Earnings Labs

Fluence Energy, Inc. (FLNC)

Q1 2025 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 11, 2025

$11.54

-6.76%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-6.71%

1 Week

-2.14%

1 Month

-26.71%

vs S&P

-20.41%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing-by. Welcome to the Fluence Energy First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there'll be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Lexington May, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Lexington May

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Fluence Energy's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. A copy of our earnings presentation, press release and supplementary metric sheet covering financial results, along with supporting statements and schedules, including reconciliations and disclosures regarding non-GAAP financial measures, are posted on the Investor Relations section of our website at fluenceenergy.com. Joining me on this morning on our call are Julian Nebreda, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ahmed Pasha, our Chief Financial Officer. During the course of this call, Fluence management may make certain forward-looking statements regarding various matters related to our business and company that are not historical facts. Such statements are based upon the current expectations and certain assumptions and are therefore, subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings for our forward-looking statements and for more information regarding certain risks and uncertainties that could impact our future results. You are cautioned to not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today. Also, please note that the company undertakes no duty to update or revise forward-looking statements for new information. This call will also reference non-GAAP measures that we view as important in assessing the performance of our business. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measure is available in our earnings materials on the company's Investor Relations website. Following our prepared comments, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with our team. During this time to give more participants an opportunity to speak on this call, please limit yourself to one initial question and one follow-up. Thank you very much. I'll now turn the call over to Julian.

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now open

Thank you, Lex. I would like to extend a warm welcome to our investors, analysts and employees who are participating in today's call. I will review our Q1 results briefly and then provide an update on our business and financial outlook. Ahmed will then go into more detail on our financial results. Beginning on Slide 4, we continue to see a very strong battery storage market with the U.S. as a cornerstone. We have carved out a solid competitive advantage with our domestic content offering, where we continue to see strong interest from customers. This has been a key driver of the growth of our backlog, which is now at a record $5.1 billion. Our diversified supply chains, particularly our U.S. Domestic content strategy allows us to mitigate the potential impacts of current geopolitical uncertainty that we expect will continue for the foreseeable future. Looking at our first quarter performance. First, we generated $187 million of revenue with a 12.5% adjusted gross margins. Revenue was significantly lower than fiscal Q1 2024 and resulting from our fiscal 2025 backend weighted plan as discussed in our prior earnings call. Second, we continue to add to our backlog with another strong quarter of more than $770 million in order intake. This propelled our backlog to a record $5.1 billion providing a high degree of visibility to future revenue growth. Third, our annual recurring revenue or ARR was $106 million, which is an increase of $6 million from the previous quarter. We're on track to achieve our $145 million ARR target by the end of the fiscal year. Finally, we ended the quarter with more than $650 million of total cash, which puts us in a strong position to continue investing in our products and delivering value to our customers. Turning to Slide 5,…

Ahmed Pasha

Analyst · Christine Cho of Barclays

Thank you, Julian, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will review our first quarter financial results and then discuss our updated outlook and liquidity for fiscal 2025. Turning to Slide 13. In the first quarter, we generated $187 million of revenue, which was a decrease of 49% from the same quarter last year. The decrease was largely anticipated and reflects the back-end weighted nature of our expected full-year revenue, which we noted on our last call. We generated $23 million of gross profit, representing gross profit margin of approximately 12.5%, this was our sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit gross profit margins. We reported negative $50 million of adjusted EBITDA, mainly due to the fact that our operating expenses are more evenly distributed across the year than our revenue. Turning to Slide 14 and our guidance for 2025. As Julian discussed, we now expect revenue of between $3.1 billion and $3.7 billion with a midpoint of $3.4 billion. This is a reduction of $600 million from the midpoint of our prior guidance, which is due mostly to the timing of three specific projects in Australia that have been delayed, but not lost. We had been expecting to sign these contracts in January such that we would recognize the associated revenue over the following nine months. However, over the past month, it became clear that the signing would be delayed until later in the year, which does not allow us enough lead time to be able to execute on these contracts and recognized revenue in the fiscal 2025. We expect to recognize revenue from these contracts in fiscal 2026. I would like to emphasize that the midpoint of our revised revenue guidance represents backlog coverage of approximately 85%, although it is disappointed to us to reduce guidance. The revised midpoint of $3.4…

