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Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 11, 2016

$82.60

+0.33%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone. Welcome to Diebold, Incorporated's Fourth Quarter 2015 Full Year Financial Results Conference Call. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I'd like to turn the call over to Vice President and Chief Communications Officer, Steve Virostek. Please go ahead.

Stephen A. Virostek - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Jennifer. And I'd like to welcome all of our participants to Diebold's fourth quarter and year-end earnings call for 2015. Joining me today are Andy Mattes, President and CEO; and Chris Chapman, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. During today's webcast we'll be referring to slides, which have been posted to the IR page of diebold.com. And a replay of our webcast will also be available later today on the website. Our discussion today will focus on results from continuing operations unless otherwise noted. Please keep in mind that these results from our North American electronic security business are included in income from discontinued operations. We have finalized the divestiture of this business on February 1 of 2016. On slide two, Diebold's presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe provide a helpful indicator of the company's baseline performance. We've provided a reconciliation of these metrics to their respective and most directly comparable GAAP metrics in our supplemental materials. Slide number three contains a reminder that certain comments made during the webcast may be characterized as forward-looking statements. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements, and additional information on these factors is contained in the company's SEC filings. Please keep in mind that forward-looking information discussed is only current as of today, and subsequent events may render certain information out of date. Slide four encourages investors and shareholders to read our Form S-4 Registration Statement and offer document which pertains to Diebold's offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Wincor Nixdorf. These documents are available on the websites listed on this slide. And now I'll hand the call to Andy. Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Steve. Good morning and welcome. Thank…

Operator

Operator

And we'll go first to Gil Luria with Wedbush Securities.

Gil B. Luria - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Management

Thank you. Good morning. First of all, I wanted to ask about the current run rate exposure to the BRC countries. With the China product ramping down really to zero this year, if you look at just the China services run rate, what you still have in Brazil and if there's anything Russia, what percent of revenue does that comprise now? And how does that compare to what those three countries added up to in, say, 2014? Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Gil, let me level set here a little bit. If you look at 2015 first, excluding Brazil and excluding China, the company would've grown on the top line about 5.5% in a constant currency basis. As we move into 2016 and look at those overall exposures, we have, as we've indicated, put into our guidance the impact of the Inspur transaction being complete roughly in the second quarter of the year. And so on a year-on-year basis, order of magnitude on the product side, that's probably a $50 million to $60 million headwind on the product revenue that we have included into the overall guidance that we've provided. So that's the impact from the down, when we look at China year on year; and again, we expect the service piece to continue to be growing. And obviously, with the nature of this transaction, we're going to bring in the Inspur kiosk service revenue into our existing business as well, so that'll actually give us a little bit of an increase. But that's a much smaller base than what we currently have today. Looking at Brazil, year on year, we have planned for fairly moderate performance in that operation, minus the Brazil other, where we have the $45 million in backlog which is tied to the floating business, which we are again – where we received the order in the fourth quarter.

Gil B. Luria - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Management

But safe to say that combined they comprise less than 15% of your revenue in 2016? Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Correct.

Gil B. Luria - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Management

And then, Chris, if you wouldn't mind, the debt financing for the Wincor deal. Could you walk us through where a couple of those different pieces, if the terms are set, the prices are set, what your outlook is for being able to secure that debt and the – in the terms that were decided upon or terms that are close to those? Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. Let me give you just a couple of the high-level pieces. But first I would start off, whenever we entered into the transaction based on the requirements up-front, we had a fund certain requirement from a German perspective. And so again, we locked in the entire structure with our banks up-front, which essentially says that we have a max pricing structure, an interest rate structure that's tied to that in the event that you can't go out and utilize the high-yield market and you've got to have the bridge from the banks on that. But if you look at the major pieces here, we locked in, in the December timeframe when we announced that, that we have the first piece of the debt structure in place with our $520 million revolver and the two term loans – term A loans of $480 million. So that first $1 billion is in place. If you look at the implied interest on that, it's basically LIBOR plus 200 currently. Max exposure could go LIBOR plus 225, so that's running somewhere 2.3%, 2.5%, depending on a couple of factors. If you look at the term B in terms of max pricing on that, again, if you went to the extreme on that, you'd be looking at LIBOR plus 6.75%, so maybe around 7.5% on that at a max. And then the last piece, the high yield, that market is sitting somewhere in the 8% range today. And again, it's been a frothy market in that area. But if you look at that in terms of the structure we have in place, the max financing we would see on that would be 11%. And so just, if you take all of that and you blend it all together, we're looking at a blended interest rate, assuming market rates as of today and access to the markets of somewhere in the low-5% range. If you looked at this and looked at our debt agreements on the max structure, you'd be in the low-7% range from an interest standpoint. And so again, that gives you a little bit of a mix of the pieces.

