James Flaws
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets
Thanks, Ken. Good morning, everyone. Hopefully, you had a chance to read the press release we issued this morning on our second quarter results. If you haven't, a copy can be found on our Investor Relations website. We had a very good quarter, with sales at $2 billion, up 17% year-over-year, with EPS of $0.48. The quarter met our expectations. We did slightly better on volume in our wholly-owned display business than we had expected. We were delighted with the broad-based sales growth in all our other segments. This sales performance resulted in very good profitability. I'll come back to the quarter in a minute, but I'd like to switch gears and talk about the macro market outlook changes that we have adopted. I'm going to start by highlighting 2 key forecast changes. First, we are lowering our 2011 LCD glass market forecast to 3.3 billion to 3.4 billion square feet. Our previous range was 3.5 billion to 3.7 billion square feet. The display industry has behaved -- been behaving more cautiously in recent weeks, driven primarily by weaker retail expectations for the second half. We've seen most of the major television brands reduce their sales forecast over the past month. So part of the reason for our lower glass forecast is because the industry appears to be expecting lower retail demand for televisions. The supply chain appears to be preparing for a more muted second half by building less inventory in quarter 2 and by panel makers continuing to run at lower utilization rates or, in some cases, lowering them further. In general, it appears the supply chain is waiting a little longer to build inventory for the seasonal fall of the fourth quarter. There is some good news in this behavior as early inventory builds have led to correction issues in the past. Second, we're now forecasting Gorilla Glass sales this year to be about $800 million. We previously believed that Gorilla had the potential to generate $1 billion of sales in 2011, but that was always predicated on significant demand for TV cover glass. We do not have any specific retail value yet for Sony televisions. But today, there are only been a limited number of TV models with Gorilla Glass available and most of them are on higher price sets. As a result, we're now expecting to sell only about $50 million in TV cover glass this year versus our original expectations of closer to $200 million. The remainder of our Gorilla Glass business, which is for handhelds and IT products continues to grow robustly. We anticipate sales for those -- just those products to be $750 million this year, which would be triple last year's sales. For those investors wondering if it's still our plan to reach $10 billion of sales by 2014, the answer is yes. We just completed our annual long-term planning meetings and our conclusion was the $10 billion sales target is well intact. I also have an update on our 2012 CapEx plans and some exciting news on photovoltaic glass, but I will save them for the outlook section. I'd like to review our second quarter results in more detail. Q2's sales were $2 billion, an increase of 4% over Q1, but more impressively was the 17% increase over the second quarter of last year, which -- with the exception of display, which was down slightly versus last year, each segment sales increased significantly over last year. Our second quarter gross margins, 44.3%, down from the 45.4%, but higher than we had anticipated due to stronger-than-expected display volume. SG&A was $284 million or 14% of sales and in line with expectations, increase in SG&A from the first quarter reflects our annual merit increases, which for most employees, occurred in April. And RD&E was $172 million or about 8.5% of sales. Equity earnings were $428 million, an increase of 8% over the first quarter. Other income was $43 million in Q2 versus $27 million in Q1, the increase is due to the non-repeat of certain expense items from quarter 1. Net profit after tax, excluding special items, was $758 million, up slightly versus the first quarter. Earnings per share, excluding special items, were $0.48 in Q2, up slightly from Q1. Both net profit after tax and earnings per share, excluding special items, are non-GAAP measures. Please see the reconciliation to GAAP on our website. The impact of movements in exchange rates from Q1 to Q2 was not material to our results. Now let me turn to our segment results for the second quarter, and I'll start with Display. Display sales were $760 million, a decrease of 4% versus Q1. The decrease was less than we expected, reflecting the startup of Sharp's Gen 8 and Sharp's Gen 10 fabs earlier than we had anticipated, as well as higher-than-projected utilization rates at our Taiwanese and Chinese customers. The stronger-than-expected glass demand at our wholly-owned business kept us from building much additional inventory in Q2. As a result, we ended the quarter with healthy glass inventory levels. Glass price declines in the second quarter were moderate again. The benefits of movements in the end was just a slight positive. Display gross margins were lower than Q2 versus Q1, but higher than we originally expected, reflecting the stronger-than-anticipated volumes. At SCP, volume was about up about 10%, which is lower than our expectations and reflects the Korean panel maker decisions to run at lower utilization rates during the quarter. Price declines at SCP were again moderate. For your modeling purposes, SCP's second quarter LCD sales were about $1.1 billion, up slightly from the first quarter. As a reminder, this represents SCP LCD sales only of public filings report SCP's total sales, which include CRT glass and other product sales. Equity earnings from SCP's LCD glass business were $319 million, up almost 9% versus the first quarter. SCP Q2 results include a gain from transfer of LCD glass from SCP to our wholly-owned business. All in all, our total glass volume, including SCP, was up about 5% in the quarter. This