Daniel T. Poston
Analyst · Jefferies
Thanks, Kevin. I'll start with Slide 4 of the presentation. For the quarter, we reported net income of $399 million. Net income to common shareholders was $390 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.43 increased 13% from last quarter's $0.38. Fourth quarter results included $157 million gain on the sale of Vantiv shares and $134 million charge on the termination of FHLB debt. Quarterly results also included $19 million in unrealized losses on Vantiv warrants, $15 million in charges associated with the Visa total return swap and an additional $29 million of pretax charges related to the increase in our mortgage repurchase reserve. Finally, we recognized a $10 million benefit in the tax line during the quarter related to the termination of leases. I'll touch on each of these later in my remarks, but in total, the items I just outlined reduced after-tax earnings by $16 million or about $0.02 per share after tax. All in all, it was a strong quarter for Fifth Third and that gives us a solid foundation as we enter 2013. I'll discuss our outlook toward the end of my remarks. Turning to Slide 5. Tax equivalent net interest income decreased $4 million sequentially to $903 million, and the net interest margin was 3.49% versus 3.56% last quarter. You'll recall that in the fourth quarter, net interest income benefited from several nonrecurring items that, in total, contributed $10 million to NII and 4 basis points to the margin. Excluding the impact of these items on the sequential comparisons, net interest income increased $6 million and the net interest margin declined 3 basis points. Net interest income benefited from lower interest expense due to the full quarter effect of the redemption of trust preferred securities that occurred in the third quarter and also from the termination of the FHLB debt in the fourth quarter. These provided a benefit of $7 million from a sequential comparison standpoint. The additional benefit of loan growth and lower deposit costs was offset by the effects of repricing on loans and investment securities. As I just mentioned, the net interest margin declined 3 basis points, excluding the 4 basis point impact of third quarter items. This reflected 3 basis points of benefit from the full quarter effect of the TruPs redemption in the third quarter and the termination of FHLB debt in the fourth quarter. The remaining decline of about 6 basis points was primarily due to lower loan and securities yields. On the loan side, we've seen continued compression in yields, primarily driven by loan repricing, mainly in the C&I and auto portfolios. On the C&I side, the portfolio average yield was down 7 basis points compared with last quarter as a result of repricing and mix shift toward higher quality loans. In the indirect auto portfolio, the average yield also continued to decline, largely reflecting the portfolio effect of replacing older higher-yielding loans with new lower-yielding loans. Turning to the balance sheet on Slide 6. Average earning assets increased $1.5 billion sequentially, driven by growth in average portfolio loans and leases up $1.1 billion or 1% sequentially. End-of-period loans increased $2.7 billion or 3% sequentially. Looking at each of the portfolios, average commercial loans held for investment increased $788 million or 2% from the third quarter and increased $3.1 billion or 7% year-over-year. C&I loans of $34 billion grew $1.2 billion or 4% from last quarter and increased $4.4 billion or 15% from a year ago. Notably, C&I loans on an end-of-period basis were up $2.7 billion or 8% from last quarter, with strong growth in December reflecting success in our corporate banking business and tax planning actions by businesses in advance of year end. C&I production remains broad based across industries and sectors, with particular strength in the manufacturing and healthcare industries. We continue to see the benefit of our investments over the past several years. For example, we recently added a number of experienced bankers in the energy group, and that group contributed about 10% of our new C&I production this quarter. Commercial mortgage and commercial construction balances declined in the aggregate by $430 million sequentially or 4%. While our originations continue to increase modestly in this area, we've also seen increased payoffs driven by market activity. Average consumer loans in the portfolio increased $267 million or 1% sequentially and $976 million or 3% from a year ago. Residential mortgage loans held for investment were up 2% sequentially, reflecting strong originations and continued retention of jumbo loans, as well as shorter-term, high-quality residential mortgages originated through our retail branch system. Average auto loan balances increased 1% compared with the third quarter. We remain focused on managing volume and pricing in this business given the competitive environment. Home-equity loan balances were down 2% sequentially, and average credit card balances were