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Gerdau S.A. (GGB)

Q2 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 2, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to Gerdau's conference call about the results for the second quarter of 2012. [Operator Instructions] We would like to emphasize that any forward-looking statements that might be made during this conference call related to Gerdau's business outlook, projections and financial and operating goals are mere assumptions based on management's expectations related to the future of the company. Even though Gerdau believes that its comments are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no guarantee that future events will not affect this evaluation. Here today are Mr. André Gerdau Johannpeter, Director, President and CEO; and Osvaldo Schirmer, Vice President and IR Director. With no further ado, I would like to give the floor to Mr. André Gerdau Johannpeter. Please, you may proceed. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Thank you, good afternoon, and welcome to our conference call on Gerdau's results for the second quarter of 2012. We will begin our analysis by conducting an evaluation of the world landscape of the steel market. And after that, we will talk about Gerdau's performance during the second quarter, and the outlook for the regions where we operate. After my presentation, Osvaldo Schirmer will give you more details about the financial performance of Gerdau. And after that, we will be available to take your questions. It is also important to highlight that in our presentation, we will evaluate the performance during the second quarter of 2012 and comparing it with the same period of the year before. In addition, we will present some comparative data comparing to the first quarter of 2012. For those of you who follow us on the Web, on Page 2, we refer to the world steel production. It totaled of 390 million tonnes in the second quarter of 2012 in line with the volume of the same…

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

Thank you, André, very much for your kind words, and good afternoon to all. I would like to start by our consolidated results, and then I will talk about our business operations, and finally about our capital structure. So please take Slide #9, which shows our comps in a comparative of the second quarter of 2011 in the first column and the second of '11 in the second column, and then it's the half yearly numbers, as you can see. The consolidated sales revenue in the second quarter of '12 was BRL 10 billion, BRL 965 million more than in the second quarter of 2011, that's 11% of positive variation, as you can see in the second bar of the EBITDA. The increase in the net sales is due because of the global net revenue per tonne sold in all these business operations, which is very impressive. The cost of sales in the second quarter 2012 was BRL 944 million. The third bar of the chart showing an increase of 12% vis-à-vis the second quarter of 2011. The largest cost of sales was a reflection of the higher cost for raw materials and is inclusive for [indiscernible] of the growth of the net sales, bringing about a reduction of the gross margin. Now if you look at this second quarter compared to last year's, it was very important difference. Regarding the expenses, it was general and administrative expenses, even with a slight increase of the absolute value, which is the fourth bar of the graph -- of the chart, the share regarding the net sales shows a reduction in the second quarter when compared to the second quarter of 2011 due to the greater growth of the net revenue in the period. And in the last quarter, it has been…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ivano Westin from Credit Suisse. Ivano Westin - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Congratulations for the results, particularly the Brazil operations. Would you talk a little bit, please, about your market position, the demand scenario and compared it to the United States, especially in the second half of the year? And with these price increases, which were announced for July, will this be for all clients in Brazil? And what do you expect from the government, any incentives for the rest of the year? Second question is about monetization. And can you give us guidance as when you will announce this to the market? And if there is no agreement about evaluation with possible strategic partners, do you -- will you develop the project without the participation of these strategic partners? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: André. Well, about the scenario, what we can see -- I'll talk first about Brazil. For long steels and civil construction, generally speaking, whether residential or commercial buildings, lots of good growth. We will have many -- a lot of construction for the World Cup, this is already help occurring. But in other fields, we will not have so much growth. And this is being affected by the Brazil cost and competitiveness and deindustrialization. So Brazil will develop into construction, but not so much in the industrial sector. And there might even be a slight drop according to the data which is being published. If we take -- were you asking about government incentives? The government has been taking some steps. The automobile sector has had a reduction of the IPI. The government has said that other incentives might come along. And the energy sectors might be favored, and we don't see this favorably the steel sector, the…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Rodolfo De Angele from JPMorgan. Rodolfo R. De Angele - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: André, this is Rodolfo speaking. I would like to ask you would if you could say a little bit more about the project on the Mexican mill and a little bit about the technological routes that you've chosen. Have you chosen something along the lines of -- what line can be taken? And also, as for [indiscernible]. And in the second quarter last year was [indiscernible]. But could you just elaborate on that, please? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Rodolfo, this is André. About Mexico, this is a joint venture with our local partner, 50/50, and the route is the electric furnace that sends it 10,000 tons of [indiscernible] and 700 million tons of steel. So that's the Mexican project. And now Schirmer will take over.

