Earnings Labs

Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)

Q2 2023 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 30, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Five Below Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Christiane Pelz, VP of Investor Relations and Treasury. Please go ahead.

Christiane Pelz

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us today for Five Below's second quarter 2023 financial results conference call. On today's call are Joel Anderson, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ken Bull, Chief Operating Officer; and Kristy Chipman, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. After management has made their formal remarks, we will open the call to questions. Please limit yourself to one question to enable us to accommodate everyone in the queue. I need to remind you that certain comments made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to and within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. Such forward-looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Those risks and uncertainties are described in the press release and our SEC filings. The forward-looking statements made today are as of the date of this call, and we do not undertake any obligation to update our forward-looking statements. If you do not have a copy of today's press release, you may obtain one by visiting the Investor Relations page of our website at fivebelow.com. I will now turn the call over to Joel.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Thank you, Christiane. Before I get started, I want to officially introduce Kristy Chipman to you as our new CFO and Treasurer. We are really excited to have her on board. And while she's only been here six weeks, she has hit the ground running and is already well immersed in the business. As you recall, we promoted Ken Bull to COO in March, and he has been a great resource to help with the transition. Kristy, welcome to Five Below. Moving now to our second quarter results. We are pleased to deliver Q2 in line with our guidance with sales growth over 13% to $759 million and 2.7% comp sales increase, which continued to be driven by transactions. Our comp transactions increased a strong 4.5%. This once again illustrates the success of our Five Beyond conversion strategy and the appeal of our WOW offering that represents outstanding value, value that is even more appealing when customers are stretching their dollars further. Diluted earnings per share came in towards the high end of our outlook range, increasing approximately 14% to $0.84. Our merchant teams again curated a product assortment that reinforces Five Below's relevancy, and we saw continued popularity of a broad variety of trends across our world. Notable performers were Squish, Hello Kitty, Anime, Collectibles and our version of consumables, including candy, snacks and beverages. Our teams also captured the popular Swifty trend with stylish clothing, jewelry, such as friendship bracelets and beauty products. Finally, we were thrilled to see licenses begin to grow again as new movie releases like the Super Mario Brothers in April and Barbie in late July drove customers into theaters in our stores. In anticipation of a successful release of the Barbie movie, our buyers were able to source several Barbie related items, including…

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Thanks Joel. And I also want to extend a warm welcome to Kristy. It's great to have her on board. And in just six weeks, she has taken over all of my previous finance duties while building connections within and beyond the finance organization. As part of my new role as COO, I am responsible for the inventory optimization pillar, as well as ensuring the other four pillars are on track, thereby allowing us to collectively achieve our Triple-Double vision. Over the last several years, we have done a great job managing a volatile supply chain, while also implementing tools and systems for efficiency. Our current inventory levels reflect an improved supply chain and we are pleased with the health of our inventory, as we enter the back half of the year and expect to be well positioned for the all-important holiday season. We have a great opportunity ahead of us to continue to better leverage inventory as an asset, to drive sales and maximize profits. Using technology and data analytics, we are focused on improving inventory forecasting, ordering, replenishment and flow with a goal of increasing in-stocks and turns and improving end-to-end visibility. We have already begun the work on both a new merchandise financial planning system and the replenishment forecasting tool. Regarding my oversight of the other pillars, we've established a reporting cadence and developed better cross-functional communication to streamline and focus our initiatives and activities and I feel very positive about the progress we've made. Finally, I am also leading a team to focus on operational mitigation efforts to counter the elevated shrink trends Joel just mentioned. Now I'll turn it over to Kristy to go through our second quarter results and guidance. Kristy?