is in comparison to the worldwide glass market that grew about 2% a quarter and reflects good progress against our goal to recover some of the market share that we lost in 2009. So let's spend a few minutes discussing the Display supply chain. As I mentioned in my opening comments, it appears that the supply chain is waiting a little longer to build inventory for the seasonal pull of the fourth quarter. This may be driven by expectations of a softer second half demand at retail and the current low levels of profitability at the industry. As a result, we anticipate the supply chain will be more cautious, build less inventory and consume less glass than we previously forecasted. In the second quarter, our model suggests supply chain build only 85 million in inventory in terms of square feet of glass. This represents panel inventory at panel makers, set inventory at set makers and finish product sitting at retail. This build was much lower than last year when the supply chain build over 200 million square feet inventory. As a reminder, that amount last year was actually higher than needed, and the supply chain then went through a mild correction late Q3 and beginning of Q4. This year, even with the industries more muted second half expectations for retail, supply chain inventories do not appear to be too high. Our models indicate supply chain exited Q2 with a little under 17 weeks of inventory. As I mentioned earlier, we lowered our glass volume expectations for the market to a range of 3.3 billion to 3.4 billion square feet. Part of the reason is the expectation of the supply chain will be more cautious, as I mentioned above. The other reason is the industry's lower TV sales expectations. While our retail data, which is complete through May, does not indicate a slowdown in LCD televisions sales, many of the top TV brands have now lowered their 2011 expectations in recent weeks. On this slide, you can see the lower expectations by television brand. This information has been provided by a display search. As a result, we lowered our LCD TV unit forecast for this year from 222 million units to a range of 210 million to 212 million. This revised range is generally in line with other industry estimates. On this side, you'll see our original expectations by geographic region versus our revised forecast. As a reminder, retail data always lags getting to us typically takes between 4 and 6 weeks for different vendors to accumulate and analyze the data. So through June, LCD television unit demand at retail is generally in line with our original expectations for the year. The first 6 months of the year, LCD TV units sales were up 18%. This compares to our original full year growth of 16%. And now our new revised growth rate of 10%. We've summarized the year-over-year growth rates for television by month and by region on one slide, so I'm not going to go through all the details. I would like to call your attention to the recent European demand being below last year. It is very important to remember that last year included the additional World Cup demand. And the recent increases in Japan probably relate to the upcoming analog to digital broadcast turnover. Regarding the PC market, we've had no change to our previous forecast. We expect PC market, excluding tablets, to grow 6%. We expect tablets to approach 60 million, up from 20 million last year. Based on our current expectations for glass demand in the second half, we are planning to continue to run our operations at full capacity, with the appropriate balancing between LCD glass and Gorilla Glass. However, we'll continue to monitor retail environment for any signs of further weakness. As many of you know, we have several levers available to adjust our output response to the significant changes in market demand and are prepared to utilize these levers if demand dictates. Now turning to the Telecom segment, which continues to run at full capacity. Sales were $548 million, up 16% versus Q1 and up 24% versus last year. Sequential growth was slightly lower than we guided due primarily to some project timing. Sequential and year-over-year growth was driven by all of our product lines across all geographic regions. Optical fiber volume was up more than 40% year-over-year, driven by strong demand in North America and Europe and China. We shipped more optical fiber in the second quarter than any time in our history. And fiber-to-the-home demand was up more than 60% year-over-year. Our bottom line performance was equally impressive. Telecom net income was $46 million in Q2, up 12% versus Q1 and up more than 50% year-over-year. We are seeing more of our sales dollars fall to the bottom line as the mix of higher margin products increases. As Clark Kinlin said at our annual investor meeting, we feel very bullish about the Telecom business and the wealth of market opportunities in front of us, not only this year, but over the next several years. In our Environmental segment, second quarter sales were $258 million, consistent with the first quarter, as expected. Versus Q2 of last year, sales were up 40%. This is one of our segments that boasted strong gross margin improvement and significant net margin gains. Net income was $32 million in the second quarter, up 10% versus Q1 on flat sales, and net income a year ago was only $5 million. We believe the Environmental segment is poised to capture significant growth over the next several years, while expanding its gross margin and profits as we improve our manufacturing. Moving to Specialty Materials. Q2 sales were $283 million, an increase of 11% over Q1 and more than double a year ago. The significant growth was primarily due to Gorilla Glass. We also saw significant gross margin expansion in this segment, led by Gorilla Glass for handhelds and IT. Back to gross margin, those sales is now above our corporate average. Segment net income also grew significantly from $8 million in Q1 to $23 million in Q2. Gorilla Glass sales were roughly a $190 million in Q2, an