Earnings Labs

Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 29, 2015

$82.60

+0.33%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.
Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone. Welcome to the Diebold, Incorporated's Third Quarter 2015 Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Steve Virostek. Please go ahead.

Stephen A. Virostek - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Hannah. I'd like to welcome everyone who's joining us today for Diebold's third quarter earnings call. Joining me today are Andy Mattes, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Chapman, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In addition to our earnings release issued this morning, we've posted presentation slides on the IR page of diebold.com. We will be referencing the presentation during our commentary and we encourage you to follow along. Today's webcast is being recorded and a replay of the webcast will be made available later today on deibold.com. On slide two of our presentation, we disclosed that we'll be making references to non-GAAP financial information on this webcast. Consistent with the company's prior practice, we exclude restructuring charges and certain non-routine expenses from our non-GAAP financial metrics. We believe that these non-GAAP metrics provide a helpful indicator of the company's baseline performance. And a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP metrics is included in the supplemental materials at the end of today's presentation. Moving to the slide number three, I'll remind you that certain comments made during our webcast may be characterized as forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Please keep in mind that the information discussed is only current as of today and subsequent events may render the information in this webcast out of date. I'm sure many of the participants are aware that on October 17, Diebold announced that the company had entered into a non-binding term sheet agreement with Wincor Nixdorf regarding the key parameters of a potential strategic business combination. Entering into a…

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our first question from Gil Luria with Wedbush Securities.

Gil B. Luria - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Yes. Thanks for taking my question. So you discussed the order growth in the quarter. On a constant currency basis, it still looks good. How about the TCV type metrics, the services contracts? How are those shaping up as compared to last quarter and last year? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Gil, thanks for the question. Last year the number was anemic. We said we were around about 150 million-ish at our last call. We've set ourselves a target to be around about 200 million for the year, so we've blown through the target by quite a mile and the Wells contract is just an incredible add to the portfolio and, most importantly, it's an incredible verification of the strategy what we're taking. If you think about what that means and you translate that into your model, on average, these contracts are five-year contracts. So do the math, that's roughly $60 million per annum. Then you've got some runoff that you have from the previous year where the service business was positively impacted by some of the Win 7 upgrade. But net-net, you're looking at least at a $40 million-ish upside to our service revenue going into 2016 that's baked as of January 1. The other thing that was very encouraging, we told you about a very large services – multi-vendor services contract at the last call with another top three bank in the U.S. Between then and now, we've taken over that complete base. The whole park is up and running and we did not have one hiccup along the route. Both the customer as well as our teams have done a tremendous job, but we know we're onto something both from a sales, but what's also equally as important for the customer from a delivery point of view that we're able to delight our customers and grow our business.

Gil B. Luria - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. And then in terms of the delta from last quarter and your revenue guidance, China and Brazil have been challenged and then you have currency. In terms of the change to guidance, how much of it is the shift in currency versus China and Brazil getting worse? Is the change in guidance entirely currency or have China and Brazil gotten worse than what we were talking about three months ago? Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: I think the short answer is its primarily just tied to the currency and so if you look at where we're at on the FSS basis, we're right in line on a fixed rate at approximately 6% growth for the full year.

Gil B. Luria - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

And so then last thing on China and Brazil, just could you remind us of total revenue, how much do China and Brazil compromise – comprise – how much of revenue comprise of China and Brazil as of this year? Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: So for this year for China we're at approximately – it's approximately a $200 million business, is what we've talked about before. It's roughly about 40%, 45% of the total Asia-Pacific business and you should think of that probably weighted around 60% product, somewhere in the 60% range, then 40% on the service side. On Brazil, you know it's roughly a $300 million business, give or take.

Gil B. Luria - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Next we'll go to Joe Radigan with KeyBanc.