Kristy Chipman

Analyst

Thanks Ken and good afternoon everyone. I'm excited to be here at Five Below and talk with you today. I'd like to thank the team at Five Below for the warm welcome to the adopted family. I have spent the last six weeks diving into the business, visiting stores and meeting the crew. And I'm happy to say that what I saw from the outside has been validated. Five Below is a unique brand with tremendous growth opportunities led by an amazing crew with a culture that is second to none. I am looking forward to partnering with the business to achieve the triple-double vision and getting to know each of you as well. Now, on to the financials. I'll begin my remarks with a review of our second quarter results and then provide guidance for the full year and the third quarter. Our sales for the second quarter of 2023 increased 13.5% to $759 million over the last year. Comparable sales increased by 2.7%, with comp transactions increasing 4.5%, partially offset by a comp ticket decrease of 1.8%. We are pleased to see a meaningful increase in comp transactions in our converted stores, validating our investment in this strategy. In addition, our non-converted stores also delivered positive comp transactions. The decrease in comp ticket was driven by lower units per transaction, partially offset by a slight increase in average unit retail price, similar to what we have seen for several quarters now. We opened 40 new stores across 24 states in the second quarter compared to 27 new stores opened in the second quarter last year and continued to be pleased with the productivity of our new locations. We ended the quarter with 1,407 stores, an increase of 155 stores or approximately 12%. Gross profit for the second quarter…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jeremy Hamblin with Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Please go ahead.

Jeremy Hamblin

Analyst

Thanks. Congrats Kristy on joining the Five Below team. I thought I might start with asking a question on shrink and just understanding in terms of 20 basis point change in the operating margin for the year. What portion of that is attributable to your change in shrink reserves for the year? And then secondly, and related to that, if you're observing higher shrink do you sense that there might be any change in terms of the self-checkout kiosks that have been added to all the new stores and so forth, the strategy of just rolling that out? Or do you feel like the mitigation strategies that you're working on can adapt to the environment and we can move forward in the pathway that you've gone the last couple of years?

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yes. Thanks Jeremy. Let me take that. I mean, obviously, with us not changing the topline, the 20 basis point decline is really the only change from the last quarter, and that pretty much is all based on the changes we're making with the assumption of shrink. I think, though, you asked a lot of questions about ACO, a lot of questions about mitigation. And Ken, maybe you got a few comments because I think in Ken's role both as past CFO and then now in his role as COO, he's responsible for kind of all things inventory. And maybe where we're at right now and what we're doing about it.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Sure. Thanks Joel, thanks Jeremy. What I'd like to do is just give a little bit of history around this because Jeremy, you asked specifically around shrink rate. And if you all recall, at the beginning of this year, on our fiscal 2022 year-end call, we did note that we had experienced higher shrink levels last year and we had about a 30 basis point annual increase that impacted over 2021. Based on that, we increased our reserves in 2023 to reflect this higher rate that we exited in 2022. And also in response, you mentioned some of the mitigating areas that we could work on, and I'll talk a little bit about that. But we did increase and we revised our asset protection policies and tactics. Kristy had mentioned also that this month, we're right in the middle of conducting our standard interim physical inventories on a subset of our stores, it's a little bit over one-third of our stores, so a meaningful population of the stores. And we are seeing initial kind of elevated levels versus what we noted at the end of last year. And I think you're all familiar with the recent media and videos that are out there where retailers across the sector are experiencing increased levels of shrink and related crime incidents and we are not immune to this as we're finding out. Again, as Kristy mentioned, from a financial perspective, based on these preliminary indications from the work that we're doing, we do expect a net financial impact to the 2023 operating margin of about 20 basis points. So, that includes the impact of mitigating efforts both in shrink reduction and also other enterprise-wide cost savings initiatives. The true shrink rates that we're experiencing, obviously would be higher than that based on being…

Jeremy Hamblin

Analyst

Thanks for all the color. Best wishes.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Thanks Jeremy.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Seth Sigman with Barclays.

Seth Sigman

Analyst · Barclays.

Hey everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. So my main question is around what's been happening with ticket. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on with the price points? Your ASPs, I think you said were up slightly, but I would think that's largely mix. Any more insight into how you're managing price points as certain input costs come down? And then when you look at the lower UPT, I think that's been a trend for some time. If I recall last quarter, you talked about some improvement, but just any more context there? Thanks, so much.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Barclays.