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now open

Thank you, Ahmed. Turning to Slide 17. I would like to emphasize the key takeaway from this quarter's results. First, we're adjusting fiscal year 2025 guidance, primarily to reflect delays in signing a specific contracts; and secondly, due to some competitive pressures. The strong backlog covers of our revised guidance significantly derisked our year-to-go outlook. Second, the battery storage market remains robust, driven by rising demand and highlighted by the U.S. market, where we have a competitive advantage with domestic contact. Third, our U.S. supply chain puts us in an excellent position to mitigate the geopolitical volatility we are experiencing and foresee for the near future. And fourth, our strategy of rapid innovation, more specifically, our new product platform provides a technology foundation to sustain our leadership position in the competitive environment we are experiencing. In summary, even with the disappointing guidance we set today, we have confidence in the strength of our business model to guide us to success in this market. We remain dedicated to delivering the profit return our shareholders are seeking through: One, our strategy of profitable growth that provides robust top line growth with double-digit margins; Two, a successful operating track record that provides confidence in our ability to realize the margins in our backlog; Three, a scalable operating leverage, implying strong growth of adjusted EBIT on top of our top line growth; Four, continued investment in product innovation and sales capabilities to ensure our offering is competitive, and more important that customers are well served and enjoy a secure route to value for their investment; And fifth and finally, a capital-light approach that on top of the agility to adapt to a changing environment allows for robust profitability metrics. With that, I would like to open up the call for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of George Gianarikas of Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now open.

George Gianarikas

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now open

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe first, just to focus on the 2026 revenue guidance that you pointed to in your deck. You mentioned that you expect 30% plus growth there, which is the same as last quarter, despite the fact that you had some three pushouts this year in Australia. Does that mean that you've maybe lost some business or do you just decide not to update that for other reasons? Thank you.

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now open

Thanks, George. We've taken a conservative view of 2026. And what we have today and the way we present this kind of a floor or where we see we can do 30% on top of our guidance. And our idea is that as we move forward during the year, we will be able to give you more clarity on these numbers and firm them up. So, today, our best view is a 30-plus – or 30% on top of the midpoint for 2025 and I will provide more – a better view for 2026 as we move along. Today, we have like $1.2 billion here at backlog for 2026, and we need to bring some additional backlog in order to firm that number up. And we hope to and as we move forward. But we have taken up to what happened now, we have taken a more conservative view of 2026 than what we have done.

George Gianarikas

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now open

Thank you. And maybe as a follow-up, just a different topic. Do you have any comments on Moss Landing and some of the recent events there? Help us kind of work through that.

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now open

Yes. Moss Landing, we have no information, except for what we got from the press. So, we have not been to that site since 2022. We have no contract with that site. We have no service agreement with that site. So we don't think there's any liability coming out of that event. As I said, what we know is the same thing you saw in the media and in the general media. So, no. We cannot comment more than that.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs.

Brian Lee

Analyst · Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs

Good morning everyone. I'm sure you're going to get a lot of them, but I wanted to focus on the margins for a little bit. So, maybe to start off, can you talk about sort of what margins you're seeing on new bookings this quarter as well as these Australia bookings you're expecting later in the year? Like is that all going to be at the lower end of that 10% to 15% range you've targeted overall? Or are you going to be able to start seeing some margin expansion based off the new product and redesign? I'm just trying to understand like how structural and how set are these margins at the lower end of the range for a while? And then is it something you recover in 2026 or does it take longer than that?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs

Very good question. Two points, I think, that are important. First, 2026. We believe that our new product design and our strategy for 2026 will bring us back to our range. So, it will put us in the middle of that range, but these are hopefully better than that, but that's our view. Today, when we looked at the product, what it can do. So, we see this margin reduction as a temporary situation. What do we have for the year? When we looked at – two things are driving this margin point. One, a change of mix, the mix of projects change due to the delays in the Australia projects. And second, the new – our current view of the recent backlog and the backlog that we will need to enter into to support 2026, 2025 revenue is that they will come in high single digits. If you do a simple math, when you do the simple math of what we had in our backlog at 12.5% or the high single digits, it comes around this 10% to 12% that we're giving. We think this is temporary. This is something that we are addressing. It comes out of competitive pressure. We're still – we're not that far, but we clearly need to put – we are putting up a plant to get to where we need to and that's conceptual. This is a temporary situation that we will address in the, you know with our investments in technology essentially.

