John A. Olin - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Management
Yeah. So, when we look at the overall drop in operating margin of 2 percentage points, right, we were at 18% to 19% and we're dropped at 16% to 17%, and there's a couple of drivers of that. And one is the absorption on 11,000 units, which certainly affects our gross margin. Having said that, Craig, our gross margin, we still expect to be up on a year-over-year basis. And I can't stress enough how important that is and how powerful the margin structure is at Harley-Davidson. So, you look at gross margin, we're going to have well over $100 million hit in currency, which is three-quarters of a percentage point. We're going to have unfavorable mix as we invest in an incredibly powerful product such as Street. And we've also – we'll have lower year-over-year production, and therefore, a headwind on production and yet still our gross margin is going to grow in 2015. And that's driven by the ability to price our products and incredible productivities that we're driving out of the plants. So, that will stay with us in 2015 and 2016 as we go forward. Also affecting operating margin this year is higher non-repeating SG&A expenses. So, what we've got is three SG&A expenses that are affecting our overall guidance for the remainder of this year. One is the one-time expenses of $30 million to $35 million. And this is money spent already as for that new investment profile to significantly increase our investment and demand-driving activities into 2016 and beyond. The second is incorporation of Canada in the guidance. Remember, we didn't have that in our guidance after the second quarter. And we talked about that being $0.04 dilutive. Well, that's all coming in the form of higher SG&A as we transition that business and size it appropriately size it to gain the synergies out of us managing that market. And then the third piece of it is certainly unanticipated recall expense of $15 million in the third quarter. So, you take the lower absorption and the SG&A, that's what's driving our gross margins to be down. So, to answer your question, Craig, is the gross margin is incredibly strong and powerful, and that will continue to move into next year. We will have some headwinds on currency in 2016. But overall, very strong gross margin. And these things that we're talking about affecting operating margin are all non-repeating items.