Earnings Labs

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 7, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Canadian Natural Resources Q4 2018 Earnings Results Conference Call. After the presentation, we will conduct the question-and-answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. Please note that this call is being recorded today, March 7, 2019, at 9:00 AM Mountain Time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Mark Stainthorpe, Vice President, Finance, Capital Markets at Canadian Natural Resources. Please go ahead, Mr. Stainthorpe.

Mark Stainthorpe

President

Thank you, Carol. Good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining our fourth quarter and year-end 2018 conference call. With me this morning are Steve Laut, our Executive Vice Chairman who will briefly discuss our strategic focus on creating shareholder value and highlight some of the factors that set us apart from our pears. Steve will also provide an update on Canadian Natural and industries' efforts on the environment front where significant performance achievement are not well understood. Tim McKay, our President, will provide a more detailed update on the year-end and quarter, as well as discuss our ongoing projects and operations. Darren Fichter, our Chief Operating Officer for E&P, will provide an update on our strong year-end 2018 results and Corey Bieber, our Chief Financial Officer, will provide an update on our robust financial position. Before we begin, I would refer you to the special note regarding non-GAAP measures contained in our press release. These measures use to evaluate the company's performance should not be consider to be more meaningful than those determined in accordance with IFRS. I would also like to refer you to the comments regarding forward-looking statements contained in our press release and also note that all amount are in Canadian dollars and production and reserves are expressed as before royalties unless otherwise stated. With that, I'll now pass it over to Steve.

Steve Laut

Management

Thanks, Mark, and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining the call this morning. The Canadian oil market was very rocky in the fourth quarter with disfunctional marketplace dynamics, driving historically high differentials for both heavy and light oil in Canada. Canadian Natural delivered $1.22 billion of cash flow in a low price fourth quarter, reflecting the strength of our assets and our effective and efficient operations. The first quarter of 2019 is a completely different story where market order has been established and with curtailments opposed by the Alberta government by order has been established. The current outlook for the first quarter prices for SCO produced at horizon and AOSP are up roughly 45%. Light oil is up roughly 66% and heavy oil pricing is up roughly 400%. We applaud the Alberta government for taking this action. Short-term commodity price volatility has a minimal impact on Canadian Natural. We do not produce a significant portion of our reserve base out in a low price period, as our asset base is long life low decline and very sustainable. Canadian Natural's long life low decline asset base combined with our effective and efficient operations make Canadian Natural very robust. As a result, we generate significant free cash flow. Canadian Natural's ability to generate significant and sustainable free cash flow sets us apart from our peers. Canadian Natural is very disciplined in our cash flow allocation between our four pillars; the balance sheet; returns to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks; resource development; and opportunistic acquisitions, all to maximize value for shareholders. We have a vast high quality undeveloped assets with significant value adding and growth opportunities, and we remain disciplined on the execution of timing before these opportunities. Timing depends on improvements and market access, fiscal competitiveness and regulatory effectiveness and…

Tim McKay

President

Thank you, Steve. Good morning everyone. The strength of our assets and our ability to execute shows in our 2018 year-end results as we continue to be effectively allocate capital to maximize value for our shareholders. I will now do a brief overview of our assets. Starting with natural gas, our overall annual production of 1.548 bcf was down from 2017 production of 1.662 bcf, primarily a result of our proactive decision to reduce natural gas activities, curtail and shut-in production due to low national gas prices in our North American operations. Our annual natural gas production for North American operations was 1.49 bcf with operating costs of $1.25 per mcf, both within guidance. Our fourth quarter North American natural gas production was 1.44 bcf per day, which was impacted approximately $85 million today by the third-party Pine River plant, which was down mostly the quarter. As well as during the quarter, we proactively curtailed production due to lower natural gas prices, an impact of approximately $30 million a day. The Pine River plant is up and running at a restricted rate of $90 million a day and we continue to wait on regulatory approval to take over operatorship. Based on our recent engineering cost assessment, we now target to reinstate the plant to $120 million a day in the third quarter of 2019 versus our original plan of $145 million a day. At Septimus Montney in Q1, we have commenced a small drill program of five net gas wells and targeting them to be on production in late 2Q. Septimus Montney is liquids rich and very robust due to low cost tie-in and very low operating costs, resulting in high net back. In the fourth quarter, the Canadian Natural operations realized strong natural gas pricing at $3.23 per mcf…