Brian Lee

Analyst · Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs

Okay. Fair enough. And then just a follow-up from me would be, I mean, presumably, this competitive pressure you called out Chinese peers is more acute in international markets than the U.S. because I know Julian you spend a lot of time on the call talking about all the advantages that are starting to come your way in terms of the U.S. So, is this a large function of incremental bookings coming from the international part of your pipeline? And on the U.S. side, are you seeing the same type of pressures? Or are you actually seeing any kind of margin upside because of your kind of domestic advantages? Have you started to see any of those benefits accrue to your margins and pricing, but to maybe just dissect the difference between U.S. and international sort of margin outlook?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs

On the U.S. side, first, we see a very strong position. The problem – not the problem in the U.S. The issue in the U.S. are tariffs. As we said, we mentioned the $10 million hit on margins on U.S. contracts that we expect - in contracts we’re going to be realized in 2025. So, that's where we see that lower point. The competition is mostly in international markets, mostly that significantly more strong in international markets. And that's where we have seen our margins compress. We are seeing competition all around, but the compression of margin comes mostly from international markets. However, as I said, just repeating my point, the U.S. has seen the $10 million in tariff, which is a margin, the reduction happens in the U.S. Most of our U.S., essentially all of our U.S. domestic content is in – for 2025 has already been contracted. So generally, we don't see that there will be any ability to - that we will lose some of that.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dylan Nassano of Wolfe Research.

Dylan Nassano

Analyst · Dylan Nassano of Wolfe Research

Yes. Can you just talk to your confidence level that these Australian contracts do kind of come back and get signed by the end of the year? And then if they do, is there any chance that any of that would be realized in 2025 at the time that you booked them? And then I guess just taking a step back, can you just talk about what kind of gave you the confidence initially to include them in the guidance? And what kind of changed relative to your assumptions?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Dylan Nassano of Wolfe Research

This is a very, very good point. These delays were caused, we talked about the projects in, by minor issues that my, you know being very, very transparent here, my team did not see on time. By the time we saw the delay, we realized these projects have all the major permits that should be ready. We are very much – very advanced since that we had already, you know we believe we had in our pocket. However, these minor issues delayed the projects in a way that, and that's what it is. So, we are very confident, at least two of them are essentially fully the reason should be signed. We sign, and they should not be – we should be able to - is there a probability that there might be revenue in - ‘26? Today not – I don't feel confident enough to bring it into the forecast. So, we decided to take them out of the forecast for this year because clearly – and one point that some of you had asked me many times, interconnection. None of these things is interconnect. These guys are fully – they have all those permits. The issue has been minor issues like traffic, road passing to a town that – and did not get the permits until recently. Small issues with the offtake that delayed the project and some issues with the preparing a site that were – that I will say, my team should have picked up, especially because these were big contracts. We see these things as small contracts here and there. And there are usually delays that do not affect our ability to meet our forecast. However, when we have minor issues on three big contracts derailed the 2025 plan. So, that’s what it is. So we feel very confident with all coming. And our current view is that there will be 2026 revenue. There's no probability that you may get some 2025, but today, we took it out of the forecast and decided to become - to try and continue on this, keep it [quarter clean] (ph).

Dylan Nassano

Analyst · Dylan Nassano of Wolfe Research

Okay. Thank you. That's very helpful. And then just as a quick follow-up. So, this slide on the tariff exposure is helpful, but I guess the one thing that's kind of missing in that discussion is the Section 301 tariffs that hit in 2026. Can you just kind of readdress your exposure to that 25% tariff that hits next year and kind of how you're negating that?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Dylan Nassano of Wolfe Research

We have that – that we have included in our forecast, it should not affect our numbers. I mean it affects our cost structure and stuff that we need to do, but it will not affect our ability to meet our forecast, it's already put in place.

Operator

Operator

Thank you.