Yes. Seth, that has been very consistent quarter-over-quarter. And I think the area we're probably most pleased with is the progress we're making on transactions, which is really our proxy for traffic. The UPTs are only down slightly and AUR is only up slightly. So, the comp sales we're getting is more than coming from transactions, and it's not coming from just taking price up. And so, while we've taken up price slightly, it's really not the main driver of where you're seeing our comp increases come from. It's all really coming from transactions.

Seth Sigman

Analyst · Barclays.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Brian Nagel

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Hi, good afternoon. Kristy, welcome.

Kristy Chipman

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Thank you.

Brian Nagel

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

My question just on SG&A, you addressed this a little bit in prepared comments, but -- so we've had this elevated SG&A growth rate for the first half of the year, you're telegraphing it to remain elevated in the second half, recognizing you haven't provided guidance for the next fiscal year. But I mean, how should we just generally think about those SG&A expenses as we go from this year to next year?

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Yes, I mean, Brian, it's a great question. And as pretty unfair for Kristy to answer. She's just getting in here for the first six weeks. But -- and our tradition is as we get closer to the end of the year, we'll give you that guidance. But I think it's safe to say, especially with the explosive growth we see coming in new stores that you will see leverage next year at the operating margin level. We got to figure out where does it fit between gross margin and SG&A. But as you just heard, Ken give a lot of examples on shrink mitigation, a lot of that's going to come out of SG&A to cover that. So, net-net, I would look at it at the operating margin level. And it's our job to mitigate this. No different than any other -- these other macro environments we face and translate that into margin expansion. And just to remind everybody, and I said it in my prepared remarks, I mean, we have over 130 stores coming out here in the next four months. And I also shared with you we expect our new store opening cadence next year to get back closer to 50-50. So there's a lot of growth happening in the next 10 months or so here. I don't know, Ken, anything you'd add on that?

Kenneth Bull

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Yes. Just -- I mean, Brian, you heard Joel mentioned in the prepared remarks, still feel extremely confident around the Triple-Double vision with really kind of the drivers there being the unit growth the comp opportunity and the profit profile, which assumes leverage. So in line with what Joel said.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

But too early to be giving specific callouts for next year.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Right.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Thanks Brian.

Brian Nagel

Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Appreciate. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

Chuck Grom

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

Hey. Thanks. Good afternoon, everybody. Just wondering if you guys could speak to the cadence of the comp throughout the quarter. And then if we take the midpoint of your 3Q comp guide, it does it does imply a pretty big uptick on the four-year stack relative to the second quarter, but consistent with the first quarter. So, I guess my question is, can you remind us if there's any unusual compares over the past couple of years that drove that and/or the factors that support the implied acceleration in the comp?

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

Yes. Hey Chuck. I think the way we look at it is, look at your four-year average store growth. Look at your four-year CAGR.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

Yes.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

And I think if you compare our first half four-year CAGR, it's in the mid-high-teens.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

High-teen, Yes.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

Aren’t that right, Kristy?

Kristy Chipman

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

Yes, high teens.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

And then what's implied for the back half of the year is almost identical, it's within 10 or 20 basis points. I think, Chuck, that's a better way to look at it in terms of the comp. And then for within the Q2 cadence, it was relatively in line all three months. It's consistent.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

And also, Chuck, just to add to that, our guide for Q3 is pretty much in line with what we had expected early on. If you recall, I think we spoke about this on the fourth quarter call when we gave guidance for the year. In terms of what the cadence would be of -- if you look at kind of a multiyear geo stack performance, the year is really laying out by quarter as we had expected early in the year.

Chuck Grom

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

Okay, great. That’s it.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

Thanks Chuck. Next?

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Matt? Matt?

Operator

Operator

Hello, Matthew. Is your line muted?

Matthew Boss

Analyst

Hey, sorry about that.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Matt, I was going to make up the question for you, but you go ahead, Matt.

Matthew Boss

Analyst

So, Joel, a couple of things. Maybe could you elaborate on category trends that you saw across maybe more discretionary relative to consumables? Any call outs by income cohorts, I know you touched on the third quarter, but anything specific to August to call out? And then maybe just elaborate on the terrific lineup of product that you cited into holiday, and just your flexibility to chase demand in the second half?

