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Granite Ridge Resources, Inc (GRNT)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Mar 6, 2026

$5.87

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. I will now turn the call over to James Masters, Vice President, Investor Relations.

James Masters

Management

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. We will begin our call with comments from Tyler Parkinson, our President and Chief Executive Officer, who will review the quarter’s results and company strategy along with an overview of 2026 financial and operating guidance, and introduce our newly announced Chief Financial Officer, Kyle Kettler. He will then turn the call over to Kyle to review our financial results in greater detail. Tyler will then return to provide closing comments before we open the call for questions. Today’s conference call contains certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied. We ask that you review the cautionary statement in our earnings release. Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on these statements. These and other risks are described in yesterday’s press release and our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also includes references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information reconciling these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available in our earnings release on our website. Finally, this call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on our website following today’s call. With that, I will turn the call over to Tyler.

Tyler Parkinson

Management

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. We are proud to report results for our third full year as a public company. While much has changed since the company went public in 2022, our commitment to pursuing the highest risk-adjusted rate of return projects and creating durable shareholder value remains the same. It is that commitment that drove our evolution from a traditional nonoperated company pursuing a diversified investment strategy to a capital allocator focused on the Permian Basin, backing proven management teams to acquire and develop high-quality assets, a strategy shift that is the driving force behind our results. For the fourth quarter and full year 2025, average daily production increased 27% year over year to 35,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Total production for the year increased similarly to 32,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Adjusted EBITDAX for the quarter was approximately $70,000,000 and $315,000,000 for the full year. Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter were $127,500,000, split approximately half to development and half to inventory acquisitions. Our full year capital expenditures were $401,000,000. Finally, we maintained our quarterly dividend of $0.11 per share, which continues to demonstrate our commitment to return meaningful capital to shareholders. Since going public, we have significantly increased production while maintaining a conservative balance sheet. That capital-efficient growth is a result of consistently hitting our underwriting targets and increasing our capital allocation to operator projects thanks to a structural opportunity we identified in the market. Over the past decade, private capital retreated from the natural resources sector in a major way, fundamentally changing the landscape for energy development. Private equity fundraising declined dramatically, and the remaining capital focused on fewer teams chasing larger opportunities. This left a scarcity of capital and competition in the unit-by-unit operated segment. At the same time,…

Kyle Kettler

Management

Thank you, Tyler, and good morning, everyone. It is my pleasure to join my first Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. earnings call, and I look forward to spending time with our analysts and investors in the months ahead. Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. is building something truly different, allocating capital and creating value from a platform that is unique in public and private E&P. I am excited to be here. Tyler covered the strategic highlights and 2026 outlook, so I will focus on the fourth quarter and full year financial results and our capital position. For the fourth quarter, oil and natural gas sales totaled $105,500,000. Revenue was essentially flat compared to the prior-year quarter because of commodity pricing; however, production grew an impressive 27% year over year. In the fourth quarter, our average realized oil price was $55.49 per barrel, compared to $65.53 per barrel in the same period last year. Natural gas averaged $1.81 per Mcf in the quarter, or 48% of Henry Hub. These weak realizations, particularly in the Permian Basin, had a meaningful impact on revenue and, by extension, EBITDAX and operating cash flow. As a result, adjusted EBITDAX for the quarter was $69,500,000, and operating cash flow totaled $64,500,000. For the full year, oil and natural gas sales totaled $450,300,000, with production increasing 28% year over year to 31,984 barrels equivalent per day. Full year adjusted EBITDAX was $315,000,000, and operating cash flow was $296,400,000. The takeaway is straightforward. Our asset base is scaling, oil remains roughly half of the mix, and volume growth is industry leading. Pricing, especially in the Permian Basin, was a swing factor in fourth quarter revenue and cash flow. That dynamic reinforces the importance of initiatives like the Conduit Power transaction Tyler mentioned, which we expect will help improve Permian gas realizations…

Tyler Parkinson

Management

Thanks, Kyle. Let me close with a few high-level points. First, 2025 was a transformational year for Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. We scaled the operator partnership model, expanded our controlled inventory in the Permian, and grew production 28% year over year. We leaned into an opportunity set that is structurally advantaged and difficult to replicate. Second, we are now shifting from outsized growth to durability. Our 2026 plan reflects a moderation in growth, tighter alignment of development capital with cash flow, and a clear path towards sustainable free cash flow generation in 2027. Third, our competitive advantage is our structure and business development engine. By underwriting unit by unit at strip pricing, partnering with proven operators, and maintaining capital flexibility, we consistently hit our investing underwriting targets, which has resulted in significant growth in production and asset value. Finally, we remain committed to balanced shareholder returns. The dividend remains a core component of our framework. As we cross into free cash flow, we will have increasing optionality around capital allocation. We appreciate the continued support of our shareholders, partners, and employees and look forward to the year ahead. Operator, we are ready to take questions.