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now open

Maybe a point on tariff. I can add one thing that – sorry, Dylan, is following. The problem with the – if tariff comps are announced with time, we have all the tools to manage them because this domestic content gives us that ability. And we have all the tools to manage it very effectively, like the 301s. We don't get any – the problems are the surprising stuff that comes I don't know where that people were not expecting that are more difficult, and it takes us a little longer to adapt to. So, if I think that at some point, we'll get to a normal cadence with the Trump administration and things will be announced with time, and we will be able to manage it because our domestic content strategy, it is designed for a world of protection. That's what is signed for, and it should do very, very well. So, just to give you a sense of why the 301s, we treated them very, very differently than what we treat, how we treat the tariff on the 10% China tariff, which came out solidly.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Christine Cho of Barclays.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Christine Cho of Barclays

HI. This is Tom on for Christine. So, you guys had a very large deferred revenue number of over $300 million run through your cash flow statement. The magnitude was much larger than what we've seen in the past. Could you talk about what drove that this quarter? And if there's anything notable about when we should see that reverse and booked as revenue?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Christine Cho of Barclays

I'll give Ahmed.

Ahmed Pasha

Analyst · Christine Cho of Barclays

This is Ahmed. I think that we will expect that to be reversed within next quarter or so. So, this is more just the accounting, but I think we expect that to be rolled over with the next three months.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Christine Cho of Barclays

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then I guess just one follow-up for me. Could you talk about what measures you're taking on the graphite supply and procurement front given the AD/CVD investigation? How any duties would impact your existing operations in the event that they were retroactive?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Christine Cho of Barclays

I don't think they can be retroactive by the way. They can be retroactive. Okay. So, where are we doing on this one? First thing, I think is the first point. In order to prepare for a potential duties, we are trying to accelerate some graphite into a contract. Clearly, for retroactive duties that will not apply, but if they were – we should reduce our problem, we think were to go forward. How to think about this? Generally, tariff, the sales are roughly 30% of our projects. Graphite is 10% to 15%, so roughly on a project – in a total project cost, 5% is graphite. The way we understand the [petitioners claim] [ph] is that they are asking for an application of the duties on graphite imports and on all batteries that include – and other elements that include graphite. So, what it will mean is that this will create a level playing field for both domestic content and for imported batteries. So, it will not be that domestic offerings will be more expensive than imported. If they were successful in their claim, that's what it will mean. The whole market will go up in price, and we all feel the same. From our part, what we're doing is accelerating some graphite imports, but at the end of the day, I will say that if it is – if they can go back, I don't know how far what back they can go, it will probably – that would not be sufficient. So, that's what we're doing. We believe that this will create disruptions. It will create a problem, no doubt, but it will create a problem for the whole industry. And it should not make domestic content by itself more – less competitive. The main objective of this graphite manufacturers to develop battery industry in the U.S. where they can deliver their product. So, if they destroy domestic production, they will not meet their objectives. So, I think at the end of the day, we should be able to adapt to this. However, if we come, they say that if there is a retroactive tariff, it will create some disruptions that we will let you know when it comes. I mean it's difficult today to see what it is.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley.

Andrew Percoco

Analyst · Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley

Good morning. I just wanted to come back to a question on margins. I think loud and clear that margin compression and pricing compression is really originating in some of these international markets, but I just kind of wanted to put a finer point on what you're seeing from domestic customers. You've talked a lot about strong domestic content demand. Can you confirm whether or not that's translating into maybe premium pricing and higher margins on those contracts today?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley

I mean our margins are within our range of 10% to 15%. We have not been able to go beyond that up to now. What we have seen in the U.S. is that a lot of these players are trying to sell into the U.S. ahead of these rules coming out and trying to, I don't know. So, there's a little bit of noise about that. Generally, the customers we're working with our customers who are betting on domestic content. That's not something that really affects them, but we have seen the Chinese players tying to become more active, especially on projects that are delivered during 2025 to try to [win space] [ph] in the U.S. trying to preempt trade restrictions. So... But my main point is that, I don't think that is affecting our domestic content margins, and our domestic content margins are in the 10% to 15%. And today, we haven't seen premiums that will take us out of that range.