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yes. Look, Matt, a lot of questions all on product a little bit. The category trends, first quarter or second quarter, not much change. It continues to skew towards our version of consumables which comes in the form of candy and HBA and the like. So that was pretty consistent from Q1 to Q2. The interesting change that we did call out there was just the emergence of licenses, Mario Brothers and Barbie, while not a huge impact on the quarter, it's just nice to see licenses reemerge. We haven't really seen licenses of anything meaningful since there really hasn't been movies for a few years here. So, that's really good to see. Cohorts, nothing to call out. We continue to really see strength across all the cohorts, but no trade down per se that would call out. And then, hey, we're really pleased with back-to-school and I'm not ready to talk about holiday just for competitive reasons, but we got a great lineup for product. And if anything, I would say our whole store becomes a store of needs in the fourth quarter rather than a store want. So excited about fourth quarter and what's coming this way, Matt.

Matthew Boss

Analyst

Great. Best of luck.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Hey, thank you. You bet.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from John Heinbockel with Guggenheim Securities. Please go ahead.

John Heinbockel

Analyst · Guggenheim Securities. Please go ahead.

All right. Two quick questions, right? So, for Joel, I know you're not ready to talk about holiday, but when I think about, right, the reset of tech and then putting Five Beyond in a bit early in trade down, how would you assess your positioning for the fourth quarter, right? It would seem to be better than it's been in a couple of years. And then for Ken, where do you think the biggest opportunity is on inventory? Because I don't think you've had a big problem on out of stock, right? So, is it that? Or is it just more inventory turnover?

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Guggenheim Securities. Please go ahead.

Yes. Let me just start and turn it over to Ken. Look, I think the biggest change, John, and great call out on the tech reset, but the biggest difference for us is the magnitude of Five Beyond stores we're going to have this year versus last year. I mean, it's approaching close to half our comp stores. And we learned a lot from last year on how the Five Beyond part performed and that's given our merchants a full year to prepare for that. And so I think that's a big running head start this year that we didn't have last year, already would matured licenses and then there's a few other things coming. But we're in a much better situation than prior years. And then, certainly can about inventory, and that's also in a much better shape than last year.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst · Guggenheim Securities. Please go ahead.

Much better position, John. And thanks for the compliment on the in-stocks. But internally, we feel we can still do better there. Within stocks, you mentioned turns. I mean, it's all about buying better at the end of the day, making sure we've got the right inventory in the right location at the right time. And we feel there's still opportunity there for us. The ability Joel spoke about the trends that are out there. We want to make sure we have the ability to continue to place or buy those trends and put them in front of the customers appropriately. So, there's still opportunity out there. And it's going to come from process. It's going to come from technology. We're also incorporating data and analytics. So, we still have a ways to go, to see improvements there.

John Heinbockel

Analyst · Guggenheim Securities. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thank you.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Guggenheim Securities. Please go ahead.

Thanks John. You bet.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst · Guggenheim Securities. Please go ahead.

Thanks John.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good afternoon. Joel, I should restate my name in case, I get a Simon this time.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hey, Simeon. How are you?

Simeon Gutman

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

All right. You got it that time. So, I wanted to follow on this value movement we're seeing in retail and a little bit on the fourth quarter. You said you're not seeing trade down. I'm curious, if you -- your traffic seems to suggest that you're getting your fair share of the value movement, but we're seeing discount mass, even dollar stores do, a little better than others. So, curious, if there's anything there to call out if there's anything within, Five Beyond that's changed? And I think it was a year or it could have been two ago when you called out the fourth quarter being prime positioned for your customer for your value. And to John's point, I think it does lineup reasonably well this time around. Curious, if you can comment on that as well.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Yes. I mean, look, on the trade down, I was more referring to the general sense of how some of the others look at trade down. But clearly, our traffic is up, and it's up to seeing a lot of new customers in the door. And so I think that just shows we're more relevant to more customers. And this is our off season. I mean, I think this time of year, the time when Five Below is the lease needed. So, to see that really ticking up. Our marketing is working, the customer needs it. And then certainly, you called out all the holiday stuff, Simeon, but we're really set up nicely for a great holiday. And I think as value is, is really in vogue again. And there really isn't any other kids' retailer out there. Our store becomes a store of needs for families at holiday time. And -- so I'm really excited about what we're seeing for Q4 here. And we're going into a lot of momentum. Some of the questions John asked about, the tech resets being done earlier. The Five Beyond that are done, et cetera, et cetera. But I know you all want specific items, and those I'm just going to have to say for the next call just for competitive reasons.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Yes. Thanks.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Yes. Thanks, Simeon.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Edward Kelly with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Edward Kelly

