James Flaws
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thanks, Ken. Good morning, everyone. Hopefully, you had a chance to read the press release we issued this morning in our first quarter results. If you haven't, a copy can be found on our Investor Relations website. I'm going to start by highlighting our terrific first quarter, and then provide some color and clarity on the impact of the earthquake in Japan, and also Sharp's recent utilization reductions on Corning. So let's start with the first quarter. Our first quarter results demonstrate Corning's growth opportunities are real, and we are succeeding at building a bigger, more balanced company. Each and every one of our segments grew sequentially and year-over-year. Our consolidated sales in Q1 were $1.9 billion, an increase of 9% over Q4, but even more impressively was the 24% increase over the first quarter of last year. As we highlighted during our February investor meeting, we strongly believe that every one of our segments will have significant growth this year and over the next several years, and for investors looking for evidence of that, look at our first quarter. Our first quarter gross margin also increased, reflecting good operational performance, reaching 45%, an increase over the fourth quarter gross margin of 43%. Earnings per share were excellent at $0.47, and well ahead of most expectations. In summary, our first quarter results are a great example of our growth and earnings potential going forward. In fact, there have been no changes to the mega trends and growth drivers that our business has participated in. The vision of the future we showed you in A Day Made of Glass video is still well intact, and Corning remains in position to capture these significant growth trends. So for investors, the most frequent questions over the last 6 weeks have been, how have the events in Japan, including Sharp's announcement, impacted Corning? So let me start with the events in Japan. First, we are so very pleased that all of our employees were safe and accounted for. Corning is a company of strong values, and valuing the individual is the most important value we have as a company. Second, none of our operations were impacted by the earthquake, the tsunami or the rolling power outages. Third, we've experienced no issues either obtaining raw materials to make glass or shipping finished product around or out of Japan. Fourth, we've done our own review of the components supply chain in Japan. As a result of this review, which includes many conversations with key component suppliers and our customers, it's our opinion that the potential shortage of components is unlikely to cause any material disruption. While there are components [indiscernible] that are still in the process of repairing and manufacturing operations are resuming production, many of the impacted companies have now made the necessary repairs, and are bringing production back online. In the meantime, the panel makers have had inventory of key components as well as finished panels. At some cases, they've already qualified secondary supply sources. So we no longer view this as a potential threat to the production of panel making. Now I'd like to talk about Sharp. They have been an important strategic partner and customer of ours for a very long time. For those who know their history, you may remember we collaborated with Sharp back in the 1980s on the first colored TFT-LCD panel. It is based on this mutual history and respect that we continue to work closely with them as they adjust their production plans. So here's what I can tell you today and some of this you may have heard directly from them. Sharp has decided to significantly reduce production at their Gen 8 and Gen 10 fabs to lower their inventory levels. We view this as a temporary reduction, and one that we do not believe will last beyond the second quarter. Looking ahead, we expect to see a significant increase in glass demand in Q3, as both production at Sharp resumes, and the worldwide supply chain prepares for the seasonally stronger fourth quarter. I'll add some more on our second quarter expectations and some early thoughts on Q3 and the outlook. Now that I've addressed some of the more important topics from the past few weeks, I'd like return to quarter 1 and recap our results in more detail. So moving down the income statement, as I mentioned a moment ago, gross margin increased from 43% in Q4 to 45% in Q1, reflecting strong Display volume and good manufacturing performance in Display, as well as Telecom and Environmental. Included in our quarter 1 gross margin was $12 million in start up in conversion costs and project costs related to conversion of additional capacity from LCD to Gorilla. As a reminder, our Q4 gross margin included $24 million of project-related costs and other write-offs. SG&A was $250 million or 13% of sales, and significantly lower than Q4 as expected. RD&E [research, development and engineering] was $156 million, and also lower than Q4. Equity earnings were $398 million, and were slightly lower sequentially compared to equity earnings, without specials from quarter 4. Other income was $27 million in Q1 versus $54 million in Q4. Approximately $10 million of this swing was due to the non-repeat of balance sheet hedge gains in Q4, as well as approximately $17 million in one-time corporate