Gil B. Luria - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Management

Got it. Very helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Justin Bergner with Gabelli & Company. Justin Laurence Bergner - Gabelli & Company: Good morning, Andy. Good morning, Chris. Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Morning. Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Good morning. Justin Laurence Bergner - Gabelli & Company: I guess I wanted to start with the working capital challenges that affected the second half of the year. Would you be able to sort of maybe rank order or quantify the three different qualitative issues that you highlighted that were affecting free cash flow and working capital? Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. If you just walk down in terms of order of prominence, the total AR performance, you look at that and up approximately 12 days over prior-year performance. You can do the quick math and every day is worth about $7 million, $7.5 million to us. If you look at that and the impact we had in North America, that was roughly $60 million, $65 million impact on our overall AR balance that, performing at past levels and based on the mix of business in our payment terms, that we should've performed at a higher level there. If you didn't look at the pre-pay activity, the pre-pay activity across prominently – predominantly China and North America, that was roughly a $30 million impact year on year. And again, there was a change in behaviors that we've seen there. The China, obviously, that behavior – we don't look at that coming back and that model is going to be changed forward. So again, that, we'll just say resets as we move forward and won't be a 2016 concern because the model is changed. And then the last item…

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Joe Radigan with KeyBanc.

Joe K. Radigan - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Thanks. Good morning. First, on the services gross margin, how much of the improvement, both the solid performance quarter and then raising the target is attributable to the electronic security piece being divested? And how much is it attributable to increased scale, operational improvements mix? And how would you bucket those two pieces? Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. First and foremost, when you look at the service gross margin improvement, ES in or ES out; if you're looking at it with everything in, we have improved our service gross margins across every region sequentially from 2013 forward. I mean there might be a little bit of a blip, but overall, every region's shown improvement in our service gross margins. And again, that's the combination of the mix of services that we're going after, and that's also the productivity side and really scaling our overall organization. So we see that benefit as we move forward. Whenever you pull the ES component out, you have a higher component of installation revenue in there from a service standpoint. So you see that our overall service margin profile increases after we've divested that. But again, that was just the weighting of installation services that they had in there, which come at a little bit of a lower margin.

Joe K. Radigan - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Okay. That's helpful. And then with the Inspur JV, have you seen any signs, either preliminary conversations or any indications that you'll be back in the game from the hardware side? What gives you confidence that this is – this solution, you'll now be considered local enough? And then have you seen or is there any risk on the service side of that by local initiative, or the fact that you have a service organization in country; you think that alleviates that risk? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Joe, this is Andy. Great questions. Let me just give you my sense, and I had a lot of conversations with folks after the press release went out. The move towards the joint venture with Inspur for us clearly is an offensive move into the Chinese market. By going into the minority banks who would love to buy Diebold's technology – and I've heard that from just about all the large banks in China – they would love to buy our product - will then be able again to buy Diebold's technology. We will be able to combine Diebold's technology with the noncash technology that Inspur has. And they don't report these numbers publicly, but I can tell you there are really sold double-digit growth rates behind their business. They run the largest cloud business in China. So we're looking at offering cloud solutions around the financial services space through the joint venture for the large banks in China. And on top of it all, we will have the exclusive distribution rights of all the product, all the IT, all the innovation that we do in China for China for the global market. And as you very well know, there's many emerging markets that are akin to…

Joe K. Radigan - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Management

Great. Thanks, Andy. Thanks, Chris. Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Matt Summerville with Alembic Global Advisors. Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sorry, Matt.

Matt J. Summerville - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Management

Good morning. A couple questions. First, constant currency expectations for the ATM business up 2% to 4%. Can you talk more specifically regionally how that stacks up around the 2% to 4%? And if you can delineate a little more on product versus services, that would be helpful as well. Again, around that 2% to 4%. Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Let me give you a little color, Matt, on where I see the regions going, and Chris will chime in with the numbers. Biggest growth area, first and foremost, EMEA, where our product and our services are extremely well received; especially, the MEA part, very encouraging. And all the investments that we've made in 2015 in building out our sales and service infrastructure are paying off. And we can see it in our pipeline; we can see it in our activity. Our technology, our next gen technology, very well received. So very strong in EMEA. And the second biggest driver is going to be North America. But on both sides of the pond, the trend towards branch transformation, towards savings costs to higher automation is extremely prevalent, and we see that in just about every conversation that we have. Third, I would say Latin America; Spanish-speaking side of Latin America has been red hot all through 2015. We expect that to continue in 2016. We talked about Brazil. We are very conservative in our Brazilian outlook, but we do see upsides in the private banking sector in Brazil. The drag is going to be Asia, as Chris outlined earlier.