Darren Fichter

Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Tim. Good morning. To start, I'd like to note that 100% of our reserves are externally evaluated and reviewed by independent qualified reserve evaluators. Our 2018 reserve disclosure is presented in accordance with Canadian reporting requirement, using forecast prices and escalated costs. Canadian standards also require other disclosure reserves on a company gross working interest share before royalties. Finding and development costs and reserve replacements are key indications of a company's asset strength and ability to execute. In 2018, Canadian Natural continued our track record of delivering impressive results. And our strong performance is reflected in our finding and development costs. Our corporate planning, development and acquisition costs, excluding changes in future development capital, are $3.11 per BOE for proved reserves and $2.31 per BOE for proved plus probable reserves. Canadian Natural's finding, development and acquisition costs, including changes in future development capital are $9.39 per BOE for proved reserves and $10.79 per BOE for proved plus probable reserves. We replaced 2018 production by 281% for proved developed producing reserves, by 359% for proved reserves and by 485% for proved plus probable reserves. As evidence of Canadian Natural's transition to our long life, low decline asset base, our top tier reserve life indexes have increased to an impressive 21.3 years proved developed producing, 27.7 years for proved and 37.4 years for proved plus probable reserves. In 2018, we increased our proved developed producing reserves by 10% to 7.6 billion BOE. Proved reserves increased 12% to 9.9 billion BOE, and proved plus probable reserves increased 13% to 13.4 billion BOE. The net present value of future net revenue before income taxes using a 10% discount rate increased 19% to $106.6 billion for proved reserves and 14% to $131 billion for proved plus probable reserves. In summary, these excellent results reflect our ability to execute, as well as the strength, talent and exceptional opportunities we have in our asset base. Now, I will hand over to Corey for the financial highlights.

Corey Bieber

Chief Financial Officer

Thanks Darren for that comprehensive update on the company's reserves performance for 2018. We demonstrated our resilience during the fourth quarter and have strong financial performance during 2018. During the fourth quarter, pricing on benchmark West Texas Intermediate dropped 15%, which was exacerbated by exceptionally high differentials on both heavy oil, as well as light oil and SCO, significantly impacting all of industry. As noted earlier, CNQ proactively curtailed volumes in 2018, and the impact in Q4 of '18 was about 24,500 barrels a day of production. We also strongly supported the government of Alberta in their mandating and production curtailments in 2019. Against the backdrop of negative pricing volatility in Q4 '18, Canadian Natural's strong asset base still drove cash flow from operating activities of $1.4 billion in Q4 '18, about $350 million greater than quarterly cash flows used in investing activities. For the year 2018, we drove exceptionally strong financial results, again, in the context of a very volatile marketplace. Again, our resilience and strong cash flow, strong free cash flow generating capacity was exhibited. Cash generated from operating activities was a record $10.1 billion with adjusted fund flow coming in at $9.1 billion. This resulted in net earnings of $2.6 billion and adjusted earnings of $3.3 billion. These 2018 adjusted net earnings from operations of $3.3 billion represent an increase of about $1.9 billion when compared with 2017, even with the volatility and realized pricing in the year particularly in Q4 '18. This strong result was largely driven by higher oil sands mining production where we benefited from a full year of Horizon phase three and AOSP production, coupled with a 13% reduction in per barrel on adjusted operating costs on these assets. Our 2018 adjusted fund flow of $9.1 billion was $4.4 billion in excess of…

Tim McKay

President

Thanks Corey. As you're aware, Corey Bieber, our CFO for last six years, will move to the new role with the company as an Executive Advisor, effective March 31, 2019. Canadian Natural has a robust succession plan that ensures a smooth transition. And over the years continues to show the strength of our people we develop. We congratulate Mark Stainthorpe on his new role as CFO. In summary, Canadian Natural has many advantages, our balance sheet strong and it will continue to strengthen. We have a well balanced, diverse and large asset base. A significant portion of our asset base is long life low decline assets, which requires less capital maintain volumes. We have a balance in our commodities with approximately 50% of our BOEs, light oil and SCO, 24% heavy and 24% natural gas, which lessens our exposure to the volatility in any one commodity. We are delivering sustainable substantial free cash flow, which we are effectively allocating to our four pillars. Canadian Natural will continue to allocate cash flow to our four pillars in a disciplined manner and maximize value for our shareholders. Our disciplined resource development has replaced 2018 production by 359% for proven reserves corporately with D&A costs of $3.11 per BOE, and increased reserve life index to 27.7 years all impressive metrics. Returns to shareholders have been strong with 22% dividend increase in 2018 and our balance sheet, debt reduction of $1.8 billion and will continue to strengthen. We have bought back approximately 30.9 million shares. And finally, we completed two strategic core land area acquisitions that's added significant long term value to Canadian Natural. We target 2019 to be another strong year of allocating to our four pillars, all driven by effective capital allocation, effective and efficient operations and by our teams to deliver top tier results. In 2019, we will continue to be very disciplined with our capital spending. With the announced dividend increase of 12%, it's our 19th consecutive year of dividend increases. And year-to-date we have purchased approximately 3.9 million shares, and we will continue to reduce our debt as per our allocation policy. With that, I will open it up the call to questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you [Operator Instructions]. Our first question today comes from Benny Wong from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Benny Wong