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good afternoon everyone. I wanted to ask a follow-up question on shrink. The last time that you talked about shrink after that, I think it was your January accounts. You mentioned the 30 basis point year-over-year headwind. It looks like an additional 20 basis points now, but you have cost mitigation. So, I'm just wondering if you could quantify how much we're really talking in terms of like how much is it really up year-over-year? And then as we think about the forward risk around shrink, I don't think you do rolling count you can again in January, right? Do you think we've seen the bottom here, unemployment still low? And then the last part of all this is where is it coming from there? I think initially, there's a lot of organized crime, stuff that people are talking about. But has this worked its way into more traditional customers and to employees? Thank you.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Yes, I mean, Ed, there's a lot to unpack. And I think for all of you on the call, you just got to remember, we've painted for you probably in our guide, the worst-case scenario, we are still in the process of doing all the reconciliation, quantifying all our mitigation efforts. We'd already mitigated some of the things from the 30 basis increase from last year. I do think we've seen pretty much the high water mark. The difference is now is a year ago, we weren't doing anything about it. In June, we put in a new return policy. We've changed our damages policy. So, all the mitigation efforts we are putting in just started. And also remember, the shrink that we were exiting 2022 on included a lot of stores that that were inventoried back through 2021. This inventory really includes everything from the back half of 2022 and the front half of 2023. So, we have a really good sense now of the high watermark and it's our job to mitigate it. And the fact remains that all retailers are seeing this and as Ken said, somewhat of a silo issue to fully mitigate, but our job is to really get after this and figure out a way to mitigate the increased shrink we're having. And so where is it coming from? It's coming on all angles. And you've got several cities now, which just simply aren't prosecuting below the $500 level. Sadly, our hometown here in Philly is a city that's seen some of our highest shrink rates. And we watch Target, and we've watched Wow Town exit Center City and so while I don't think we're yet at that extreme of closing Five Below stores there, these are the type of integration strategies that will be included as we consider what to do if we don't see things improve. So, it's a big amount that could be, I think, in total, is 50 to 70 basis points and our job is to mitigate that. And we -- as you can tell by our guide, I think it's going to be around 20 basis points.

Edward Kelly

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Ed.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Paul Lejuez with Citi. Please go ahead.

Paul Lejuez

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

Hey thanks guys. Can we talk about the lift, give us an update on the lift you're getting from remodels? Is that trending as good as you'd anticipated? And how does that lift breakdown between transaction and the increase in transactions versus ASP? And how has that changed over time? And then just curious with lift productivity in your invest mature markets versus your more mature markets, what you're seeing? Thanks.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

Yes Paul. I mean, look, nothing's changed on the conversion stores. We're still seeing mid-single-digit lift with transactions being even higher than that in converted stores. So really, I mean, we are uber excited and standing behind this conversion strategy. We've got the 400 that we've done this year and expect to get right back after that again next year with some more stores. But that mid-single-digit lift is consistent with what we saw at the end of last year and are continuing to see this year year-to-date. Did I catch all that there, Paul?

Paul Lejuez

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

That is the first one. Second one is on new store productivity is looking at your mature, more mature markets versus your newer markets, what you're seeing?

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

Well, NSPs were -- I mean, they're -- I think we came in what? Close to--

Kristy Chipman

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

Close to 90.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

90, yes.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

Yes. And it's relatively consistent through the types of stores and regions.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

All right. Thanks Paul.

Paul Lejuez

Analyst · Citi. Please go ahead.