Joe K. Radigan - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, guys. First, a couple questions on Electronic Security divestiture. What will the tax impact be from the sale there? And will there be any hung overhead cost that will burden the rest of the P&L? And then maybe, Chris, maybe you can give a framework on how to think about the impact on 2016? Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yes. So let's just talk about the high-level pieces for the ES business. First of all, with regards to timing, the expectation is we're going to close, I would expect, in the January timeframe. We have to clear the typical regulatory hurdles and a couple of other pre-close items. When you think about it from a full year impact in 2015 first, it's roughly a $345 million business. That comes through – and again, this just a rough number, around 7.5% operating margin on that. From a calendarization standpoint, Q1 is usually the lowest quarter, and then it's pretty steady after that. Q2 through Q4 in this business, it's not as volatile as, or doesn't swing as widely as our FFS business does. And so if you think about that in order of magnitude, apply a pretty similar framework into 2016. And then with regards to stranded costs and some of the items that we're going to have to deal with, overall, this business has been fairly standalone for a while. We will have a handful of stranded costs that we will have to ultimately be deal with. But I think on the positive side, with the growth that we're seeing in our overall multi-vendor service activity, we're really going to be able to leverage the overall organization as we're growing in our services business in North America. Those are the high-level pieces, Joe.

Joe K. Radigan - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

That's very helpful. Thank you. And then what happens to the Electronic Security business in Latin America? Is that still part of the long-term plan this year? And will you continue to report security as a separate segment going forward into next year once the North American ES business is gone? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Let me start with the business. The Electronic Security business that we have in LatAm, as well as in Asia, predominantly in India, will be part of our go-forward operations and it will be primarily part of our service organization and our service numbers in those countries. And I'll let Chris talk to the reporting. Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. With regards to the segment, we will clarify that in the first half of 2016. The initial thought as of now is the security business is going to be broken out as is through our 10-K and then we will definite how we want to handle that with our 10-Q in the first quarter of 2016.

Joe K. Radigan - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then the last question. You mentioned you got a win at Bradesco. I mean that used to be a pretty significant account for you guys. So is this an indication of possibly more positive things to come or can you talk about the kind of the moving pieces around that? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We think it is indicative of a few things. First, in a country that has enough political turmoil, winning with private banks, very, very important. Secondly, as you know, they've done a joint venture with our competitors, so we were not in the account in a meaningful way for the last years. And the third thing which is really the most exciting is in the last go-around they had a – they bid out, they turned to Diebold for their high-end machines, fully-loaded, highest software content, the most complicated solution, the most value-add to the customer went to Diebold. And we're super excited about that and, yes, we do see that as a springboard going forward.

Joe K. Radigan - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

Next we'll go to Saliq Khan with Imperial Capital.

Saliq Jamil Khan - Imperial Capital LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Hi, Andy. Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi.

Saliq Jamil Khan - Imperial Capital LLC

Analyst

As you're looking at the Electronics Security divestiture, it certainly does increase the overall focus on financial self-service, but it was growing at double the rate of the overall industry. How did you and your team weigh the costs and benefits when making the decision? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: That's a great question, Saliq. You see it's a great business. We grew the business organically and we outgrew the market basically for as long as I've been with the company. But for me it's a little bit like raising a kid, taking it all the way through high school, it gets great scores and now it's time for the kid to go to a great college. There's only so much you can do in this space organically, and we think the business, given its drive and its assets, deserves an even brighter future, and we're looking for a way to continue to outgrow the industry and most importantly also to make sure that our customers will continue to benefit from innovation in the security space. And when two parts of your business are in a market that's fundamentally transforming, the electronic security market is transforming in its own rate as well as the self-service market, and you've got to ask yourself how much capacity do you have? How much attention can you give to two fundamental transformations? And then our thought was we've got to double down on the core business of the company and we need to make sure that Tony Byerly and his team, who've done an incredibly great job, will have an even brighter future and our customers have even better innovations going forward.

