Craig Martin
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. On Slide 7 now, which is titled Strategies for Growth. These are the same strategies we talk about in these conference calls every quarter; nothing about them has changed. I'm going to talk about 4 of them in a little more detail. Our business model, our market diversity, our multi-domestic strategy and acquisitions, but I don't want to miss the point about driving down costs. We continue to be in a very competitive market. A number of our competitors are by no means full up in their shops. Cost pressures continue to be high, and we're continuing to aggressively market work to grow our share. The good news is we are able to get our G&As down, and so our cost posture continues to improve as we go forward through the years. It's a good new position for us to be in. Moving on now to Slide 8, our relationship-based business model. I won't spend a lot of time on this slide. I think most of you have heard this story many times. The slide compares our business model with the industry model on the right. And let me take a minute to talk about the industry model first. It tends to be focused on transactional projects. Those are the big events, the lump-sum turnkeys. For the most part, it is truly global competition-based. So the competitors include: the Japanese, the Koreans, the Chinese; it's a large market with very fierce competition for big events. When you contrast that with our approach, our approach is very much based on preferred relationships. It is a repeat-business-focused model. We're about 93.5% repeat business this last quarter. So that is indicative of how the business is functioning. About 80%, 75% to 80% of our business comes from preferred relationships. The rest comes from discrete projects and a very, very small slice of the transactional projects. I think it is the ideal business model for the market that we are entering. There's a lot more activity in the market now. It tends to be smaller projects rather than big events. And it tends to be alliance and efficiency-focused in terms of delivery, and those things play well for Jacobs' business model. I had an interesting meeting with one of our customers last week, the COO. This customer said, "What we find interesting about Jacobs is that your competitors are only interested in our big projects. You're interested in our whole business." And I think that quote really does a good job of summarizing the difference between our business model and some of our main competitors. Moving on now to Slide 9. This is our pie chart with all of the markets in it. I will try to talk a little bit about each market and give you a sense of how we feel about those markets going forward. I'll start at the top with the PharmaBio business. We are, and continue to be, sort of the last man standing in the PharmaBio business. It's a very good business for us. And we clearly have a dominant position in the marketplace. There is a lot of activity picking up in PharmaBio. There's a fair amount of pent-up demand that's sort of post-merger. Our main customers have been looking at merger activities and consolidation and rationalization and achieving all of the synergies that they promised the marketplace. And that's left the capital projects business a little bit behind the curve, so to speak. So we expect to see, and are seeing, a lot more activity in the PharmaBio market than we've seen in the last couple of years. It's interesting also that our customers are focusing more on buying IP rather than trying to develop it, buying intellectual property, their products. That's good news for us because it tends to drive manufacturing on a much more rapid basis. The needs are more immediate. And that's particularly true right now in the insulin and oncology drugs business. And of course, PharmaBio tracks the GDP to some extent. And certainly, with the GDP improving, we see some improvements in PharmaBio there as well. So good market, and one we think has good promise for the next year or two. Moving on around to Chemicals. Chemicals is a surprisingly robust market. There's a lot of activity out there. It's the best we've seen in a decade at least. Plenty of activity derived from lower-cost feedstocks and the natural gas liquids, a by-product of all the gas extraction in places like the U.S. There's a lot of NGLs and a very low gas price. My customers are, at least the ones I've talked to recently, are pretty positive about that. One of the customers said they believe that the advantage that gas prices are giving in the U.S. is structural, and they have significant plans for investments in the U.S. So that's a good news story. It would be very positive for us going forward. When you go outside the U.S., there's a lot of downstream projects. Downstream, by that I mean downstream of the ethylene, polypropylene. A lot of activity related to automotives, for example, and paints, plastics, polymers, refrigerants, and then we continue to see a lot of major activity in the polysilicon world. So that business, the Chemicals business, is quite good for us. We're also surprisingly strong in alliances right now. A number of our customers are out getting alliance relationships established. And we're pretty excited about that because that again plays to our strength. Moving on to Oil & Gas Upstream. It's a robust business globally. Oil price is $112, is what I saw this morning on the ticker. It drives a lot of investment at that kind of price. And there's a lot of needs for that investment because there's a lot of replacement to do. For us, that means the Oil Sands remain very, very strong. I still, the FEEDs sort of business, early