Andrew Percoco

Analyst · Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley

Understood. Okay. That makes sense. And maybe shifting gears to the cost side of the equation for a second. As you've ramped your facility in Utah, can you just discuss, how has the cost trajectory played out maybe relative to your expectations? Is everything going as planned? Or are you may be a little bit higher in the cost per kilowatt hour than maybe expected? Just maybe give a general outlook of cost trajectory from that facility?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley

I’ll tell you, that's a very good question. I'm very pleasantly surprised, not surprised, I mean I'm very pleased with how that facility is going. And it makes a point that I don't know how – I'm not originally born in the U.S. The U.S. can compete manufacturing, staff come-on let’s get out of this idea that only Chinese can do it. This is a facility with machines made in India. Indian, and that is run by Americans, and it works very, very well. And if you go to a facility in China, you go to this, our facility is better. There's no reason why we need to think we lost the battle of production. I know that it's difficult, with your financial market, you're not into it, but when I talk to people, I don't know why, I mean, this is about we can win. And we're not even experts on this. We've been able to put in this facility very quickly and doing very, very well. I really think that, hopefully, I hope that we all get the confidence, not the entrepreneur world in the U.S. gets the confidence that we can build stuff in the U.S. at competitive prices. There's no reason why we need to think that the Chinese are any better than us in doing any of the stuff. So, but very, very good. It's doing very, very well. I'm very, very happy. And I do hope that when things get better, we'll invite you over, you can see it and see for yourself, how great these machines. These machines were not imported. They were made in India. So...

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Strouse of J.P. Morgan.

Mark Strouse

Analyst · Mark Strouse of J.P. Morgan

I want to go back to Slide 10. So, we talk about government policy and trade, there's nothing on there about the temporary permit increase in Trump's executive order. Is it safe to say that there's no impact to Fluence there or is it maybe just too early to tell?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Mark Strouse of J.P. Morgan

No, we haven't seen any impact of today, no real impact. I understand that they were all – it applied to federal lands and they were all light lifted. That's what I read earlier this week. I don't know if that's the case or not, but that's what I read because I haven't been involved directly. What I heard is that all the permitting freeze were lifted earlier this week.

Mark Strouse

Analyst · Mark Strouse of J.P. Morgan

Okay. I’ll take the rest offline. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Dendrinos of RBC Capital Markets.

Chris Dendrinos

Analyst · Chris Dendrinos of RBC Capital Markets

I wanted to ask about the new product launch. And I guess the question is, is this sort of industry-leading or is this a bit of a catch-up product? And the reason I'm asking is I'm curious if you think you're going to be able to maintain that margin profile if it's an industry-leading product and your, I guess, competition would play catch up and price down as well?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Chris Dendrinos of RBC Capital Markets

We see as an industry-leading product. It will allow us to get to the 7.5, 12.2 gigawatts of, sorry, it will get us 7 megawatts of capacity per unit, which is industry-leading 30% better than anybody else. So, we believe that people will copy us what we will and what have we done to make this. We separated the batteries from the intelligence of the unit. We're putting all the units in the ways of that product line that you see there. That allows us to go higher in terms of batteries per square meter, but it also allows to continue transporting everything in containers. So, by separating the parts that you see, the individual parts into the specific units and putting all the intelligence and balance of plant equipment in the base, we can go higher in terms of height, and we can reach a much higher density than anybody else. Using 300-amp hour cells. So, that I think, will put us in a very, very competitive position. All the other products that are close to what we're doing, our products that are using higher amp hour cells batteries. So, this will allow us to provide this with lower amp hour cell batteries, which means if we are at the higher amp hour cell battery, will be even higher than that. So, we're very, very happy with the product. We believe we are industry leader and this will allow us to give – to regain our competitive advantage. And also, this facility gives us our platform, this new product gives us a platform where we can innovate. So, we already have our product road map to ensure that this is not – it is just the beginning of a set of innovations that will keep that project, the project competitiveness as we go along and our competitors try to copy also and come with other stuff.