increase of about 24% over the first quarter, included in this amount are sales of TV cover glass, which declined sequentially. Excluding TV cover, Gorilla Glass sales increased 35% sequentially. As I mentioned earlier, we now expect Gorilla Glass sales to be $800 million this year. While this expectation is lower than what we previously discussed, it is triple last year's sales. Gorilla Glass represents the most significant growth engine for Corning. During the second quarter, we were designed into a dozen more products, including devices for Motorola, Nokia, Lenovo and Samsung. Gorilla Glass now has 440 design wins since the product was launched, including another 60 models launching the market over the next 90 days. Gorilla Glass clearly continues to be the cover glass technology of choice. Moving to Life Sciences. Sales in the second quarter were $155 million, up 8% over the first quarter, higher than our expectations. Versus last year, sales were up 24%, about half the year-over-year growth was due to acquisitions. Turning to Dow Corning. Q2 sales were $1.7 billion, up 6% from the first quarter and up 8% versus last year. Equity earnings were $95 million in Q2 versus $91 million in Q1. Regarding polysilicon spot prices, they've fallen significantly since the first quarter. However, the current spot prices are still well above prices in our long-term contracts. For those who keep track of poly price -- you'll note the market prices today are still higher than the last significant price decline from a few years ago. To date, Dow Corning has not had a customer change, one customer either change or reduce a purchase order. Demand remains very strong. In fact, Dow Corning is getting requests from our Tier 1 customers to do another round of pre-funding to lock-in poly supply through 2017 [indiscernible]. Now turning to balance sheet. We ended Q2 with about $6.4 billion in cash and short-term investments versus current and long-term debt of just $2.3 billion. Free cash flow was a positive $54 million in Q2. The largest outflow of cash during the quarter was CapEx, which was $494 million. Based on our capital spending to date and the expected timing of our projects for the remainder of this year, we expect our total CapEx this year to be at the lower end of our previous guidance range of $2.4 billion to $2.7 billion. On this slide, you can see our original range and updated forecast by segment. I'd like to call your attention to the Display and Specialty Materials capital spending numbers. A large portion of the Display capital spend for this year is for the expansion of our Taichung facility. While this expansion is for a new LCD capacity, it's actually needed to replace the existing LCD tanks and the process of being converted to Gorilla Glass. So while the spending is technically within our Display segment, if we did not convert existing tags to Gorilla, we would have had to build the tanks for Gorilla. On this slide, you can see a breakout of the spending by major project. The new plant in Beijing will cost about $400 million this year, while the expansion in Taichung to replace the capacity being converted over to Gorilla will cost about $500 million. We've also budgeted about $350 million for what we call strategic asset protection. We have some lessons learned from the earthquake and power disruption at our plants in 2009. We're making some investments to improve the business continuity of our factories and also buying extra precious metals. We believe this spending will help prevent damage to our plants and also enable faster recovery from adverse events. As a reminder, we carry precious metals at cost, and they are not consumed during production. So these assets could be sold if no longer needed. Obviously, this spending is considered strategic by us. It is discretionary. And if we were looking for levers to reduce capital spending, this could be one of them. We've also reviewed our capital project roadmap for 2012 and have some initial estimates for you today. Barring any lag between project and completion of spending, we anticipate the 2012 CapEx to be between $1.9 billion and $2 billion. On this slide, you can see the breakout. Most of the plant capital spending will be for Corning products that are poised to grow very rapidly over the next several years such as Gorilla Glass, substrates for catalytic converters, diesel filters, optical fiber and of course, the completion of our new display glass facility in Beijing, China. In Telecom, we've been running our operations full and need to add more capacity to meet this growing industry. We expect the strong growth rates you've seen so far this year to continue, especially in optical fiber, fiber-to-the-home and Enterprise Networks. In Environmental, we announced an expansion of our Shanghai auto substrate plant last week, spending for that is included in this number. Life Sciences, which is included in Other, we are also expanding our China operation. China is clearly poised to grow faster than developed world, fueling demand for more autos, telecom networks, TVs and healthcare products. Now while the hyper GDP growth we saw over the past several years may slow slightly, according to industry experts, even slower GDP in China will be higher than most regions of the world. And we are continuing to invest to capture our share of that opportunity. On this slide is a breakout for Display and Specialty Materials for 2012. For Display, the majority of spending will be on the completion of the new facility in Beijing and completion of the expansion of Taichung. Now moving further down the balance sheet, inventory increased from $841 million at the end of Q1 to about $917 million at the end of Q2. This increase was almost entirely related to Gorilla Glass as we are preparing for the significant increase in demand in the second half. There was some additional inventory built in Display, although it was much less than we had expected. We expect to see good top line growth in the third