Matt J. Summerville - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Management

Great. And then just one follow-up. You mentioned – or I think Chris did – in your Slide 25, the $0.40 of, I'll call it core improvement. What are the major buckets driving that $0.25 to $0.40? And then what defines the high end versus the low end of that range, if you will? Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: I would say the major buckets, if you just think about it across, from a geographic standpoint, number one, continued underlying improvement in North America. As we've highlighted, very large national account bank backlog coming into the year, nice growth there and so delivering on that. That's one. Number two, getting the full-year benefit of having the multi-vendor service revenue streams in place as that was ramping up last year. And then, number three, looking at the drag, for lack of a better term, that we had from Brazil in 2014. Obviously, not looking at that same level of repeat year on year. And so again, we also see a little bit more tepid growth that we've outlined right now in Europe, but again still looking to expand in that overall market from a profitability year over year. And again, some of that's just the mix of the deals that we have coming through. And then Asia, when we look at it being a little bit of the drag that we've talked about year on year, with that really being more pronounced in Q1, Q2, where we'll see that tough year-over-year comp.

Matt J. Summerville - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Management

Great. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Joan Tong of Sidoti & Company. Joan K. Tong - Sidoti & Co. LLC: Good morning. A couple of questions. It looks like you guys signed another $50 million in multi-vendor managed service business during the quarter. Andy, can you just give us, like a sense of the pipeline, how you're looking at that going into 2016? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Multi-vendor and managed services pipeline, extremely strong, both in North America as well as in EMEA. Actually, in EMEA, we see more and more exploratory conversations around full outsourcing. As you know that some of the banks are struggling with their cost positions. So we see all the investment that we've made in 2015 to pay off in 2016. We expect to continue growth in that area, and we'll continue to take share in the multi-vendor services space. The thing that was really key for us was that we were able to ramp – I mean we ramped nearly 8,000 units since August without a hiccup, and we got unanimous feedback from all the large accounts that these non-Diebold units never ran better than since we've got them under our service management. And that is a great endorsement, and now it's a scale game that will help us drive the business from a volume point of view as well as from a profitability point of view. Joan K. Tong - Sidoti & Co. LLC: Very good. And then I think, Andy, you mentioned that there was a software transaction with a regional bank in North America during the quarter. Can you just give it a sense of like how's the regional bank activities in North America? It seems like one of your largest competitor's talking about like there's really…

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Management

Hey. Good morning. Chris, I just want to get your thoughts on the confidence in free cash flow for 2016, why you believe the trends can turn around and how quickly you believe that those trends will show up. Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Well, first – and again, not to make a flippant comment on this, but we're not looking to roll out another ERP in the fourth quarter of 2016. So from that perspective, it did create some challenges. Not going to go backwards on that. And again, we've addressed it as we move forward. If you look at our historical performance, if you look at our collection activity, we don't have major write-offs. We don't have major negative activity, and we follow a pretty typical pattern. We're looking for that pattern to reoccur next year. And again on the inventory side, we took the hit once. We'll continue to get better year on year and drive that back down to our typical turn level. And so again, some of those are – I look at them as one-off in nature. If you look at our historical performance and the activities that we're going to be driving, we're going to get that back on track and perform at our historical levels. So very confident that we're going to address that and move forward.

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Management

And Chris, as you look at the Wincor financing, let's say by the time you have to get to the high-yield market something unexpected happens, you can't get all the $500 million. Are there contingency plans that you could you draw upon so that the acquisition could close and you can finance it? Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Correct. Yeah. We have the bridge option with the banks for the $500 million if the high-yield market is unaccessible. And again, that's where we'd be capped at the higher rate that I talked about earlier.

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Management

And then, Andy, just a last question. As I listen to your comments and your comments on where you think the market is growing, it seems like it is in EMEA; it is in North America rather than some of the emerging markets. Now how do you see yourself positioned in those markets today and maybe after you close the Wincor acquisition in terms of benefiting from some of these trends that are happening in the marketplace? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, Kartik, I feel really good about where we are. We got two great teams, both in North America as well as in EMEA. Your team has done a spectacular job over the last 24 months, and they are extremely excited about 2016. Having said that, once we combine with Nixdorf, we then have an even broader springboard to jump from, and we have an even better opportunity to take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves in the EMEA market. In our North American business, as I said earlier, extremely strong, good pipeline, good conversations. The branch transformation automation trend on both sides of the Atlantic being the major driver behind it.

