Richard A. Galanti
Analyst · Guggenheim Securities
Thank you, Dawn. Good morning to everybody. This morning's press release reviews our third quarter operating results for the 12 weeks ended this past May 6. As with every conference call, I'll start by stating that the discussions we're having will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and that these statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual events, results and/or performance to differ materially from those indicated by such statements. The risks and uncertainty include, but are not limited to, those outlined in today's call, as well as other risks identified from time-to-time in the company's public statements and reports filed with the SEC. To begin with, for the quarter, our earnings per share came in at $0.88, up a little over 20% from last year's third quarter earnings per share of $0.73 and $0.01 greater than the first call consensus of $0.87. As was mentioned in this morning's release, this year's third quarter included a pretax LIFO charge of $6.5 million or about $0.01 a share. Last year's Q3 had a pretax LIFO charge of $49 million pretax or about $0.07 a share. A few other items of note when reviewing the year-over-year earnings comparison. Again, our sales results: an 8% overall sales increase and a 5% comp sales increase. The FX impact from earnings of our foreign operations year-over-year, assuming FX rates have been flat year-over-year, that was a hit to pretax earnings of about $8 million or also about $0.01 a share. Also, we had a 9% increase in membership fees that I'll talk about. This increase included a small benefit from last November's fee increase in the U.S. and Canada, also about $8 million pretax or about $0.01 a share. Lastly, we had a favorable year-over-year income tax rate comparison similar to what we saw in Q2. In terms of sales for the quarter, our reported sales were up 8% total and on a comp basis, up 5%. For the quarter, both total sales and comp sales were impacted by gasoline price inflation, which was largely offset by the weakening of foreign currencies on average relative to the U.S. dollar year-over-year. On a comp sales basis, the 5% U.S. comp sales increase in Q3, excluding gas inflation would've been a 4% and the reported 5% international comp figure, assuming flat year-over-year FX rates, would have been a plus 8%. If you take those 2 together, they offset each other, and the reported 5%, excluding both gas inflation and FX, would have remained at a 5% for the total company on a comp basis. Other topics of interest, our opening activities and plans. After opening 4 new locations in Q1, which ended last November 20, we opened 2 locations in Q2, both in Japan. In the third quarter, we opened a location -- another location in Japan near Osaka, and we also reopened our Tamasakai warehouse in Japan, which had been closed since the tragic events of last March 11 in Japan. We also relocated a unit in Ontario, Canada and opened 2 new units in the third quarter as well in Pharr, Texas and in Huntington Beach, California. At the end of Q3, our worldwide unit count was 602. All told, that would put our fiscal '12 expected opening schedule at 16 net new units: the 10 we have opened fiscal year-to-date and 6 more planned by fiscal year end here in the fourth quarter. These total 16 would include 10 in the U.S. and 6 in Asia: 1 in Korea, 1 in Taiwan and 4 in Japan. A quarter ago, I had indicated we expected the total number for the year to be 17; 1 has since slipped into early fiscal 2013.Also this morning, I'll review with you our E-commerce results, our membership results and also a little bit of a further discussion on margins and SG&A and repurchase activities. Again, sales were $21.8 billion, up 8% from last year's $20.2 billion and 5% comp. For the quarter, the 5% reported comp figure was a result of a combination of average transaction increase of 1.7% for the quarter and average frequency increase of 3.6% for the quarter. In terms of sales comparisons by geographic region, in terms of -- in the U.S., the Midwest, Northeast and Southeast regions were the strongest. International and local currencies, Canada and Mexico were the strongest; with Taiwan and Japan being the weakest, mostly due to the small base of existing units in both of those countries and the cannibalization associated with recent openings over the last year, as well as a year ago the very strong post-earthquake business that we experienced in Japan in the third quarter. In terms of merchandise categories, for the quarter, within Food and Sundries, we had a comp result in the mid