Earnings Labs

Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG)

Q3 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 1, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Encore Capital Group Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Adam Sragovicz. Mr. Sragovicz, you may begin.

Adam Sragovicz

Analyst

Thank you, Michelle. Good afternoon and welcome to Encore Capital Group's third quarter 2012 earnings call. With me on the call today are Brandon Black, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Paul Grinberg, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Brandon and Paul will make prepared remarks, and then we will be happy to take your questions. Before we begin, we have a few housekeeping items. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons made on this conference call will be between the third quarter of 2012 and the third quarter of 2011. Throughout the call, we will use forward-looking statements, including predictions, expectations, estimates or other information that might be considered forward-looking. While these forward-looking statements represent our current judgment, these statements are also subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from statements being made today. As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. We will also use rounding and abbreviations in our conference call for the sake of brevity. For more detailed numbers and explanations, please refer to our Form 10-Q that was filed today with the SEC. We will also be referencing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial results. We believe certain non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information about our business. However, the presentation of this additional information should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than, our results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Management utilizes adjusted EBITDA, which is similar to a financial measure contained in covenants used in our credit agreement in the evaluation of our operations and believes this measure is a useful indicator of our ability to generate cash collections in excess of operating expenses through the liquidation of our receivable portfolios. We included information concerning adjusted operating expenses, excluding stock-based compensation expense, in order to facilitate a comparison of approximate cash costs to cash collections for the debt purchasing business in the periods presented. Once again, please be sure to see our Forms 10-K, 10-Q and other SEC filings, including a press release issued as an exhibit to our current report on Form 8-K filed today, which includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures for a more complete discussion of these factors and other risks. As a reminder, this conference call will also be made available for replay on the Investors section of our website, and we also plan to post the prepared remarks following the conclusion of this call. With that, let me turn the call over to Brandon Black, our President and Chief Executive Officer.

J. Black

Analyst

Thank you, Adam, and good afternoon. I appreciate you joining us for a discussion of Encore's third quarter results. For the quarter, we delivered strong financial results while making investments that will provide long-term strategic advantages and further strengthen our industry-leading debt purchasing and recovery platform. Our deliberate and disciplined approach to portfolio underwriting and management again drove record earnings, record collections and record operating cash flow. When we look out at the current landscape, we see a number of trends that should increase Encore's advantage as a mature, ethical and efficient industry leader. Specifically, the migration to an industry regulated by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will put pressure on small and mid-tier firms that are unlikely to be able to make the investments in compliance, audit and information technology that will be necessary to flourish in the new environment. In addition, as supply becomes somewhat constrained, competition will increase, and we believe that those companies without an operating or cost advantage will only be left with the option of paying up to purchase portfolios and hoping they can generate a return. Ultimately, we believe they will not be able to maintain a reasonable level of profitability, and this will lead to industry consolidation. We built Encore for the exact business and regulatory environment we're now entering, one where success will be reserved for those companies with access to low-cost capital, a differentiated operating model, an operating cost advantage and a real commitment to respecting consumers. Cash collections for the quarter were $246 million, which was a 30% increase and the highest in the company's history. These record cash collections reflect the deep insights we've gained into consumer behavior over the past decade and our continued focus only on accounts of those consumers who are reasonably likely to repay…

Paul Grinberg

Analyst

Thank you, Brandon. As Brandon discussed, we had a very strong third quarter. Collections reached an all-time high, and continued investments in our operating platform give us confidence in our ability to expand upon the operating leverage created over the past few years. We generated record earnings from continuing operations of $0.82 per fully diluted share during the quarter, an increase of 37% over the third quarter of 2011. Adjusted EBITDA, which represents the cash we generate that is available for future purchases, capital expenditures, debt service and taxes, was $151 million in the third quarter, an increase of 41%. The strong cash flow allowed us to fund all of our portfolio acquisitions during the quarter and reduce our net debt by over $90 million from the end of the second quarter. We had mentioned that the acquisition of Propel and the large portfolio purchase in the second quarter had resulted in higher-than-normal debt levels. While we are very comfortable operating at an even higher levels -- at even higher levels of leverage as expected, our leverage ratio improved substantially this quarter to 1.15x, down from 1.43x. At the end of the quarter, we had over $141 million of available operating -- available borrowing capacity. Our overall cost-to-collect decreased 330 basis points to 40.5%, down significantly from 43.8% in 2011. We achieved these results even as we made investments to expand our internal legal channel and ramp up our new operations center in Costa Rica. While cost-to-collect is an important metric, there are other related drivers of our success. One example is generating the greatest net return per dollar invested. We accomplish that by generating more gross dollars collected per investment dollar at what we believe to be the lowest cost per dollar collected in the industry. Over time, we…

