John Chambers
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Frank, thank you very much. At this time, I would like to provide a more detailed discussion of the second quarter of fiscal year '11. The first area that I want to cover is the strength of our business momentum in the enterprise markets with a specific focus on U.S. enterprise. This review does not include our large global financials which I will cover shortly. There was very strong order growth in U.S. enterprise accounts, growing year-over-year in the high-20s to an annualized run rate of over $2.5 billion. Customers are increasingly buying both our technology and business architecture. The large global U.S. financial organizations, as you would expect, were hit hard from the regulatory effect in retail and investment banking areas, as well as write downs on bad debt. As a result, our sales in these financial organizations decreased in the mid teens. Next, I would like to expand our discussion in the enterprising commercial segment in more detailed terms, in terms of data center, virtualization, collaboration and mobility. As discussed earlier, our strong commit to the data center strategy is playing out as we had planned with strong growth in UCS, Nexus 5000, 2000, Nexus 7000, MDS, and the VM EMC Cisco partnership. Also, the EMC Cisco VMware partnership, our joint venture, has outstanding momentum in our customers, seeing value in the high, highly innovative and fully-integrated solution. We sold to 40 new customers in this past quarter alone, doubling the number of deals quarter-over-quarter and now with a pipeline of more than $1 billion. We are very pleased with the performance and look forward to our continued partnership. In our opinion, Cisco is leading the transformation of the data center market with a network-based approach to IT infrastructure in support of rapid IT services delivery, backed by a significant innovation. Cisco's unified fabric architecture has gained traction as the basis for the data center transformation. Cisco is also gaining share in related areas such as sand switching, where revenue grew 19% year-over-year. Cisco's vision for the integrated, collaborative architecture is gaining traction as more customers are deploying enterprise-wide video. Cisco is continuing to gain share in key product areas like Unified Communications and TelePresence. Cisco TelePresence is now deployed at 85% of the Fortune 100 and 75% of the Fortune 500. A recent survey shows intent to purchase Cisco TelePresence solutions of those potential customers surveyed with 86% favoring Cisco. Our end-to-end video architecture from TelePresence to desktop video, built upon our Medianet architecture is continuing to gain strong momentum both as individual products and as an architecture. AT&T and BT announced the commercially available inter-exchange services for their respective customers for TelePresence. This is after only five years since the introduction of TelePresence in the market. To many of you, it might sound like a long time. But in fact, it is a key milestone announcement done remarkably fast versus prior history, as it enables the AT&T and BT customers to call between the respective TelePresence exchanges. By comparison, the telephone network, PSTN if you will, took 62 years to achieve inter-exchange service, and the internet took 10 years to achieve inter-exchange connectivity. This announcement, along with our continued commitment to interoperability will accelerate mid cash flow effect for all TelePresence customers. Mobility, what we classify as wireless continues to expand in the enterprise in terms of its importance with recent polls showing that 40% of employees use Wi-Fi as their primary way of connecting to the network. We continue to expand our leadership in this area and saw our overall orders increase 39% year-over-year. Again, showing share gains in this market. In our service provider customers, Cisco technology and business architecture continues to gain traction. And most of the world service providers, we are gaining both market share in key product areas as well as shared wallet. On a global basis, the service provider increased by 9% year-over-year despite challenges in North America's set-top box business. From a revenue perspective, the ASR 9000 grew almost 500% year-over-year. The ASR 5000 as projected grew comfortably over 100% [audio gap]. The ASR 1000 grew approximately 7%. And therefore, the combined ASR product family grew approximately 68% to almost a $1.5 billion annualized rate. Our cable set-top box revenue was down 29% year-over-year, while our IP set-top box revenues were up 47% year-over-year for a combined decrease of 11% in Q2. Our Videoscape product announcements, as I said earlier, heat off the January Consumer Electronics Show, outlines a clear strategy on where we are going in terms of reinventing the TV experience. Enabled by Cisco, and with very tight partnerships with our service provider customers on delivering the Videoscape architecture. Videoscape brings entertainment together from an infinite sources of content and combines it with the social media, communications, and mobility to create a truly immersive TV experience. Our clear focus is to catch the market transition from client-centric architectures to the Videoscape network client based cloud architectures. Managing this transition remains our [indiscernible] and yet our challenge. Service providers focus on the data center virtualization and evolution of the cloud is resulting in an increased traction from Cisco, both from a technology and a business architecture. We are doing extremely well in challenging traditional data center incumbents in an approach from both a business innovation and a strategic partnership with the service provider partnership as they transition this cloud architecture into new revenue generation opportunities for them. Cisco is viewed by many as the preferred vendor of choice in part because of our technology and business architectural approach, including our BCE alliance, while at the same time being viewed as the more strategically aligned with the service providers with strategy rather than competing with them. At this time, I'd like to move into a discussion of several areas that you might have questions evolving from our earlier discussion. First, from public-sector perspective, we believe that we are not losing market share in the developed world governments. However, we believe that you're going to continue to see a rapid decrease in discretionary spending including IT and a majority of these governments. While 7% growth in public-sector orders year-over-year was not bad, our view is that this growth will be severely challenged over the next several quarters and will most likely grow in the mid- to low- single-digits. As you would expect, we will try to quickly transition sales focus to a share wallet, move into new opportunities or opportunities on the architectural basis in areas such as data center or collaboration within the government accounts, as well as focusing on, how do you invest in this technology? Do we save in the future opportunities to help these governments to address the challenges in cost reductions, education, healthcare and other areas? We believe that the growth in enterprise and commercial will be bound to public sector challenges in terms of growth. Second, in regards to switching revenues, we believe we are experiencing major causative product transitions in both our modular and fixed switching families