Ahmed Pasha

Analyst · Chris Dendrinos of RBC Capital Markets

So, I think – this is Ahmed, Chris. I think your question – as Julian mentioned, I mean, I think, the goal is to create value for our customers in return. At the same time, it's a win-win proposition that will bring us back with our targeted returns that we talked about 10% to 15%.

Chris Dendrinos

Analyst · Chris Dendrinos of RBC Capital Markets

Okay. And then maybe as just a follow-up here. I hate to hit the margin question again, but if I go back to the prior commentary, the original outlook, and I think you mentioned that you were 65% booked for the year. So, if I just do kind of the bridge on that to the new guide, it looks like the incremental margin on the unbooked portion here is pretty low to kind of almost negative. Is that...

Ahmed Pasha

Analyst · Chris Dendrinos of RBC Capital Markets

Chris. Just to, I think, step back, last time when we gave our guidance, we were seeing 10% to 15% margin. And we had 65% of our coverage for our revenue guidance of $4 billion. Fast forward, what we are seeing today is, I think since then, the contracts we have signed are roughly high single digits, I mean, 9% plus/minus. So, I think that is what we are seeing. So, net-net, that brings us at around 11% gross margin for the revised guidance. So, the impact is only on the new contracts, not the backlog that we had signed at that time, we have not seen any material change except the tariff that we talked about, which is only $10 million, and that shaves roughly 0.3%, 0.4%.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kashy Harrison of Piper Sandler.

Kashy Harrison

Analyst · Kashy Harrison of Piper Sandler

Good morning, everyone. Just two quick ones for me. So a quick clarification question. Is the margin weakness in the U.S. or is the margin weakness in international markets? I just want to make sure I fully understand that.

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Kashy Harrison of Piper Sandler

Mostly international. I mean we do have some – as you know, nondomestic offering in the U.S. but mostly, international.

Kashy Harrison

Analyst · Kashy Harrison of Piper Sandler

Okay. And then my follow-up question. So, if I just take a step back and I just think about the broader renewable space, a recurring theme is that competition against the Chinese especially when they have severe excess capacity in markets that don't have strong protectionist policies in place, it just never seems to end well. It's fantastic to hear your enthusiasm on competition, but generally speaking, they're more focused on utilization than profitability, which makes it tough. And so, as you look at markets outside the U.S. that you're competing in, are there any places you feel will have strong protectionist policies in place? And is there perhaps a thought on pulling back from some of these more competitive markets where the Chinese can play without worrying about duties and whatnot? Thank you.

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Kashy Harrison of Piper Sandler

Kashy, my first one is, I would disagree on the premise. When you look at these products, what [indiscernible]? Battery cell, which is a commodity. And the ability to make that battery cell work well. It's a combination of cooling, software, controls, delivery, that's where the value comes. You are right. The Chinese could have an ability to sell batteries at very low margins or very zero margin. But the reality is that batteries are less and less relevant in the value proposition we get. So, when we looked at our new product, we compare it against the prices that we're seeing in the Middle East, where there are zero restrictions, where we're seeing in some of the markets where we see very little restrictions, and we can get competitive through innovation by integrating our software by defining our products in a way that we can transport them better, that we can deliver a better reliability that they can be safer at a lower cost point. So, I don't disagree that was my point earlier, that we – this is a manufacturing industry. This is an industry of innovation of technology innovation. And I think that we have the technology innovation to compete, and we'll continue doing it. So, that's what I see. Clearly, as you said, there are – now going to your question. There are markets that have more restrictions. The U.S. is a market with significant restrictions to Chinese competition. Australia is a market with some restrictions to Chinese competition. Taiwan is a market that has many restrictions to Chinese competition. Then you see more open markets. Europe is in the way, and they are defining what – how they're going to manage it, but they say, it's a more open market. The Middle East is very…

Kashy Harrison

Analyst · Kashy Harrison of Piper Sandler

No. No, you answered the question. You answered all points, and I appreciate your thoughts on the market. I mean if I could just sneak one more in since I'm talking right now. So, I think in the past, you had thought of the in-house inverter as being margin accretive to the business. When you look at your current offering, do you think that this in-house inverter gives you a path to go from the 10% to 15%? And then how long do you think it will take before 100% of your shipments are using the in-house inverter?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Kashy Harrison of Piper Sandler

