John Chambers
Analyst · Barclays
Laura, thank you very much. During the opening comments of the conference call, I will focus on what I view to be the key takeaways for Q3 fiscal year 2010: First, a very candid discussion about what we are seeing in the market on a global basis relative to Q3 and its effect on our Q4 fiscal 2010 expectations; second, an update on our rapidly improving financial measurements and some interesting geographic product, acquisition and customer segments metrics; third, a high-level summary of what you see us in terms of where we're placing our risk investments and the results in some market adjacencies; and then finally, our revenue guidance for Q4 with the appropriate caveats. Following my opening comments, Frank will provide additional detail on Q3. In the third section, we will focus on business momentum from a strategy, customer segment, geographic and product basis. Frank will then follow with additional financial parameters around our guidance. I would then wrap it up with some comments in terms of Cisco's momentum going into Q4 and finally, our Q&A session. From a summary point of view, I think there are a number of key takeaways from the results in Q3, and I will attempt to cover these at this time. First, the financial results were outstanding and very well balanced across key areas, achieving record-level results from both total revenue and earnings per share from a GAAP and a non-GAAP basis. Revenue of $10.4 billion, an increase of approximately 27% year-over-year, was above our guidance provided last quarter of 23% to 26%. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.42, a 40% year-over-year increase. GAAP earnings per share were $0.37, a 61% increase year-over-year. Expense management was solid, with non-GAAP operating expenses as a percentage of revenue at 36.3%. Non-GAAP product gross margins were very solid at 65.3. Cash generated from operations in Q3 was approximately $3 billion. And we repurchased $2.2 billion of stock during the quarter under our repurchase program. Non-GAAP operating income as a percentage of revenue was 28.8%. Non-GAAP net income of $2.5 billion was up 41% year-over-year. Product book-to-bill was approximately one. As a reminder, Q3 had one extra week in the quarter, which occurs approximately every five to six years. The market over the last year and a half has evolved pretty much as we expected and indicated in our conference calls. In fiscal year '09, the first three quarters had negative sequential growth in both orders and revenues. Q3 of that year was the bottom. And Q4 was clearly the tipping point returning to normal sequential growth that is Q3 to Q4 of fiscal year '09, especially orders but also in revenues. In fiscal year '10, each of the quarters-to-date has shown a very soft sequential and year-over-year growth. As we stated in prior conference calls, Q1 FY '10 acceleration was in the first phase of the recovery. And in our opinion, Q2 marked the second phase of capital spending of the recovery with additional across-the-board acceleration in all our geographies and market segments. This quarter, Q3, we saw a return to both balance across geographies and customer segments that we haven't seen since before the global economic challenge began. There are three key takeaways in my mind for the quarter. First, Q3, in my opinion, is the proof point to having achieved our goals and aspirations in terms of how we handle very challenging economic times. We emerged from this downturn and gaining market share, a larger share of the total wallet spend of our customers, dramatically improved customer relations as their trusted technology and business partner, and having next-generation products in almost every product category. Second, our innovation and operation engine are sitting on all cylinders. This applies to products, organization structure, business models and movement into 30-plus new market adjacencies. And third, from almost every measurement perspective, whether revenues, earnings per share, new product introductions, successful acquisitions, leading and economic challenges, internal start-up and so many more, this quarter was probably the strongest quarter we've had in our history. In summary, our game plan for handling the economic downturns hit on all cylinders. Q3 results are the proof points and was, in my opinion, the strongest across-the-board quarter in our history. At this time, I'd like to provide additional detail on the very positive order growth and balance across geographies and market segments. The balance was extremely strong across our four large geographic theaters, all four growing in terms of orders at or above 30% year-over-year. The U.S. continued a strong pace with very solid balance across enterprise, public sector, search provider, commercial and consumer, all growing in excess of 25% year-over-year. Our Emerging Markets theater, which does not include China or India, returned to very solid growth, comfortably above 40% year-over-year for the quarter. And we have, as a reminder, in Q2, our Emerging Markets, this group was flat year-over-year. So it's a major improvement. Asia-Pacific grew over 30% again, with very solid balance across key customer segments. I know there are many questions about our business momentum in Europe. We were very pleased with our European year-over-year growth numbers of approximately 30%. Our smallest theater, Japan, which represents about 3% of our business, grew in low single digits from an order perspective. Although it's hard