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

You asked whether the ruling affected the steel sector in the [indiscernible]. Did it, for us, caught or did it continue to affect the region in the second quarter? Well, at the beginning of the second quarter, we feel bad. The impact of the rain, which we'll have in the beginning of the year but we'll not actually recover our production level. It did reflect the new costs but this was not long-lasting.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Mr. Carlos de Alba from Morgan Stanley.

Carlos de Alba - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

My questions are regarding the India project. Could you tell us how much the CapEx capital was and the timing for that? And second also on the gross volumes, it seems that you are now more flexible in terms of [indiscernible] you may be going ahead, as well as the timing of those projects. So if you could prioritize for us what projects will be more [indiscernible]. I think will even in terms of go ahead or not go ahead, also in terms of timing. [Technical Difficulty]

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Carlos de Alba - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley

Sure. The question is regarding the Indian project. How much is the CapEx for a stage 2 when you're going to put there the rolling mill? [indiscernible] And second question is regarding the flexibility that you highlighted in terms of your CapEx plans. What projects would be a priority for Gerdau and where will those take place in case you need to reduce the total amount of CapEx when you first plan for the next few years?

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

First of all, I would like to ask the gentleman to repeat the question because I think the question was around few issues. One referring to our CapEx schedule and what are the priorities, and I think he wants to know a little bit more about the second stage of our CapEx in India. And I would say that vis-a-vis our CapEx program, we will stick to BRL 10.3 million, which has been scheduled for the next few years, which is 1.7 billion a year and there is a very selective evaluation schedule of our investments. Or in terms of the Açominas rolling mill or coil hot roll strip rolling mills should be concluded at the end of this year and rolling mill for 4 heavy trays will be ready by 2014. So these are the priorities. And as announced before by André, we have Mexico with structural shapes rolling mill for 70,000 tons. So these are the priorities. Now in terms of a more a specific CapEx in the second stage of the plans in India, we have to give you that number later on because we don't have that available for 300,000 tons a year, as the market already knows, and followed by investment in the rolling mill. But we can resume, we can go back to that question later on.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Renato Girdeau Antonis [ph] from Flow Cord Theater [ph].

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

The first question is concerning specialty steel figures for the second half of the year. In Brazil, how do you see the demand landscape currently? And we've heard that there will be lower production of heavy vehicles. What is your expectation in terms of the volume for Specialty Steels in Brazil in the second half of the year when compared to the first half of the year? And the second question relates to a possible expansion of your iron ore plant and logistics. I think you also said it here there are several alternatives about that. And I would just like to understand it better because I know that Gerdau has been very careful in terms of controlling all the links of this chain in terms of [indiscernible]. And logistics for iron ore and certainly that is depending on contract terms. Should we see Gerdau adopting the use of outsourced ports to ship your goods?

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, please remain on the line.

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

I do apologize, there was a problem with the connection. It was in mute and I was not aware of it. The question related to the mining process and you also asked us about the logistics system and I was saying that logistics accounts for road transportation. Gerdau is already negotiating things with MRF Logistics. We anticipated to them what is the expected volume and this is absolutely under control. The second part of this issue refers to the port. In our project, we already contemplated the construction of a port. We already received a license for that construction and there's also the alternative to use existing port facilities. So we are working with these 2 alternatives. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: It's André now. The question was about Brazil and the outlook for the country. I would like to begin by referring to civil construction, which is a segment but still presents increasing demand. In the civil construction industry, we are still building lot of infrastructure projects, highways and ports, and we see some DPT in the port authority area. All of the stadium for the soccer cup are being built and rebuilt. So in general, the landscape is very positive and it's a landscape of growth. So commercial construction, and mine construction is still growing as well. Looking to the inventory side, things are not so good, especially in terms of imports and machinery. The competitive environment is increasing so growth should be 0 or close to 0. In terms of vehicles, what are we seeing more particularly? There was a moving trend of trucks because of Euro 5. The industry experienced a significant decrease but we see some recovery coming for the second half of next year and we will see the pickup of sales of trucks. Inputs, there was a reduction in consumption, increases in inventories in the third quarter, and the government came up with some tax incentives and we are now experiencing the results. July experienced one of the best sales of light vehicles and this will certainly help the industry to clear their inventory and according to future projections, sales of vehicle should grow still by 4% not only due to a government incentive but also economic roads and increases in family household or household income. There was a reduction in the projections for GDP. Once we incurred 3, now 1.9. But depending on the industry, will we be able to see different growth levels and this is the case of the construction and steel.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Leonardo Correa from Barclays.