Yes. The in-house inverter – I mean adding the inverter into – it's not only the inverter. We're adding all the balance of plant equipment. And by adding this additional space, we're also adding edge computer to edge computing to the software, to the system, which will allow a much better performance because you don't need to put things in the cloud, [resend] (ph) and send them back, we will be able to now add artificial intelligence in the system itself. By the way we are now designing this. This is all accretive to it, the house inverter. We believe this is a product that is like our Cube. It's going to take all our sales as we move forward and we're very happy. We believe that at some point, all our sales will be under this type of architecture. It's more than the inverter, that's my point.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jordan Levy of Truist Securities.

Jordan Levy

Analyst · Jordan Levy of Truist Securities

Just to get your thoughts on the new guide, 85% covered to current backlog. I think you covered that well. I recognize that that's higher than the same time last year, but can you just talk through your thinking process there given what we saw last year in terms of project pushouts. And I know these are kind of one-off occurrences that aren't necessarily interconnection-related or anything, but maybe just talk to your confidence on the ability to deliver on that uncovered portion of the guide?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Jordan Levy of Truist Securities

Yes. No. I mean we feel very confident. Clearly, we're setting the guidance today on that number. What I will say, I mean, I know where we are today. We're kind of in the penalty box. We need to find a substantial part of this number by the next earnings call. And that will be – that's the point. We are working on it. We believe we're going to get it. And we'll see whether by the next earnings call, we would have a substantial part of this resolve and derisk for – it doesn't mean that we'll get to 100% because, as you know, we recognize some revenue as we sign contracts, but we will get to a point that you can feel comfortable that the midsize of the range is covered enough that we can get your trust back on our ability to deliver.

Jordan Levy

Analyst · Jordan Levy of Truist Securities

Thanks for that. And then just a quick follow-up on the $30 million in cost reductions and rightsizing. Is there, you know depending on market conditions, is there still more wood to chop on that front or is that sort of what you're – the level you're comfortable with on a go-forward basis?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Jordan Levy of Truist Securities

This cost reduction aligns our cost structure with our business model of half, not allowing our cost to grow more than half of our top line growth. So, if our growth is 25%, not allowing our cost to go more than to 12.5. So, that's what we're doing with this cost structure, aligning to that business case. There probably are – there are always a little opportunity here or there, but that's the objective.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vikram Bagri of Citi.

Vikram Bagri

Analyst · Vikram Bagri of Citi

Good morning, everyone. You talked about winning from the Chinese through tech and we thought tech is deflationary as well. We saw the announcement from China and EA and NDRC recently, which it seems like they might make the situation for Chinese manufacturers a little more desperate and a little more worse. I was wondering like how are you thinking about ASP this year and next year? I understand and appreciate that you should be able to get to the targeted margins and protect the margins. I was wondering like how much of ASP pressure do you anticipate we might see this year and next year?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Vikram Bagri of Citi

We still see some – as we mentioned during the call, we still see some ASP pressure going forward that the competitive environment is not there and we're working with a view of further reduction in ASPs going forward. We looked at the Chinese tender prices, which are – we get information on it. So, we kind of know. And we – I know we have had some recent tenders in the Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia, that gives us a sense of where the lower side of that range is. So, we already are expecting certain reductions going forward that we will be working on. And we have in our – that's part of our plan.

Ahmed Pasha

Analyst · Vikram Bagri of Citi

Yes. This is Ahmed. I mean, last year, since last year, we have seen roughly 35%, 40% decline in ASPs, but I think at the same time, we have seen volume pickup up north of 60%. So, I think there is a benefit in the volume pickup that helps to continue to grow our revenue, but these trends are continuing, but at the same time, we are seeing more and more volume.