quarter, led primarily by Gorilla Glass and Display. We expect even stronger bottom line growth driven by the higher sales and gross margin expansion. In Display, we expect our total glass volume, which includes the wholly-owned business and SCP, to be consistent with the second quarter. It's in line with our expectations for the overall glass market in Q3. At our wholly-owned business, we expect volumes to grow in the mid to upper single digits sequentially, a volume growth primarily driven by a full quarter of higher production levels at Sharp. We expect glass price declines will continue to be moderate. With price declines at a lower level, we'll be using the word moderate going forward. If we experience a significant excursion in pricing, we'll, of course, disclose that change. Now at SCP, we expect Q3 volume to actually be down in the mid-single digits compared to Q2. With the exception of Sharp's temporary curtailment of production in Q2, glass demand from panel makers in Japan, Taiwan and China has been stronger than our initial expectations. Korean panel makers have been running lower utilizations and these are lower than we had expected, for actually the past 9 months. We believe this is a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future. Regarding panel prices, we would not be surprised if it stayed flat for the remainder of the quarter. With the exception of a 2-week period in May, panel pricing was flat for most of Q2. Although some in the industry were expecting more consistent panel price increases in Q2, we did not expect that to happen. In the past, consistent panel price increases have only occurred when there have been panel supply constraints. The amount of excess panel capacity currently, we do not anticipate such constraints in the near future. We do expect the supply chain in coal to build some inventory in Q3 in preparation for Q4. Based on our models, we expect the number of weeks in inventory, on a forward-looking basis, to actually be lower actually in Q3. We don't usually provide guidance beyond the quarter, but we thought it important to note that the worldwide glass demand is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, assuming retail remains healthy and there's no negative change in the economic outlook. And as a reminder, the Chinese New Year in 2012 will be earlier. In our Telecom segment, we expect third quarter sales to be up slightly in comparison to a very strong Q2. Our ability to supply is extremely tight right now, as most of the markets we participate in, such as optical fiber, fiber-to-the-home and Enterprise Networks are all growing substantially. We are working hard to leverage our existing capacity, as well as ramping up some additional capacity to meet demand. Compared to last year, Q3 Telecom sales are expected to be up about 20%. Now as a reminder, the strongest quarters for Telecom in terms of sales have been Q2 and Q3, historically; and the increase of sales between Q2 and Q3 is usually slight. For example, in '08, '09, '10, the increase in sales between Q2 to Q3 was 4%, 3% and 5%. We expect sales in Environmental segment to be consistent with the second quarter and up 25% year-over-year. Like Telecom, our ability to supply is extremely tight in this area. Life Sciences sales are expected to be up slightly sequentially. In Specialty Materials, sales are expected to grow in the upper single digit sequentially and 90% year-over-year driven primarily by Gorilla Glass. Gorilla Glass for IT and handheld is expected to increase 20% sequentially, offset by lower sales and other product lines within Specialty. Moving back to the income statement. We expect our Q3 corporate gross margin percent to grow by a couple of percentage points, due to the higher volume in Display and continued manufacturing improvements in Gorilla. SG&A expected to be consistent on a dollar basis, and thus lower on a percentage of sales in Q3. R&D will remain around 9% of sales, if not slightly lower. We expect equity earnings to be down in the upper single digits, as lower SCP earnings will more than offset higher equity earnings at Dow Corning. Moving to taxes. We expect Q3 in 2011 tax rate to be about 15%. Investors should note that movements in the yen to U.S. dollar exchange rate influence our results. For your modeling purposes, for every 1 point move in the yen, our sales and net income move by about $10 million. The net income impact includes SCP, where a stronger yen, which also improved their results. Before I move to Q&A, I'd like to mention that we remain very confident in our innovation portfolio, and have made some significant progress on advancing several of our R&D programs in recent months. One of the future growth opportunities we're investing in today is specialty glass with thin-film photovoltaics. It is well known in the PV industry and by investors that Corning glass has demonstrated record efficiency levels on the research side of sales in silicon-tandem this year. Some of you may recall, in April, that General Electric announced a record 12.8% on a full size cad tel module, which is recently verified by NREL. I'm happy to report this 12.8% record module used Corning's photovoltaic glass. We continue to be very encouraged by the progress we have made in recent months and remain confident we'll have a PV customer by the end of the year. The other future opportunity is OLEDs. We believe OLEDs will develop to become important to the display industry in the future and will require new glass compositions to maximize OLED potentials. We have developed a new glass for OLEDs, which is in customer qualification tests now. And we're also working on new glass composition for large size OLEDs. These innovations, combined with our strong growth of existing new products, such as Gorilla cover glass, ClearCurve optical fiber, Pretium EDGE products for data centers and diesel filters will provide a solid foundation for our growth in sales. So that completes my formal comments this morning. Ken?