contributions this quarter. Net profit before taxes, excluding special items, was $867 million, and 15% higher than Q4, and the result of the 9% growth in sales, higher gross margin and lower operating expenses. Our tax rate increased as expected from 3% to 13% in Q1. Net profit after tax, excluding special items, was $751 million, up slightly versus the fourth quarter. The impact of movements in exchange rates from Q4 to Q1 was not material to our results. So now I'd like to turn to the first quarter with Display. Display sales were $790 million, an increase of 5% over Q4. Volume was up in the mid -- in the upper single digits, which was higher than we had expected. The strong volume was a result of Taiwanese and Japanese panel makers running at higher-than-expected utilization rates, which led to additional glass demand for us, but higher panel inventory levels for them. The stronger glass demand at our wholly-owned business kept us from building any additional inventory in Q1. As a result, we ended the quarter with healthy glass inventory levels. As expected, first quarter price declines were more moderate than the fourth quarter, and the benefit of movements in the end was negligible. Display gross margins increased quarter-over-quarter, reflecting strong manufacturing performance and the strong volume. At SCP, volume was up modestly but slightly lower than our expectations. Lower volume reflects the Korean panel makers decision to keep lower production levels in Q1 to maintain healthy inventory levels heading into Q2. And price declines at SCP were similar to our wholly-owned business. For your modeling purposes, SCP's first quarter LCD sales were about $1 billion, and consistent with the fourth quarter and as always, a reminder of this represents SCP's LCD sales only. Our public filings report their total sales, which includes CRT [cathode ray tube] glass and other products' sales. Equity earnings from SCP's LCD glass business were slightly lower sequentially, reflecting an increase in their tax rate. As we had disclosed during annual investor meeting, SCP's tax rate this year will be between 18% and 19%, versus a 15% rate in 2010. All in, our total glass volume, including SCP, was up 5% in the quarter as comparison to a worldwide glass market that grew about 2%, and reflects good progress against our goal to regain some of the market share we lost in 2009. So I'd like to spend a couple of minutes on the Display supply chain. We continue to be very encouraged about the level of inventory in the supply chain heading into Q2. We believe the amount of inventory in terms of square feet actually shrank slightly in Q1. This is comparison to a buildup of inventory in the first quarter of last year, of roughly 60 million square feet. We call that buildup was the beginning of an overbuild that continued in Q2 before the mild correction in Q3. We see no evidence of that repeating this year. Our models indicate supply chain exited Q1 with roughly 17 weeks of inventory, versus 17.5 at the same time a year ago. Now regarding retail, the data we have so far, suggests demand for televisions and monitors as well in line with our expectations. However, demand for notebooks has been a little softer. Worldwide, LCD television unit sales at retail were up 28% in January and 12% in February year-over-year. Both were slightly higher than we had expected. We do not have complete worldwide data for March. In the U.S., the retail market has gotten off to a good start for the first quarter. January is up 4%, February down 5%, and March up 9%. In fact, demand has been up, year-over-year, for the last 8 weeks in a row, including the first 2 weeks of April. As a reminder, we're forecasting the U.S. market to grow just a couple of million sets this year. In China, LCD television unit sales were up 28% in January and down 26% in February. This reflects the shift in timing of the Chinese New Year holiday sales. This year, there was only 1 week of holiday sales in February versus 3 weeks last year. Chinese New Year demand total was up slightly more than 25%, and right in line with our expectations. As a result, there did not appear to be any excess TV inventory following the holiday. Very importantly, in March, LCD television units in China grew 22%. In Europe, LCD television unit growth was up 16% in January, and 9% in February, both in line with our expectations. We do not have the final data for March. And in the developing regions, the growth rates were very robust. Emerging Asian sales were up 97% in January, 82% in February, and South America sales were up 90% in January and in February. Again, we don't have March data here either. In Japan, we continue to forecast 12 million units this year, about 0.5 of last year's total. This is the forecast from our annual investor meeting, and reflects the end of the Echo Point program in March. There has been some discussion about whether the program will be brought back but that does not appear to be happening. LCD television unit sales in Japan were down about 9% in January, and up 16% in February, possibly reflecting the rush prior to the expiration of the program. And they were down 6% in March. It was actually better than we had expected. March results did not appear to reflect any additional consumer weakness following the earthquake but obviously, we'll keep an eye on the