Thanks guys, good luck.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Ciccarelli with Truist. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead.

Hi, guys. This is Joe on for Scott. Thanks so much for taking my question. Actually, I just wanted to follow-up a little bit on the mid-single-digit lift you're seeing in the remodels. Is there anything you'd call out in different areas by income demographics?

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead.

No. Honestly, it's pretty consistent by income demographics, and we're seeing that same type of lift consistently, no matter where we've opened the stores. If anything, we see it a little bit higher if it's an older store that we converted. But in terms of income demographics and that type of thing, it's pretty consistent.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead.

Awesome. Thanks. And then -- and just one follow-up question. I know you guys have been talking about people shopping closer to holidays. Just wanted to see what you were thinking about for Halloween trends this year. Would you expect that incrementally latter half boost versus last year or something around the same?

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead.

Well, yes. No, I think it's -- we've seen it closer to the holiday consistently for over a year now, and I think Halloween will be pretty similar this year as well.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead.

Got it. Thanks so much.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Truist. Please go ahead.

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Lasser with UBS. Please go ahead.

Michael Lasser

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Good evening. Thanks a lot for taking my question.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Hey, Michael.

Michael Lasser

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Hi. In three years prior to the pandemic, follow had a 12% operating margin on average. Now after the 20 basis point reduction to your guidance on the heels of the increased shrink, you're probably going to have around an 11% operating margin despite having $2 billion of incremental sales. So, what needs to happen in order to get back to the 12%? You mentioned that you're going to be targeting operating margin expansion next year, but is it simply a function of generating comp growth to leverage the fixed expenses to drive the margin expansion? Or are there other strategies you can put in place that would restore the profitability back to where it was prior to the pandemic? Thanks.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead.

Yes. Hey. Look, Michael, certainly, the increased shrink was something we didn't think was going to continue this year over last year. And we're working hard now to mitigate that. But let's not lose sight of that aside and you said 11%. So, you're taking -- you're assuming we're going to be closer to our low end of our guide, not the high end of our guide. So, -- and I think as we continue to find things to mitigate it, that's going to improve that. But there's two big things that are coming. We're going to start to get the leverage off of these Five Beyond stores that we put a lot of money into spend a lot of time converting. Those are going to lever for us. And then we're also, we've really accelerated our new stores. And that's been a setback for -- we're about three years behind where we wanted to be back in 2019 due to the pandemic. And so our new stores are really going to come online here. We've got 130 coming on in the next four months, a huge stack coming on the beginning of next year. We haven't back close to a 50-50, and that all contributes towards fixed. And then Ken and his focus on all the investments we've made are really going to help the leverage. We're not opening any distribution centers in the next two years here. We'll lever off those DCs. We're going to lever off the systems we invested in. So, there's a lot of leverage that's coming from all those. I think it's our job to come back to you all towards the end of the year here to quantify that exactly and so you can put those into your models. But I see nothing but upside as we get past this shrink, put mitigation efforts in for that and then take advantage of new store growth and the Five Beyond strategy working. Thanks Michael.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Feldman with Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead.

Joe Feldman

Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead.

Yes. Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Why don't I go back to inventory for a minute? And how are you guys planning inventory for the second half? And how does the shrink impact your plan, meaning presumably, you're finding there's stuff that's not there. And so now it's like you have to maybe order more. And I'm wondering how we should expect inventory to look either on a per store or on a total basis at the end of each quarter? Thanks.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead.

Yes. Thanks Joe. Yes, if we look out in terms of inventory levels, we speak normally to the average inventory on a per store basis. I think if you roll this forward, end of Q3, end of Q4, similar to what we saw at the end of this quarter, we were down double-digits, about 15%. I expect it to be down probably more single-digits. Again, I think that's a reflection, first of us improving our inventory management disciplines there. And then your -- the second part of your question around the shrink, yes, those are we would obviously be allocating more product out to the stores in response to these higher shrink levels. I mean, obviously, we made estimates of what shrink would be, and we're coming in higher than that and then we make the adjustments to make sure the stores are in an appropriate inventory position going forward.