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Appreciate your thorough comments on crude takeaway and looking your prepared remarks. Just wondering now with line three delayed and the strong heavy oil pricing we're seeing along the coast. Should we expect CNG to be more inclined to look for more crude by rail than what you're moving now?

Tim McKay

President

We would continue to value rail options, and we're not first to doing more rail. If it's the right deal for our shareholders on the terms of -- cost and terms. So, if you recall in 2012, we took a flexible approach to crude by rail and at times, we moved up to 35,000 barrels a day. So today, we continue to look at options and if we have the right term and price, we'd look to potentially do more.

Benny Wong

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

I guess my follow up is related to that and regarding Kirby north in the new Primrose pads. I think as of right now, they’re targeted for a start up later this year. Does that still make sense with the Line 3 being delayed, or to potentially rail bridge that?

Tim McKay

President

It's really too early to say if we would defer the startup of either project. The way we see it today, northwest upgrader will take an incremental 50,000 barrels a day of incremental heavy oil. We still see declines conservatively at 45,000 barrels a day. And in fact, we were approached by one operator offering to sell their portion of curtailment volume allocation. So we see declines conservatively at 45 that could be much higher with the additional rail, by both industry and government. From our perspective, it's just too early to say whether we'd start those projects up current or delay them. It's a nice part of both is they are ahead of schedule, they're on cost. And we have that optionality to look to defer if we see that it is going to be a problem, the differentials are going to blow. And outflow just defers Kirby north startup, which is not a big issue for the summer month. And then at Primrose with the CSS cycles, they're very flexible. From that aspect, we decide when we put steam in. So Primrose is probably the most flexible option we have.

Benny Wong

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

And just my final question is, Devon Energy is marketing its Canadian assets. And just wanted to get your view on those assets, and if they'd be a good fit within your strategy at the right price. It seems like Jackfish and Pike is pretty close to Kirby. Just wondering if there will be synergy opportunities there?

Tim McKay

President

We've always stated we have no gaps in our portfolio. We do look at all items in our core areas, for example, the Joslyn lease we exercised that option, which would add a significant value to Canadian Natural. So we're not opposed to doing or looking at things and doing the right deal for the right opportunity that creates long-term value for shareholders.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Manav Gupta from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Manav Gupta

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

You've indicated earlier in the comment that the entire nominational process is dysfunctional, forced the government hand, which is what most people agree with. I'm just trying to understand what efforts are being made to fix this broken system, if any?

Tim McKay

President

We continue to work with the government and other industry players to change the rules far as the nomination process. So as an industry, we're still at various opposing of how to fix it. But we have made a recommendation to the Crude Oil Logistics Committee, there are parts of it and have sent that to the government for their feedback.

Manav Gupta

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead

And the follow up is looking at Venezuelan production declining pretty sharply, the sanctions are in. So there is obviously a very strong tight market for heavy thermal barrels. And then obviously, you're indicating that you would like to ramp up volumes at Horizon. You're talking about engineering designs, which could increase production 75 to 95. And then you also indicate that those projects will only be brought online with improved market access. So I'm just trying to understand that comment on improved market access was that comment on line 3 or was that more a comment on the KXL and TMX?

Tim McKay

President

The comment is meant for all three. Obviously, we're disciplined with line three being delayed but we're confident it will be built in the future. KXL is going through the process and we look to hear that piece, hear by the end of Q1. As well as Trans Mountain as well is going through the process. The NEB hit the first phase and we're just waiting on the second phase of the NEB consultation to have Trans Mountain looking ahead. And we hope with Trans Mountain that that construction could start as soon as this summer.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Greg Pardy from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Greg Pardy

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Tim, you mentioned you've made an adjustment to the Horizon mine plan. I'm just wondering if you can talk about that little bit and maybe how Joslyn fits into that plan.

