William G. Quigley
Analyst · Brian Johnson with Barclays
Good morning, everyone, and thanks, Roger. Slide 11 summarizes Dana's first quarter 2013 financial performance, as well as the comparison to 2012. First quarter sales were $1.68 billion lower than a year ago by $288 million. As we guided earlier this year, there were a number of factors impacting this comparison. First, and as Roger mentioned, the impact of Light Vehicle Driveline program roll-offs and the leisure products divestiture completed in the second half of 2012, impacting our off-highway business lowered sales by $90 million and $11 million, respectively. We anticipated lower production volumes in certain key end markets, notably North America commercial vehicle and European and Asia off-highway markets. Lower demand in these markets accounted for about $159 million in the current quarter. Finally, currency lowered the quarterly comparison by about $30 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $158 million compared to $212 million in the first quarter of last year. While volume mix and currency lower adjusted EBITDA by about $46 million, the February 2013 devaluation of the Venezuela bolívar further lowered adjusted EBITDA by $11 million, which is reflected in the results of our Light Vehicle Driveline business for the quarter. As Roger stated, we expect to recover this devaluation impact over the remainder of 2013. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 9.4%, 130 basis points lower than last year, with the impact of the Venezuelan devaluation accounting for almost 70 basis points. Net income totaled $42 million compared to $70 million a year ago. While adjusted EBITDA was lower than a year ago, offsetting factors included lower tax, restructuring and depreciation expense in the quarter, which provided a benefit to year-over-year comparisons. Diluted adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.28 per share compared to $0.44 in 2012, reflecting lower net income after adjusting for restructuring, certain amortization expenses and other non-recurring items. Capital spending for the quarter was $29 million, $5 million lower compared to a year ago. Free cash flow for the quarter was a use of $44 million, $143 million better than a year ago, which reflected over $150 million voluntary contribution we made to our U.S. pension plans in early 2012. Slide 12 provides a comparison of our consolidated sales, a change by business segment, as well as the other key drivers on a year-over-year basis. On a regional basis, North America sales totaled $722 million in the quarter, lower than last year by $242 million and represented 43% of sales compared to 49% a year ago, reflecting the impact of light vehicle program roll-offs, lower commercial vehicle demand and the shifting of some off-highway production to China that we completed last year. Europe sales totaled $503 million in the quarter or about 30% of total sales, lower than last year by $49 million, reflecting continued softness across most end markets, in particular, construction and mining equipment demand impacting our off-highway business. South America sales totaled $220 million in the quarter, slightly lower than a year ago and represented about 13% of sales compared to 12% a year ago. While we experienced recovery in commercial vehicle demand in Brazil in the first quarter, this benefit was somewhat offset by currency movements. Asia-Pacific sales totaled $231 million, $7 million higher than a year ago and represented 14% of total sales, reflecting relocated off-highway production, as well as a ramp up of production in newly launched light vehicle programs. The chart to the bottom left highlights the change in sales by business segment, while the chart to the right highlights the key drivers of our year-over-year sales performance. Currency lowered sales by $30 million, primarily impacting our Light Vehicle Driveline and Commercial Vehicle Driveline business segments. Program roll-offs in Light Vehicle Driveline accounted for $90 million of the year-over-year change in sales, volume and mix, including the impact to off-highway driveline of $11 million for the divestiture completed last year totaled about $170 million, of which $143 million was attributable to lower end market demand, impacting our commercial vehicle and off-highway businesses. Slide 13 provides a similar comparison of adjusted EBITDA for the quarter with the year-over-year change by business unit presented at the bottom left and the key drivers presented to the right. As highlighted, adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $158 million or about 9.4% of sales compared to $212 million or 10.7% of sales, principally reflecting lower sales and the Venezuelan currency impact. As we expect to recover the Venezuela currency impact over the remainder of the year, if you adjust for this impact, adjusted EBITDA margin in the current quarter was 10.1% and did represent a 50 basis point improvement sequentially from our fourth quarter results or a contribution margin of plus 20% on incremental sales of about $70 million. In the next 2 slides, we will review the