up 3% sequentially, benefiting from seasonal purchase volume. Moving on to deposits. Average core deposits increased $2.6 billion or 3% from the third quarter. Transaction deposits, which exclude consumer CDs, increased $2.7 billion or 3% sequentially and $4.6 billion or 6% from a year ago, with growth driven by demand deposits. Consumer CDs declined $130 million in the quarter due to our continued disciplined approach to CD pricing. Turning to fees, which are outlined on Slide 7. Fourth quarter noninterest income was $880 million, an increase of $209 million from last quarter. Current quarter fee results included $157 million gain on the sale of Vantiv shares that we announced in December, also a $19 million loss on Vantiv warrants and $15 million in charges on the Visa total return swap. Excluding these items and similar items last quarter, fee income of $757 million was up $82 million or 12% sequentially, which was driven by strong mortgage banking and corporate banking revenue results. Looking at each line item in detail. Deposit service charges increased 5% sequentially and declined 1% from the prior year. The sequential increase was driven by consumer deposit fees, which were up 10% due to seasonality, as well as the initial benefit of transitioning to our new simplified deposit product offerings. Commercial deposit fees increased 2% sequentially and 6% over the prior year, due to account growth and increased treasury management sales revenue. Corporate banking revenue of $114 million was the highest in company history, as Kevin noted, which increased $13 million from a strong third quarter level and $32 million from last year. The growth was primarily driven by higher syndication and business lending fees. As I mentioned, year-end tax law changes drove a number of corporate transactions or accelerated their timing. More significantly, investments in our capital markets and treasury management capabilities are creating more lead opportunities and increased production, and we led or co-led over half of our syndicated transactions during the fourth quarter. Mortgage banking net revenue of $258 million increased 29% from the third quarter and 65% from a year ago. Originations were $7 billion this quarter, matching our highest quarter ever and compared with $5.8 billion last quarter. Gain on sale revenue was a record $239 million, up $13 million from strong third quarter levels on higher volumes, partially offset by lower gain on sale margins. MSR valuation adjustments, including hedges, were a positive $7 million in the fourth quarter compared with a negative $40 million last quarter. Investment advisory revenue increased 1% from last quarter and 3% from the prior year, largely due to higher private client services revenue and institutional trust fees. This was partially offset by lower mutual fund fee revenue, which resulted from the sale of certain mutual funds which closed in the third quarter. Card and processing revenue was $66 million, up 2% from the third quarter and 10% from a year ago, reflecting higher sales and transaction volumes. Turning next to other income within fees. Other income was $215 million this quarter versus $78 million last quarter. Excluding unusual items I outlined a moment ago, other income was $92 million and was consistent with the prior quarter's levels. Credit costs recorded in other noninterest income were $13 million in the fourth quarter compared with $14 million last quarter and $33 million a year ago. Now turning to expenses, which are on Slide 8. Noninterest expense of $1.2 billion increased $157 million sequentially or 16%. There was a lot of noise in expenses both this quarter and last. In the fourth quarter, expenses included $134 million charge on FHLB debt termination, $26 million in additional expense resulting from the increase in mortgage repurchase reserves and $13 million from increases to litigation reserves. Prior quarter results included $26 million of costs associated with the TruPs redemption and $22 million from an increase in mortgage repurchase reserves. Excluding these items from both quarters, noninterest expense was $990 million and increased $32 million or 3% from the third quarter. That increase was driven by higher compensation-related expenses, primarily due to very strong mortgage and commercial loan production during the quarter. Additionally, we reported $6 million in annual pension curtailment expense during the fourth quarter. Credit-related costs and operating expense were $68 million, up $9 million from last quarter, due to higher mortgage repurchase expense. Mortgage repurchase expense was $44 million this quarter compared with $36 million last quarter. Realized losses were $15 million this quarter, which was consistent with last quarter. As we previously announced, Freddie Mac informed us that they were planning to request files beginning in the fourth quarter, and on an ongoing basis, for any loan that was nonperforming. In December, we received additional information from Freddie Mac