J. Black

Analyst

This is an important time in the history of Encore and our industry. We're in a period of significant change for our industry as a whole, and we expect the collection landscape to change dramatically over the next few years. For too long, firms have been started in this industry with a handful of staff, an Excel spreadsheet and some legacy relationships. That will not be the case going forward. We expect to see a significant number of existing firms go away and the required level of investment for new entrants to increase meaningfully. No longer will large financial institutions place or sell their consumers' accounts to a hedge fund or an operator without the ability to withstand heightened regulatory scrutiny. Encore is positioned extremely well for this period of change and the new landscape that will follow, and we look forward to working with the new regulators and continuing to treat consumers with the respect and fairness they deserve. We'll go to the Q&A session right now, operator, and we'll take people's questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Dave Scharf with JMP Securities.

David Scharf

Analyst

I may have missed this. First, as far as kind of Q4 outlook, I believe last quarter or on your Investor Day, you had mentioned you were looking for $130 million to $140 million of purchases in the second half, in light of which you saw in the third quarter as well as your commentary on the environment. Is that still a good number to think about?

J. Black

Analyst

Yes. It's still our target. There's a lot of time left in the quarter. We're more than halfway past that goal. And so we think fourth quarter supply will be significantly greater than it was in the third quarter. And so we believe that that's still the number to use.

David Scharf

Analyst

Got it. And actually, your comment there is a good segue to my next question about supply. You had just mentioned you think supply will pick up quite a bit the fourth quarter very often. There are some year-end kind of housecleaning by the banks anyway. Was there anything in the third quarter, just based on your commentary of competitiveness -- and it's the first time I've heard that phrase "irrational pricing" used in quite some time. Was there anything that you thought was just a temporary lull in supply in the last few months? Or do you think we're entering a period of 6 to 9 months where it's going to be more challenging to maintain kind of the recent pattern of purchases excluding the AEF deal?

J. Black

Analyst

Well, the summer is always the lower volume period. So we expect the summer to be a low volume. There was one seller who was a big seller in the second quarter that was not a seller in the third quarter that contributed to it. So we expect -- actually, we expect volumes to recover. And it's not to be a prolonged period of time. Your comments, which may not have been heard around, the irrational pricing is mostly in the fresh paper. We have some competitors who focus their business exclusively in that area, and that happened to be a place with very low supply. And if that's what the business is built off of, your only choice is to pay what it takes to win. We have the luxury of buying across all vintages of time, different asset classes in the resale market direct from issuers. And so those companies that can go in and out of different parts of the marketplace, we think, will do well. Those with the specific business model will likely struggle as supply is constrained especially in the fresher paper.

David Scharf

Analyst

Got it. And switching to your channel mix and on collections, legal is obviously the highest cost-to-collect dollar. And it looked like the mix of collections coming out of legal was down, I think, to 45% or so, well below last year as well as the first half of the year. Is that -- the difference between 45% or 50% of your collections coming out of legal actually has a pretty material impact on the cost, the blended cost-to-collect. Are you finding that your analytics is such that you're not having to sue as bigger proportion of the accounts you're going after? I'm just trying to get a sense for whether kind of 50% or 45% is the right way to think about the legal mix going forward for at least the next 12 months.

J. Black

Analyst

So I think what you'll see is that the third quarter was impacted mostly by the large purchasing in the first half of the year, where most of the collections, about all of the collections in the first 6 to 12 months, are exclusively from our call centers as we work with consumers to try to get them to repay their obligations through those means first. So they have almost no contribution from the legal channel on the large volume of purchasing. So I think that's what you're seeing here, more than intentional shift towards or away from any one particular channel.