to know for sure the benefits of the extra week in the quarter in terms of orders and revenues, our best estimates with all the appropriate caveat is that it has probably contributed to an additional 45% in year-over-year growth terms. Now on to additional detail from a country perspective, which was equally as encouraging. Two quarters ago, only two our top 15 countries saw year-over-year positive growth. Last quarter, eight of our top 15 countries saw year-over-year positive growth. In Q3, 12 of our top 15 countries saw orders in excess of 20%, and all but one saw positive order growth. Our new innovative, dynamic network organization structure of councils, boards and working groups, as discussed in the last few calls, is operating very effectively and has been an important part of managing through the recent downturn and then position us for the acceleration of results achieved in Q3. These structures allow speed, scale, flexibility and rapid replication. During the last year, we have completely enhanced our routing, switching, advanced technology and consumer product lines. Growth in terms of orders were all approximately 25% or better year-over-year. And the new products such as our Nexus product family, our ASR product family, new fixed switching of the 2K and 3K, are all producing growth results at the high end of our expectations. The details supporting our new product success is really impressive. The following is a quick summary of year-over-year growth rates for these new products. The Nexus 2000 is up 431%. The Nexus 5000 is up 315%. The Nexus 7000 is up 277%. The ASR 9000 is up almost 900%. Our UCS product line had sequential revenue growth of 168% from Q2 to Q3, an order growth of 83%. For our other new products that have recently been announced, the sequential order growth, that is from Q2 to Q3, was also very strong. In terms of just quarterly sequential order growth, the ASR grew 243%. The ASR 5000 grew 243%. The ASR 9000 grew 110%. The ISR G2 grew 337%. The ISR 1900 grew 333%. The 2900 ISR grew 335%. And 3900 ISR grew 342%. Ned, that's probably as fast as we've ever done with new products in terms of rapid ramp-up for the next generation. Obviously, both our next-generation product introduction pace and rapid customer acceptance of these new products across our entire product lines is extremely strong. In my opinion, in fact, the best we've seen in the history of our company in terms of breadth and depth of this innovation engine was solid operational execution. Again, I would not underestimate the role that the organization structure and new business models have played in our ability to achieve the above-mentioned results. We believe that these are sustainable, differentiated advantages for Cisco versus our peers in the market. And I'd, therefore, continue on our optimism about gaining a bigger share of our customer spending even in the areas where we already are the clear leader. As we projected in prior conference calls, we had market share gains in both switching and routing. As an interesting supporting data point, our CRS-1 had year-over-year order growth of approximately over 45%. And our IP phones had order growth of approximately 57%. While it's too early in the integration stages for our two large acquisitions, Starent and TANDBERG, the initial integration, internal integration, customer acceptance and excitement has gone even better than we could've expected. These two acquisitions have had the broadest acceptance with our customers, almost without exception of any acquisitions we've done at any time in terms of the initial integration. Our focus, not on a stand-alone product, but rather on a technology architecture, tying together products from the data center to the home, is gaining major traction with many of our customers. We are also seeing the expanding acceptance of our approach to business architecture across our leading customers. As an example, at one of our recent global technical advisory sessions with 30 of our largest customers and service providers and enterprise customers, I asked a key question, "Have we improved our position with you first in terms of our technology architecture over the last year? And second, in terms of our business architecture partnership over last year?" Over 80% of the participants said we have improved, while the remaining said that we were in the same position as a year ago. This feedback is well ahead of my expectations for this point in time. However, our challenge now is to repeat this in volume across our top thousand customers. We exit Q3 with a compelling financial position and an innovation engine from both a technology and a business model perspective that should position us to expand our leadership in the marketplace, while at the same time, moving effectively into 30-plus market adjacencies. Our internal start-ups, partnerships and acquisitions continue to fill out our architectural strategies. And we believe, innovation in our traditional routing and switching product families have had a very high probability at gaining market share. For those areas that Cisco can influence and control, we all feel that we are doing very well. The key market transition is relative to collaboration, virtualization and video networking, which will drive productivity and growth as the network loads for the next decade are continuing to evolve even faster than we thought just several quarters ago. Again, as an update, the new organization and business models have contributed in a major way to this quarter's