Saliq Jamil Khan - Imperial Capital LLC

Analyst

Now if you look at the remaining portions of security, which is physical security going forward, it has been slow growing versus the Electronic Security. How do you reverse the trend that we've seen over the last several quarters of physical security not growing at the rate that you wish it did? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, you've been kind. It's actually been shrinking for the last years and – but the big thing is the rate of decline has come down dramatically and it's providing a very stable floor to our service organization. As I said on the call, about 80% of that business is service, and by the way it's all in branches for financial customers. And here's the flip side: as customers are not moving out of old branches into new branches, as branch transformation is definitely on everybody's mind but banks are moving at their own pace. It's actually an in-built hedge in our numbers where branch transformation might be coming over a longer period of time until the banks rolled it out in mass quantities. The physical security that we provide in the branches actually provides a continuous service revenue stream at a very accretive margin. So net-net, we stopped the decline; we're now looking at ways to include it into branch transformation solutions; and I think I highlighted on the call that if you're looking at next-gen solutions, let's say, around the drive-up space, that's where these skills come in really handy and we want to benefit from that.

Saliq Jamil Khan - Imperial Capital LLC

Analyst

Andy, just one last question for you, then I'll hop back in the queue. As you've announced the partnership with Citigroup when it came to the iris-scanning ATMs, to be able to better reduce the overall cash withdrawal time to around 10 seconds or so, within your research, do you believe that the end-user will be willing to, A, submit the biometrics, but on the other hand, what security measures will be put in place to secure the biometrics once they have been submitted? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: There's – that can be a long conversation. So let me just rephrase this. In the U.S. we currently have a very skeptical consumer attitude towards biometrics. But we've seen in other parts of the world where biometrics are a standard already today. Think about palm readers, fingerprints, what have you not. When crime and insecurity becomes more topical for consumers, the question is – you change your weighting on: do I over-rotate on the sense of personal privacy or do I want to make sure my transaction is secure? And if you take a look at all the stuff that was happening, if you think about the big breach at Target, people are getting more and more conscious that safety is very important. And now the question is what's the most convenient thing? And the other aspect is, ever since the iPhone has added fingerprint to its authentification, people have gotten way more relaxed about the idea of using biometrics. I'm a huge fan of biometrics. I believe it's a level of security that we're under-levering in this country, and it would provide consumer protection combined with the added benefit that you can reduce all the other steps that machines normally go through to identify people. And hence, you reduce the time to do what you want to do at the machine, which is to do your transactions.

Saliq Jamil Khan - Imperial Capital LLC

Analyst

Great. Thank you, Andy.

Operator

Operator

Next we'll go to Joan Tong with Sidoti & Company. Joan K. Tong - Sidoti & Co. LLC: Good morning, guys. I have a question regarding like the multi-vendor service business. Obviously, you've done a great job another $150 million in contracts during the quarter. And just want to see if you can give us like a high level, how you think about like maybe 2016? What's really in the pipeline? The pipeline profile? How should we think about it going forward and then the growth rate and all that? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: That's a great question. I can tell you the pipeline is expanding on all levels: small, medium and large. But large deals, they're always binary, so it's very hard to forecast them. I mean, you cannot forecast half of Wells. It's either in or out. So I got to dodge the bullet on the forecast number. But the thing that you got to see is when we're moving to branch transformation, when the cash is no longer at the teller, but it's in the machine, uptime of the machines is the single most important issue to any retail banker, because without the machine, half of the branch won't work. Diebold service has been ranked number one in every study that I've seen in the last two years in every part of the world. So being able to provide customers the level of service, the level of quantity, the level of response time that we are able to provide at a reasonable price point is a great value-add and we expect this business to grow. We – I've said before, our next milestone is we think that our services software-hardware mix is going to be 60/40 and we're going to push…

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Matt Summerville with Alembic Global Advisors.