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press 1 again. Please pick up your handset when asking a question. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Phillips Johnston with Capital One. Your line is open. Please proceed with your question.

Phillips Johnston

Analyst

Hey, thanks for the time. First, a question for Kyle. Your fourth quarter realized oil and gas prices as a percentage of NYMEX were a little bit lower than usual in the fourth quarter, especially on the gas side. I think in your comments, you alluded to weak Waha prices as the driver on the gas side, so that makes sense and is not surprising. But is there anything to call out on the oil side? And as a follow-up, what should we be thinking about for our models in 2026 in terms of both oil and gas differentials?

Kyle Kettler

Management

Yes, thanks. Yes, the fourth quarter was weak on natural gas realization, and that was driven by Waha pricing. We have a substantial portion of natural gas coming from the Permian Basin, and that Waha basis widened out during the quarter on us. Going forward, we have modeled that. You can see the strip. We are utilizing that as a way to predict what Waha prices will be over the next year, and those prices are pretty low early in the year, and they tighten up a little bit towards the back end of the year, and then 2027 going forward. The strip is much better but still negative around a dollar or so. On the oil side of the equation, there is not anything particularly that sticks out. There is a bit of a negative difference between realized and benchmark prices, but we have that in our model going forward as well.

Phillips Johnston

Analyst

Okay. Sounds good. And then could you maybe give us a sense of how many net wells are planned for 2026 relative to the 38 that you brought online last year? And would you expect any significant change in the mix for this year? I think last year’s mix was close to 85% in the Permian, with most of the balance in Appalachia, Haynesville, and the DJ. I just wanted to get some color there.

Kyle Kettler

Management

You bet. So last year was 38 net wells turned online. Towards the end of the year, it got a little gassier with some Haynesville wells coming on. We see 2026 being about 29 net wells coming online, and the relative mix of gas and oil should tilt back towards oil as the year goes on with more Permian Basin activity.

Tyler Parkinson

Management

Yes, Phillips, on that point, on the oil point, if you look at oil production growth from 2025 to 2026, we see 12% growth there, so a little more oil growth from 2025 to 2026 versus gas.

Phillips Johnston

Analyst

Yes, and that, I guess, implies your oil mix ticks back up to 51% from 49% in Q4 here. Alright. Great. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Derek Whitfield with TPH&Co. Your line is open. Please proceed with your question.

Derek Whitfield

Analyst · TPH&Co. Your line is open. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, and congrats on the acquisition success you had in 2025. I wanted to start on slide 14. As you think about the business’ transition to sustainable free cash flow in 2027, are you outlining that this morning as a business objective for 2027 based on your desire to lower leverage, or is it based on your current view of the opportunities ahead of you? I am not trying to pin you down as we live in a dynamic environment, just trying to understand the driver and how firm the message is.

Tyler Parkinson

Management

It is not an opportunity set driver. It is a leverage driver. We have been very consistent about wanting to run the business to about one to one and a quarter leverage just to execute the base business plan. We have said that we would go north of that for something more strategic, but to operate the base business plan, think of that as one and a quarter. We have planned this year and next year in a more than $60 oil environment. That is the lens we are looking through when we are thinking about 2027 free cash flow. Obviously, with higher prices, there is going to be some additional capacity that we could take in 2026 and 2027 to continue to prosecute additional capture or additional development drilling and still be able to deliver some free cash flow.

Derek Whitfield

Analyst · TPH&Co. Your line is open. Please proceed with your question.

Great. And as my follow-up, I wanted to focus on your operated partnerships. We appreciate what you are highlighting with Admiral in today’s presentation, but could you offer some color on general activity and inventory levels across your other operated partnerships?

Tyler Parkinson

Management

I would love to fill in some blanks there. We have spoken publicly about our first two. Admiral had the benefit of getting a head start on our other three partners, so they are the most secure and steady state of the four partners. I think the Admiral story is pretty clear to everyone in the public domain. They are focused on Delaware Basin, unit-by-unit inventory capture from some of the larger asset managers in the basin. That story has been successful. We are running a couple of rigs there. We are adding inventory faster than the development base there, so we hope to be able to replicate this same evolution with the other three partners. Partner two is actually PetroLegacy. We have mentioned that before, former EnCap-backed. That team is focused on the northern Midland Basin Dean play. They have captured a position there in the Dean play. We will probably get started on some selective development of that position this year. That market has gotten extremely competitive, as everyone knows, so I am not sure how much additional running room we will have there. The PetroLegacy team is looking at some other opportunities in the basin and also potentially outside of the basin. We hope to have some drilling results from them this year. Our third team, we have not disclosed who that is, but I can tell you what they are doing. They are another successful team that has exited private equity. They are focused on some of the emerging plays in the Permian Basin—think Woodford, Barnett. Those transactions will probably look a little more blocky from an acreage perspective—larger chunks of acreage. They will come with some appraisal to figure out what exactly we have, but if that is successful, that will add a lot of medium-term inventory for us and start to fill in some of the development drilling in 2028 and beyond. Team four is our newest team. They are also a Midland-based team, an exit from private equity. They look a lot like the Admiral team, mainly focused on Midland Basin opportunities. I think they will be sourcing opportunity from the larger asset managers out there on a unit-by-unit basis. We are about six months into that one, so that is very new, but they have already started to capture inventory. Typically, it takes us maybe 12 to 18 months to get enough inventory to have about 18 months to two years of inventory in front of the team in order for us to justify picking up a rig. I probably would not expect a whole lot of development activity from that team this year, but as we move into 2027, I think we will see them start to fill in some development.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Giroux with Stephens. Your line is open. Please proceed with your question.