productivity increase as measured by revenue per employee, which was a very strong 28% productivity increase year-over-year, not including the recent acquisition of TANDBERG. While we attempt to be very transparent with what we are seeing in the market and have established a good track record in terms of seeing trends early, our views do not tend to change every month or every quarter. And even when they do evolve, to change dramatically is really the exception. It is with this consistency of staying focused on the long term while not getting distracted by the short-term market activities that drives our strategy for future success. While we believe the recovery is accelerating, no one knows for sure how long it will be, how long it will last, how strong it will be or the extent of new job creation. But as we said in prior quarter conference calls, we are going to continue to be very aggressive to position ourselves for an optimistic view of global economic growth, while continuing to maintain tight financial measurements and aligning our resources to new opportunities. I believe Q3 was a very positive proof point that both our vision and strategy for our industry is evolving as expected and at the same time, our ability to execute on the vision and strategy as demonstrated by the very strong Q3 results. Given the Q3 financial results, productivity increases and successes in the new market, it is probably not a surprise to anyone that you will see us growing our expenses at a faster pace, as we continue to expand in our traditional business areas and move into the 30-plus market adjacencies. As discussed in last quarter, we expect our headcount to grow in support of our additional growth investments by 2,000 to 3,000 incremental external hires over the next several quarters. Net of acquisitions, we added approximately 1,000 of those employees in Q3. We expect to continue to be very aggressive in both our own internal innovation commitments as well as our partnerships and acquisitions strategies. For those Cisco employees listening, this growth in headcount will continue to be targeted towards strategic opportunities with focus on productivity improvements in many of our traditional functions by adding these resources to drive into these new market adjacencies. Also, as we've said in conference calls over the years, Cisco will always be affected by major economic changes, capital spending patterns, new and existing competitors, potential issues affecting our suppliers, and our ability to execute or not on our strategy, and other factors as discussed in our SEC filings. For purposes of our long-range goals as well as our quarterly guidance, we are also assuming that our vision of how the industry and the market will evolve will be accurate, and we will be effective in execution on that vision. With all this in mind, we will continue to provide our guidance with all the corporate caveats one quarter at a time and encourage each shareholder's not get too far ahead of themselves on building on the positives of another very strong quarter. Given all the uncertainties regarding the strength and shape of the recovery, concerns about the recovery possibly slowing and the unknown extent of job creation, we encourage you to wait for additional economic data before becoming too optimistic. This is what you would expect from Cisco, and I would encourage that from our shareholders. Before providing guidance for Q4, let me remind you that Q3 had an extra week, which we now estimate to have accounted for 4% to 5% in terms of the year-over-year growth. Also, as a reminder, when looking at comparisons, last year's Q4 fiscal year '09 to Q4 fiscal year '10, we are starting to see more typical comparisons. Q3 FY '09 was the bottom, as we said earlier, from a Cisco perspective and Q4 was the tipping point, delivering very solid sequential order and revenue growth compared to Q3, a nice way of saying that Q4 is becoming more in line from a comparison and a pattern we're used to seeing. In terms of Q4 revenue guidance, I will provide the full Cisco year-over-year revenue growth, including our acquisition of TANDBERG. Frank will provide additional details in his Q4 guidance discussion on sequential Q3 to Q4 comparison, as well as our year-over-year comparisons. With this discussion in mind, our revenue guidance for Q4 fiscal year '10, including our usual caveats as discussed earlier and in our financial reports, is for revenue growth, including TANDBERG, to increase 25% to 28% year-over-year. As we've shared with you in prior conference calls, we will now turn to our primary focus on growth in terms of year-over-year rather than sequential growth. In summary, we believe that we are well-positioned in the industry, due in part to our new business models in terms of vision, differentiation strategy and execution. We believe we are entering the next phase of the Internet as growth and productivity will center on collaboration, video and virtualization, enabled by network Web 2.0 technologies. We would do our best to provide the product architectures and the expertise to partner with our customers in the implementation of this collaborative capabilities from a technology and business perspective. We will also share with our customers how we have done this internally. In short, we're going to attempt to execute a strategy over the next decade that is very similar to what we did in the early 90s. And as we said before, it powered our growth for the next decade. Now Frank, let me turn it over to you.