Kartik Mehta - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Management

Thank you. Appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Saliq Khan with Imperial Capital.

Saliq Jamil Khan - Imperial Capital LLC

Management

Thank you. Hey, Andy. Hey, Chris. Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Good morning. Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning.

Saliq Jamil Khan - Imperial Capital LLC

Management

Hey, guys. Couple questions for you. For the first time, your term was at the National Retail Federation conference here in New York. And you showcased a new mobile-enabled self-checkout concept for the retail market. Now Andy, I believe this is consistent with your view of trying to become a much bigger player within the software and services side of the business. Could you talk about, how does this impact your overall total market availability and the financial projections for the second half of 2016 and as you guys are leading into 2017? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, Saliq, thanks for the question. Okay. When you look at the software side of the house, it's all around omnichannel. It's all around software-enabled transactions. And we're putting a lot of R&D and a lot of innovation into that space. And the interesting piece is that you cannot only use it for the financial services side of the house; you can also use it on the retail side because, needless to say, omnichannel hits on both sides of the equation where the consumers do their transactions. I wouldn't go as far as saying this increases our TAM at this point in time because we're still very early in the process. But it gives us an opportunity to drive omnichannel pilot and use cases in environment that are not quite as heavily regulated as the banking environment, which will actually help us to get real-life feedback and input which will help us to expedite innovation cycles. And that's the piece that we're really after and that we're most excited about it. And there's opportunity on the software space, especially also if you take a look at all the opportunities that you have on the marketing aspect around our multi-vendor software.

Saliq Jamil Khan - Imperial Capital LLC

Management

Got it. The other question I have for you is that during the quarter, you guys had noted that you won a large contract for about 1,500 Diebold ATMs, the installation of it. One of the things that we have seen JPMorgan do and start doing, at least here in New York City, is they're using a Asian ATM provider. What do you think they could be thinking? And how do you go about winning contracts away from the competitors who may be providing better economics? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I'm sorry. I didn't get the question. Say again.

Saliq Jamil Khan - Imperial Capital LLC

Management

Sure. The 1,500 Diebold ATMs installation that you guys recently announced. One of the things that we have seen JPMorgan at least do here in New York City is upgrade the current ATMs. However, they're going with a Asian ATM provider. What do you think they could be thinking? And how do you guys go about winning contracts away from the competitors who may be providing better economics? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Oh, yes. It's very simple. What we did at Money20/20, the work we did with Citi, that's the key to this. It's all around innovation. We were the first vendor to introduce biometrics, iris scans into the equation. We're working with every ones of the top-five banks in this country around innovative solutions, and we're getting a lot of interest from all of the top banks on partnering with Diebold in order to roll out new technologies. The clear differentiator, it's innovation, part one; quality of service, part two; and up-time availability as part three. And that's a very powerful three-legged stool that we have here, and it resonates extremely well with the customers. And you can see that. You can see it in our backlog. Most of our wins in the second half 2015 were in the national account space in North America, and we actually expect that to continue into 2016. The top banks are spending serious dollars to innovate their go-to market, to innovate the way they connect with the customers to drive software-enabled solutions, and we're definitely participating in that investment.

Saliq Jamil Khan - Imperial Capital LLC

Management

Got it. And the last question – and guys – and I'll hop back in the queue. On the product gross margin side for the year, it was down a little bit, and we attribute that partially to the geographic mix. Are you seeing any mid- to long-term pricing pressure which could impact your current strategy or the way that you innovate? Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Now, look, the hardware side of the business does what all hardware does in the IT space. It continues to be under pressure. And you see roughly a – depending on where you are in the configurations, which country, you're looking at a 3% to 5% pricing pressure every year. It's our job to make up for that through design to cost measures. Our next gen technology platform gives us a big opportunity to fight that, but it is a continuous race. And if you take a look at the chart that was in my opening remarks, you can see that we've forecasted product margins to be around flattish which says we are very confident that we can keep up with this commoditization rate and price pressure. But by the same token, we want to be cautious on our outlook not to get ahead of our skis because one year, we have technology advantage. And you got to have it every year to make sure you get a consistent thing going here.

Saliq Jamil Khan - Imperial Capital LLC

Management

Great. Thank you, guys. Andreas Walter Mattes - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you. Christopher A. Chapman - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Thank you.

Stephen A. Virostek - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Okay. That looks like it's the last question in the queue. I want to thank everyone for joining us today on our fourth quarter earnings call. If you have questions, please call the Investor Relations number or send us an email. Thanks very much.