single-digit range, a little below where it had been running in the each of the past couple of fiscal quarters. All subcategories are positive, ranging from 1% to 11% each among those 7 or 8 subcategories. Within Hardlines, which was in the low single digits positive, the strongest subcategories were hardware and automotive, with electronics being slightly negative for the quarter. Within the high single-digit Softlines' comp, small appliances, domestics and apparel were the strongest performers. In Fresh Foods, all subcategories were all centered around the mid single-digit range and -- as was the entire category. Food and Sundries and Fresh Foods continue to experience inflation on a year-over-year basis at the low single-digit range, but we are seeing a little bit of inflation abatement, if you will, in the past few weeks; in fact, some price reductions on some food items like milk, cheese, bacon, butter, coffee, olive oil, flour, et cetera. Still, some inflation we see in beef and across many of the nuts categories. On the nonfood side, not much inflation expected going forward right now, although probably a little bit of reduction on the apparel side. That being said, you never know until we get there. Moving down to the line item of the income statement. Membership fees, we reported $479 million -- $475 million versus $435 million year a ago, so up 1 basis point or $40 million and then a year-over-year dollar increase, up 9%. As I indicated at -- near the beginning of the call, the U.S. and Canada fee increases that went into effect last November benefited Q3 results by about $8 million. Excluding this fee increase benefit, if you will, as well as a slight negative impact of about $3 million from the FX that I mentioned earlier in terms of assuming flat FX year-over-year, the 9% dollar increase in new membership fees would've been up 8%. In terms of membership, we continue to enjoy strong renewal rates, which I'll talk about it a minute, and we continue to enjoy increasing sales penetration from -- and membership penetration from our executive members. Our new member sign-ups in Q3 were quite strong, up 9% on a year-over-year basis, largely due to the strong international openings this past year in Asia and Australia. In terms of number of members at Q3 end, Gold Star we had 26.4 million, up from 25.9 million 12 weeks earlier; Business Primary at 6.4 million, also at 6.4 million a quarter ago; Business Add-on, 3.6 million compared to 3.7 million a quarter ago. That a lot has to do with just people convert to executive member, and they go out of the add-on category and become their own member. All told, we ended the quarter with 36.4 million member households versus 36.0 million at the end of the second quarter. And including spouse cards, total cardholders, 66.5 million, up from 65.7 million 12 weeks earlier. At Q3 end, our Paid Executive members were a little over 12.3 million, an increase of almost 200,000 in the 12-week fiscal quarter, about 16,000 new executive members per week. That's a combination of new sign-ups, as well as conversions. In terms of renewal rates, they continued strong. The trends in the U.S. and Canada have sequentially been up every quarter for the last several quarters. At Q3 end -- as of Q3 end, our Business renewal rates were at 93.6%, up from 93.5% a quarter ago and up from 93.3% at the end of the fiscal year; Gold Star, 88.6%, up from 88.4% and 88.1% at the quarter end year -- fiscal year-end. So total all told, in the U.S. and Canada, 89.6% versus 89.4% a quarter ago and an 89.1% at the beginning of the fiscal year. On a worldwide basis, we're up -- we're at an 86.2%, up from an 85.6% a quarter ago and 85.7% at the end of the fiscal year. So all told, trending -- continuing to trend in good directions notwithstanding the fee increases that we began in November in the U.S. and Canada. As most of you know, we -- the increases. We increased the annual fee for Gold Star in business and Business Add-on. They're all now at $55 in the U.S. and Canada. That was -- and for Executive member, it went from $100 to $110. As I mentioned, those were effective November 1. But in terms of size, it really was effective January 1. It was effective November 1 for new sign-ups in the warehouse. But in terms of the renewers, the renewers, that started in January and will continue through this December. In all, about 22 million members were impacted or will be impacted by this increase, about half of whom are Executive members and half of whom are the $55 member. In terms of timing of these increases in the income statement, please recall that the fees are