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Granite Ridge Resources, Inc (GRNT)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 7, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to Granite Ridge Resources' Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to James Masters, Investor Relations representative for Granite Ridge.

James Masters

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Granite Ridge Resources. We will begin our call with comments from Tyler Farquharson, our President and Chief Executive Officer, who will review the quarter's results and company strategy. We will then turn the call over to Kim Weimer, our Interim Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer, who will review our financial results in greater detail. Tyler will then return to provide closing comments before we open the call for questions. Today's conference call contains certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied. We ask that you review the cautionary statement in our earnings release. Granite Ridge disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on these statements. These and other risks are described in yesterday's press release and our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also includes references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information reconciling these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available on our earnings release on our website. Finally, this call is being recorded, and a replay and transcript will be available on our website following today's call. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tyler.

Tyler Farquharson

Analyst

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate everyone joining us today for our third quarter 2025 earnings call. Our results this quarter once again highlight the strength of our business model, grounded in disciplined capital allocation, operational excellence and strong execution across our platform and operating partners. In the third quarter, average daily production increased 27% year-over-year to 31,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Adjusted EBITDAX rose 4% from the prior year period to $78.6 million. Capital expenditures totaled $80.5 million, consisting of $64 million in development and $16.5 million in acquisitions. We ended the quarter with a leverage ratio of 0.9x, well below our long-term target range of less than 1.25x. In addition, we continued our quarterly dividend of $0.11 per share, underscoring our commitment to a reliable, competitive return to our shareholders. Subsequent to quarter end, we enhanced our capital structure and liquidity position. Earlier this week, our lending group reaffirmed the $375 million borrowing base on our revolving credit facility, and we successfully issued $350 million of senior unsecured notes due 2029 with an 8.875% annual coupon. Together, these actions increased our pro forma liquidity to $422 million and further enhanced our flexibility to execute our business plan while preserving balance sheet strength. 2025 marks an important inflection point for Granite Ridge as we scale our operator partnership platform and further define our model as publicly traded private equity. Through these partnerships, we combine the control of an operator with the capital discipline of an investment firm, a framework that supports deliberate, cycle-resilient decisions around capital allocation and inventory selection. Year-to-date, approximately 50% of our capital spending has been deployed from these partnerships. We are particularly pleased with the success of Admiral Permian Resources, our largest and longest-standing operator partnership, which continues to set…

Kimberly Weimer

Analyst

Thank you, Tyler, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a brief overview of our financial results. Revenue for the third quarter was $112.7 million compared to $94.1 million in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDAX was $78.6 million, up 4% year-over-year. Net income was $14.5 million or $0.11 per diluted share, while adjusted net income was $11.8 million or $0.09 per diluted share. Operating cash flow before working capital changes totaled $73.1 million. On the cost side, LOE came in at $8.03 per BOE, higher than expected, primarily due to an increase in saltwater disposal, contract labor and other service costs in the Permian Basin. Production and ad valorem taxes were 6% of sales and G&A was $2.38 per BOE, consistent with our guidance range. Our disciplined capital allocation approach remains unchanged. For the quarter, total capital spending was $80.5 million, including $64 million of drilling and completion and $16.5 million of acquisitions. We continue to expect full year 2025 capital expenditures of $400 million to $420 million, of which $120 million is expected to be invested in 50 transactions that will add 75 net locations to Granite Ridge's inventory. Our development capital spend is allocated approximately 51% to operated partnerships and the balance to traditional non-op. As we look ahead to the fourth quarter and into 2026, we expect continued production growth from our operated partnerships as new wells come online. We are maintaining our full year production guidance of 31,000 to 33,000 BOE per day with oil expected to represent roughly 50% of the mix. Our balance sheet remains a source of strength, ending the quarter with net debt to EBITDAX of 0.9x, comfortably below our long-term target of 1.25x. We ended the quarter with $11.8 million of cash and $300 million drawn on our $375 million credit facility, resulting in liquidity of $86.5 million. As Tyler mentioned, we completed a $350 million issuance of senior unsecured notes due 2029 at an 8.875% coupon. This transaction strengthens our capital structure as we head into 2026 with net proceeds used to pay down the revolver and bolster cash on hand. On a pro forma basis at quarter end, our liquidity increased to $422 million. We continue to return meaningful cash to shareholders. Our $0.11 per share quarterly dividend remains a central component of our total return framework, equating to an annualized yield of approximately 8.3% at recent prices. With that, I'll hand it back to Tyler for closing comments.

