Earnings Labs

Gerdau S.A. (GGB)

Q3 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 1, 2012

$4.47

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-0.43%

1 Week

+0.57%

1 Month

-5.30%

vs S&P

-4.19%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to Gerdau's Conference Call to present the results of the third quarter of 2012. [Operator Instructions] We would like to clarify that forward-looking statements that might be made during this call regarding the business outlook for Gerdau's projections and operating and financial targets are estimates based on the company's management expectations regarding the future of the company. Although Gerdau believes that these remarks are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no guarantee that future events will not affect this evaluation. Today with us, we have Mr. André Johannpeter, CEO and Chairman; and Osvaldo Schirmer, Vice President and Investor Relations Officer. Now I would like to give the floor to Mr. André Johannpeter. Mr. Johannpeter, you have the floor. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our conference call for the results of 3Q 2012. Before I start talking about our operating and financial performance in Q3, I would like to share with you our new mining strategy. We made a decision of terminating the process to seek for strategic partner for our mining project at the moment. This decision was caused by the upward review of iron ore discovery and the fact that the proposal did not fulfill the expectations of the company. The project, presenting to the potential investors contemplated resources of 2.9 billion tons of iron ore where, currently, according to the construction [ph] in study that indicated a volume of 6.3 billion tons of iron grade, which was up by 40%. Thus, Gerdau reinstated its commitment with the mining project, implementing a investment plan without compromising the necessary resources in the sustainability of the steel business. Our new investments involved BRL 500 million for an increase in installed capacity of mining by 11.5 million tons to 18 million tons by…

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

Thank you, very much André. Before getting into the specific financial analysis. I would like to thank André for his very kind words about my years with the company. André, thank you very much. I'm touched. Now I would like to invite you to look at Slide #10 where we talk about the consolidated net sales and afterwards, about each one of our business, our BOs. On Page 10, I would like to start by saying that the consolidated net sales in Q3 reached BRL 9.8 billion, as André mentioned, BRL 852 million more than Q3 2011, as you can see on the second bar of this chart on the lower part of the slide. And the increase in net revenue is due to the increase in the net revenue per tonne sold in all our business operations since we were able to recover prices. The cost of sales increased by BRL 993 million in Q3. As you can see the third bar on the chart, which represents a 13% increase year-on-year. The higher cost of sales, which was said by André, was driven mainly by the higher cost of raw materials. And these increases exceeded the growth in our net revenue per tonne sold, bringing about the reduction in our gross margin in all business operations, except the nature of Brazil business operation. About our SG&A, there was an increase in the absolute value by BRL 39 million, as you can see on the fourth bar of the chart. However, the participation vis-à-vis the net revenue, fortunately, went down from 7% to 3% due to the higher growth in our net revenue. EBITDA in Q3 reached BRL 1 billion with a 15% reduction year-on-year, and the comparison on our margins will also be consolidated. Margin came from 14% in…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mr. Renato Antunes from Barclays.

Renato Antunes - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

I would like to know about your compensation program because you have announced that you are no longer looking for a partner. Could you talk us about cost and production and could you give us an estimate for the potential CapEx for your project? It would be very interesting, to help us, so that we may evaluate this project better. And the second question has to do with the Brazil deal. We saw in this quarter volume dropping in the domestic market of long steel vis-à-vis the second quarter of 2011. I would like to hear from you if you have felt in this quarter a drop in the volumes because of the anticipation of account in the last quarter and if this should go back to normal in the next few quarters.