Leonardo Correa - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

The first question has to do with costs. Could you quantify or at least give us an idea of the price of scrap? We once seen scrap prices drop, for example, in the United States and here in Brazil, there were some signs saying that the price of scarp dropped in the last 3 weeks. So I'd like to know if you have felt this as well. And it would be interesting if you could do that as well, first question. Second, the investment in Açominas in the hot rolling mill. Could you elaborate on this investment and maybe somebody could tell us what the cost of transformation is. The mix of the company will obviously improve in the next few months and also through 2013. So maybe you could tell us what will improve or give us a parameter to transformation costs, that would be interesting. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: This is André speaking. Regarding scrap, ever since the beginning of the year, there has been a tendency to a reduction of the price of scrap in the global market and also of coal and of ore and this is in Europe and reflects in the United States, largest exporter in the world. And this includes its other markets. However, what we do see is -- and we will see in the second half of the year. There might not be a rebound. There might be an increase for these prices in some markets because mostly this is due to some scrap volume and the buying of the scrap. And apparently, it has reached a price where probably there will be a recovery now in August, and so coming up again. What is more important for us is to keep the spreads, not telling whether the scrap going up or down but to maintain our spreads in North America, we have managed to do that, and that's important. And also for other markets. And you have asked about hot rolling mills and that cost and CapEx. In CapEx we have already published it several times. The project of the rolling mill and the heavy plate rolling mill is BRL 2.4 billion. You asked about the operating cost of the -- transformation cost. But generally, we don't talk about our cost, but could tell you that our equipment makes us very confident that it's extremely competitive and it is a very modern technology so our indicators show that it will be competitive in this section.

Leonardo Correa - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

Could you tell us, André, what the current level of the scrap is and in the United States as well? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: About 450, 460 level.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Mr. Jon Brandt from HSBC.

Jonathan L. Brandt - HSBC, Research Division

Analyst · HSBC

Two questions. First is related to the previous question just on the spreads. Would the expectation that scrap prices in the U.S. are set to rise, as you said, in the second half. With demand being a little bit weaker than what you would have expected in the second quarter. Do you think demand will rebound sufficiently enough for you to increase your volumes and keep those spreads and see some margin expansion in the third and fourth quarter? Or do you continue to see margin pressure, maybe around the 9%, 10% level for the rest of the year. And secondly you mentioned in the press release that you're still looking to take advantage of opportunities that emerge in the marketplace. I read that to mean M&A, is there anything at the moment that seems interesting to you? And I'm thinking specifically about CSA in Brazil or Sparrows Point in the U.S. Those are my 2 questions. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Well to answer the question about scrap, whether there'll be a rise or not in the third quarter, and if this happens, what will happen to the margins. We have seen sometimes that it might go up. But very difficult to be specific to know what the prices of scrap will do. But as the world market has been dropping in the last few months and many buyers have stopped or reduced their inventories. There's a possibility of a rebound of the prices as we could use as come back to purchase. But this is speculation in the market and we can -- have no certainty. The important thing for us is to keep our margins. So we will maintain our margin for the second half of the year in general. And then there was a second question which Schirmer will answer.

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

Whether we group all the M&As, we will be interested in [indiscernible]. This question [indiscernible] where we still talk about market opportunities. So CSA [indiscernible] company that I've previously mentioned. And we will not just -- none of these 2 projects are official, neither [indiscernible] own CFC. And finally, you talked about market opportunities to direct our investment and prioritize our next investments to take the best opportunities in the market.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Thiago Lofiego from Merrill Lynch.