accounted for on a deferred basis, so really, the first big impact to the P&L of that membership fee income line will be in the upcoming fourth quarter and into Q1 into the next year. As I previously mentioned on the first and second quarter calls, there was essentially no impact in Q1 to the membership line; about a $1 million pretax impact to Q2 and as I mentioned earlier in this call, about $8 million pretax in Q3. And again, it’ll be much more meaningful in Qs 4 -- in Qs 1 and 2 in the next fiscal year. It's essentially a 23-month timeline, as I’ve talked about before, how we recognize the $5 and $10 increases, starting when they renew – with the receipt -- the increase is paid and then spread out over the next 12 months. With regard to Executive Membership, also in conjunction with the increases I mentioned earlier, we increased the 2% annual reward from a maximum of $500 year to a maximum of $750 a year based on eligible purchases. While it's still pretty early to see the complete impact of renewals -- renewal rates from the increase, so far, so good. And in our judgment, we don't expect any issue here. Going down to the gross margin line. Margins were up, on a reported basis, 5 basis points, from a 10.50% to a 10.55%. I'll ask you to, as usual, jot down the following: 4 columns and 5 line items. The line items will be Merchandising Core; Ancillary; third line item would be 2% Reward; fourth line item will be LIFO; and then Total. And the 4 columns, there'll be 2 columns for each of Q2 and Q3; the Reported column for Q2; and then the second column would be Without Gas Inflation. We try to show you that to compare things on an apples-to-apples basis. The same thing for Q3, so columns 3 or 4 would be reported in column 4 without gas inflation. So going across, core merchandise in Q2 as you recall, we reported core merchandise margin down 25 basis points. Without gas inflation, it was down 16. In Q3, it was down 21 reported and down 14 without gas inflation; ancillary, minus 5 and minus 4 in Q2 and in Q3, plus 7 and plus 8; 2% Reward, minus 2 and minus 3; and the same numbers for Q3, minus 2 and minus 3 again; LIFO, plus 2 and plus 2 in Q2; and in Q3, plus 21 and plus 21. So all told, in Q2, we reported 30 basis point year-over-year lower margin; without gas inflation, 21 basis points to the negative. In Q3, as I just mentioned, plus 5 reported; and without gas inflation, a plus 12. Mind you, the big change there is still the LIFO effect of going from $49 million last year in Q3 to $7 million this year. As you can see, our core merchandise was down 21 on a reported basis, but the impact of gasoline sales now being almost 12% -- about 12% of our sales, up a little bit from last year. Net income -- increased penetration caused that number. Taking that out, it was 7 -- it was 14 basis points minus. Within the 4 merchandising categories of Hardlines -- Food and Sundries, Hardlines, Softlines and Fresh Foods, Hardlines was up in margin year-over-year, where the other 3 categories, Food and Sundries, Softlines and Fresh Foods, down a little bit year-over-year. Ancillary businesses and gross margin, as I mentioned, were up 7 basis points or 8 excluding gas inflation, mostly a function of higher gasoline gross margins and the higher sales penetration as well. Looking at those 2 together, we did it a little better in Q3 versus Q2. The impact from increasing Executive Membership is minus 2 basis points, implying another percentage point of sales penetration going to those executive members and their eligible purchases. And again, of course, the big delta here, I'm looking at these numbers this way, is the LIFO that I already mentioned. Moving on to SG&A. Our reported SG&A percentage Q3 over Q2 were lower or better by 2 basis points, coming in at a 9.84% compared to last year's 9.86%. Again, I think the best way to look at this -- explain it is to do the same 4 columns: Reported and then Without Gas Inflation for both Q2 and Q3. The line items would be: Operations; second line item, Central; third line item, Stock Compensation; fourth -- actually just those 3 items and then the Total. Going across. For operations plus 25, meaning that in Q2 last year our SG&A from operations was lower year-over-year by 25 basis points. Plus means good. And then without gas inflation, the plus 25 was plus 18. In Q3, it was plus 10 and plus 4; central, plus 5 and plus 4 a year -- in Q2 year-over-year. This year, in Q3, versus last year, minus 8 and minus 9; stock compensation, minus 1 and minus 1, and then 0 and 0. So all told, in Q2, we reported an improvement of plus 29 basis points year-over-year