April data when it comes out in a few weeks. For those who are modeling a softer Japan market following the earthquake, remember, there are approximately 10 square feet of glass in the average size television. So if the market, for example, was 3 million televisions less, that would equate to about 30 million square feet of glass. Based on what we've seen so far in the first quarter, we have no reason to adjust our forecast for 2011 worldwide LCD television demand. Now turning to monitors. Demand also continues to be on track with our forecast. Our data is based on shipments for the top 9 monitor brands, which make up about 75% of the worldwide monitor market. For the first two months of the year, unit shipments are consistent with last year. The notebook market has been weaker during the first quarter, and we have lowered our 2011 forecast from 212 million units to roughly 196 million. Our Q1 data is based on the top 5 ODMs, which make up about 80% of the worldwide notebook market. As a result, we have adjusted our worldwide glass forecast by roughly 100 million square feet, or less than 3% of the total from our previous range of 3.6 billion to 3.8 billion square feet to 3.5 billion to 3.7 billion square feet. I'd like to give you a brief update on Eagle XG Slim. We're very pleased with the pull we're getting from our customers. Investors, however, should not view Slim as a significant advantage over our existing competitors. Although we see no one else in the market with any significant volume, our assumption is they will eventually be able to make thinner glass, although it maybe more difficult and costly for them. We do believe any potential new entrants would have difficulty duplicating Slim. The way we think about it, if you're a competitor who has been trying for the last few years to produce and sell your first piece of LCD glass at the standard size of 0.7 millimeters, and you have not been able to meet customer specifications, now your customers would want glass that's 30% thinner. Think about how high the bar has moved. So let's turn to Telecom, which is really hitting on all cylinders. Sales were $474 million, up 7% from Q4, and significantly higher than our expectations. Compared to last year, Telecom's sales were up 30%. The year-over-year growth was driven by the 2 areas, Clark Kinlin highlighted during our annual investor meeting, Fiber-to-the-Home, which was up 70% from last year, and Enterprise Networks, which were up 20%. We also saw a very strong demand for optical fiber, as well as hardware equipment in the first quarter. In fact, in the month of March, we sold more kilometers of optical fiber than any other month in our entire history. Our bottom line performance was more impressive. Telecom net income was $41 million in Q1, up significantly from Q4's $18 million, and the $8 million reported last year. We're seeing more of the sales fall to the bottom line as the mix of higher margin products increases. Those who model our Telecom segment, you will see this in the segments' gross margin performance. As Clark said in February, we feel very bullish about our Telecom business and the wealth of market opportunities there in front of us. Not only this year but over the next several years. Now in our Environmental segment, first quarter sales were also higher than we expected, and actually an all-time record. Sales were $259 million, up 12% sequentially, and up 35% over last year, led primarily by diesel. Diesel sales were up 18% sequentially and up 81% year-over-year, driven primarily by the recovery in heavy-duty diesel filter demand. In fact, the business had record quarterly sales in Q1 for both heavy-duty and light-duty filters. This is another segment that's posted strong gross margin improvement and significant net profit gains. Net income was about $29 million in the first quarter compared to $15 million in Q4, and just $11 million we made last year. Environmental is also poised to capture significant growth over the next several years while expanding its gross margins and profits. In Specialty Materials, Q1 sales were $254 million, an increase of 29% over Q4, and 2.5x larger than Q1 of last year. The significant growth was primarily due to Gorilla Glass, which continues to be the industry's cover glass technology of choice. Segment net income grew from $2 million to $8 million in Q1. The segment's Q1 results include the first material sales of TV cover, which are currently not a significant contributor to segment profits. Gorilla Glass sales were roughly $150 million in Q1, an increase of 50% over Q4. We continue to believe Gorilla Glass sales could approach $1 billion this year. In fact, since we launched Gorilla sales -- Gorilla Glass 4 years ago, the first quarter has represented about 15% of the full year demand. So we feel we're on track with our sales goals. We do need TV cover glass to contribute to our sales goal this year. We have begun significant shipments of the cover glass in Q1, and we're now awaiting market feedback, as consumers have a chance to see this innovative new product. While TV cover will not be a contributor to profits this year, we are very anxious to see how well it sells. And we're continuing to learn how to make large-scale strengthened glass for this product, which will help us in other business opportunities. Our first mover advantage continues