David Scharf

Analyst

Got it. So it was just the mix impacted by those in-house accounts from AEF. And lastly, Brandon, I noticed that the ERC sequentially declined. I think it's the first time in about 3 years we saw that. My guess is there was a big ramp from the Q2 purchases. And is the AEF portfolio have an unusually large amount of liquidating accounts already? I mean, I'm just trying to get a sense if kind of Q3 collection activity was unusually impacted to the upside just based on how many accounts were already liquidating.

J. Black

Analyst

Well, I think ERC is a function of -- or the drop quarter-to-quarter is more a function effect of the very large purchasing over the prior 3 quarters followed by just the lower purchasing in the quarter. So you had -- you didn't replenish the supply at the same rate. So I don't think there's much trend in there. From a collection perspective, we did acquire some accounts that were in repayment. And so that's certainly helpful for the quarterly results.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from Mark Hughes with SunTrust.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

The, let's see, stock comp expense. Is it presented differently this quarter? Or did I miss it?

J. Black

Analyst

It is presented differently this quarter. It's not carved out as a separate line item. You can get it from the cash flow statement.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

Okay. The deferred legal expense, it seems like you're deferring less these days. Is that something you've explained before? What's the reason for that?

J. Black

Analyst

A portion of what we're deferring is all based upon the specific accounts that would litigate on -- in any given quarter and our estimated recovery on those particular court cost expenditures. So it's all based upon mix of suits in one quarter compared to the other. So it can fluctuate from period to period it, and it's largely timing and mix of accounts.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

Right. Which mix usually would drive the deferred portion to be less with circumstances?

J. Black

Analyst

Just ultimate anticipated recovery on those accounts. So there are different qualities of accounts in terms of what we would ultimately -- if you have a pool of 100 accounts which are litigated on and you apply certain court costs to those, different credit quality and other factors will determine how much of those costs will be recovered. So that's how we look at it. And that determines our ultimate recovery rate in the mix placed in any channel -- in any quarter.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

Right. The -- it looks like the commissions that you paid for the collection agencies, outsourced collections -- it looks like it's a fairly low commission rate. Am I reading that properly? And why would that be?

J. Black

Analyst

It's almost my answer to the last question. We -- when we acquired the accounts from the large seller in the prior period, many of the paying accounts have a lower contingency fee. So it's just a mix shift.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

Yes, okay. Well, it looks like the monthly IRR for the 2012 paper, you're keeping that at a pretty conservative level. I know you've got lower collection assumption, but it seems as if the IRR is even more conservative than that when I look at the 3Q. Anything to that? Am I reading that properly?

J. Black

Analyst

Yes, you are reading that the IRR is lower. And we do try to set them very conservatively early on and then increase them over time. So it's just a product of the philosophy we have around setting initial IRRs.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

Yes. Is there anything more you can say on the -- which is what happened in 3Q in terms of supply and competitions? Having heard it now for the third time among the public companies, it seems unusual. Why now? We've been at this for this expansion, the improved recoveries. This has been going on for some time. Why Q3?

J. Black

Analyst

I think it's a function of a couple of things. One is loss rates have been coming down at the banks in general. So you've got back to the fresh portfolio, which is a dilemma because that's where you focus your time within the lower supply there. The second is, the banks are watching what's happening in the regulatory environment, making decisions about what -- or where they think pressure may or may not come from and they want to get a good read on what that's going to look like. And I think that's starting to become more clear. And the third piece is whether they need to sell or not. And they always balance their decisions of whether to sell or not based on the returns they have in any period of time. So any combination of heightened regulatory scrutiny, which is now getting clear and we think will relieve supply getting towards the end of the year, we'll eliminate much of the supply challenge. And I think what we just saw was in those people who kind of had to buy, they had to pay for the small amount that was out there. And we planned for that. We've thought about that as a possibility and didn't have to participate.

Mark Hughes

Analyst

So once the CFPB approved supplier, then that will make the sellers more likely to sell more paper.

J. Black

Analyst

I think once they spend their time setting the agenda and setting the expectations, that will give a lot of comfort to the sellers, both where they place their accounts or where they sell their accounts. But it will impact both decisions. So if your bank is sort of sitting around, trying to understand what's happening, we think that's becoming much clearer.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Grondahl from Piper Jaffray.