Matt J. Summerville - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Hey. Good morning. A couple things. First, I want to talk about Brazil a little bit more. If I look at slide 17, your Latin America profitability, both in the quarter and year-over-year, I have to conclude you're losing a bit of money in Brazil. Probably not a small amount, although smaller given what the currency has done. So I really want to understand what you're doing to make this business profitable going forward and whether or not there's incremental cost actions that you're evaluating or are under way now. And if that's the case, why not raise the cost-out bar that you've set? And then I have a follow-up. Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. Let me first just address the profitability in the quarter. And so we've talked about the $9.3 million write-off that we had. Excluding that impact of that $9.3 million write-off, Brazil would have been profitable in the quarter. On a year-over-year basis, we're also then bumping up against last year. We had a fairly large lottery project that we delivered on which was $50 million and so you have the combination of the write-off plus bumping up against a fairly tough compare from last year that is causing the variance really. When you look at it with regards to actions, we talked a little bit about this in the last quarter and we've had some further actions along those lines. I'm not going to give the exact number, but I will say we have reduced the overall head count in Brazil by a meaningful number and are continuing to take appropriate dealering (50:07) actions in Brazil as well to right-size the organization such that the Financial Self-Service business stands on its own two feet and drives a nice profit stream for us regardless of getting potential one-off upsides from the Brazil other business.

Matt J. Summerville - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

And then with respect to – so you're in the midst of a divestiture. You obviously are in talks about a potential acquisition. Next year, in 2016, I believe is the last year of the turnaround grant, I believe, you've referred to it as, and you've talked about free cash flow being the metric for 2016. So how does all this M&A feed into how the Board is looking at that in terms of the yardstick, if you will, by which to judge senior management? And I guess what conversion rate should we be looking for given cash flow's a little disappointing this year relative to what you guys were thinking previously? Thank you. Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. I would have a couple of comments on this, Matt, I think. Number one, if you look at our current cash flow and some of the items that have come through and impacting it, number one, we've talked about multi-vendor service and we've taken very specific actions there. In a longer-term view, as Andy talked about approximately net $40 million increase to the service business in North America next year, but we've also had to make an investment and we've had an increase in our service inventory of approximately $15 million to $20 million as well to be able to service all of these units that we've brought on. Again, that's looking long-term. Number two, with pressure on the cash flow this year, we've increased our restructuring by about $5 million and, again, that's taking this longer-term view of getting costs out and taking the appropriate actions now and not sitting back and just admiring these problems. And then additionally, we've had deal costs against some of these strategic things that we're doing. Unfortunately,…

Matt J. Summerville - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next, we'll go to Brendan Hardin with Northcoast Research.

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Hey, Andy. Hey, Chris. This is Kartik. Hey, Andy, wanted to ask you about the servicing business and maybe if you could just talk about why you're winning these businesses. Has something changed on the marketplace? Is it how you're going to market? What's the catalyst that's allowing you to win? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Kartik...

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Yes. Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: ...the more advanced the machines get, the more processes you put on self-service. The more you drive branch transformation, it's becoming a services play. It's all about uptime, it's all about availability, it's all about ease of use, it's all about remote service capability, and ultimately, it's all about a service model. And as you know from your own research, we score in every one of those buckets ahead of any competitor out there. And I mean, I cannot give you the customer, but I can assure you that of the four deals we won this year, one of them already gave us testament that other people's machine run better under Diebold management than they've ever run before under the management of the original manufacturer. And that's why we're winning. It's dedication to customers and having the best service. We've said service is our core business going forward and we're being rewarded by our customers.

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Analyst

And then, Andy, you talked about restructuring China so that you can now go under the new rules that they have there. Will that change the economics? And if so, do you expect much of an impact? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes, yes, and a yes. But it's too early to squawk. Just think about it this way, Kartik. The only way that you're going to do business in China is if you're being categorized as Chinese in the bucket. And I mean, let's be very clear, everything we're talking about is a hardware play because I think I said it on the call, our service business in China is actually growing very nicely. So, how do you come up with a hardware structure where we're more Chinese than we are today, where we're not having a multi-national company discount but where we have a local partnership premium? But you got to do this in a way that's compliant with SEPA. You got to do it in a way that you have a serious business partner that's predictable, that understands how U.S. companies tick and click, and there are many, many pitfalls if you don't do your homework. And that's exactly what we're doing right now. We're very encouraged with the progress and the options that we have on the radar screen, and we hope that we will be in a position on our next earnings call, we will be able to outline the China strategy going forward. But once again, we're not sitting back and admiring the problem. We want to make sure we take our own destiny in our own hands.

