William James Scilacci
Analyst · Wolfe Research
Thanks, Ted, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start on Page 2 of the presentation. As Ted said, EIX's first quarter core earnings were $0.77 per share, $0.23 ahead of last year. SCE results drove $0.22 of the $0.23 variance. There are a number of components at SCE that will make quarterly comparisons complicated, including the delay in the 2012 General Rate Case decision, SONGS refueling and inspection and repair costs and the completion of the SmartConnect project and elimination of related project costs. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, higher 2013 revenue attributed to a net $0.13 per share to the earnings increase. The biggest difference was driven by the delay in the GRC decision. During 2012, we recorded revenue based on 2011 authorized levels, pending a final decision. Based on the GRC decision, the estimated revenue attributed -- attributable to the first quarter of 2012 was $0.15 per share. During 2012, we also had authorized revenue for the planned refueling outages at SONGS. Because there are no refueling outages in 2013, there was a $0.07 negative variance. We also had an increase in 2013 revenue mainly due to 2 items: a $0.09 per share in CPUC and FERC revenues, partially offset by a $0.04 negative variance from the SmartConnect project. We collect revenue associated with the implementation of SmartConnect this year -- last year and it did not reoccur this year. As everyone is aware, SCE's authorized return on common equity is set at 11 -- excuse me, 10.45% for 2013 compared to 11.5% last year. However, the earnings reduction associated with the lower ROE was offset by the incremental increase in average CPUC and FERC rate base during the first quarter of 2013. Turning to the cost side. There was a net $0.09 per share positive variance in O&M, which was made up of 4 primary elements: first, SONGS inspection and repair costs were $0.04 in the first quarter of last year. In the first quarter of 2013, those costs were less, resulting in a $0.02 per share positive variance. As I mentioned above, the absence of SONGS refueling cost -- outage cost this year provided a positive variance of $0.06 per share. Severance costs in the first quarter of 2013 were $0.03 per share higher, thus, provided a negative variance. Lastly, the SmartConnect project had O&M costs recorded in the balancing account in the first quarter of 2012 of $0.04, resulting in a positive variance this year. The variance of depreciation and interest expense was a negative $0.05 and $0.03 per share, respectively, largely associated with rate base growth. We also recorded expected tax benefits for repair deductions of $0.05 per share, consistent with our 2013 earnings guidance. Finally, taxes and all other provided a positive $0.03 variance. Moving to the parent company and other costs, which are shown on the left part of the slide. These costs are comparable year-over-year, with a $0.01 difference due to a small contribution from Edison Capital. As we have previously said, we are not making new investments in Edison Capital, and we're slowly liquidating the remaining portfolio. We had 2 non-core items in the first quarter. The first was in the parent company and other category, where we had $0.02 per share benefit from a lower-than-expected level of state income taxes from last year's sale of Edison Capital's lease interest in a power plant. The second relates to EME. With EME now de-consolidated for accounting purposes, any changes in tax or other accounting estimates will flow through the income statement as discontinued operations. We recorded a $0.04 per share benefit from updated estimates from future tax de-consolidation of EME. The first quarter of 2012 loss of $0.26 per share reflect the EME losses that were previously part of the financial results prior to bankruptcy. The same presentation will continue for the balance of 2013, and we expect periodic positive or negative adjustments related to EME to be recorded as non-core items and discontinued operations. On Pages 3 and 4, we have included our capital spending and rate base forecasts through 2014. These are unchanged from our year-end financial reporting. Total capital expenditures in the first quarter were $814 million. Currently, we are finalizing our expected capital spending plans to be included in the Notice of Intent for the 2015 General Rate Case, which we will file in the third quarter. Because of an aging infrastructure and reliability needs, we plan to seek an increase in our proposed distribution capital spending. However, we also foresee lower transmission investment as construction of 2 of our major transmission lines are scheduled to be completed later this year. Our goal is to find the right balance amongst safety, reliability and affordability, such that we can achieve our goals with modest total system average rate increases for our customers. Ted has covered most of the developments related to SONGS, which are summarized on Page 5. The various elements the CPUC proceedings are moving ahead, and SCE submitted its final costs on the steam generator project during the quarter. Page 6 updates the SONGS costs and rate base information along the lines that we introduced last year. We have followed the same approach in the first quarter with one change. Reporting of net market costs for replacement power will now follow the approach requested by the CPUC for periodic filings under the Order Instituting Investigation or OII. This is a different methodology than the one we used last year, which followed the traditional E-R-R-A or ERRA balancing account approach. The largest difference is the inclusion of market power costs during the planned refueling outages and foregone energy sales. I'd now like to turn to a couple of regulatory topics, starting with the FERC return on common equity. Please turn to Page 7 of the deck. Settlement discussions in our 2012 FERC formula rate are ongoing. One of the many important issues is the base return on common equity of 9.93%, which is before incentives. Since the last settlement conference in late February, settlement offers are still being exchanged and are expected to continue into next month. The settlement judge has not yet scheduled the next settlement conference but has indicated it likely would be in late May. While the settlement negotiations are confidential, it is reasonable to assume that the FERC's preferred methodology results in a lower ROE today than when SCE filed its formula rate in June of 2011. If a full or partial settlement cannot be reached, then the rate case would proceed to litigation. SCE and FERC lawyers participated in oral arguments before the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals on the utilities appeal of its 2008 FERC decision on our CWIP return on common equity. The key issue here is FERC's policy to use medium return of the proxy group for utilities filing individually rather than using the midpoint of the proxy group. The decision on the appeal is expected by the fourth quarter. Page 8 shows they'll now approve cost of capital mechanism for CPUC jurisdictional rates through 2015. You can see on the right side of the slide that the period-to-date moving average, which over 12 months, determines whether our change is triggered in the return on common equity, although running it below the starting point is well within the zone that would result in no change and allowed return in 2014. Page 9 shows the reaffirmed core earnings guidance that Ted mentioned. We have updated our GAAP earnings guidance to reflect the first quarter non-core items only. Our 2013 guidance continues to include the same amount of repair deductions, operation and maintenance and other cost benefits and energy efficiency savings we provided during our year-end call in February. I'll close by building on Ted's comments regarding shareholder value proposition. Narrowing the uncertainties around SONGS in 2013 is a key priority for Edison International. We continue to see significant rate base growth potential, reflecting our wires-focused investments program. We will continue to optimize our cost structure, strive for operational excellence and create the foundation for an improved SCE cost structure in our next General Rate Case. Okay. I'd now like to turn over the call for Q&A, operator.