Michael Grondahl

Analyst

Two questions. India was 53% of collections. Where do you think that can be in 1 year or 2? And then maybe, Paul, could you talk a little bit about investments? Is that sort of the normal course of business or were you signaling that that's going to be something kind of above normal course?

Paul Grinberg

Analyst

On the India question, we continue to think both we'll have growth in India and in Costa Rica as a percentage of total collections. It will slowly go up over time as the employees there mature. If you think about Costa Rica, we started operations in February. The weighted average tenure of our team there is probably 3 or 4 months. And in India, we've been hiring significant numbers of people over the past few years that are continuing on there on a ramp. So you will see continued growth. We don't have a target. We're adding account managers here in the U.S.. We're adding them internationally. There's a greater percentage international, but I don't think we'll give you a specific number to shoot other than we would expect it to go up. And regarding the investments, we'll definitely be making incremental investments in a number of different areas. But I think as you think about those, I would take those into context with Brandon's comment around our goal of achieving 15% to 20% long-term earnings growth. So that's our goal and focus, and we believe we can do that even when we're making investments in new things.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Hogan with William Blair.

Brian Hogan

Analyst · William Blair.

A question on the use of third-party collectors. Obviously, the AEF portfolio used a lot of those. Are you -- do you have plans to shift that over to your own call centers or you just stick with those third-party collectors?

J. Black

Analyst · William Blair.

We're in the middle of shifting all of that work internally. So that's a temporary short-term blip. The vast majority has already worked through our call centers.

Brian Hogan

Analyst · William Blair.

All right. And then I guess what are your views on the CFPB? Well, I guess maybe with your dialogue with them, what are their views on the use of third-party collectors? Do they prefer to stay in-house? Or just kind of to get a grasp of that.

J. Black

Analyst · William Blair.

Most of the feedback we have as it relates to the CFPB's view about third parties come through the issuers who have gone through a cycle. We've yet to go through a cycle. But understandably, they want anyone who is working with consumers to have the right checks and balances in place, the right investment, audit and compliance. And they are telling the issuers they need to care about who they place accounts with, who they sell them to and I'm sure they'll tell us of we're the third party we need to care about, who they -- who we place accounts with and then we work with. And that's why we've been building over the past few years the internal legal capabilities, which should be done by our own employees and why we have very little reliance on third parties in the collection front. Again, we saw this pattern emerging and believed making that investment sooner was the right decision to make.

Brian Hogan

Analyst · William Blair.

And then industry consolidation. I mean, you acquired the AEF portfolio earlier, and I've heard some others have traded. Have you seen an increased activity? Or is this still kind of a wait-and-see and wait and see how the CFPB regulatory environment kind of shakes out?

J. Black

Analyst · William Blair.

Well, this year has definitely been a year of heightened activity. We've seen it on a lot of different levels. We don't -- we think it's a combination both of the regulatory expectations that all companies are going to have on their business, as well as the profitability element. I mean, we saw a lot of people who have a high cost of capital, have a high operating cost, who are unable to collect as much as we can and independent of the regulatory environment are likely to struggle. When you combine the 2 together, we just don't see a way for most of the companies in the space to remain a viable entity going forward.

Brian Hogan

Analyst · William Blair.

And then on pricing. How much is up? I know it's probably higher on fresher paper, but would you say is it above the prior peak levels of 2007?

J. Black

Analyst · William Blair.

We often don't know the clearing price of what somebody paid for something. We just know we lose. And so it's hard to know where exactly the pricing is, but we know where we've bid to know that if it was a 1 basis point above us, we would know it's above meaningful. And so it's hard to give an exact number, but it's -- if it was up only 5-or-so percent, we wouldn't have called it out. So it's up a decent amount.

Brian Hogan

Analyst · William Blair.

And you're not changing your underwriting strategies so you've still remained disciplined and haven't lowered your bar? Is that fair?

J. Black

Analyst · William Blair.

That's been a hallmark of how we run the company. It's being intelligent about how we buy portfolio and not making the mistakes that others have made. And we're going to continue to be disciplined.

Brian Hogan

Analyst · William Blair.

And the Propel, you're in Texas. I think there was a law that was going through New York and didn't make it. What is -- are there any progress in the other states?