Tyler Farquharson

Analyst

Thank you, Kim. To wrap up, the third quarter was another strong quarter for Granite Ridge, marked by continued operational outperformance, excellent execution across our operator partnerships led by Admiral Permian, robust cash generation and disciplined capital management and steady shareholder returns. We've built a model that combines growth, yield and flexibility, and it's working, delivering durable value for our shareholders through the cycle. Our business offers exposure to some of the best assets and operators in the country with downside protection through diversification, a robust hedge book and low leverage. Thank you to our employees, partners and investors for your continued support. With that, we're happy to take your questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Michael Scialla with Stephens.

Michael Scialla

Analyst

I want to see if you could talk a little bit more about your third and fourth partnerships. You said they're both moving strategic plans forward. Anything else you can tell us there in terms of what those plans might look like and where they are in terms of potentially drilling or adding acreage?

Tyler Farquharson

Analyst

Yes. So both of those partnerships are in aggregation mode right now. They're both Permian focused. One of the partnerships is focused on some of the emerging plays within the Permian and the other partnership is focused on the Midland Basin. I think that it will take them 6 or so months in order to aggregate what we like to see is about 18 months' worth of development in front of each one of those partnerships before we commit to running a rig full time on each one. So I'd expect for us to have a little bit of activity, development activity in 2026, if they continue to be successful on aggregating inventory here over the next handful of months. During the fourth quarter, we actually have some of the first transactions with one of those partnerships closing in the fourth quarter. So we'll get some inventory via one of those partners in the fourth quarter. And then the last partnership that we signed up isn't too far behind. So I wouldn't expect a ton of development activity from them in 2026 but it just depends on how successful they are in aggregating inventory.

Michael Scialla

Analyst

I appreciate that detail. And Tyler, you mentioned you would in a $55 or lower oil price environment, cut CapEx back to $225 million next year. Can you provide a little bit more detail on that? I assume most of the production would come out of the partnerships. Maybe how much flexibility you have there in lay down rigs and crews? And how would the mix change going forward in that scenario versus your traditional non-op position versus the partnerships?

Tyler Farquharson

Analyst

Yes. Yes, we'd expect to see coming out of the non-op portfolio, operators act rationally. So we'd expect to see a lot less inbound AFEs on the non-op piece. Then on the operated side, on the operated partnership side, we have full control over the timing and the development pace of those partnerships. And as we're starting to construct our '26 plan, we're building in tremendous flexibility there to be able to push some of that activity out if we do see a quarter or 2 worth of oil price in the low 50s. That's why we like the operated partnership so much is we do maintain that control over those partnerships to be able to construct a capital plan that kind of fits our needs as we -- if we end up experiencing some lower prices. In addition to the drilling side, I think what you'd probably see from us in that low price scenario, we pulled back on some drilling. And I think we'd actually probably reallocate those dollars to not only inventory acquisitions, but also potentially maybe some PDP style transactions as well.

Michael Scialla

Analyst

Okay. So not -- it sounds like not really a change in the mix between the traditional non-op and the partnerships but just both would be lower and less focus on drilling, more focus on acquisitions.

Tyler Farquharson

Analyst

Yes. I think we'd love to be more opportunistic on acquisitions in that price environment.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Annis with Texas Capital.

John Annis

Analyst · Texas Capital.

For my first one, understanding that there's lumpiness quarter-to-quarter and you haven't published guidance for next year, how should we think about the growth trajectory in the fourth quarter and into 2026 with Admiral running at full steam and Petro legacy ramping? And then is it fair to assume PLE's production shows up more towards the second quarter or midyear?

Tyler Farquharson

Analyst · Texas Capital.

Yes. I think on that last point on PLE, I think, yes, that is a midyear production contribution expectation for PLE. They're getting started drilling now. That will probably show up starting kind of late second quarter. On Admiral, they're running 2 rigs now. We expect that to continue through 2026. I think on the production cadence, you're right, we haven't guided to '26 yet. So we can't really speak a whole lot to '26. But on Q4 of '25, we do expect to see somewhere in the high single digits production growth from the third quarter to the fourth quarter.

John Annis

Analyst · Texas Capital.

Terrific. For my follow-up, can you talk about what you see as the ideal length of inventory that you would like to get to? And how do you weigh that with the commodity underwriting risk that comes with that longer-dated inventory?

Tyler Farquharson

Analyst · Texas Capital.