regarding changes they've made to their selection criteria, as well as the timeframe for requesting files, which now includes the years 2004 through 2006. Previously, they were using a 2007 and forward timeframe. As a result, we further increased our reserves to incorporate estimates of probable losses on repurchases from the 2004 through 2006 timeframe. We do not have the same type of information from Fannie Mae, which represented approximately 23% of our servicing portfolio and roughly 20% of the loans sold to GSEs over the past 10 years. Moving on to Slide 9 and PPNR. Pre-provision net revenue was $616 million in the fourth quarter compared with $568 million in the third quarter. Excluding the items noted on this slide, PPNR in the fourth quarter was $638 million, up 7% from the results in the third quarter similarly adjusted and among the strongest results we've ever reported. Adjusted PPNR to risk-weighted assets was 2.3% versus 2.0% in the third quarter. The effective tax rate was 26.8% this quarter compared with 27.7% last quarter. The fourth quarter included a $10 million benefit from the termination of leases that we settled during the quarter. Now turning to credit results. Credit results showed substantial and continued improvement during the fourth quarter, and absolute levels of virtually every credit metric were the best we've reported since 2007 prior to the crisis. Starting with charge-offs on Slide 10. Total net charge-offs of $147 million declined $9 million or 6% from the third quarter and $92 million or 38% from a year ago. The net charge-off ratio was 70 basis points this quarter. That compares with 119 basis points a year ago and is the lowest we reported in more than 5 years. Commercial net charge-offs of $56 million declined 10% sequentially and 50% from a year ago. At 46 basis points, this was the lowest level reported since the third quarter of 2007. The biggest improvement was in commercial mortgage charge-offs, which were down $11 million or 39% from last quarter, partially offset by a $7 million increase in C&I losses. Total consumer net charge-offs were $91 million, down 3% sequentially and down 28% from a year ago. The improvement continues to be driven by lower residential mortgage and home equity losses. Moving on to nonperforming assets on Slide 11. NPAs, including held-for-sale, totaled $1.3 billion at quarter end, down $174 million or 12% from the third quarter. Excluding held-for-sale, NPAs were $1.3 billion or 1.49% of loans and were down $160 million from the third quarter, driven by improvement in commercial NPAs. Commercial portfolio NPAs of $883 million, or 1.78% of loans, declined $134 million sequentially and are at their lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2007. Most portfolio categories improved, with commercial real estate NPAs down $77 million and C&I NPAs down $55 million. Commercial TDRs on nonaccrual status, which are included in portfolio NPAs, were down $177 million -- or were $177 million, up $24 million on a sequential basis. Commercial accruing TDRs were down $11 million and also remained fairly low at $431 million. In the consumer portfolio, NPAs declined $26 million to $403 million or 110 basis points, with NPLs down $15 million, driven by improvement in residential mortgage. Non-accruing consumer TDRs were $187 million, down $5 million from last quarter. Accruing consumer TDRs were $1.66 billion, consistent with last quarter. The TDR book continues to perform as expected and has stabilized as opportunities for new restructuring become more limited with stabilizing residential real estate credit conditions. The next slide, Slide 12, includes a roll-forward of nonperforming loans. Commercial inflows in the fourth quarter were $68 million, down 44% from the third quarter. Consumer inflows for the quarter were $145 million, down 10%. These were the lowest inflows we've seen for both commercial and consumer NPLs since prior to the crisis. Moving to Slide 13, which outlines delinquency trends. Loans 30 to 89 days past due totaled $330 million, down $15 million, and loans over 90 days past due were $195 million, down $6 million from the third quarter. Total delinquencies of $525 million decreased $21 million or 4% from the third quarter and remain at precrisis levels. Commercial-criticized asset levels also continued to improve in the fourth quarter, with the seventh consecutive quarter of decline, down $800 million or 14% sequentially. The provision and allowance are outlined on Slide 14. Provision expense of $76 million for the quarter was up $11 million and included a reduction in the loan loss allowance of $71 million. Allowance coverage remained strong at 180% of nonperforming loans and 3.2x annualized net charge-offs. Slide 15 outlines our recent mortgage repurchase experience. Claims and losses associated with GSEs have remained fairly stable over the past several quarters. But we expect this will likely increase as Freddie Mac reviews all nonperforming loans for potential put-back