Greg Pardy – RBC Capital Markets: Okay. Thanks a lot, Steve.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Fai Lee from Odlum Brown. Your line is open. Fai Lee – Odlum Brown: Hi. It's Fai Lee here. Just follow-up on Greg's question. In terms of the capital flexibility, would you – you mentioned that the only trigger would be commodity price decline but would you consider actually pulling back capital to buy back shares if you felt that offered a better return to shareholders?

Steve W. Laut

Management

That's something we consider, we look at, everything has to compete for capital. And obviously, we have four priorities, resource development which we want to keep to make sure we've got the growth and make that transition. Returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. We want to make sure we can do that and maintain a strong balance sheet. So we would look at that, everything competes for capital. Fai Lee – Odlum Brown: Okay. And just on the free cash flow profile going forward, there's a slight decline in 2020 from 2019. Is that due to natural decline? Or is there some other factor there?

Steve W. Laut

Management

The other factor there is in 2020. Horizon starts to pay higher royalties. Fai Lee – Odlum Brown: Okay.

Steve W. Laut

Management

Because it gets payout. Fai Lee – Odlum Brown: In terms of 2020, if we pull that forward three, four, five years, 2020 is sort of your representation of what it might – the free cash flow might look like beyond 2020?

Steve W. Laut

Management

Well, beyond 2020, it gets fuzzier and fuzzier. But in our plan, I would say free cash flow would actually start to be at that level and then start to ramp up as we get more and more thermal production coming onstream. Fai Lee – Odlum Brown: Okay. Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Next question comes from John Herrlin from Societe Generale. Your line is open. John Herrlin – Societe Generale: Yes, hi, Steve. Regarding acquisitions, you've always tended to do complementary type acquisitions domestically in Canada. Would you ever slum in the US and also maybe add more in your international position?

Steve W. Laut

Management

Thanks, John. To do any acquisitions, I think it's far from slumming, the prices are pretty high. We don't see any need to expand our portfolio to another area, so we wouldn’t do the US and that's not in our plan or even on the horizon. As far as international, in maybe in some of the areas we would look to that if it was complementary to our assets, but again we don't see much out there so it's probably highly unlikely. John Herrlin – Societe Generale: Sure. With respect to your deepwater activity in West Africa, should we assume second quarter for the Outeniqua well?

Steve W. Laut

Management

Yes, it will be in the first half we drill so should get results sort of late second quarter, early third quarter. John Herrlin – Societe Generale: Okay. Last one from me. On the cost side, kind of the E&C side, given the fact that you're still involved with upgrade projects at Horizon, et cetera, have inflation rates really come down given the moderation in industry activity? What are you seeing on the E&C side for you?

Steve W. Laut

Management

On the E&C side, I would say the costs are fairly stable. We haven't really seen much inflation, although there are some cost pressures on selective type trades but not a lot of cost inflation, and I would think with commodity prices where they are we may be actually in a bit of a window here coming forward. And we may not see as much inflation as we might have been concerned about before. John Herrlin – Societe Generale: Great. Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Operator

I have no further questions in queue. I now turn the call over to the speakers for closing remarks.

Douglas A. Proll

Management

Thank you, operator, and thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for attending our conference call. As we navigate our way through another period of very volatile commodity prices, Canadian Natural has a very strong and diverse asset base, a complementary balance of production and a strong well-developed plan for the systematic development of this asset base. We concentrate on safe, efficient and reliable operations and a strong financial position supported by readily available liquid resources. And finally Canadian Natural retains significant capital expenditure program flexibility to proactively adapt to changing market conditions including volatile and uncertain commodity prices. If you have any further questions, please give us a call. Thank you, again, and we look forward to our 2014 year-end quarter conference call in early March.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.