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

This is Schirmer and André will answer the other part of your question. I will answer the part related to the mining project. As we informed the market, when we started this, we had 2.9 billion tons in resources and this went up to over 6 billion, which is a very major growth over the year and as you said, yourself, we announced that we will be carrying out the project all by ourselves. We are no longer looking for partners. About it is what I can tell you, and this is something that the market already knows that our mines are very differentiated with a high content of iron, over 43% iron content, and this is a very convenient quality as far as CapEx is concerned and very rich as well in hematite. What we are not disclosing to the market yet is the percentage of the quantity of each one of the mines because this is premature, but I can guarantee to you that these are mines of excellent quality. And our current experience supplying to Açominas itself -- it is being done at very competitive prices and if you look at the other suppliers in the domestic market. And this is encouraging because we are anticipating very encouraging for us is for exports. We have already started exporting and it will grow our exports over the years and this was the reason for our material information. We will have exportable surplus [ph] end of 2013 and increasingly so. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: So the second question about the Brazilian market and volumes. If we look year-on-year, the domestic market is still 5% above the numbers of last year and Schirmer was referring to the second and third quarters where there was a decline of 6% year-on-year, on a quarterly basis, 3%. What we noted is that there was a slowdown in the construction industry in Q3 and a little bit on Q2, but this is more related to [indiscernible] construction and real estate construction. But we understand that growth will be resumed next year. But the good news in the Brazilian market refers to infrastructure. We are participating in large construction projects, projects related to the World Cup and infrastructure is part of that and there are also other projects for the Olympic Games in 2016. But there are other infrastructure projects like HPP [ph], roads, railroads. There was also an announcement of a PPP, public and private projects, so this drop in volumes, when we look at it more closely, we will -- we know that, in the future, the growth will be resumed because certainly, all of these new infrastructure projects will be run in our models, too.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes is from Credit Suisse.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

I would like to mention 3 points. One related to the short run, whether you could say something about pricing in your Brazil and U.S. units and whether you believe that new list of 100 products, where there's an increase of imports that will also include rebars and now referring to the midrange -- the midterm, we have no expectation of new projects with long steel from CSM [indiscernible] and it's expected that there will be some changes in the composition of the domestic market. So could you please elaborate a little bit about the margins for the Brazil unit in the next few years? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Referring to pricing, in the short run, we do not have any forecasts about pricing because the world's landscape is very volatile. So it's difficult to make any evaluation. But now referring to another tech entry in the new project lists and our steel Brazil division is working towards that, but we do not -- we didn't hear any confirmation about the listings. Some steel projects were included on the list, but I believe we haven't seen anything more concrete in terms of a second list. Now, about new projects, what we have here are some names like the ones that you mentioned. These were just announcements, but we do not have anything concrete or absolutely confirmed. But as the market is growing, if there are new entrants, the margins will certainly be able to absorb that. And this competition will increase, but what will happen to the margin is something difficult to anticipate. Well, the winners will be those that can serve the clients better and can be faster.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Rodrigo Barros from Deutsche Bank.

Rodrigo Barros - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

I have 2 questions. One is for Schirmer. I mean, it's the last time I have an opportunity to ask you anything, so I will address you first. Well, whether you will maintain the investment grade in the debt [ph] because you have mining and the expansion in the [indiscernible] in the South. So I would like to know whether you will maintain your investment grade at Gerdau. And the other question has to do with port access for midsize assets, so what kind of announcement you will be giving and when will that be heard?

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

There is no doubt that the investment grade by the 3 agencies is something very hard to achieve. So it stems from the ongoing work that we do and that they do as well, following us and this is something that I wouldn't like to lose as far as we are concerned. And as far as our internal efforts and our strategies, this is something to be maintained. We cannot say anything about then. Regarding the port access, André was reasonably clear in his speech. We continue to study the possibility of going into port and there are alternatives in the market and at least, in the initial years of our activity is mining operators and exports. And unfortunately, I cannot see at what stage we are, in which stage we are now. We are dealing with all the possible alternatives, that's all I can say so far.

Operator

Operator

Mr. Leonardo Correa from Barclays.