and will now do so back to 2004. We've provided a detailed breakout of loans sold by vintage and remaining balance. Repurchase requests and losses have been concentrated in the 2005 to 2008 vintages, about 78% of the total. Those loans represent just 11% of the remaining balances. One last topic on credit. As you're aware, last quarter, the OCC issued guidance related to consumer loans to borrowers that have been through Chapter 7 bankruptcy and have not reaffirmed their loan. This guidance included classifying such loans as TDRs, writing them down to their collateral value and classifying them as nonperforming. We are not an OCC bank and the Federal Reserve and FDIC have not issued similar guidance. We currently estimate that we have approximately $175 million of loans that would fall into this category, about 1/3 of which have already been through the TDR process and 87% of which are current. From a charge-off perspective, our exposure to a change in the guidance, similar to the OCC guidance, would be a requirement to write these loans down to appraised value despite the fact that they continue to make contractual payments. If that guidance were adopted by our regulators, we estimate that this would result in charge-offs of about $70 million, which would be offset by currently existing reserves of about $10 million. Clearly, this would be manageable for us and we continue to monitor those developments closely, but we have no basis for taking these charges at this time until and unless there is a change in regulatory guidance on this topic. Turning to capital, which is on Slide 16. Capital levels continue to be very strong and included the repurchase of approximately $225 million in common shares this quarter. Tier 1 common ratio at the end of the quarter was 9.5% compared with 9.7% last quarter, due to the impact of share repurchases in the quarter. Other regulatory capital ratios showed similar trends. The tangible common equity ratio was 9.1%, including unrealized gains of $375 million after tax and 8.8% excluding those. Our capital position would also be strong from a Basel III perspective with a current estimated Tier 1 common ratio of about 8.8%, assuming no changes to the proposed rules and before any mitigation activity on our part. That reflects about 40 basis points of benefit on the numerator side, offset by the detriment from an increase in risk-weighted assets. As you know, regulators are currently considering public comments on these proposals. During the quarter, we entered into 2 share repurchase transactions. The first, in November, was part of our normal capital management and involved the repurchase of approximately $125 million in common shares. The second, in December, followed an after-tax gain on the sale of Vantiv shares and resulted in a repurchase of approximately $100 million of common shares. These share repurchase transactions were conducted through counterparty arrangements, and they're expected to settle in the first quarter. As Kevin noted, we reduced our period-end share count by 38 million shares or 4% in 2012, while our common equity capital ratios actually grew modestly. Our 2012 capital plan also included an additional $125 million of possible repurchases through the first quarter of 2013, which we will likely consider shortly. Turning to the full year 2013 outlook in comparison to 2012, which is on Slide 17. You'll notice this quarter that we have shifted to an annual outlook as we head into 2013. This is consistent with our practice prior to the crisis. The effects of that period and the numerous uncertainties that followed made it difficult to confidently provide longer-term expectations. We believe that while the environment continues to be challenging, those uncertainties have lessened and we believe it is a better practice to provide a longer-term view of where we think the company is headed, hence the change. Our plan would be to provide an update to our annual outlook with each quarter's earnings announcement. We also expect our outlook commentary to continue to include additional quarterly information, where there are expected departures from the overall trends, particularly sequential impacts, such as the effects of seasonality, and I'll start with a few such comments before turning to full year results. The strength of our fourth quarter 2012 results and momentum provide us with a good foundation for 2013. Ending loan balances were significantly higher than fourth quarter average balances, which will benefit NII. Mortgage pipelines and corporate banking pipelines are strong. We have carefully managed headcount throughout the year. It was down 3% from year-end 2011 levels, and we will continue to do so. As a result, we're expecting a solid first quarter, given the strength of the quarter that we just reported, although, as usual, we will experience negative first quarter seasonal effects. These include: seasonally higher FICA and unemployment expense, about $28 million higher than fourth quarter levels; the impact