impact of these drivers for each of the businesses in some further detail. This quarter, we have provided some additional color for each business similar to the consolidated view and we've highlighted the key drivers for sales and segment EBITDA performance for each one. Light Vehicle Driveline sales were lower by $108 million or about 15% and per our previous comments, represented about $90 million attributable to planned program roll-offs. Segment EBITDA of $41 million was lower than a year ago by $22 million, which also includes the impact of the Venezuela currency devaluation. EBITDA margin for the quarter was 6.6%, including this impact, yet, as previously mentioned, we expect to offset the majority of this over the remainder of 2013, which is reflected in our full year guidance. If you were to exclude the Venezuela currency impact, segment EBITDA would be about 8.4%, slightly lower than a year ago in the fourth quarter of 2012. As we look at the key drivers year-over-year and reflect on the impacts of program roll-offs and currency, the business was mostly in line with last year, the major remaining driver being unfavorable mix in South America. As we move through the rest of 2013, the impact of program roll-offs on sales comparisons will lessen, with the year-over-year change for the next 2 quarters being slightly higher than $100 million and diminishing into the fourth quarter. Commercial Vehicle Driveline sales of $458 million were lower by $93 million or 17% compared to a year ago, driven principally by lower demand in North America and Europe of about $85 million, partially offset by a recovery in Brazil and currency of $17 million. Segment EBITDA was $41 million, $20 million lower than last year due to lower sales. For Commercial Vehicle, the first quarter comparison is certainly challenged due to North America Class 8 vehicle production being lower by 20% -- 28% year-over-year or about 22,000 units. While South America medium and heavy duty vehicle production is up about 24% year-on-year, this increase represents a little over 9,000 units in comparison to North America. At the bottom, we've also provided our fourth quarter 2012 sales and segment EBITDA results. And on a sequential basis, both sales and margins did improve as we continue to work through what we hope to be the bottom of the curve. Off-highway driveline first quarter sales of $343 million were lower than last year by $75 million, of which $11 million related to the divestiture of our leisure products business in the third quarter of last year. Lower end market demand in construction and mining markets, which we guided to just last February, was the main driver of the decline. Off-highway posted segment EBITDA of $41 million in the quarter or 12% of sales, 30 basis points higher than a year ago, reflecting the favorable impact of pricing, materials and other cost reduction initiatives. From fourth quarter 2012 levels, sales increased about 7% while segment EBITDA improved 80 basis points, reflecting favorable contribution on both incremental sales, as well as the impact of cost initiatives. Power Technologies sales of $256 million in the current quarter were lower than a year ago by $12 million, with about $3 million attributable to currency and $9 million due to lower volume, largely reflecting continued weakness in Europe. Segment EBITDA of $36 million or 14.1% of sales was $4 million lower than a year ago, reflecting the impact of lower volumes and slightly elevated engineering spend for new product development. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2012, Power Technologies improved segment EBITDA margins by 120 basis points, reflecting favorable contribution margins on increased sales levels. Free cash flow for the quarter is highlighted on Slide 16. Free cash flow was a use of $44 million in the quarter compared to a use of $187 million in the first quarter last year. Adjusting for the $150 million voluntary contribution to our U.S. pension plans in the first quarter of 2012, free cash flow use was slightly higher in the quarter. Working capital was use a $98 million for the year or for the quarter compared to $140 million a year ago. While sales are lower on a year-over-year basis, on a sequential basis, sales in the current quarter increased by $67 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2012, which contributed to this use, as well as other normal seasonal flows. Capital spending was $29 million, $5 million lower than a year ago, while net cash interest payments totaled $28 million in the quarter. The majority representing semi-annual interest payments on our senior unsecured notes. Cash taxes were $19 million, $3 million lower than a year ago, reflecting the timing of estimated payments. Restructuring cash outflows totaled $10 million, $2 million higher than last year and largely in line with our full year guidance. Net pension contributions for the quarter were $60 million compared with $165 million in the first quarter of last year. Similar to previous quarters, we expect to generate favorable free cash flow over the coming quarters driven by a more favorable volume