design at this point. And the competition up in Canada is still pretty hungry. So the margins are still tight. But the business is growing rapidly, and we've gotten in early, we've gotten a lot of work. Our business is very robust right now. And it looks like it's going to continue to be so. On the gas side, the oil & gas. There are opportunities around, the increase around the world. This is a strength for Jacobs. We have a pretty good gas credentials, and we continue to profit from that business both here in North America, with the shale gas side and in the Middle East. In oil productions, an area of opportunity where we still are not as strong as some of our competition, and we're looking at ways to strengthen our capability on the oil production side. We think that could drive some additional growth. So oil and gas market looks quite good. It's another great opportunity for Jacobs where we have small share in a large market. Moving on to Refining, the downstream business. We don't expect to see any grassroots projects of any major size in the U.S. or Europe. The major investments will go to the Middle East. As you know, we announced the award of the GES plus contract to Jacobs. That's a huge win for us and represents an enormous opportunity for growth in our Middle East operations. And all of that will be in the Refining business and in the Upstream Oil and Gas business. So that's good news, actually, for both these markets. There are a lot of small to medium projects in the refining world right now. And they're all over place, and so that's another area of focus for us in terms of where we see things going. Again, refining is probably not as strong a market as the first -- the previous 2, chemicals and oil and gas, but it's clearly better today than it was a year ago. And looks like it's going to continue to get better for a while. Moving now down to Other. That sort of catch-all category. This is pulp and paper, power, high-tech, food and consumer products. That's a pretty good business in lots of ways right now. The Power business is relatively robust in -- outside the U.S. The problems in Japan did not seem to have negatively affected nuclear investment outside the U.S. as much as we thought it might. So that's good news because that's really one of the places where we're active. Pulp and paper market is about as good as it has ever been, certainly the best it's been in a decade or so. We're seeing a lot of opportunities for food and consumer product alliances. And there's been a resurgence of the high-tech business for us. In particular, 1 customer has some very major expansion plans. It looks like we'll be able to be part of that customer's expansion going forward. Moving now to the bottom of the pie, Mining & Mineral. You see that's a little 2% segment. It's a small percentage right now because it represents 2 months of the acquisition plus Jacobs' normal Mining & Minerals business combined. So it's 6 months of Jacobs -- or a year of Jacobs and 2 months of Aker, I think is correct. It's a very strong market for us. We see lots of opportunity here. The main players in the mining and minerals market had a $66 billion CapEx program for next year. In addition to that, we're seeing lots of activity in the sustaining capital and maintenance arena, so both of those are real positives for us. And we're looking to see robust growth in the Mining & Minerals business, partly because we'll get more -- a full year in there eventually. But because mostly, we see a really good, strong market going forward. Now we'll move around the clock of the markets that have a little more uncertainty in them. Let me start with the Infrastructure. It's a little bit more uncertain than the markets I just talked about. The business is fairly weak in the highways arena. It's stronger in rail and air. A lot of what's going to happen in Infrastructure is going to be a function of what happens to user fees. So user fees will be a key aspect of investment. If you look at things like vehicle-miles traveled in the Infrastructure business, they're down about 2.5% over their peak. So there is a shortfall in the user fees related to the highway infrastructure or transportation infrastructure business. But not as severe as we might otherwise believe listening to the state budget issues. It just does create some uncertainty. There's also going to be a lot of activity in the project finance and in the Public Private Partnerships. The Water business, which is the other aspect of infrastructure for us, is good. It's growing nicely. It is largely driven by user fees and hasn't seen the downturn to the same extent that the other state budgets and local budgets had. It's largely a local business. So we think that's going to be good business for us. Those are mostly characterization of the U.S. market. We're also a big player in the U.K. market. The situation there is a little different. The U.K. market is clearly more mature. They're further down the road of dealing with their budget shortfalls. We've positioned very well in the parts of the market where user fees drive investments. And I'm very optimistic that our U.K. market position will only improve as we go forward. Although I think it will improve gradually. Moving on now to Buildings. Remember, this is a Technical Buildings business, so it's more about buildings that have a high-technical content inside than what's on the outside. It's not commercial buildings. It's not office buildings. It's not multi-family housing. It's the mission command centers, healthcare facilities, schools, jails, hospitals, that kind of work is what drives our technical buildings. It is affected by what's happening in public-sector spending in both the U.S. and Europe. But our segment of the business is probably not affected quite as much as the buildings market generally. Certainly, not having a commercial market focus has been a positive for us. The good markets, the K-12 business, the Healthcare business, the mission-critical facilities, things like data centers, remain very robust in that marketplace. And we see huge opportunities in the buildings marketplace in the Middle East. So we think there's another great growth opportunity there. So not a bad business, just maybe not quite as robust as we'd like it to be. And now the national governments, 2 sections to our national government business. 