Thiago Lofiego - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

My question has to deal with CapEx. And could you give us an idea of how much you have spent regarding this project? And you talked about BRL 2.2 billion from its IC, and what is your expectation in terms of plans for the next few years? Will you -- and what about the sales mix for the project, will it be for Mexico there 1 of the distributors, or will it probably be for your local export? That's my first question. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: The BRL 2.4 billion of CapEx total, we are not breaking down this number in equipment. But the spreads also are important. It's difficult to separate this number. The projects we will be concluding are hot running mills, and [indiscernible]. Heavy plate is being booked. It's difficult to estimate. We don't have the exact number here, but about 60% have already been spent. But we can get back to you on that. About the mix of the project system, it's important to understand. We also have [indiscernible] particularly on the first part of the year. And the [indiscernible] reached its peak in the second year. We will focus on the domestic market and domestic according to opportunities and further on, in the second year we're on, we will focus more on the domestic market as soon as we have new gaps and supplying the domestic market. However, in our project, there will be good export percentage because we have markets in Latin America. We have the opportunity to sell also outside Brazil. So first of all, export to the domestic market is [indiscernible] to export to Latin American countries. We have [indiscernible] which resulted in 2.4 billion tons of ore yes, more on ore.

Jonathan L. Brandt - HSBC, Research Division

Analyst · Merrill Lynch

My second question complements the first one on when I asked a question about mining. Do you have the timing regarding the boundary markets [indiscernible] in the next 3 to 6 months? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: [indiscernible] I will answer it. We are in the second phase of due diligence. Now it's been present growth too, et cetera. [indiscernible] of potential investors, which is important for the United States and Europe others in Brazil. There you have some [indiscernible]. This is difficult to certify. To date, each will be [indiscernible]. [indiscernible] schedule with the knowledge that we are within our schedule. It is very difficult to specify the date of [indiscernible].

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Marcos Assumpção from Itau BBA. Marcos Assumpção - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: I have 2 questions. The first related to the pricing landscape in 2013 in the domestic market. Could you tell me something about new price increases early next year due to the end of the government incentive to Chile's exports and whether you could draw a parallel between longs and flat steels, which market vis-a-vis there will be further possibility to increase prices? And the second question relates to the Brazilian operation. It was clearly -- it is clear to me that you had a recovery in your margins and there should be further recoveries when certainly demand in Mexico of those takes up. Could you please give me your outlook for margins in the long run for the long market? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: It's André. In terms of pricing and forecast, considering that we have a mix of different products so on and so forth. I mean there's expectation according to Resolution 72 that terminates all of the incentives for the ports, must help in the competitive landscape of the industry but it also depends on the Mexican market, foreign exchange. There are many aspects that influence pricing not, only that resolution. That's why at the moment it's very difficult to do any kind of forecast and I am mostly referring to longs. Well, flat steel is still too early to say. We will start rolling at the end of the year, so it's still too soon to talk about flat steel. And the second question, I will give it to Schirmer.

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

Marcos, your question about the pricing landscape and margin recovery in 2013 or even through the end of this year. Considering EBITDA margins, et cetera, we do not give out guidance, as you well know. We just talk about what will we produce. We are working very hard to decrease and optimize our working capital. As we mentioned before, we have growing volumes of suppliers of iron ore in this [indiscernible] to our efficiency performance. We're self-sufficient. We are also working hard to replace coal export, bringing more coal from Colombia to Acominas. We always invested except for that particular year 2010. There is a guideline from the company that is very clear to management that we must improve costs and at the same time improve efficiency. It's difficult to anticipate any pricing scenario but whatever we can do internally, we will do. And we believe that we will continue in that effort to increase margins but I do not want to say anything about on that matter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Humberto Mairal [ph], he's from Goldman Sachs.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Now going to my question. Most of my questions were previously answered but in terms of Cosigua, I think -- I don't know whether I understood it quite well, whether you're -- whether it's a position of Cosigua and how is that project moving along and what about the start up in CapEx. The other thing is whether you could -- I know that you don't give 5-year CapEx, but I think you already have a budget for next year, so what will be the annual CapEx and when do you expect the rolling mills to operate? Would it be by the end of 2013, early 2014? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: This is André. Okay, let me answer the first part of your question. CapEx, your first 2 priorities that maybe we didn't mention Cosigua. Our CapEx plan is maintained and is in the way. Deuter is adding value for it is Cosigua's rolling mill in real. The other 1 for Specialty Steel in São Paulo, the flat rolling mills. So with the use of due capacity to add value and start rolling. So when we say that we will be more selective in terms of where we will use investments, so what we will use it for these projects. And these are the projects that will get our focus. In terms of the annual CapEx, we do not disclose these numbers but maybe you can take the 5-year figure and divide it in 5 years. So I think it's BRL 1 billion a year. When there is more in Açominas, it goes up a little less in Açominas, it goes down. No, we have the slight rolling mills in Açominas. And for the second part of the question, Schirmer will answer that.