or plus 21 without gas inflation. And this year, as I mentioned, plus 2 and then minus 5 without gas inflation. So a little editorial here. Just like the gross margin percentage where increased gasoline sales penetration hurt us, it correspondingly helped the core operation’s SG&A by about 6 basis points, such that excluding gas inflation, our core SG&A was lower or better by 4 basis points in the quarter. And this is despite increased health care and workers comp costs which, together, represented a Q3 year-over-year hit to SG&A in the high-single basis points level. In Q2, by the way, health care and workers' comp and benefits had actually helped the year-over-year comparison. Payroll, by the way, within the core business, was up about 7% in dollars compared to the 8.2% sales increase. Our central expense was worse or higher year-over-year by 8 basis points or 9 basis points, excluding gas inflation. About half of this negative basis point increase is due to higher IT costs related to a combination of things going on, including the modernization of our systems and related activities that we've embarked on of late. This includes, among many other items, the replatforming of our E-commerce site, as well as our move to a new data center in central Washington. Central expenses also impacted a little bit, a couple of basis points, by health care and benefits, as well as 1 basis point on legal fees, which can go either way. Next on the income statement is preopening expense, $8 million last year in the third quarter and $6 million this year, so $2 million lower. We actually opened 4 units in Q3 this year compared -- including Tamasakai compared to just 1 last year. No issues, simply the timing of these expenses related to the openings before, during and after the 12-week third quarter in question. In terms of asset impairment closing costs, last year, we had a charge of $1 million. This year we had a similar charge of about $1 million. All told, operating income in Q3 was up by $67 million from $556 million last year to $623 million this year. Below the operating income line, reported interest expense was lower year-over-year, with Q3 coming in at $19 million this year versus $27 million last year, so about $8 million lower year-over-year. This mainly reflects the interest expense on our $2 billion debt offering and the fact that on March 15, we paid -- debt offering back in February of '07. On March 15, this last month --1.5 months ago, we paid off $900 million of debt. The anticipated annual pretax interest savings, given that we’re paying off effectively 5.4% debt and foregoing interest income on our cash in the 20 to 50 basis point range, is about $46 million pretax per year, and that's net pretax savings to us. For Q3, this represented a pretax savings from interest expense for about 7 weeks or about $7 million. For Q4, which, by the way, given this is a 53-week fiscal year and therefore, a 17-week fiscal fourth quarter, we had a pretax positive bump of about $15 million. So again, on an annualized basis, given where current cash interest rates are, it's about $46 million a year pretax savings to us. In terms of interest income and other, that was $13 million better, $18 million this year versus $5 million a year ago. Actual interest income was higher year-over-year by $1 million. The biggest components of the $13 million year-over-year change was related to FX impacts on our business. As discussed with you in the past couple of quarters, internally, about $4 million of this benefit or this year-over-year positive change related to gains on FX contracts that we look at internally as efforts of our -- part of our merchandising efforts, but on a book basis, GAAP basis, it goes on this line. Also, about $7 million benefit of this change increase related to gains on nonfunctional currencies held in foreign operations, notably the fact that in Costco in Mexico, we held some of our cash in dollars given that we also procure significant goods from our U.S. operation on behalf of that operation. For example, so as the dollar strengthened these past couple of months, Costco Mexico generated a book gain, half of that is ours since we own half of the operation. But all of the $7 million goes on this line -- or is recorded in this income statement line, with the offset going down below in the noncontrolling interest line, near the bottom of our income statement. A little convoluted but that's how you report it. In terms of income taxes, our company tax rate for the quarter came in at 34.8% versus 36.1% last year. Our lower effective tax rate is due both to a few discrete Q3 