William James Scilacci
Analyst · Wolfe Research
Thanks, Ted, and good afternoon, everyone. My comments will focus on the following topics: Second quarter earnings, SCE's Notice of Intent or NOI filing for the 2015 General Rate Case, updated capital expenditures and rate base forecast for 2013 through 2017, SONGS and earnings guidance. Turning to Page 2 of the presentation. Second quarter 2013 core earnings are $0.79 per share, up $0.23 from last year. SCE contributed $0.25 of their earnings growth. The key drivers are shown on the right side of the slide. As with the first quarter, the largest earnings driver is the delay in the 2012 General Rate Case decision. This timing item affected SCE's quarter-over-quarter comparisons by $0.16 per share. You will recall that during 2012, before a final GRC decision was received, we recorded revenues at 2011 authorized levels. We also benefited $0.08 per share from higher revenues authorized for 2013. As I mentioned last quarter, the earnings benefit of rate base growth was offset by lower CPUC ROE of 10.45% in 2013 versus 11.5% last year. On the cost side, there are a number of items to mention. The first is severance. Severance accounting for employees who worked at SONGS is rather complicated. Here's my plain English explanation. During the second quarter of 2013, we accrued $56 million of severance. Of this amount, $24 million or $0.05 per share was offset by authorized SONGS revenue. For the balance, or $32 million, we established a regulatory asset and we expect that this amount will be offset during the third quarter as we ramp down other expenses at the plant. Because we believe the full amount of the $56 million will be recovered in rates, this cost did not impact earnings. Additionally, for the quarter-over-quarter variance analysis, we see the $0.05 of severance showing up this quarter, and the balance will run through expense next quarter. The severance for employees that indirectly support SONGS is accounted for differently. Severance for the estimated 175 positions was accrued during the second quarter or $0.03 per share and will reduce earnings, but will yield savings once these employees depart later this year. As a reminder, this severance was included as transition cost in our June guidance update. The balance of severance or $0.03 a share relates to the operational excellence initiative Ted discussed, and we'll have similar future benefits through 2014. SONGS inspection and repair costs are $0.04 per share lower in the second quarter. In addition, we did not receive any warranty payments from MHI during the second quarter. One last point on SONGS. We are not showing any variance for removing SONGS rate base from earnings or from AFUDC on CWIP. For the partial month of June, these amounts were relatively small and offset by other items. However, these variances will show up next quarter. The completed SmartConnect project had O&M costs recorded in the balancing account in the second quarter of 2012 of about $0.04, resulting in a positive variance this quarter. Depreciation is $0.03 per share higher from rate base growth. Incremental tax benefits from repair deductions added $0.05 per share. Year-over-year, we continue to expect incremental tax benefits from Transmission & Distribution repair deductions consistent with earnings guidance. Income tax and other items netted to $0.02 per share benefit. Edison International parent and other costs were $0.02 per share higher than last year, as you can see on the left side of the chart. This relates principally to quarter-over-quarter change in our consolidated income taxes. In noncore items, as Ted mentioned, the SONGS impairment charge of $1.12 per share was within the disclosed range. We also recorded a positive $0.04 per share in discontinued items as we continue to refine the estimated income tax impacts of the expected future separation of EME. As Ted mentioned, EME is in discontinued operations and is no longer consolidated as part of our results. Together, the core earnings, non-core charge and discontinued operations tie to the basic and diluted EPS loss of $0.29 per share in the quarter. Page 3 summarizes the year-to-date results and core earnings drivers. I will not go into full reconciliation of year-to-date results because the explanation is very similar to the quarter. Looking ahead to the third quarter, the timing of the 2012 CPUC GRC decision will continue to result in positive variances over the last year and there will be a negative variances from the removal of SONGS from rate base and the elimination of AFUDC earnings from CWIP. Page 4 summarizes many of the key points Ted has already made about the policy direction we're taking in the 2015 General Rate Case. The Notice of Intent will go through a detailed review by the CPUC Division of Rate Payor Advocates. Once the area is satisfied, the filing is complete and deficiencies are cleared, we will finalize a filing and update for any necessary changes. We will file the application in the fourth quarter, commence evidentiary hearings in the spring and target a decision for the fourth quarter of next year. As we have previously mentioned, the workforce reductions and other efficiency improvements will flow back to customers beginning January 1, 2015. Turning to Page 5, we've updated our capital investment forecast to show the profile we anticipate over the next 5 years. The forecast shows the increase in distribution spending in 2015, consistent with our infrastructure reliability focus. The chart shows that we expect to spend between $18 billion to $20 billion from 2013 through 2017. It also reflects the expected moderation of FERC spending, with 2 of our 3 major transmission projects nearing completion. The forecast reflects a modest shift to the right, with 2013 CapEx down about $200 million from our prior forecast. This mainly reflects cost overruns on the 2 transmission projects going into service this year, as well as timing of expenditures -- underruns, sorry. Over