and the accompanying architecture. Based upon what we're hearing from our customers, we are winning the architectural battles in our enterprising commercial accounts. A number of you asked at our financial analyst conference our views about market share challenges in terms of switching ports and questions on how we're doing on the low end of our product line and especially in terms of ports. We did aggressively address our challenge especially in the murky markets over the last quarter and reversed the trend in terms of ports market share. While expanding on the new product announcements at both the 2K and 3K product family, as well as the Nexus product families, we believe we are extremely well positioned from both a product leadership position and architectural value add perspective. Bottom line, in our opinion, we're winning in the market. But we need to focus more on selling architectures and value added at the higher end products to show switching revenue growth and improved margins. Now moving on to gross margins. As Frank discussed in the second Section, our decrease in gross margins was driven by a number of factors: Our primary focus in the areas that we contributed to a net favorable decrease and what we intend to do about it. As you'd expect we're forming a working group to expand our focus on improving gross margins and on becoming increasingly comfortable with our progress and future plans in this area, having reviewed it just last week after work on it for good little while. After our hope there will always be pressures in terms of product mix, in terms of areas such as UCF, which will continue to grow dramatically faster than most of -- the rest of our business. This is actually a good problem to have in this instance. Next, in regards to the challenges of our operating expenses growing faster than the orders. We will obviously continue to bring order growth and operating expenses more in line. You saw some of the improvements with our headcount staying approximately flat from Q1 to Q2. And as you would expect, we realigned resources and dramatically tightened and prioritized our primary areas of focus. In short, we are committed to protecting our long-term profitability models, and yet we will continue to add resources to growing areas of the business as needed. Before moving on to Q&A session, I would like to focus on five important key messages from today's call. First, Q2 evolved from the top and bottom line pretty much was expected. Strong growth in some areas, some challenge in others. Strengths we are in the global service providers, enterprise and commercial. Balance was reasonable across the U.S. and the rest of the world. Emerging markets continued on their strong run. Service providers showed strength in Europe and emerging markets while commercial showed strength in the U.S., emerging in Asia Pacific. New product revenues grew 15% year-over-year and now represents 39% of our total product business. Collaboration continues on a role with revenue growth in the high-30s and an annualized run rate of $4 billion. Data center virtualization cloud continues to be a very key area with growth of approximately roughly 60% revenue growth year-over-year. Wireless revenue year-over-year was off 34% while we continue to expand our mobility strategy, and our mobility strategy is a hole in the group as an annualized run rate of approximately $1.3 billion. There are several areas that we are watching and continue to face challenging. Some we can control, and some we cannot. Unfortunately, our concerns in public sector will continue to be challenged -- challenging in the developed world for the next several quarters. We saw the same challenges in the number of U.S. European and Japanese government accounts in Q2. Our challenges continued in our set-top boxes. However, our Videoscape architecture announced in January which focus on the new innovation TV experience is off to a good start and we are pleased with the overall service provider growth of 9% year-over-year. Consumer was more challenging than we anticipated, and you will see us adjust appropriately to bring efficiencies to the customer segment. However, it's important to remember that our consumer experience continues to bring leading-edge consumer expectations and products to our enterprise, commercial, and service provided customers. In terms of what is working, it is our strategy and architectural approach. Clearly, our strength in new markets such as collaboration, data center, virtualization, cloud, wireless and video architectures are gaining increased acceptance from our customers. Our service provider and enterprise partnerships are also strengthening and our pipeline of new opportunities will be the prove points. Our strategy in emerging markets including our continued resource investment in our emerging markets around the world is resulting in strong order growth. Our innovation cycle is very strong as witnessed by the transaction of new product and new market share gains in many of our key product areas. We are extremely comfortable with our product leadership and innovation in each key major product family. What can you expect from Cisco moving forward? As you saw this quarter, we expect backlog will increase and deferred revenue will decrease as well. We will continue to move aggressively in the market with our architectural approach and leverage the tight integration across our multiple product families. Internally, we will further prioritize our top opportunities and realign resources to ensure that we have the right level of investments and focus to lead in these key market transitions. As we said last quarter, we are going to do this with a higher level of accountability across our businesses, to ensure that we are meeting our targets. While I expect that over time our expense growth will at least match our order growth rate. We do believe our strategy is working and continued investment in innovation is essential to lead and create the future growth. Five. So how do I feel about the business? I believe that our strategy is right on course and we are beginning to utilize our services portfolio to assist our customers in achieving their business goals. Our timing and market transitions appears to be pretty solid. Our financial strength and case position is clearly a major competitive advantage, and we will use it as such. Our growth projections we believe reflect reality of today's business, for example on the public sector, where we've done extremely well over the last several years. However, I also believe we need to execute better with more focus on [indiscernible] and execution excellence, tied to our strategy and vision. This last remark is primarily for the Cisco family who is listening. Bottom line, I think we will look back on this period of time and wish we could have avoided it. And yet, it will make us stronger in the long run. As always, we expect and encourage you to provide field feedback on the areas where we are doing well and areas we need to improve. At this time, I would like to thank the entire Cisco family for their dedication, loyalty and sacrifices as we navigate these times. I could not be more proud or excited about how we are positioned for the future. As always, I want to thank our shareholders, customers employees and partners for their support and continued confidence in our ability to execute during rapid industry consolidation, market transition in challenging economic times. Blair, let me turn it back over to you for the Q&A.