Tim McKay

President

So in the third quarter, we acquired the Joslyn lease. And so in their original Horizon mine plan, we were actually looking to go to the North and which was a longer haul, it's more costly. With the Joslyn lease, it's very proximal to our current pit digging, I guess, you would call it. And so with that by just moving south saves us over $500 million. And as well we look to use the opportunity to have that south pit expansion to test IPEP pad in there potentially. So it's just a real nice opportunity and fits well with Canadian Natural's operation at Horizon.

Greg Pardy

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

And then when do you -- how many years down the road do you think it will be before you're effectively in the shelf to do the Joslyn assets?

Tim McKay

President

Well, we're in there today, stripping and 2021, we will be moving oil.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Phil Gresh from JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Phil, please check your line for mute.

PhilGresh

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Phil, please check your line for mute

First question is just on the capital spending for the year, and understanding that you want appreciation or better market access to go for certain projects. Does that mean if we don't hear anything this year that this capital spending number -- you did different scenarios of the analysis. So does that mean at this point you'd be thinking that this capital spending member is what you'd be sticking with? And to the extent there is extra cash flow but not necessarily better market access that we should be thinking debt pay down and more buyback to shareholders would be the plan for the year?

Tim McKay

President

So the way we see it today, our budget at 3.7 is where we sit. Obviously, from just a corporate execution basis, our teams are ready to execute on future value opportunities, should we see clarity in market access. But the way it sits today, the $3.7 billion budget is stands as is.

PhilGresh

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Phil, please check your line for mute

And I might have missed this. But you guys usually give an end of year view at the strength of what the balance sheet would look like. Did you make that comment or can you share it?

Corey Bieber

Chief Financial Officer

So debt-to-EBITDA, we would see -- right now, we're in that 2 times range, we'd see that coming down 0.1 or 0.2. And our debt-to-book cap is in that 39% range, it right comes down into that 37.5 range. All things being equal stripped today.

Philip Gresh

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Phil, please check your line for mute

Okay, great. Thanks Corey, and of course congratulations to you. One final question, this is just understanding this Line 3 situation. I know you guys view that market does have an natural decline rate to it. And so how things play out over the course of this year in terms of supply demand balances without Line 3 coming on, and assuming you might make for certain projects, et cetera. But do you -- is it your base case assumption at this point that the curtailments would still need to continue into 2020 to keep markets down without Line three, or I just want to clarify in that?

Tim McKay

President

Yes, it's always hard to say because the activity levels could be different than they currently are. But the way we see it today between the basin declines, the northwest upgrader rail, we see curtailments actually diminishing. Like I said conservatively in our forecast, we have 45,000 a day decline. If you look at debt to basin, if you have a zero activity case basin is probably closer to 300,000 a day barrel of decline. So the wild card, this is always the activities levels but it's clearly the activity levels here in Alberta is less. And so conservatively that 45,000 barrel a day is probably too conservative.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Asit Sen from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Asit Sen

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

I have two questions, one a quick one on operations and one strategic. So, on the northwest Red Water refinery upgrader. What is the current volume and what's the feedstocks slate? I thought I heard a 50,000 barrels a day heavy oil. What timeframe is that?

Darren Fichter

Chief Operating Officer

So northwest, and it's probably better to get the inflation directly from northwest. But we can tell you that they're taking between 40,000 and 50,000 barrels of day of SCO. They're still commissioning the gas fire heavy LC finer. Once they're up and running that would switch to about 8,000 barrels a day of blended bitumen. So basically, take 80,000 barrels a day of heavy oil volumes off the pipeline and turn into products here in Alberta. So, when that's up and running it will be a positive impact as Tim pointed out for production in Alberta.

Asit Sen

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

And then a more big picture question. You all had led out a fairly steady growth profile at the December Analyst Day, I think target is 7.5% production per share CAGR, that's strip pricing at the time. Now, outside of oil prices, what would it take for you to lower the long term growth profile to return more gas to shareholders? In other words, in the current environment and investor debate, how you're thinking about optimally balancing cash returns and growth within your four pillar framework?

Tim McKay

President

So with that forecast, we actually had very conservative spending profile and growth profile. So it really in my mind doesn't change our forward looking on a per share basis.