Joe Feldman

Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead.

Got it. Thanks guys. Good luck.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead.

Thanks Joe.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead.

Thanks Joe.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Montani with Evercore. Please go ahead.

Michael Montani

Analyst · Evercore. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys, thanks for taking the question. First, I just wanted to see if there was any call out in terms of geography on the comp and/or if you started August in the comp range? And then I just had a margin follow-up.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Evercore. Please go ahead.

Yes. Mike, if you could just get on next for a margin follow-up. We're trying to get through rest of these calls, but no real geography change. We see it for a week here, a week there when there's like storms that rolled through California a week ago and obviously, Florida right now. But if you look -- put the whole quarter together, pretty consistent across all geographies. And really pleased with the start to Q3 here and yes, absolutely within the range. Thanks. Appreciate that talk there Mike.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Brad Thomas

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Hey. Thanks for taking my question and welcome, Kristy. I'll ask another category and merchandising question to stay off of shrink for now. You mentioned Barbie performing well. I guess the question we've gotten is, was it material here? And any sense that may fade here as Barbie-mania dies down? Maybe this back-to-school, kind of partly underway here, not pulling it away across the whole country. any early trends that you're seeing that may help to drive some acceleration? Thanks.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Yes. Look, I think I called out Barbie, less of it impacted our quarter and more as a shout-out to Barbie and Mario Bros, just that we're starting to see licenses emerge. And -- but it's -- I don't think Barbie is going to -- it's not going to be near as big as Frozen or a couple of the other movie releases, but really pleased that it's there. It's a great example of our merchants staying on trend and really chasing something. Back-to-school, it was all about backpacks. We had a great backpack season, and that's really the sign for there. It is wrapping up here in the Northeast here. I think licenses even in backpacks were pretty relevant. But nothing else to call out there and actually, you'll be seeing us set Halloween in the stores next week. Thanks Brad.

Brad Thomas

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks Joel.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Jason Haas with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Jason Haas

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Hey good afternoon and thanks for taking my question. I know it's a small portion of your business, but I was curious if you could talk about what you've seen with online sales recently? And I'm also curious if you've seen any increased competition from online-only competitors, both to your online business and also the store? And if not, can you just remind us what insulates the Five Below model from online competition? Thanks.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Yes. Look, online has been good for us. Just to remind everybody, it is low single-digit of our total business, which is a very different profile from everybody else. And certainly, what insulates it is it's a small piece of the business, for starters. So, even if it had a material impact, it's a very small impact on our total business. But having said all that, online is great for us. It helps us get an early read. We already have a good sense of what's going to sell in Halloween here because it's been online for about four weeks now. And we do that every -- with every seasonal change, we get it up online first and it more helps us prepare and set the stores. But no impact from -- that we can tell from pure online retailers. Thanks. Appreciate it Jason.

Jason Haas

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Daniel Silverstein with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Daniel Silverstein

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Hey there. Thanks for squeezing me in. Just a quick question on conversions. So, given that transaction growth has driven the comp this year and Five Beyond conversions have help that along. Is the shift in focus to store openings in the back half factored into comp guidance, particularly thinking about 4Q, which potentially embeds the sequential comp acceleration but, no incremental benefit of more conversions? Thank you.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Yes, Dan. It doesn't factor in any incremental conversions at all. And I don't think it was intentional at all that the back half was towards new stores. This is more a factor of the hangover from COVID and the shutdown of supply chains and getting it back open. So our class of 2023 will be back closer to 50-50 and the class of 2023--

Kenneth Bull

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

2024 will be back to 50-50.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

2024 will be back to 50-50. So, this is just the last remains of it. By next year, we're back to a normal cadence of openings, but it doesn't play much into a comp change.

Daniel Silverstein

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thanks. And if I could, just really quickly, can you speak to the availability of potential crew members in how many stores are opening in 2H?

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Yes. You know what we have not had any problems with crew availability and getting stores open. A reminder for everybody, we're really good at hiring 15 and 16-year olds. That's something a lot of retailers don't do. Not 15 and 16, 16 and 17 year olds. And so we have store for kids. We hire kids and everybody loves their first job. And we're a great place for a first job. So, really no problem there, we kick off hiring here in about another three, four weeks and don't expect any issues.