J. Black

Analyst · William Blair.

Well, you can imagine not much is happening in any government right now with the election next week. So we've pushed off all of our activity until 2013 as it relates to new regulatory pushes. There's nothing going on right now than what we're doing behind the scenes. So we expect to be very active next year on a variety of fronts as it relates to the expansion of Propel, but right now is not a time to try it march through.

Brian Hogan

Analyst · William Blair.

And then your interest in other asset classes. I know you continue to look at other things and -- but what particular areas are you focused on?

J. Black

Analyst · William Blair.

Well, I guess what we would say there are very few areas we're not focused on in terms of understanding the profitability dynamics. The only asset class that we've consciously ruled out is the collection of medical receivables, which we bought 5 or 6 years ago, and we're unsuccessful finding a model that works. But anything other than that is something that we actively test and look at and value. And we're always buying different pools to look at profitability and that's what led to the telecommunications investment we're making today. And you should continue to see us try to do that.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the lines of Hugh Miller with Sidoti & Company.

Hugh Miller

Analyst · Sidoti & Company.

One quick housekeeping question. In the other income line item, there was roughly about $1 million benefit in the quarter. And we're just wondering if there's anything unusual there, if it was possibly tied to Propel and we should be -- how should we be thinking about that going forward?

J. Black

Analyst · Sidoti & Company.

That largely does relate to Propel, Hugh. So it relates to some of the fee income that Propel generates. So it is something that you would -- you should expect to see continuing going forward or the bulk of it that you should expect to see going forward.

Hugh Miller

Analyst · Sidoti & Company.

Okay. Okay, good to know it there. And given some of the commentary you've made on the purchasing market and your willingness to kind of buy telecom paper in the quarter, is that just a very different dynamic in that market relative to credit card paper just because of a lack of competitors that are buying that paper?

Paul Grinberg

Analyst · Sidoti & Company.

We certainly believe there's a lot less competition in the telecommunications space given the balance sizes and the inability, we think, for most people to be able to make phone calls as part of the collection effort. That being said, the investment this quarter was about the run rate for the last couple of quarters. So there wasn't a shift in strategy. There just was a lower amount of buying in the credit card space and a fairly consistent purchases of the telecommunications space.

Hugh Miller

Analyst · Sidoti & Company.

Okay. And is -- the purchases that you've already kind of committed to in the fourth quarter, is there any differential in the mix there relative to the third quarter?

Paul Grinberg

Analyst · Sidoti & Company.

Hugh, we probably won't comment on the mix as it stands right now.

Hugh Miller

Analyst · Sidoti & Company.

Okay, okay. And then with the Propel business, you guys have talked about how the dynamics there are very active in deployment of capital in the first half of the year as those lists come out. As we think about kind of the fourth quarter and the lien portfolio, should we be actually expecting the lien portfolio to contract and interest income from that business to contract in 4Q? Or is it still a situation where you'll deploy capital and generate collections but just at a slower pace?

Paul Grinberg

Analyst · Sidoti & Company.

It's the latter. We'll continue to deploy capital. I wouldn't expect a meaningful change in the book one way or the other in the fourth quarter.

Hugh Miller

Analyst · Sidoti & Company.

Great, okay. And you commented about making investments, doing some audits of third parties. Obviously, that's going to become more meaningful to know who you're doing business with. But as you look at it, are there any things in particular that you guys see as potential risks arising from those audits or things that you're most focused on to try and ensure that you won't run into issue with the CFPB?

Paul Grinberg

Analyst · Sidoti & Company.

We've been actually doing audits of our law firms for many years now. So it's not something that -- and our agency. It's not something new. I think it's much more comprehensive than it has been in the past. And I think that's out of an abundance of caution so we don't get surprised. So that's really what we're talking about here. It's an expansion of a program that already exist, but it will mean more resources. It will mean more visits, and we'll pay more attention on what's going on kind of the day-to-day activity level than we would have been previously.

Operator

Operator

Mr. Black, I am showing no further questions in the queue. You may proceed with any further remarks.

J. Black

Analyst

Thank you, everybody, for joining us today. And once again, I apologize for the technical glitch that happened in the middle of the call. We look forward to speaking with you a couple months from now. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you all may disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.