Corey Bieber

Chief Financial Officer

I think the one thing to look at here is that we are generating a tremendous amount of free cash flow. We have a well defined allocation policy here of all free cash flow will 50% will go to share buybacks, and the rest of the balance sheet for dividends. So we are I think doing a very prudent and responsible way of forecasting. As Tim pointed out in the call here today our assets are very strong. We're able to deliver that growth. And it's really a reflection of the long life low decline -- our assets, so the decline is much lower. So it's easier for us to deliver growth and returns to shareholders, and that's what makes us very unique E&P company compared to our peers.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Neil Mehta

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

The first is on just the dividend bump 11%, nice to see. As you guys go about sizing what the appropriate dividend increase would be. Just talk about your strategy around capital returns with all this uncertainty going on in Alberta.

Corey Bieber

Chief Financial Officer

I'd say that dividends are very important to us and to the board, obviously, the shareholders as well. So what the board does is they evaluate our position on payout and yield on a quarterly basis against our cash flow and net earnings, both on a historic as well as on our forward-looking basis. And those metrics provide the board some guidance as the appropriate yields and payout levels for the company. But fundamentally the board's view is that the dividend has to be sustainable and provide room for growth on an annual basis throughout the commodity price cycle. And in order to do that, we do a lot of stress testing at low commodity prices to ensure that the dividend is sustainable. So it's balancing that growth that discipline, that trajectory on the dividend, but also measuring it with the sustainability through the cycle. There are several different factors that are looked at and I don't want to get into all of them here. But it is really is a stress test but providing long-term growth in the dividend.

Neil Mehta

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

This question might be a little trickier to answer, but anything that you can provide would be helpful. Just with the elections coming up over the next two to three months in Alberta. How do you see different outcomes around curtailments? Enbridge Line 3 getting pushed to the right. Do you think there is a reasonably high probability that the curtailments get extended through the balance of the year. And some of your peers have actually explicitly made comments about whether they think curtailing production is the right thing or the wrong thing to do for the long-term health of the Canadian oil industry. So your thoughts there would be interesting as well.

Corey Bieber

Chief Financial Officer

I think elections are tough to predict what’s going to happen. I will point out this that both parties in Alberta that are vying for the election are very supportive of curtailment, and came out strongly in favor of curtailment. I will think you'll see who's ever wins the election will be very judicious on how they manage curtailments, and they'll really look and ensure that there's no marketplace dysfunction that we've had here in the past to make sure that doesn't happen again. So we think curtailment, as Tim pointed out, will probably lessen here as we go forward and we're seeing that already I think. So it's just a managed process. Line 3 is delayed that hurts us. But as Tim pointed out, there's 365,000 barrels a day of effective takeaway capacity coming anyway without Line 3 and with declines, we think you'll see curtailment come down maybe markedly.

Neil Mehta

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Last question from me, Tim, would be, if you could drill down into your comments around carbon intensity. Because that kind of flies in the face of conventional wisdom, many participants view Canadian oil as higher in carbon levels and emissions than other types of oil. So could you just talk about the data behind that and provide more color on your angle here?

Tim McKay

President

I think what you got to look at here is most of the people are using information from 2009 and before. Obviously, we were high intensity oil at that period of time. As I pointed out in my comments earlier, we've made tremendous progress and reduced our emissions intensity by a huge amount. And matter of fact we're actually below the average and we can even do more here's as we go forward, and we will do more. This is not just Canadian Natural this is the whole Canadian oil industry. So when you look at it that way and you look at the intensity and when you look at flaring that we do here, don't do here in Canada versus the rest of the world. If you look at a global perspective, you will actually reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the world globally by producing Canadian oil, Canadian gas and producing that oil and delivering it to global markets than you do today. I think that is essentially a game changing performance, it changes the perspective. I think it'll take some time, because people are slow to adapt to the new data, with the new facts or reality. But in fact, if you really believe in reducing global emissions then Canadian oil should be sent to global markets as should Canadian gas. And I think it's very clear as the data points that out. That wasn't always the case and I think its tremendous credit to the Canadian oil and gas sector for making those improvements and performance.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Dennis Fong from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Dennis Fong

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead

Just back at your Investor Day, I believe you guys discussed an aggregate amount of stores that you guys were using in Q4. Just to the curiosity, it sounded like that was relatively full at around the end of the quarter. And are you using that storage in terms of some of your marketing efforts to potentially gain incremental sales in Q1 as they're excluded from the mandatory curtailment?

Tim McKay

President

So the storage that we have is excluded from the mandatory curtailment. Obviously, we have storage to be -- that's used for operational issues for SCO and as well as heavy oil. So those are more, what I would call, marketing operational versus what you're alluding to being somehow used in the curtailment calculation.

Corey Bieber

Chief Financial Officer

Storage was quite low down.

