Peter Huntsman
Analyst · Wells Fargo.
Mike, I would -- yes, well, thank you very much. I think that we are in the first quarter kind of where we expect it to be. And I would think that the second half has the potential to be just as strong, perhaps even better than the first half. Now I say that with an enormous caveat, and we pointed this out a couple of times in the call. My short term, my biggest concern is around overall demand. I think that we've done an excellent job in the last couple of quarters being able to push through price increases. And just as we said in the first quarter, we pushed through a $0.25 billion of price increases, not only achieving that increase, but also expanding margins. We saw EBITDA margins on a cent per pound basis go up across the board, again, even after absorbing an enormous amount of raw material inflation of around $375 million -- the $250 million, I'm sorry, that was just in polyurethanes alone. $375 million was for the entire company. As I see the biggest headwinds going into the second half, and again, given what the actions of Russia and in other areas of the economy, these are all subject to change in about 10 minutes from now. But my biggest concern is around overall demand. We may be able to maintain margins. We may be able to push through pricing. We may be able to even expand on margins. But if the overall demand -- the overall tonnage that we're able to sell drops, that would be my biggest concern. And I think short term, the -- what we're seeing in China with the lockdowns if we continue to see the impact of the lockdowns as of today that we're seeing, that will have an impact on our business of upwards around $20 million a month. Again, I believe that when China reopens and when these lockdowns are lifted, I think that we earn that back. I think that you're going to see margins in pricing and demand will boomerang back very quickly. But how long this lasts and if it has the potential to spread to other regions and other metropolitan areas, that's yet to be seen. But that would be my biggest near-term impact on the business to be kind of what's happening in China. Longer term in the second half would be overall demand -- slowdown in demand would impact. There might be with higher interest rates and mortgages and so forth. But fundamentally, when I look at margins, when I look at new applications, when I look at upgrading customers, when I look at cost efficiencies and so forth, I remain quite optimistic for the second half of the year.