Longgen Zhang
Analyst · Vertical Group
To answer your question, yes, this, we consent. Okay. I think, in, if you speak for the poly price, you have to consider two effects. Wires in China, because always, China, the production capacity will be increased dramatically. Look, new horizon, right. Three years ago, they're going to say, they're going to invest 80,000 tons capacity. Okay. We are already three years. How much is the manufacturing? Last year, maybe 5000 tons, maximum, the lower quality. But this year, they say, they go into around full capacity, 15,000 tons. So what I’m saying, starting from beginning to enter the new – the polysilicon investors like new horizon, it takes a long time. It's not easy, just like the middle, we will sell in a module, you can, to form the capacity, immediately like three months or six months, you can build up 1 gigawatts capacity immediately from wafer to module. But for polysilicon, it’s difficult. Okay. First of all. Secondly is, we have to differentiate ourselves from other people. One is, right now, 70% of our capacity right now is produced mono polysilicon. That’s the future of the module market. Last year, I think LONGi and other, I think of the mono module only accounted for maybe 27%. This year, we’re increased to maybe more than 50%. So if you look at, in China, the manufacturer only TBEA, [indiscernible] those two, plus maybe I think, Yichang also produced part of them, can produce the mono polysilicon. That’s the first advantage. Second advantage is, I'm just mentioning that. Our gross margin last year was around 45%. So we compare our industry average, what I say 80% of those produced or even imported, their gross margin may be around 20% to 25%. So yes, we still have the cushion there. Maybe, the newcomer will continue lower cost, yes, the same gross margin as us. So what I think, yes, we maybe cannot continue to keep such a high gross margin, 45%, but we still think this year, we can achieve 35% to 40% gross margin.