of 2 fewer days in the quarter, which will reduce NII by $12 million; and the impact of stock option expirations in the first quarter, which will raise the effective tax rate from its normal 28% rate to about 30% and reduce net income by about $10 million. I'll include additional comments about the first quarter as I discuss each line item. Turning to our 2013 overall outlook, I would note that we have not assumed the benefit of any capital actions beyond the first quarter. We've assumed no meaningful improvement in the forward yield curve, and we have not incorporated any unusual items, such as any potential Vantiv gains or the Chapter 7 bankruptcy guidance issue that I just outlined. I'll start with net interest income and net interest margin. We currently expect full year 2013 NII to be consistent with full year 2012 NII of $3.6 billion. We anticipate the full year NIM to fall to the 335 to 340 basis point range. The key drivers of 2013 full year trends are loan growth, particularly C&I loans, which we expect to offset the effect of margin compression. We expect margin compression will be higher in the first 2 quarters of 2013 as the portfolio reprices to prevailing rates and then for it to begin to stabilize in the second half as those effects wear off. For the first quarter, we expect NII to be in the $885 million range, reflecting $12 million of seasonal impact to day count, as well as repricing of securities and loans, partially offset by loan growth and a full quarter benefit of the fourth quarter FHLB debt termination. We currently expect NII to grow during the year after the first quarter, strengthening in the second half as margin compression subsides, with some benefit of 2008 CDs maturing in the third and fourth quarters. We will continue to look for opportunities to mitigate the effects of the interest rate environment, including liability management, as we move through the year. Turning to loan growth. We expect mid to high single-digit growth from the full -- from the 2012 full year average, driven by continued growth in C&I, residential mortgage and auto lending, stabilization in commercial real estate and continued runoff in the home equity portfolio. We assume we will continue to retain only jumbo and branch-originated mortgage product. We expect deposits to remain relatively stable or to grow modestly with growth in transaction deposit balances and continued runoff in consumer CD balance. Now moving on to overall fee income and expense expectations for 2013. First, in order to provide clearer perspective on core trends, we've adjusted 2012 comparative results on this slide to exclude Vantiv-related impacts, as well as debt termination charges, which were the largest unusual items in 2012. Vantiv transactions contributed net $305 million to fee income for 2012, while debt termination charges increased expenses by a total of $169 million. The net benefit to PPNR of these items was $136 million. Those adjustments are listed in the footnote. Overall, we currently expect low single-digit total fee income growth in 2013 compared with adjusted fee income in 2012. That would reflect growth across most fee categories, with the exception of mortgage, where we look for strong results during 2013, particularly in the first quarter, but not as strong as 2012. Looking at the details of our overall fee expectations. We expect to see low double-digit percentage growth in deposit fees, with about 2/3 of that coming from commercial and 1/3 from consumer. This expectation reflects a continuation of recent momentum and treasury management and the full rollout of our simplified consumer deposit set. First quarter deposit fees will likely be consistent with the fourth quarter levels due to seasonality. We expect mid-single-digit growth in investment advisory revenue with solid growth in the first quarter as well. We're looking for high single-digit growth in corporate banking revenue, driven by higher FX fees, institutional sales revenue and business lending fees. Corporate banking should be strong again in the first quarter of 2013, but perhaps $5 million below the fourth quarter's record levels. We anticipate about 10% annual growth in card and processing revenue, driven by continued growth in sales and transaction volumes. This line item will likely be flat in the first quarter due to seasonality. Turning to mortgage. 