Laurence G. Sellyn
Analyst · GMP Securities
Good morning. As Sophie said, this morning we announced our third quarter results, which were in line with our guidance, and we reiterated our guidance for the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year. Our Q3 results and Q4 guidance both reflect the second half recovery in our earnings, which we had projected at the beginning of the fiscal year. This sequential improvement in results in successive quarters is largely due to the benefit of increasingly lower cotton costs, which, in the fourth quarter, will be in better alignment with selling prices. In addition, our results in fiscal 2012 reflect the impact of our ongoing initiatives to drive the sales growth and profitability of the company, including the actions taken to improve the margins and branded product mix of our Branded Apparel segment, continuing top line organic growth in our Printwear business and the positive earnings impact of the acquisitions of Gold Toe and Anvil, which will provide further accretion as we continue to implement our integration plans and realize the projected acquisition synergies. Adjusted EPS in the third quarter was $0.66 on sales of $600 million compared to $0.76 in the third quarter of last year. Cotton costs and cost of goods sold were essentially the same as the third quarter fiscal 2011 when cotton costs were increasing. The reduction in EPS is due to lower printwear selling prices, which were reduced in the first quarter of fiscal 2012, and textile manufacturing inefficiencies due to the transition from Rio Nance I to Rio Nance V. In the second half of the fiscal year, we are consuming inventory, which was produced as Rio Nance I was being ramped down and Rio Nance V was at the initial phase of its ramp-up. In addition, manufacturing costs included in our EPS of $0.66 in the third quarter include the previously announced $0.03 per share charge to write off obsolete equipment at Rio Nance I. Manufacturing efficiencies were also negatively impacted by higher electricity, labor and transportation costs. These 2 factors were partially offset by the positive impact of higher Printwear sales volumes, higher margins in Branded Apparel and $0.03 per share accretion in the quarter from the acquisition of Anvil. The volume growth in Printwear in the third quarter was due to higher market share in the U.S. distributor channel, a 4.3% increase in screenprinter demand from distributors and 35% growth in international unit sales volumes. Industry demand for Printwear is continuing to recover well. In addition, market share for the Gildan brand in the third quarter was 65% versus 63% in the second quarter of fiscal 2012 and 61% in the third quarter of fiscal 2011 when we were capacity constrained and had suboptimal inventory levels to service distributor replenishment demand. Our combined market share, including the Anvil brand, was 71.5% for the third quarter. We have decided that we will no longer provide support for the CREST report, which provides detailed monthly data on U.S. distributor sales to screenprinters. Although this report provided some good information for Gildan management, including data which allows us to separate sales by our distributors between growth and screenprinter demand and changes in market share, the report includes too much Gildan information, which is confidential and competitively sensitive. Our Branded Apparel division generated operating income of $14.2 million in the third quarter compared to $2.1 million in the third quarter of last year. The improvement in segment operating results is due primarily to our strategy to exit from unprofitable private label programs and replace these programs with higher-volume branded programs together with improved sock manufacturing efficiency and higher net selling prices in the fourth quarter of last year. Branded Apparel results in the third quarter also include the impact of the acquisition of Anvil. As a reminder, Anvil's wholesale printwear business is being integrated into Gildan's Printwear segment while its business supplying consumer brands is being reported and managed as part of Branded Apparel. Excluding the impact of Anvil, sales of Branded Apparel were up by 6.5% compared to the third quarter of last year. We have reconfirmed our sales and EPS guidance for the fourth quarter and the full year. We are projecting adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter of close to $0.80 per share on sales of approximately 6 -- $560 million. Full year EPS is projected to be approximately $1.30 per share on sales of approximately $1.95 billion. Our guidance assumes 4% growth in U.S. screenprinter demand in the fourth quarter and combined market share in the U.S. distributor channel for the Gildan and Anvil brands of approximately 71.5%. These assumptions reflect the continuation of the same performance as the third quarter. We are also assuming no significant change in pricing from the third quarter. Our sales performance in the month of July is in line with our projected growth for the fourth quarter, and we believe that inventories in the distributor channel continue to be in good balance. Sales for Branded Apparel in the fourth quarter are projected to be in excess of 30% higher than the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 due to new Gildan branded programs and back-to-school placements and the impact of Anvil, combined with more favorable product mix and higher selling prices. Excluding Anvil, Branded Apparel sales are projected to be up approximately 15% from the fourth quarter of last year. Our focus on Branded Apparel during fiscal 2012 has been primarily in improving the margins and profitability of this division. We are continuing to pursue further profit enhancements including the cost synergies from the integration of Gold Toe, and we'll continue to pursue new retail branded programs to drive unit sales growth as we bring on new production capacity. Also, we have announced 2 new initiatives today, which extend and expand brand licenses included in the acquisition of Gold Toe. We have announced a further expansion of our U.S. sock license with Under Armour. We believe we have opportunities to build further on our relationship with underwear. We have also announced a new brand license to distribute activewear for the New Balance brand in the printwear market, building on our existing sock licensing relationship with New Balance. Cotton costs and cost of sales in the fourth quarter will be lower than the third quarter and significantly lower than the fourth quarter of last year. The benefit of the lower cotton cost is assumed to be partially offset by inflation in labor, electricity, transportation and other cost inputs. The ramp-up of our Rio Nance V is progressing well and the facility is on track to become our lowest-cost operation, although we will continue throughout the fourth quarter to consume inventories produced during the earlier stage of the ramp-up. The installation of manufacturing equipment is expected to be complete by the end of the fourth quarter, and the facility is expected to achieve full cost efficiency by the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2013. We have began the refurbishment of Rio Nance I, and the capacity from Rio Nance I will begin to ramp up again in the second half of fiscal 2013. The Honduras biomass facility is now fully operational and will significantly reduce our cost of bunkered sea oil at Honduras, which have increased by approximately 40% over the past 2 years since we made the decision to invest in this facility. We are progressing well with the expansion of our Bangladesh facility and evaluating plans for further expansion of our Asian manufacturing hub to support our projected sales growth in Asia and Europe. We generated free cash flow of $142.4 million in the third quarter, which was used to finance the acquisition of Anvil and reduce the utilization of our bank credit facility as well as to pay the quarterly dividend. We are projecting free cash flow of approximately $120 million in the fourth quarter and expect to end the year with very low debt leverage and significant unutilized debt financing capacity. Capital expenditures for the full year are projected at approximately $90 million. Today, we also announced our regular quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share. In summary, we are pleased with our strong earnings recovery in the second half of fiscal 2012. We believe that we are well-positioned for fiscal 2013, with strong momentum in both of our operating segments, favorable market conditions for printwear, new low-cost capacity coming onstream, capital investment projects for cost reductions and further product quality enhancements, projected synergies from our 2 recent strategic acquisitions and a very strong balance sheet, which gives us significant financing capacity and flexibility to finance potential complementary brand acquisitions and further investments in reinforcing our global low-cost vertical manufacturing.