Jerry Giroux

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. My first question is in regards to the move to generating free cash flow in 2027. First, continuing at the same growth rate you have been doing the last couple of years, how did you decide to generate free cash flow versus growing? And the second part is, I know it is early, but if this free cash flow will be returned to shareholders, and if so, in what form are you thinking? Or will this just be cash that goes on the balance sheet for maybe a good opportunity?

Tyler Parkinson

Management

It is probably to be determined on the second part. We have a lot of options there, and when we get there, we will see what the best option is at that time. On the first part, we want to transition the business into something that is more durable and long term. We think we have done a good job of gaining some scale over the past handful of years, maturing the business and the strategy. We still see a ton of opportunity in front of us from an inventory capture standpoint, but being able to show some free cash flow and keep our leverage around our target, which is still very conservative at one and a quarter times, will still give us a lot of opportunity to pursue additional inventory capture if we wanted to accelerate some.

Kyle Kettler

Management

I would just add, the growth rates were pretty significant over the last couple of years, and it will still be high single digits going into next year. So it will still be pretty good growth. A lot of the capital spending is through operated partnerships, and that is based on a development plan we have coordinated with them. That puts us in this modeling position where we think we can see into 2026 and 2027 and turn into free cash flow in the 2027 time period.

Jerry Giroux

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open. Please proceed with your question.

That is perfect. Thanks for the color. And then one more question about slide nine. Could you give a little more color on that slide? You talked about Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. retains 92% of the ten-year projected cash flows, then also that the Hamburglar wells or pads achieved the hurdle reversion. Could you give a few more details on this case study?

Kyle Kettler

Management

You bet. What we did here was just to give you an example of the economics between us and our operated partners. We had some questions from investors over time on this one. The thrust of it is to show that while we do have some reversions in the reserve database, they are effectively not very punitive at all. They are relatively very small on a multiple-of-capital basis, and that is really what we are trying to achieve with this end-of-slide.

Jerry Giroux

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open. Please proceed with your question.

That is perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Noah Hungness with Bank of America. Your line is open. Please proceed with your question.

Noah Hungness

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open. Please proceed with your question.

Morning. For my first question, I was hoping you could touch on the opportunity set and the competitiveness you are seeing to add inventory. In 2025, you were able to add locations well below what we saw from going market price. How do you see those dynamics today?

Tyler Parkinson

Management

Good question. That opportunity still exists for us. Our operator teams are still executing on transactions that look exactly like that. We have roughly $25,000,000 of acquisition capital expenditures scheduled right now. That is basically what we have captured or have line of sight to now. If we wanted to continue to add inventory and increase that budget, that opportunity is still available to us. As I said in the remarks, that has been a very good opportunity for us over the past couple of years, and we see the operated partnership inventory captures having a number of years out in front of us. As far as the rest of deal flow, we have seen still very strong deal flow. I think we had a record last year on deal flow that we screened, and that is continuing. The distributed wellbore market is still very strong. We do not participate in that market very much. Returns there are not something that we would underwrite to, but that is a very strong market. The larger marketed packages are still out there with lots of divestiture targets from a lot of the consolidation. Again, we do not participate in that market either. Lastly, on some of the smaller marketed processes for non-op, we are seeing probably the least amount of deal flow and trending down. That has been a little bit weak, but that is not an area that we typically source opportunity from. Finally, in the Appalachia Utica Shale Basin, we are still seeing a ton of opportunity there. That is a traditional non-op play for us. We have been very successful over the past year and a half leasing there. We added probably another couple thousand net acres in the Utica play in Q4, and we are continuing to see lots of opportunity there.

Noah Hungness

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open. Please proceed with your question.

That is helpful color. And then for my second question, Tyler, could you talk about how we can think about the oil cadence through 2026? And then what does exit-to-exit production growth look like for oil?

Tyler Parkinson

Management

Sure. Exit-to-exit oil production growth is 12%. That is Q4 2025 to Q4 2026. Oil growth over the year will be down a little bit in the first half—low single-digit decline in Q1 and Q2—and then increasing in the second half. From Q4 to Q4, we expect 12% growth.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. That concludes the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great day.