the 5-year period, CPUC spending is 78% of the total -- the CPUC spending is 78% of the total, and FERC is 22%. Please note that we also have continued to provide a range case with 12% variability. This is the average variability experienced between forecast and actual capital spending over the last 3 years. Included in FERC capital spending is $360 million estimate for the undergrounding of the portion of the Tehachapi project that Ted discussed. This is the estimate SCE provided to the CPUC and updated Tehachapi testimony earlier this year. SCE assumes that this line is in service in 2016, and we expect the cost estimates and timing will be refined over time. Additional updates on our 3 major transmission projects are in the presentation appendix. On Page 6, we show the detail on the resulting rate base through 2017. The forecast excludes SONGS rate base. Ultimately, Phase II of the OII process will determine what, if any, rate base will be used and useful. We currently estimate about $400 million of SONGS property, plant and equipment, plus construction work in process would continue to support ongoing activities at the site. On August 12, we will make an additional filing to the CPUC and it will contain rate base figures. The capital expenditures provided on Page 5 yield a compound annual growth rate of 7% to 9% for the 2013 through 2017 period. These numbers also reflect bonus depreciation in 2013, which is trued up in the 2015 GRC NOI. Page 7 is an update of our FERC formula rate case proceeding. As many of you are aware, the FERC judge announced a settlement among the parties and that the settlement will be filed on or before August 16. The terms of the settlement are confidential and will not be made public until this is filed with the FERC. We will file an 8-K concurrent with the filing of the settlement so we can discuss the key terms with the market. Please turn to Page 8. We continue to provide updated summaries of key SONGS data and the details supporting our net investment. Note that we have added a new category of SONGS severance cost related to shutdown decision. These are the direct costs that I mentioned earlier, and we expect to recover and not impact earnings. In addition, in the OII proceeding, we have recommended that any excess of SONGS authorized O&M over actual O&M be returned to customers through the credit to our fuel and purchase power balancing account, as Ted mentioned previously. We do not anticipate that O&M spending will decline meaning -- excuse me, we do anticipate that O&M spending will decline meaningfully over time as we transition to decommissioning and downsize staffing. The fuel and purchase power balancing account is running and increasing under collection, primarily from higher-than-forecast natural gas prices and replacement power for SONGS. We are still working on a plan on how to -- we will transition from funding SONGS from base rates to decommissioning. At a minimum, we will need approvals from the CPUC and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to withdraw funds from a decommissioning trust. On Page 9, we've updated one of the slides we used in the June 7 SONGS call to better reflect the items we considered in recording the impairment. At the bottom of the slide, we summarized the accounting treatment, which moves the net investment into a regulatory asset less the pretax impairment charge of $575 million. This charge is based on the required accounting determination. As we have previously said, we may take different positions in the SONGS OII process based on our view that our actions have been prudent and reasonable. Based on our conversation with investors, we have summarized the current status of the various OII phases on Page 10. Note that this time, the judge has not targeted a specific date for a proposed decision for Phase I, but we expect it in the third quarter. This includes the schedule for Phase II published yesterday by the CPUC. The schedule calls for hearings in October and a final decision in February of next year. One of the key points we made in the June 7 SONGS call was that the recovery precedent allowed return of capital in early shutdown scenarios, but mixed results will return on capital. We have tabulated those precedents for reference, Pages 12 and 13, summarized for reference on Page 11. Pages 12 and 13 summarized the key points that Ted made regarding potential recoveries from MHI for direct and consequential damages and from NEIL for replacement power. Almost all of the potential NEIL replacement coverage falls within the 52-week period of maximum coverage. The tail portion after 52 weeks is covered at 20%. Also, a coverage of 10% of costs may be available after permanent shutdown. Page 14 provides a brief update on the decommissioning process that Ted also covered. Given the permanent shutdown of SONGS, we are now developing a detailed site-specific plan and cost estimates. This detailed plan will not be completed until next year. As a result, we have asked the commission to continue the current decommissioning funding of $23 million a year until we can incorporate the detailed plan. As shown on Page 15, we have reaffirmed our updated core earnings guidance from the June 7 SONGS update call. We have updated our basic earnings per share guidance to reflect the second quarter noncore items. Other than the amount we recorded for the impairment charge for SONGS versus the prior range we provided, all of the guidance elements remain unchanged. Page 16 also reaffirms our dividend policy, which is to return to our targeted dividend range over time to 45% to 55% of SCE's earnings. Ted and I have met with a number of investors over the last few months. We have heard the importance you place on progress with the dividend, as management and the board remain committed to delivering significant shareholder value from both attractive rate base and earnings growth and above-average dividend growth. Thanks, and I'd like to turn the call over for Q&A to the operator.