Yes. We actually love where we're at right now. Three to 5 years of inventory feels like the right amount of inventory for us. We're not interested in buying long-term inventory and having to warehouse that on the balance sheet for years 5 and beyond. I think having control over the operator partnerships gives us a lot more comfort in having 3 to 5 years' worth of inventory because it's actually controllable inventory now versus having to rely on non-op partners. So we're actually quite pleased with where we are on our inventory. I think if anything, maybe we could get some more durability on some inventory outside of the Permian Basin. But we're pleased with where we are overall, particularly with what we've established in the Permian.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Noah Hungness with Bank of America.

Noah Hungness

Analyst · Bank of America.

For my first question here, I wanted to touch on LOE. It was a little higher than we thought for the third quarter. Can you maybe just talk about how we should expect that to trend in 4Q and also for '26?

Kimberly Weimer

Analyst · Bank of America.

Sure. As our production has increased within the Permian Basin, roughly in Q3, about 77% of our oil production was from the Permian. Our saltwater disposal costs have increased. So on total have increased our LOE per BOE. So we would expect that we will be towards the higher end of guidance for 2025 on a full year basis.

Noah Hungness

Analyst · Bank of America.

And I guess, how can you think about it for '26, if you can?

Kimberly Weimer

Analyst · Bank of America.

Yes. Yes. We haven't guided towards '26 yet. We'll continue to look at our production expectations as we move into 2026 and working with our operated partners, what we can expect for that LOE per BOE going forward, and we'll guide to that at that time.

Noah Hungness

Analyst · Bank of America.

Great. And then for my second question here, it's really on Waha. I mean natural gas prices in Waha continue to be really weak. They look like they'll be weak basically until a lot of those pipes come on in second half '26. And then it looks like Waha basis gets really strong at or below basically transport costs out of basin. Do you guys have Waha hedges on today for second half '26 and beyond? And would you consider adding them or adding more to basically eliminate your Waha exposure given how strong the forward curve?

Kimberly Weimer

Analyst · Bank of America.

With regards to the first question, we do not currently have any basis hedges in place for our Waha exposure and going forward, have considered adding those, as you mentioned, for the strength of the curve going forward. So we will continue to look at that and evaluate that going forward.

Tyler Farquharson

Analyst · Bank of America.

Yes. Noah, there's -- we're also looking at other alternatives for our Permian gas. There's lots of gas to power projects out there that you've seen some other operators in the basin signing up or evaluating and that's also something that's on the table for us. We're looking at a few of those options now. We think that, that could also be a good solution for some of our Waha gas in addition to hedging some of the Waha exposure as well. So we're kind of looking at a solution for Waha gas a couple of different ways as we kind of move into next year.

Noah Hungness

Analyst · Bank of America.

I really appreciate that color. Just to kind of build off of that, if I could, how should we -- how could we think about the pricing for that? Is it power exposure? Is it a premium to Waha? Is it flat price?

Tyler Farquharson

Analyst · Bank of America.

It would be some power exposure that we'd realize as a premium to Waha.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Phillips Johnston with Capital One.

Phillips Johnston

Analyst · Capital One.

Thanks for the color on how production volumes could trend into Q4. I wanted to ask the same question on how CapEx should trend into Q4. If we look at what's implied for Q4 based on your unchanged guidance range, the potential range for Q4 is pretty wide at around $125 million to $150 million. So just wanted to know if we should be steering towards kind of the midpoint of that range or towards the low end or the high end.

Tyler Farquharson

Analyst · Capital One.

Yes. Yes. So we had some timing adjustments on the acquisitions. Our development capital actually came in where we thought it would be for the quarter. So we're not changing guidance for the full year. We still expect to close all the acquisitions that we outlined on our last call. for the year. So we just see that timing shifting into the fourth quarter. If I had to guess, I think that fourth quarter would be somewhere in the $125 million range with a big chunk of that being the remaining acquisitions that we're closing for the year.

Phillips Johnston

Analyst · Capital One.

Okay. Perfect. And then I appreciate the color on '26, and it's obviously early. But if we do assume current strip prices hold, how should we think about capital allocation for next year in terms of oil versus gas? Would you be inclined to kind of keep your investment mix roughly the same? Or would you sort of lean into gas a little bit more than you have?

Tyler Farquharson

Analyst · Capital One.

It's all returns driven, right? Where we're seeing the best opportunity now continues to be in the Permian. So I'd expect a very significant oil weighting. That being said, outside of the Permian, we are via the traditional non-op strategy, having a lot of success in Appalachia, and that's more rich condensate phase. We're -- we've been very successful this year on picking up a lot of inventory and acreage in that part of the play in Ohio. And we're starting to see AFEs come in. We actually have a handful of pads already online in Ohio, and I would expect to see additional capital being spent up there on both acquisition front and drilling and development as we go into '26.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.