John A. Olin - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Management
Okay. With regards to industry retail sales, Joe, we do not provide a forward-looking forecast for that. Certainly, we see more caution, just given the overall macroeconomic trends, but we don't provide a forecast. We can say that over the last five years the industry has grown pretty steady at about 3%. This year was no different. Overall, industry was up 4.8%, but when you remove autocycles, which we don't believe competes with the traditional motorcycle segment, the industry was up about 2.8%. So, this year was right in line with the previous three years. What I can say is, is that as we enter into 2016, we would expect the first quarter or two the industry to be down as they lap or our competitors lap the kind of the growth that they experienced early on in the discounting cycle, and some of the pull forward volumes that they enjoyed. This year, the industry growth was driven by the front half and again, the pull forward of volume into the first couple quarters. But, overall, we're in an environment that we believe we can grow our worldwide shipments by 1% to 3%, but I'm not going to provide a number on the industry. The second question was on CapEx. Our CapEx guidance for this year is $255 million to $275 million. The actual CapEx during the year was $260 million, and as you noted, Joe, was up a bit and that is driven by two things. One is new product development. We've talked about that a quarter ago, that we're increasing our new product spending, which hits SG&A, the expense side of it, by 35%. Well, there's certainly a corresponding part of that for us to develop those motorcycles, a fair amount of capital that goes into that, and you're seeing that reflected in our guidance. And then secondly, as we continue to extend our ERP solution, we're moving it to Kansas City. We're very excited about that. If you remember, about three years ago, we put a system in York and it has done a fantastic job for us in terms of helping drive sustainable productivity. So that is another big area of capital spending this year. So on some of these things you're going to see from year-to-year capital go up and down depending on what we might be working on in terms of systems upgrades or new product development. But we're not going to provide a long-term view of overall capital.