Vikram Bagri

Analyst · Vikram Bagri of Citi

Got it. And then as a follow-up, I wanted to ask about the [$30 million] [ph] in cost reductions. If you can share where they're happening. And to your answer for the last question, I was wondering if this $30 million reduction speaks to the growth this year? Or you're aligning your expenses to growth longer-term. So, it's related more to growth next year. And expectation for growth outlook are changing for forward years, and that's why the reduction is happening?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Vikram Bagri of Citi

I mean, we looked at our cost structure per year, depending on our top line growth and then we look at our cost structure. Generally, what we're doing is things that we were planning to do during the year that we now won't do because of the – we don't have the revenue. As simple as that. I mean we are – I'm defending all investments in product and I'm defending all investments in sales, but the rest of the organization, we are adopting it to a company that are now selling 15% less than what we originally expected. And then for next year, we will – whatever we have the 30% top plus we just communicated to you, depending on where we end up, we will ensure that our cost structure aligns with our business models are not allowing our cost to grow more than half the rate of growth of our top line growth.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our final question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Jefferies.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst · Jefferies

Good morning, guys. Just following up here on a couple of things said. First, briefly on liquidity backdrop. Obviously, you commented about working capital here at the start of the year. I mean given the EBITDA profile, I mean, you're basically saying suggesting that the cash balance should remain relatively intact through the course of the year, Ahmed. I just want to make sure we're on the same page about how to – you said yes, right?

Ahmed Pasha

Analyst · Jefferies

Yes, Julien. Yes, I think the main reason for working capital uses the buildup in inventory. As you may have seen, we have over $300 million of inventory, and that is primarily to basically serve our demand contracts we have in place. So, net-net, during the whole year, we are not expecting the working capital use more than, I think it's totally roughly $225 million that we are forecasting for the full-year and $200 million of that is already in the Q1. So, we don't expect any material change in the forecast.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst · Jefferies

And no material build in cash flow. That was the key piece, just in terms of like where you land for the year? Or do you expect it [indiscernible]?

Ahmed Pasha

Analyst · Jefferies

I mean, for the full year, we basically will be in and around the same ballpark because we will have significant receivables in the Q4, given the revenue profile we have, but I think we expect that to be collected in the following quarters, but for the full year, we feel pretty good where we are today.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst · Jefferies

Awesome. And Julian if I can go back to the competitive pressure. I mean, obviously, 2025, 2026, you've got this running advantage versus your peers in the U.S. Admittedly, by 2027, we start to see some suggestions of international entrants into the U.S. market at various levels here. How do you think about the competitive landscape in the U.S. over time and as much of what you just described internationally of competitive pressures bearing weight here? Again, would you think that 2026 would be a relative peak versus 2027 as you see some of those entrants come in? Again, open question, obviously, you responded in part to Kashy on this, but I would love to hear your thoughts, especially as you think about your product innovation in 2027.

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Jefferies

So in terms of – we believe that over time, the U.S. market will be a domestic content market. So, most players that will compete in the market will compete with domestic offering. So, you're right. Probably – I'm surprised that we have taken them this long to get ready in my own personal view, but – so I agree with you, our view today is that they will be probably in 2026 – sorry, in 2027, where there we'll see more domestic offering and competing. Our competition, we'll have to be through technology by offering things that are better, that do better, that behave, that run better and that lasts longer. And that's the way to win. That's what I would say, the normal way to win in any industry. So that will be my view. I think the domestic content gives us a couple of years of upside of opportunity to have kind of a “safe place” but we are getting ready for a world where we compete just with all the domestic content players, and it will be a technology, the driver of success.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst · Jefferies

Right. But the margin dynamics there over time, I mean obviously, you brought down expectations here in the near term. Do you think there's a little bit more pressure and you need to offset that with technology beyond the future?

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Jefferies

I think that generally will be 10% to 15%. I have to be very clear. I don't think I have a view yet on 2027 margins. But I think that our current view when we looked at our product cost and our competitors, the 10% to 15% is something that we can safely guide to. So, that's what I would tell you. It clearly – part of this new platform, it already has a road map of improvements to ensure that – because we know our competition will not sit idle. So, we already have that as part of it. So we have investments in product development that we'll continue – need to continue to ensure that we continue to be competitive.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Analyst · Jefferies

Excellent guys. Thank you.

Julian Nebreda

Analyst · Jefferies

Thank you, Julian, and thank you, everybody, for participating on today's call. I really appreciate you participation.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Lexington May for closing remarks.

Lexington May

Analyst

Thank you for your participation on today's call. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me. We look forward to speaking with you again when we report our second quarter results. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.