Tim McKay

President

Our stores levels are quite low. So essentially we had full storage at the open house and today we have very little in storage.

Dennis Fong

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead

And then the second question that I have is just maybe a bit of an extension around some of the bottlenecking initiatives at Horizon. So the primary I guess concern for you guys in terms of potentially sanctioning this is around egress initiative. Can you maybe comment a little bit about notwithstanding back to any components, are there things that may hinder you from to sign to move forward with some of these projects? Or is it just the geographic component that you guys have concerned about with respect to evaluating the economics of these bottlenecking projects at Horizon? Thanks.

Tim McKay

President

In general, we're looking ahead for better market access. And really for those projects we'll continue to do the engineering work to be ready to execute on that optionality, and it is optionality. So to us when we see greater clarity on the market access or takeaway capacity then we'd look to do that long-term projects. Remember they are two to five years out in terms of when those volumes would come to the market.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from potion from Paul Cheng from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Paul Cheng

Analyst · Paul Cheng from Barclays. Please go ahead

First, I want to say congratulation to say congratulation to Mark and Corey for your corresponding new position. Tim, just want to clarify, the timing for the standup of Kirby north Primrose on the new project. Are they contingent on the Alberta government, lifting the curtailment totally, or that you will be able to being, because I thought the curtailment is asset by asset?

Tim McKay

President

No, the curtailment is actually done on a corporate basis. So really positive part about Canadian Natural is we actually have a host of various assets Horizon, SOP, thermal, which we can optimize how the curtailment impacts the company. So for example, my example of that is our Horizon. By moving it into March, our corporate allowable doesn't change but we gain 140,000 barrels a day by not overlapping with other assets in terms of the curtailment. So it's a very much corporate basis. And as that, we can use that as an opportunity to maximize our assets that way.

Paul Cheng

Analyst · Paul Cheng from Barclays. Please go ahead

We were being pulled by other company that is actually on asset-by-asset basis, but you're seeing that is actually on a company level?

Tim McKay

President

Yes. If you only have one asset, it would be just that one asset. But Canadian Natural has a lot of different assets and a lot of levers to pull to minimize the impact of the curtailments.

Paul Cheng

Analyst · Paul Cheng from Barclays. Please go ahead

And can you tell us that the production quota you received from the government. Is it March equal to February or March is actually different or is slower?

Tim McKay

President

February and March were the same based on the 250,000. They get increase the April by 25,000 barrels -- or decreased 25,000 barrels a day. So the current allocation is or curtailment is 225,000 barrels a day.

Paul Cheng

Analyst · Paul Cheng from Barclays. Please go ahead

So they already announced in April...

Tim McKay

President

Yes they did.

Paul Cheng

Analyst · Paul Cheng from Barclays. Please go ahead

And for the company share price, if I look at value in Texas as of last month, it's about $60 and in [indiscernible] is about $45.70. So we're talking about the spread is $14.30. So you should cut for most of the oil variable cost. But is that spread wide enough for anyone to sign new contract? In other words, does that cover the entire contract price?

Tim McKay

President

Well, it depends on your agreement. If you -- there's couple of ways you could look at this. If you have a fixed cost and let's say $10 and a variable cost between about $5 that would look to cover your cost. If you look at it from a terms of your fixed cost or sum cost, that you're actually on a variable basis you would beginning value by doing that. So obviously, it depends on what type of agreements you have, terms, cost to say if you'd be making money or…

Paul Cheng

Analyst · Paul Cheng from Barclays. Please go ahead

Sorry, that’s not what I mean. I think that I understand that this spread is sufficient to protect the variable cost. I guess my question is that is this spread sufficient to entice anyone to sign new contract, so that the fixed cost is not a sum cost, because you are signing a new contract.

Corey Bieber

Chief Financial Officer

I think Paul that the economics today would say that there is money has being made by moving oil by rail. As Tim pointed out, the contracts are fairly complex. So I think people are working through that. But on the surface, yes, you'd make money by moving rail to the Gulf Coast today.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions. So I now turn the call back to Mr. Stainthorpe.

Mark Stainthorpe

President

Thanks Carol. And thank you everyone for attending our conference call this morning. Canadian Natural's large, well diverse asset base continues to drive significant shareholder value. The ability of our teams to deliver effective and efficient operations with top tier performance is contributing to substantial and sustainable free cash flow. This together with effective capital allocation contributes to achieving our goal of maximizing shareholder value. If you have any further questions, please give us a call. Thank you again and we look forward to our 2019 first quarter conference call in early May. Thank you again and good bye.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.