Leonardo Correa - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

About the ramp up and the estimated -- and can you talk about the commercial strategies? How much will you be selling if there's new capacity in 2013 and if commercially, you would be willing to have lower than the market prices? And the second question has to do with Latin America, the Latin America deals. The previous quarter had quite a big pressure on the results. I would like to know your view about the profitability and perspective for Latin America and from which regions and which ones are playing against you and if you would contemplate divesting some non-core assets or those who are underperforming. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Okay. I will start with the rolling mills. The coil hot rolled strips rolling mill; 107,000 -- 770,000 tons, then there are 800,000 tons that, in the first quarter of the coming year, I mean, production will not be commercial, but as of the end of the first quarter of next year, we will start commercial production. So I think we will see something like 300,000, 400,000 tons, pretty much around these figures. We are -- we have already contacted the market. We have some perspective customers. Gerdau -- Comercial Gerdau is one of our customers, but we have to contact other customers in the market, even -- because this coil hot rolled strip rolling mills, I mean, strip is a very demanding market, so we cannot practice lower prices but once again, considering the fact that we will gradually increase the volume and that, paired with the growth of the Brazilian market, we will certainly be very competitive in this market, willing to gain more customers. Schirmer?

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

I think the first part of your question refers to our business in Latin America, and why we experienced a drop in margins. Latin America is a very curious and peculiar market and I'm sure you've been following that in relation to other companies. Brazil is in a geographic area where countries are very open to the entry of other -- of new projects and import tariffs are very low, almost 0. In this quarter, there were some non-recurring events that impacted some of our operations like that of Colombia and Peru. We had some production stops and we were doing market-to-market spot in some of the projects there were sitting idle. And I think during my presentation, I said that if we were to exclude the analysis, these non-recurring events in this geography, the margin will be around 3% to 3.5%, which is bad but it will still be productive. The curious fact is that these are countries where the growth outlook is very promising. Their estimated growth of GDP is around 5%, 5.5%, that's why I would like to say that we cannot afford to just invest in any of those Latin American countries. We do believe that we have the possibility of moving along with these projects because there is a very good outlook of growth. Argentina, despite all of the difficulty, still [indiscernible]. China is in a stable market, so we had to write off one of our old units, but we are still putting our trust in Latin America.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Thiago Lofiego from Bank of America.

Thiago Lofiego - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America

I have a few questions. First, whether you could say a few words about Specialty Steel and elaborate on Brazil and the United States. In Brazil, should we expect a better production due to the increase in the production of trucks or heavy vehicles? And the second question refers to the partnership which was canceled. What was the main limiting factor in the negotiations? Was it related to the quality of the ore, logistics? What is the most significant logistics bottleneck of the project, the iron ore project? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Thiago, this is André. I'll talk first about specialty steel and then I've give the floor to Schirmer. Speaking about Brazil, certainly, Brazil was heavily impacted by the 27% drop in the production of trucks because they use more steel when compared to light vehicles. And in terms of the recovery, it was going well because there are some finds [ph] and production was anticipated, some purchases were anticipated. There's also the issue of the supply network. But once again, we believe that next year, this segment should resume growth. Specialty Steel growth is not so significant, but next year, certainly, we will resume growth in this market. So [indiscernible] steel was heavily impacted this quarter, which is really because of the issues related to the production of heavy vehicles, but we expect a recovery in this industry, both coming from heavy and light vehicles. In the United States, growth has been very good, 6% this year and the outlook for next year is that growth will continue. We are making investments in our Specialty Steel plants in North America just in keeping with the growing demand. We also work with new parts -- spare parts companies. There are new OEMs in the U.S.: cost of energy, productivity and the exchange rate is also visible. So in the automobile industry in the U.S., the recovery has been significant and it should continue next year.