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

In fact, the question referred to the utilization of the coil hot rolled strip rolling mill and whether it reaches 100%. You know that there is a around a process, a learning curve that has to be followed and we do believe that in the first year, maybe 50% to 60% of the rolling capacity of that rolling mill will be the case going towards 100% in a year or 1.5 years. I think this is our internal expectation.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

On the second question related to government incentives and the decreasing your payroll, I know that Gerdau is working in discussing that issue with the government. Could you please mention what impacted is expected in terms of the government measures?

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

It's difficult to specify, but in general, maybe I am now speaking as a representative of the entire steel industry. We are working with the government towards reducing the tax burden so that we could be more competitive. And whenever we talk about lowering the tax burden or lowering the impact of the tax burden on the payroll, half of the cost comes from taxes. These are issues that the entire steel industry is arguing or debating it with the government. We are trying to lower the tax burden because once tax burden is lower, we could be more competitive. And then we will be able to invest more in logistics, infrastructure, interest rates are still very high in Brazil and exchange rate, despite the fact that it's around 2 something in our view, it's relatively low. It could be higher than that to help the industry to be more competitive. So we are working towards lowering the tax burden. Because at the end what we want is to boost demand for steel in Brazil because it is still very low when compared to the consumption of other countries, which should be around 400,000 kilograms.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Raphael Biderman from Bradesco BBI. Raphael Biderman Camargo - Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários, Research Division: Now I have a question about the LPT rolling mill and whether when it starts to operate, you will continue to export to [indiscernible] finished. Could you give me a guidance about the percentage of products or whether you will export than the internal markets and what are the export of BQ in the beginning, in the first few years? And if you mentioned a technical characteristic that maybe you could bring any commercial advantage?

Unknown Executive

Analyst · Bradesco BBI

He's referring to BBC.

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

Now in terms of your very specific question about the BQ rolling mills and how much we will be able to post it in the domestic market and how much we will have to export, this is -- I must say that we will still have products to be exported as semi finished. We are talking about a 800,000 ton-a-year rolling mill on year 1. There will not be a ramp-up, there will be a learning rolling curve skew in profits maybe in the first year. We may reach 50% of output. We have a very good distribution capacity in Brazil, which is assuring that we will place part of the production in the domestic market and part of the throughput in the foreign market. As we get more productivity, we'll try to increase the output to the domestic market in terms of the steel volume that will still be geared towards the other rolling mills. We will still have to export semi-finished products. In terms of volume, it's difficult to say anything at the moment. We have an idea of how much at what level we want to operate in. We will operate with a few markets, the surplus of steel and semi-finished. But when you have your heavy plate, you will not have semi-finished anymore, right? Well there will still be some materials. There will still be some steel left that would be sold one way or another.

Operator

Operator

Due to our time, we will now close our Q&A session. I would like to ask Mr. André Gerdau Johannpeter to make his final remarks. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: I would like to thank you all for your attention and your interest, to thank all the analysts and all who tuned in, and we hope to meet you at the next quarter call. And thank you for all those who wished Schirmer good wishes.

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

Thank you very much for your participation and we with Investor Relations are always available to answer your questions and complement your questions if we were not clear. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: And Schirmer would still be with us at the next call in the 1st of November and I would like to invite you all for the third quarter results. Thank you very much and thank you for tuning in.

Operator

Operator

Gerdau's call is now completed. Thank you very much for your participation and have a good afternoon.