Daniel Silverstein

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Thank you.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

All right. Thank you. You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Anthony Chukumba with Loop Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Anthony Chukumba

Analyst · Loop Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thank you so much for taking my question. I didn't think I'd be able to get it in with all the two and three-part questions that everyone else was asking. I guess my question just real quickly on Barbie, just is your -- would you -- I mean, I've seen the Barbie in your stores. Are you sort of happy with your assortment? Would you -- in other words, is it enough? Would you want to get more? Were you chasing it? Just how do you feel about your Barbie assortment? Thank you.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Loop Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Yes. Hi. Thanks, Anthony. I think it's enough. We are chasing it. The stuff that's sold faster than we thought and we've got more coming in. But we don't see it as something that's going to grow like Frozen did from seven to 11 to 13 feet or something like that. But in certain stores, we definitely are chasing and it's been somewhat short. But overall, we're pretty pleased with it. Thanks Anthony. Appreciate the one-part question.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Krisztina Katai with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Krisztina Katai

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for squeezing us. I just had just a question on store growth and given the acceleration that you're talking to. So, maybe two-parts, can you just talk about your overall ability to get these open on time, if we should think about there's any risk, maybe that some can get pushed later into quarters or early into next year? And then two, could you just talk about what the process looks like now that availability of labor is getting better? Or you're finding incremental real estate locations from closures? Just how best to think about that getting closer to that 50-50 cadence next year.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Yes. Look, answering that second part of the -- first, the biggest thing that changed, unfortunately, I hate to say this, there was a bunch of bankruptcies. And there hasn't been many store bankruptcies in the 2021, 2022 time period and it really accelerated here in back end of 2022 into 2023. So, that's really what helped on filling the pipeline back up so we're back on time. And then in terms of opening on time, really, we're not seeing the supply chain problems that we had and landlords are back to building. We've got a bigger team. We're building -- and it's pretty much flowing. Look, we have a store here and there that will get pushed back for a month or six weeks, but then we'll have another store pull up. So, it's more like we're seeing an even amount of pull-ups as we on are push-backs. Thank you.

Krisztina Katai

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Thank you.

Joel Anderson

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

We got to keep going there. This might be our last call, yes.

Operator

Operator

Yes. The last question comes from Phillip Blee with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Phillip Blee

Analyst

Great. Thank you, guys. I was just hoping you could provide a little bit more color on the transaction growth you saw during the quarter? How much was driven by Five Beyond versus non-converted locations? And then any color on growth attributable to new versus existing customers on the expanding value appeal? Thank you.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yes, I don't know if I -- I don't know, Kristy, do you have those numbers on the conversions?

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

For the converted?

Joel Anderson

Analyst

I mean--

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

Look, transactions were positive in both, right?

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yes.

Kenneth Bull

Analyst

And so we're -- Philip, we're positive in both converted stores and non-converted stores. And I think you talked about the growth. I mean, we're seeing actual growth in new customers and improvements in our retained customers, too.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yes. So, look, it's obviously higher in the converted stores. And honestly, that's a good thing. I mean I just -- that was our strategy. That's what we wanted to see. And we got over 600 of them now and to see it continue like that just bodes well for the rest of them as we convert them next year and the year after.

Phillip Blee

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks.

Joel Anderson

Analyst

Yes. Thank you, Philip. Hey, thanks, everybody, for jumping on. A lot of questions certainly about shrink, but more importantly, what we are opening a record set of number of new stores. We're increasing our productivity in our stores. We're growing our brand awareness. The marketing is really starting to work. We're transforming the inventory. The focus Ken's going to put on that. It's going to create efficiencies. And we're going to make Five Below a great place to work for the associates. We hope to see you. We hope you enjoy the rest of the summer, and don't forget to get out and visit a Five Below store. Thanks for joining us, and I'll see you after Thanksgiving on our third quarter call. Have a great night, everybody.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.