Charles B. Stanley
Analyst · liquids versus gas
Thanks, and good morning. Richard's already hit the highlights of our first quarter results. I'll try to add some color. I'll give you an update on our plans for the remainder of 2012 and then move on to Q&A. First, QEP Energy grew production to 74.2 Bcfe in the first quarter of 2012. That was a 13% increase over a year ago. But that's not the big story. As I'm sure you saw on our release, we're making excellent progress on our organically growing QEP Energy crude oil and NGL production. In the first quarter, QEP crude oil and NGL production comprised 20% of total volumes. And at the field level, crude oil and NGL sales represented 50% of QEP Energy production revenues. Crude oil and NGL production at QEP totaled 2.4 million barrels in 2012 compared to 1.1 million barrels in the first quarter of 2011. That was a 113% year-over-year increase. And crude oil as a total -- out of total liquids production comprised a little over 50% of total volumes in the quarter. QEP Energy Southern region production in the first quarter was up 5% from 2011 levels. The Midcontinent production, basically the Anadarko Basin production, driven by increased liquids-rich production in the Cana shale and Wash plays in western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, and increased crude oil production in the Marmaton and Tonkawa plays was up 20% from a year ago. Production from the Haynesville-Cotton Valley area in Northwest Louisiana was essentially flat from a year ago. Southern Region crude oil and NGL production increased 46% in the first quarter of 2012 over the first quarter of 2011 to a total of 737,000 barrels. Crude oil, as a percentage of total liquids production, was 40% in the Southern Region. Northern region production was up 24% in the first quarter of 2012 compared to a year ago, driven by a 37% increase in Pinedale gas and NGL production and a 51% increase in Rockies Legacy Production, which was driven primarily by increased crude oil production in the Williston Basin, Bakken/Three Forks play. This growth was slightly offset by a decline in Uinta Basin volumes. Please note that the Uinta Basin year-over-year comparison was distorted by a positive 1.6 Bcfe prior period adjustment back in the first quarter of last year that resulted from a change in QEP's ownership interest in the federal unit. Without that adjustment, Uinta Basin volumes were down only 4% from last year. Keep in mind that we restarted drilling activity in our new Uinta Mesaverde play late in the fourth quarter of last year, so it's going to take a while for us to arrest decline, the underlying base decline in the properties, and turn up the volume growth. Northern Region crude oil and NGL production totaled 1.7 million barrels in the first quarter of 2012. That's a 164% increase over the first quarter of 2011. That increase was driven by a 149% increase in crude oil production from our Rockies Legacy division, primarily from the Williston Basin, and from NGL production at Pinedale, thanks to the start-up in the middle of last year of our Blacks Fork II cryogenic gas processing plant. Crude oil production comprised 54% of Northern Region's total liquids production in the first quarter of 2012. Turning to our Midstream business. Fuel Services had a good quarter, both financially and operationally. The Blacks Fork II plant continues to operate quite well. And as a result, the Fuel Services' first quarter of 2012 NGL sales totaled 45.2 million gallons or approximately 12,000 barrels a day. And that was a 63% increase over the first quarter of last year. The average realized NGL price for the quarter was $1.07 a gallon. That's essentially flat with a year ago. But importantly, it's down significantly from the $1.38 per gallon average realized price that we had back in the fourth quarter of last year. The biggest driver in the recent decline in overall NGL prices has been the drop in the average price of ethane, which was down 36% from the average price in the fourth quarter. Also note that in the first quarter of 2012, we reported our first clean quarter of operational results from Blacks Fork 2. That is with no noise from line pack inventory in either QEP Energy or QEP Field Services that we experienced and talked to you about in the third and fourth quarters of last year. So for the first time this quarter, the percentage of ethane in our average NGL barrel has increased significantly relative to historic levels. And that should now be pretty stable going forward until we bring on our next cryo plant, Iron Horse II, which should start up in the first quarter of next year. From a macro perspective, we talked about this last quarter, the decline in ethane prices appears to be the result of a near balance in supply and demand in the ethane market, exacerbated by normal plant turnarounds in the ethylene complex, which generally occur during the winter and certainly occurred during the first quarter of 2012. And that's been exacerbated by an excess of propane due to the unusually warm winter of 2011, 2012 that we had. And of course, propane can be cracked and substituted for ethane and the ethylene complex. So that's added to the apparent oversupply. The good news is we have seen some recent strengthening in ethane prices as the ethylene crackers are returning to normal service. It's important to note that the raw NGL product from our plants here in the Rockies all ends up down in Mont Bellevue, Texas, which as you all know is the premium market for NGLs. As a result, even with the pullback in pricing, our processing margins remain well above historic levels. Fuel services gathering