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

Your question has to deal with our mining project, with our decision to stop looking for a partner and you asked whether it has to do with quality of our products or the logistics and I would like to tell you that it was a decision made by the company based on the realizations. We have 2.9 billion tons available [ph] now to the market if it were through the working debt [ph] when we started to look for a partner. And over the years, I've said it pointed to growing the volume of resources, grew extensively and over 6 billion. This is what we have to do and it is true that is very difficult to work with this kind of treaty [ph] where the interested parties, we had some people who made the purchase once [ph], but we were not satisfied with the timing that they proposed regarding disbursements, et cetera, and we reached a conclusion that the best thing that we could do for the company would be to develop the project ourselves. But it had nothing to do whatsoever with quality or logistics. It was an internal decision about how to make our asset more profitable.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Marcos Assumpcao from Itau BBA. Marcos Assumpção - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: First, I would like to thank the work done by Schirmer during the -- all these last few years and wish him a lot of luck in the new challenge that he will be taking and more [indiscernible] that he will be participating in and I would like to ask the imports of [indiscernible] in 2013. André, could you say what we are -- you are expecting after the recent measures by the government? It includes an imports tax for some projects for the [indiscernible]. What do you expect for the apparent consumption for 2013 to double this year and also about the scrap market in Brazil? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: We see an increasing scrap export in Brazil still coming from a very low base, but growing very steeply. Marcos Assumpção - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: So do you see this as a risk and a growing concern for Gerdau? Do you think will be a cap for this kind of export because of the fragmentation of the scrap market in Brazil? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Marcos, about imports, this year, it's proved vis-à-vis last year and part of that is attributed to the position [ph] [indiscernible] that will be enforced next year. So maybe people are making early purchases and the penetration is around 9% to 11% for long steel and we believe it will be maybe even lower than this level for next year, which is the figure we are working with, which is higher than the 3%, 4% historical level, that it's not 15% or 16% or 18% that we're trying to pass. This is the figures that we'll work with for next year, 9%, 10% or 11% import and get the market growing and domestic consumption, with part of that being imported. What was your other question? Marcos Assumpção - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: About the scrap market in Brazil, if you see a risk of scrap exports as being of a higher concern than it is for this year.

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

In our sector of long steel, in iron [indiscernible] As I said before, there is a potential new risk [indiscernible] and we are working with the government to see if we can have business for new startups [ph] and this is being negotiated, so there is nothing confirmed in this regard. Regarding the scrap market, first of all, I would like to thank you very much for your kind remarks about my work in the company. Thank you. Now talking about the scrap market. Is it true that the market has been having some attempts, so to say, to export scrap, taking advantage of some situations in the market in a different way than it was before with the entire country and it is very difficult to forecast whether there is a task as you asked and what the companies have to do and what Gerdau is doing is do more of what we were doing already, having a very pulverized base of suppliers, keeping our tradition of scrap suppliers in the business, so that they do not change and very scattered. We are truly the largest scrap buyers in Brazil from the far north to the far south of the country and in very broad manner, as we have always done, so we will continue to do more of the same. You were asking whether this is going to grow or stabilize. Well, I think the market will be defining that, but what we're doing is and we will continue doing this.

Operator

Operator

Renato Antunes from Barclays.

Renato Antunes - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays

As you're no longer looking for a partner for your ore project, could you talk about the effect of that on the leverage of the company? André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Because you will not count on both projects, we feel it is now. For those who follow Gerdau for many years, I see -- I understand that you all know that we never give more of what we can do. Still, this is our decision from those with zero knowledge of our company and of course, our debt equity ratio has to be at certain levels that are accepted by the company. And when we said that we will be doing this all by ourselves, the mining project -- first of all, let me clarify, our leverage today, if you look at our total debt versus our total capital, it is very low. So there is no concern regarding leverage. However, we are always pay attention to everything and as it continues, [indiscernible] investment, they measured the cash -- debt-cash ratio and it is not a mining project that will make us worried from the fact. So we do have liquidity, we do have cash generation with our activities and the cash generation from mining is what will allow us to take this business ahead and we're not going to risk our liquidity and we're not going to increase our leverage.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Now we are closing the Q&A session. And I would like to give the floor back to Mr. André Johannpeter for his closing remarks. André Bier Gerdau Johannpeter: Thank you very much for your interest and for following us during all these years and especially...

Osvaldo Burgos Schirmer

Management

This is Schirmer. I would like to thank you very much for all the support that you have been giving us and certainly, we expect to see you again next quarter. Thank you very much for your questions, for your interest and our Investor Relations Department will be available to you at all times in case you wish to ask any additional questions and I would like to invite you all to join us on February 21, 2013, for our fourth quarter of 2012 earnings conference call. Thank you very much. Have a very good day.

Operator

Operator

Right now, this conference call is closed. We thank you very much for your participation and wish you all a very good afternoon.