to pay significant dividends. We're currently designed in over 370 different models since the product was introduced. That includes 217 in the market today, plus another 30 that are being released in 3 months. We continue to make progress extending Gorilla Glass into new markets, including an exciting collaboration with Hyundai in a futuristic concept car. In addition, a major architectural firm announced Gorilla Glass is designed into a prototype prefab apartment unit. The firm exhibited Gorilla Glass just last week at an industry show in Seattle. In Life Sciences, sales in the first quarter were $144 million, up slightly over the fourth quarter. At Dow Corning, Q1 sales were $1.6 billion, consistent with the fourth quarter, but up 17% over the prior year. Equity earnings were $91 million in Q1, that's versus $124 million in Q4. But as a reminder, Q4 had included $42 million in one-time gains. Without those one-time gains, equity earnings were up 11% sequentially. Shifting to the balance sheet, we ended Q1 with $6.3 billion in cash and short-term investments, versus current long-term debt of just $2.3 billion. Free cash flow was negative $104 million in Q1. The largest outflow of cash during the quarter was for capital spending, which was $532 million, in line with our expectations. We also completed our acquisition of MobileAccess during the quarter. As a reminder, free cash flow is a non-GAAP measure, and the GAAP for reconciliation is on our website. Moving further down the balance sheet. Inventory increased from $738 million at the end of Q4 to about $841 million at the end of Q1. This increase was almost entirely in just 2 segments, Gorilla and Telecom. For Gorilla, the business is gearing up for the significant step up in demand in the second half. In Telecom, most of the increase was related to the acquisition of MobileAccess. Now let me turn to our outlook starting with Display. In Q2, we expect the worldwide glass demand to be consistent quarter-to-quarter with the Korean glass market demand up substantially and the rest of the world down substantially. This reflection of the Korean panel makers increasing their utilization rates following more modest production levels for the last 2 quarters. In Taiwan, we expect panel makers to run a lower utilization rates in an effort to reduce panel inventory. And in Japan, obviously, glass demand will be significantly lower due to Sharp's capacity decision. This will result in our total glass volume, which includes SCP, to be consistent quarter-to-quarter. At our wholly-owned business, volume went down in the low- to mid-teens sequentially, reflecting a lower utilization rates in Taiwan, as well as Sharp's capacity reductions. At SCP, we expect volume to be up in the low- to mid-teens sequentially. Regarding glass market, in total, we view the amount of shipments in Q2 to be good news for the overall supply chain. Typically, the second quarter is the hardest to forecast, given the traditional slower seasonal retail environment and the supply chain's desire to build inventory heading into the second half. So the fact that glass shipments are consistent is viewed as a positive by us. We do expect the supply chain to build some inventory in Q2 preparing for the second half. But the amount of inventory is expected to be built, based on our models, is about half the amount that was built in Q2 of last year. We again view this as a positive. Although absolute inventory will increase on a forward-looking basis, the number of weeks in inventory and the supply chain will remain about 17.5 exit in Q2. Glass prices at our both wholly-owned business and SCP are expected to moderate even further in the second quarter. We usually do not provide guidance beyond a quarter, but we thought it's important to note that we believe the worldwide glass demand is going to increase significantly across all geographic regions in the third quarter. In our Telecom segment, we expect second quarter sales to be up 20% sequentially, and compared to last year, Telecom sales would be up about 30%. We expect sequential and year-over-year growth across all our Telecom product lines. We expect sales in Environmental to be down just slightly sequentially compared to the stronger-than-expected first quarter, but up 35% year-over-year. And in Life Sciences, we expect sales to be up slightly sequentially and almost 20% year-over-year. Specialty Materials sales are expected to grow about 20% sequentially, driven primarily by Gorilla Glass. In the income statement, Q2 corporate gross margin should be down 2 to 3 points, primarily due to the lower volume of sales in Display. SG&A, as a percentage of sales on a dollar basis, will tick up slightly in Q2, reflecting the company's annual merit increases which occur in April. And RD&E will be roughly 90% of sales. We expect equity earnings to be up about 10% sequentially, reflecting a strong volume in SCP. Investors should note that the movements in the yen to the U.S. dollar exchange rate influence our results. Again, for your modeling purposes, every 1 point move in the yen, our sales and net income moves by about $9 million. The net income impact includes SCP where a stronger yen also improves their results. And finally, moving to taxes, we expect our Q2 and 2011 tax rate to be about 15%. That concludes our formal comments this morning. Ken?