Longgen Zhang
Analyst · Roth Capital Partners. Please go ahead
Okay. First of all, I'm not comment other people, you see the other player. But we have to know other player, you see what they are doing? Basically, if you look today, most lower cost, I think, plant is in Xinjiang. So if you look, I think, GCL right, GCL I think they declared 40,000 tons in Xinjiang. As we know, they may be partially or starting production by the end of this year as we know. Maybe around 10,000 production we're starting end of this year. So not adding the capacity of this year, but maybe you are adding capacity in 2019. Then if you look, I think, TBEA, I think they have declared I think, 36,000 tons and majority, I think they were starting production. We already know projection is early 2020. They maybe a little early, come up end of next year. Then Tongwei, as you know there are 2 plants, I think each is 25,000 tons, one is in Lufeng, one in Mongolia. I think they already their planning is end of this year. But as we know that, there may be delayed into I think early next year. So basically this year is not too much adding but next year, yes. I think we are adding maybe around 10,000 tons. But as I mentioned there, you have to look today, the lower cost in China, if you look at today based on right now, renminbi exchange rate is RMB 6.35 per dollar. Basically, below $11.5 per kg, today in China, is not too much severe, less than 1 is on 10. Even you add by 2020, with calculation, let's say, in China if lower $11.50, maybe below 270,000 tons. But the consumption last year, it's already 460,000 tons. Just you like mentioned there, OCI Wacker, they import -- their cost is higher basically, I'm not commenting there. So if you look at the history, the ASP below $13, $14 bounce back. That's major reason because it feeds the cost, average cost, the important part is the cost. So that's why bounce back again. Yes, maybe by 2020, the hurdle will go down, if not $13, $14, maybe go down to $11.50 to $12.00 and then bounce back. So that's why the whole philosophy and a strategy why we are going to expansion that 4A because we want to start try production by October next year, because we can see if we are starting, full capacity running maybe possible, the Q4, than whole running on 2020. And by 2020, we are the lead player, the low-cost, high-quality to meet the downstream decline, that's the whole philosophy.