volumes were up 4% from a year ago driven primarily by increased volumes on systems connected to the Blacks Fork hub, which, of course, includes the Pinedale Anticline. Blacks Fork's hub volumes totaled $61.2 million Mmbtus during the first quarter of 2012. That's 6% higher from the first quarter of 2011. Cotton Valley-Haynesville volumes also increased about 6% to $20 million Mmbtus. And this increase was partially offset by a 6% decline in Uinta Basin gathering volumes. So looking forward to the remainder of this year, we gave you a lot of details on our current drilling activities and our results of recent wells in our release yesterday, so I'm not going to repeat that information. I'd also draw your attention to the slides that we put out on our website yesterday that accompanied our release. As you know, natural gas prices have continued to drop with the remainder of 2012 NYMEX price hovering around $2.38 in Mmbtu. In response, we've made and will continue to make changes through our capital allocation in QEP Energy. Those changes are summarized graphically on the slide, in the front of the deck Slide 4 that shows our capital allocation to each of our plays. You'll note that the radic [ph] decline in capital and allocated to the dry gas Haynesville play today were down to 1 rig operating in the Haynesville. And we'll drop that rig this summer when it finishes drilling 80 acre development wells in the section it currently occupies. Also note that we were anticipating a significant decrease in outside our operated activity in the Haynesville for the remainder of 2011. We're now allocating 89% of our forecasted capital in QEP Energy to crude oil and liquids-rich natural gas plays. Our focus will be on driving crude oil production in the Northern Region, in the Williston Basin, Three Forks, in the Powder River Basin, Sussex, Shannon, and in the Uinta Basin Green River plays, where you'll note we're picking up a third rig in the Uinta Basin focused solely on drilling Green River oil wells. In the Southern Region, we'll continue to focus on the Marmaton and Tonkawa plays, as well as the shallowest of the Wash plays, the Missouri play in the Texas Panhandle, where we plan to drill some oil wells in the remaining part of the year. We'll also allocate capital to liquids-rich gas plays including our emerging Uinta Basin, Mesaverde play and, of course, to Pinedale in the Northern Region, and to the up dip wet portion of the Cana shale play in the Southern Region. Our release gives you a lot of details on our current thinking on rig count in each of the plays and other details. Jay Neese is here with us today and he'll be happy to give you more color on our thoughts around individual plays and our evolving plans at QEP Energy during Q&A. At Fuel services, our plans call for an investment of roughly $170 million in several major projects and in a number of smaller ones. We recently broke ground on our next cryogenic gas processing plant, the 150 million cubic foot a day Iron Horse II plant, which is located in the Uinta Basin in eastern Utah. About half of the Iron Horse II plant capacity is contracted by a third-party producer under a fee-based processing arrangement, and the other half will be available to process QEP Energy's growing liquids-rich gas volumes from the Uinta Basin, the Red Wash-Mesaverde play. We've also announced sanction, construction of a 10,000 barrel a day NGL fractionator at our Blacks Fork complex in western Wyoming, combined with a 5,000 barrel a day fraction that already exists at Blacks Fork. This facility will be designed to provide additional options for marketing purity propane, normal and isobutane and gasoline range products to premium range, local, regional, national. And sometimes, we even send propane by rail into international markets, such as Mexico. We placed orders for major rotating equipment and vessels, and we'll begin fuel construction on this facility in a few months. We expect that the Blacks Fork fractionator will be in service by the end of the second quarter of 2013. Of course, an additional -- in addition to these major projects, we have a number of ongoing minor projects, including well connections and construction and expansion of our existing gathering systems, as well as we're starting work on preliminary design, engineering and procurement activities on additional gas processing capacity here in the Rockies. So at this macro level, we're finally seeing signs that gas-directed drilling is starting to slow down. And we've seen ourselves and other operators drop a number of rigs in dry gas plays, such as the Haynesville and other plays. Even so, we expect that the supply response will be sticky and will lag the downturn in the rig count, while the inventory of standing wells that have yet to be completed is worked through. It's too early to tell if this supply response in conjunction with increased demand driven primarily by increased gas burn in the electric power sector will allow the industry to avoid forced curtailments toward the end of the injection season in the shoulder season this fall. As a reminder, in response to our concern about this, we've been defensive on natural gas prices. And we now have about 74% of our forecasted gas production for the remainder of 2012 protected by derivative contracts, primarily fixed price swaps. We remain focused on allocating capital to the highest return plays in our portfolio, which means we will continue to drive profitable growth in our oil and liquids-rich gas plays, and in our Midstream business for the remainder of 2012 and beyond. And with that, Regina, let's open the lines for questions.