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Analyst

And last question for you, Chris. Fourth quarter, you're expecting a pretty big free cash flow number to kind of get to your guidance. How much visibility do you have to that number? And I guess maybe this might be difficult, but what percentage do you feel like you have visibility to and what percentage of the business has to come through in the fourth quarter so you can achieve your target? Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: First with regards to the number in the fourth quarter, if you look back the last four years, the fourth quarter expectation is basically in line with what we've done in those last several year-ends. And so it's pretty much typical from a seasonality that we deal with. With regards to visibility, obviously there are always some timing things that are outside of your control. I feel good about the focus of the organization. The time that we spend on it is significant. We goal our organization on the metrics around working capital and free cash flow and we obviously control certain aspects of that and we'll look to deliver on our commitments.

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Thank you very much. I really appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Next, we'll go to Meghna Ladha with Susquehanna.

Meghna Ladha - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

Hi. Thank you. Good morning. Most of my questions have been answered. Just a quick one, Andy. What do you think is the long-term growth outlook of the ATM industry globally and what gives you confidence it can grow at that rate? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: That's a great question, Meghna. The way you got to think about it is that BRIC, at least for the next three years, has pretty much been reduced to I, which means if you take a look at RBR reports and all of that, once you exclude BRIC growth, which the market research gurus had it round about 9% in units, you'll end actually up with a low-single digit unit growth scenario and which again revalidates our approach to more services because low-single digit units would actually translate into flat dollars if you subtract the 5% headwind on the pricing. So in order to remain in the single-digit growth rate outlook going forward, all of that has to come from services and from software.

Meghna Ladha - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

Thanks, Andy. Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Now, here's some good news on the services side. Most market research companies do not have the services opportunity in their numbers. I want to say 80% of the spend that all the banks around the globe have every year to run, maintain their ATMs is currently in-house spend within the cost centers of the banks. It's not in any of the TAM numbers. Once you add that business and you turn that from an insourced model into an outsourced model, into a partnership model, in a managed services model, all of a sudden you're starting to add meaningful chunks of market opportunity to the TAM. In my mind, we're about to triple the TAM in our industry between now and then end of the decade.

Meghna Ladha - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next, we'll go to Justin Bergner with Gabelli & Company. Justin Laurence Bergner - Gabelli & Company: Good morning, Andy. Good morning, Chris. Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Hey, Justin. Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Morning. Justin Laurence Bergner - Gabelli & Company: Just a couple clarification questions. The write-off or the bad debt in Brazil, what exactly is it affecting on the balance sheet? Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: So you would have a combination of an impact to inventory, and that's roughly, I think, two-thirds of the amount, and then you have the other impact, which would be impacting on finance receivables varied between – there would have been a short- and long-term component but in the finance receivables. Justin Laurence Bergner - Gabelli & Company: Okay. Great. On the subject of receivables, how much of the $20 million reduction in free cash flow guidance is related to accounts receivable? I mean, inventory seems sort of in check but receivables seems a bit high again at the end of this quarter. Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: It's not. It's really the other items that I've talked about. Overall, expectations on receivables are in line with where we've ended historically in previous year-ends. Justin Laurence Bergner - Gabelli & Company: Thank you. Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And then on receivables, let me reiterate. Chris was mentioning it in his prepared remarks. We've cleared a very, very big milestone for our company with our Oracle upgrade. It was mandatory for us to make sure that next year's service invoices, those are 12-month invoices, are being done on the new system because…

Stephen A. Virostek - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Good. Operator, I believe that's the last question for today. I want to thank everyone for joining us. If you have any calls, please dial us up at Investor Relations. Thank you.