1 is the Aerospace and Defense side, the Research and Development, Test Engineering, the Scientific and Technical Services end. The other is environmental management, environmental radiation, sustainability kinds of activities. Let me take the Aerospace and Defense piece first. It is a huge market, but there is considerable uncertainty – well, considerable is an exaggeration. There is some uncertainty, significant uncertainty, about how much money is going to be spent and where. There are areas where we're pretty confident things are going to be strong. IT is going to be strong. And actually, as we look at our proposal portfolio, our proposal portfolio looks pretty good. But I think in looking at that part of the federal business, it's going to be a game of trying to take market share from our competition. I believe we're pretty good at that, so I'm not real pessimistic about our position in this market. I'm looking to see us grow, but maybe not at the same rates we've been growing the last few years. Another area of uncertainty is what's going to happen with NASA. But so far, where we are on NASA, it looks like it's about neutral to us going forward. We'll see how things unfold as we get further down the road in the budget cycle. An awful lot of this is going to remain uncertain until after the 2012 election. Moving on now to environmental remediation and sustainability. Let me start with the U.K. there. The work that the nuclear decommissioning agency is doing continues to grow. Their budgets stayed up through the resolution. And we're a stronger player in that market now with the addition of Aker. Between the two of us, we have a very, very strong position in the nuclear remediation, nuclear cleanup market in the U.K. So that business looks pretty good to us. The U.S. market is pretty flat. We don't see a lot of new investment in the U.S. market, but I think we do see some pretty good opportunities for us as a company. So we think there's going to be some opportunities for modest growth in that area. Overall, if you look at the markets, the national governments business is probably the area where we have the most discomfort. I think it'll be an okay business, but I don't think it's going to be as robust as it's been in the past, at least not for a little while. Moving on now to Slide 10, geographic diversity. As you can see, we've, over the last few years, managed to get a pretty broad geographic diversity, particularly now with the addition of Aker. And we're going to continue to focus on expanding our geographic diversity based on where our customers are going with their money. So in addition to the places where we are, we see some significant opportunity in Brazil. We see some opportunity in Oman, and some in the ASEAN countries. As you know, we've announced a mining project in Lao -- I mean in Vietnam, and we expect that we'll be doing a bunch of consumer-related projects in the ASEAN countries, particularly in Vietnam as well. Obviously, we're also continuing to focus on expanding our existing businesses. Our basic principle is get into the market, get established, and then sell other services to our customers in those marketplaces to allow us to grow. Moving on now to Slide 11. This is our acquisitions slide. You see we've got quite a stack of stuff at the top right of that slide that we've done in the last little bit. This continues to be very good area for us. There are lots of interesting acquisitions out there at prices that make good sense from our perspective. The Aerospace and Defense arena, the uncertainty about the markets is driving some fairly attractive pricing in companies in that business. And we think there's some opportunities there. Infrastructure and Buildings business also has some opportunities for the same reason. We think there's some opportunity to expand our Mining and Minerals portfolio, and there are some opportunities out there to do that. In terms of geographies, Asia is certainly very interesting, South America, China, plus we'll continue to do the niche deals that we've always done to augment our capabilities, and expand our resource base in countries where we're already established. So I think the acquisition activity will continue to be good. We've got good, solid cash flow to fund that acquisition activity. And I think we can continue to add to our earnings growth in the long run through those acquisitions. Just going to Slide 12 now, which is our standard sort of commercial advertising. We do think there's a lot of reasons to feel positive about Jacobs right now. Our customer-driven business model is absolutely in its sweet spot. We're continuing to be able to diversify across markets, geographies and services. We've got a solid data feed to help us drive acquisitions. So we don't think -- there's no reason to think that we can't continue to grow at a 15% compound on the EPS line as we go forward. And with that, I think we are ready to turn it over to questions.