environment, driving increased earnings, as well as continued discipline in our management of working capital and investment. Slide 17 highlights our cash, debt and liquidity positions at the end of March. Cash and marketable securities totaled slightly more than $1 billion, while outstanding debt was $923 million providing a net cash position of $121 million. Debt balances increased slightly from year end 2012 levels due to the timing of some local borrowing in Brazil versus the maturity of the existing facilities. Total liquidity stood at plus $1.4 billion, including $391 million of availability under our U.S. and European credit facilities. As Roger mentioned, we continue to return capital to our shareholders, declaring dividends again in the first quarter of 2013 for both outstanding, common and preferred shares, as well as executing upon our share repurchase program. In the current quarter, we repurchased about 1.4 million of outstanding common shares at a cost of $24 million compared with the purchase of about 1.066 million shares and $15 million utilized in the fourth quarter of 2012. As Roger mentioned in his opening remarks, through April 23, we have repurchased about 3.6 million of shares at a cumulative cost of $58 million. One last comment before I move on to our full year financial guidance. We continue to have constructive dialogue at the board level related to Dana's current capital structure, capital allocation approach and available alternatives. While we continue to execute our current authorized repurchase program, as well as dividend practice, this is a priority with management and the board, including, but not limited to, evaluation of the possibility of further adjustment to the size and pace of our existing repurchase authorization. While we've made some adjustments to certain end market production estimates for the year, our overall full year 2013 financial targets remain unchanged from our previous guidance as highlighted on Slide 18. We expect sales to be about $7.1 billion for 2013, slightly lower than last year. And as Roger mentioned, we continue closely monitor the North American commercial vehicle market. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $800 million to $820 million. As we previously discussed, while we continue to action those levers, which we manage, an improving volume environment is certainly an important driver of our adjusted EBITDA performance. We expect diluted adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.88 to $1.95 for 2013, which excludes the impact of any future exercise of our share repurchase program. Capital spending remains in the range of $180 million to $200 million and free cash flow in the range of $240 million to $260 million for the year. Slide 19 highlights the progression and the key drivers of our full year sales and adjusted EBITDA margin targets using our first quarter performance as the base. On the sales front, this chart annualizes our first quarter sales and highlights the key drivers that provide an expected increase in sales of about $400 million to achieve our 2013 full year target of $7.1 billion. We expect currency to be a headwind of about $60 million, offset by an expected $410 million in sales volume increases, of which almost half benefits our Commercial Vehicle Driveline business. We expect pricing recovery actions to increase sales by about $50 million over the rest of the year as well. On the adjusted EBITDA margin front, we continue to diligently focus on those key items that will drive margin expansion over the remainder of 2013 to reach our full year target. These items are outlined at the bottom of this slide. While currency will be a slight headwind, we expect incremental sales volume and our ability to favorably convert on that volume to contribute about 100 basis point improvement from first quarter levels. We also expect cost recoveries, which includes the impact of the Venezuelan devaluation to contribute about a 70 basis point improvement in margins. Finally, we continue to target and execute manufacturing overhead costs to material performance initiatives across all of the businesses, which we expect will drive a further 40 basis point improvement from first quarter levels. Highlighted on the right of the slide, we have provided the full year sales and segment EBITDA targets for each of our business units, which remain in line with our previous guidance. As highlighted, Commercial Vehicle Driveline performance is dependent upon expecting improvement in the production environment during the remainder of the year. In summary, while certain of the end markets we participate in were not as cooperative in the first quarter as we initially expected, as well as the effect of currency movements, our results are largely in line with our expectations. We are confident in our operating team's ability to leverage and capitalize upon expected production volume increases and to continue to effectively manage cost and investment as evidenced by their recent past performance. This concludes our presentation and now we will turn the call back to the operator for questions. Thank you.