items year-over-year, some of which reduced our Q3 taxes versus last year and as well to a lower income tax rate in several of the foreign countries where we operate. For example, the statutory federal rate in Canada has come down in the last year by nearly 2 percentage points, and we've seen similar type of things in a couple of other countries. So not unlike Q2 where we saw the tax rate come down a little bit year-over-year, we've seen this as well. And to the extent that it's related to the changes in the tax rates in these countries, that's, at least for now, a little more permanent. Discrete can go either way. Balance sheet. You’ll -- was part of the press release, so I won't go into that detail other than the fact that the -- a couple of metrics that we always talk about and the accounts payable as a percent of inventories, how much of our inventories are being financed with trade payables. What's reported on the balance sheet is all types of payables, not just merchandising but construction payables and things like that. So on the balance sheet, last year, it showed the payables as a percent of inventories as 106%; and this year, 104%, so down a couple of percentage points. If you just look at merchandise payables and inventories, it was 91% last year versus 92% this year, so a little bit of a positive bump there in terms of trade payable financing. Average inventory per warehouse last year in the quarter was $11.0 million; this year, $11.7 million, so up $700,000 on average per warehouse. This compares to higher year-over-year per warehouse inventory levels at the end of the second quarter of $1.1 million and at $1 million at the end of Q1, so a little bit reduced from those higher levels. The $700,000 increase per warehouse in Q3 is really spread among many merchandise categories, obviously includes also the impact of inflation year-over-year. Our inventories, we believe -- we feel, are in a very good shape. CapEx. In Q3, we spent $278 million last year; almost the same this year, $268 million and year-to-date right at $900 million. Given the expansion we've got going on in Q3 -- in Q4 rather, as well as some ramped up expansion in the first 3 or 4 months of fiscal '13, starting in September, we'd expect CapEx during -- for the fiscal year '12 to be right in the $1.4 billion range. In terms of costco.com. currently, that's -- or Costco Online, that's a combination of costco.com in the U.S. and costco.ca in Canada. Year-to-date sales and profits are up over last year. Our average ticket continues to be a little down, given the nature of the types of products that we sell. But our site traffic continues to grow and was up year-to-date versus last year and for the quarter. Lastly, we are -- as I mentioned, before, we're replatforming our dotcom site, which should be completed and then in operation by the end of the summer. Also, as I mentioned, I think briefly, last summer I was asked about, we are in the process of getting ready to launch our first 2 applications for mobile, both an Apple and an Android. Those are expected to be published and available within the next few weeks. Let's see, next topic, expansion. Again, for the year, we expect to open a total of 17 units, 1 of which is a relo, so a net of 16 new units. On the basis that we've started with 592, that's a little under 3% unit growth and about 3% square footage growth. As of Q3 end, our total square footage stood at 85,885,000 square feet. As I mentioned earlier, in terms of our plans for CapEx for the year, that includes also a little bit of a ramp-up in the first part of next year. There's plenty in the pipeline next year. We currently have 13 openings planned for the September to December period versus 6 that were actually opened in the comparable 4-month period -- calendar 4-month period in calendar '11. There's always a possibility that a couple of those may slip, but those are all ongoing projects that are in different stages of site work or real estate planning or construction. In terms of common stock repurchases, in Q1, we purchased $173 million worth of stock; Q2, $145 million; in Q3, $130 million. So -- and that would put us inception to date since the middle of '05 at 113 million shares at an average price of $57.12 a share or almost $6.5 billion we've spent on stock repurchases. Lastly, our scheduled fourth quarter earnings release, believe it or not, will be on Thursday, October 11. Again, that's for the 17-week and 53-week quarter in the year ended -- ending this coming September 2. With that, I'll open it up to questions with Dawn. And I'm going to put you on the speakerphone here, Dawn.