2012 mortgage banking revenue was $845 million, reflecting record volumes, the impact of the HARP program and unusually high margins. In 2013, we expect production in margins to decline due to lower HARP refinance volume, some competitive pressure on margins and a waning in the refinance boom. That said, first quarter looks to be quite strong, and we're looking for mortgage revenue in the $230 million range, down about $15 million to $20 million. It's obviously more difficult to forecast further out, but our current expectation for the full year assumes that mortgage revenue declines to the $175 million a quarter range in the middle of the year and then drifts down slowly thereafter. Our quarterly base expectation for the other income caption would be in the $75 million range, plus or minus, absent significant unusual items, which we will have from time to time. We would expect lower credit costs in this line item to be a contributor here. To return to our overall expectations for fee income, while we expect a declining contribution from our mortgage banking revenue, we expect growth in other fee income categories to generally pick up the slack from a trend perspective. In terms of the first quarter, we look for fees to be in the $700 million range or perhaps a little better. Turning to expenses. We currently expect total noninterest expenses to be relatively consistent with 2012 expenses, excluding the $169 million in debt termination charges on the FHLB debt and TruPs I noted earlier. Personnel costs are expected to be stable to down slightly versus 2012, with lower mortgage repurchase expense and very modest growth in other operating expenses. The other expense caption should average about $300 million a quarter, with lower credit costs, absent any significant unusual transactions we may experience. First quarter expenses are currently expected to be in the $995 million range, consistent with fourth quarter core expenses. As I noted earlier, that will include a seasonal increase of about $28 million for FICA and unemployment. Those same expenses should go back down by about $20 million in the second quarter. We expect expenses otherwise to be relatively stable through the year, and our current expectation is for an efficiency ratio of about 60% in the second half of the year. We'll continue to manage expenses carefully and aggressively and in line with revenue results and the economic environment. In terms of PPNR, we've adjusted the 2012 column on the slide for the $136 million net benefit of the impact of Vantiv and debt termination. As I outlined in my remarks to this point, our overall expectation is for moderate growth in PPNR in 2013 compared with the strong results in 2012. That's despite a rate environment that is not conducive to normalized NII results and comparisons to a record year for mortgage revenue. As I noted earlier, first quarter PPNR results will include the seasonal negative impact of $40 million in NII and expense lines. We expect full year 2013 effective tax rate to be in the 28% to 28.5% range, which is consistent with 2012. We anticipate a higher effective tax rate in the first quarter, about 30%, as a result of the tax effect of stock options expirations. That represents about $10 million in the tax line in the first quarter. As a reminder, last year, this impact occurred in the second quarter. Turning to credit. We look for continued improvement in credit trends, with full year net charge-offs currently expected to be down about $200 million or so and the improvement fairly evenly distributed between commercial and consumer. We expect the full year net charge-off ratio to be in the 55 to 60 basis point range, compared with the 85 basis points we reported this year. We currently expect NPAs to decline about 20% to 25% during 2013, with continued resolution of commercial NPAs being the largest driver of the reduction. First quarter charge-offs should be down about $5 million to $10 million, and NPAs should be down about $50 million to $75 million. For the loan loss allowance, we expect continued reductions during 2013, with the ongoing benefit of improvement in credit results being partially offset by new reserves related to loan growth. Finally, as I noted in my earlier discussion, our 2013 capital plan submission included potential share repurchases. Our 2012 capital plan included $600 million of repurchases over a 5-quarter period. The 2013 CCAR process covers 4 quarters, but otherwise, our plan is generally consistent from the perspective of the pace of proposed repurchase activity. Obviously, those plans would be contingent on both a non-objection to our plan from the Federal Reserve and on our board's future decisions regarding the actual implementation of share repurchases. Overall, our capital plan submission would remain -- maintain common equity capital ratios in the same general ballpark as current levels. As a result, our plan is probably somewhat more conservative than our capital and earnings would support, but we think that is the right place to be with respect to CCAR process at this stage. In summary, we are very pleased to close out 2012 on a strong note and that gives us confidence as we move into 2013. The environment is challenging, but we've had momentum in a number of core businesses that should support our ability to generate core PPNR growth and we expect ongoing improvement in credit trends. These trends would drive continued strong return measures. Added to those strengths is our capacity for continued prudent capital actions that would further contribute to earnings per share. That wraps up my remarks. Pamela, can you open up the line for questions?