Craig Martin
Analyst · KeyBanc
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to start with Slide 7, our strategies for growth. They're the same 5 strategies we've always had. And I'm going to spend a little more time on the top 3 and the bottom ones, so let me just comment here on the fourth bullet, drive down costs continuously. As we sit here today, competition in many of our businesses remains pretty intense. Many of our competitors are not full and there's -- price is still a factor in many competitions. And price is more of a factor today in the public sector markets that they have been, but there is a bit of good news. It appears that unit margins are starting to improve particularly in the private sector. We'll see if that really reconstitutes a trend, but at least you can say with some comfort they're not getting worse, at least they don't appear to be. So that is a positive, and it's a positive for our position in terms of having a good solid cost position and being able to be competitive. Turning now to Slide 8. I want to talk about our relationship-based business model, and I'll talk first about the industry model on the right. This continues to be sort of our idealized view of our competitors who are largely focused on big events in faraway places on lump-sum turnkey competitions and they compete globally. So their competition not only includes U.S. and European companies but the French, the Chinese, the Japanese, a broad slate of competitors on these transactional projects. That results in pretty aggressive pricing and some other challenges, and it's a business that we think is fraught with risk and doesn't represent the reward that we would like to see for it. Everybody in the business has a set of customers that are relationship-based and they do a bunch of discrete projects as well. But if you look at our model on the left, you'll see that our model is almost the reverse of what we think most of our competitors focus on. Our focus is on preferred relationships and repeat business. In quarter 3, 92.5% of our business was repeat business, work for customers that we've worked for in the past year. 80% roughly of that business came from these preferred relationships, and slightly less than 50% of our business came from a very limited set of core clients. We think that is a strong business model going forward. The big spend will come from these preferred relationships and these core clients as they move ahead, and we'll be able to work with those clients on an alliance and relationship basis that very significantly reduces our risk as we go ahead. We think the model has a lot of strengths compared to the industry model in the long run. Turning now to Slide 9, I'll just kind of go around the wheel here and talk about a little bit about what's going on in each of our markets. Let me start at the top right with the Chemicals business. Chemicals is a very robust business right now. It seems to be driven by a low and budgeted feedstock and by a desire of a lot of our customers to convert lower-value products into higher-value ones. Activities are very high in the Gulf Coast, in the Middle East and in Asia, and the focus seems to be on what I'll characterize as high-value chemicals. That plays directly to our Jacobs' strengths in the Chemicals business both from a know-how and a technology point of view. Alliances continue to be key and we continue to find opportunities to enter into large long-term alliances with our customers. As you can see, the business is up quarter-over-quarter by a nice amount. I happen to run across a statistic that I was proud of, and I thus thought I'd mentioned. Out of the last 49 competitions in the chemicals industry, Jacobs won 35 of those. So we had a 71% win rate of the jobs we chase, and I think that's a nice kudo to our sales team. Moving on around to oil and gas, the Upstream business. It's a very robust business. It continues to be very robust. The oil sands are very strong. What I like about what we see in the oil sands is 2 things. We continue to see more FEED work coming from our customers as they look at new projects, but we're also starting to see projects moving toward the execution phase, lots of discussions about detail engineering, construction at this stage. And it looks to me like those things will be moving ahead pretty much on the timeline that we've discussed. So we ought to start to see some pickup in detail design and construction as we go into the next couple of 3 quarters. Gas projects are also big. That's a strength for Jacobs. Onshore gas is something we know a lot about and have a lot of experience with. Now that continues to be an area where we think we'll be doing -- going well going forward. The weakness we have in this market still remains on the oil production side. We'll talk a little bit about what we're trying to do in that regard as we move ahead in the acquisition discussion. Moving on now to the Refining business. Major investments in the Middle East and we're right in the middle of those. Lots of small-cap activity everywhere. In addition, of course, the GES plus contract, which covers both oil and gas, refining -- and refining is just getting started. It looks like the scope for Jacobs will be an investment cost in the multibillion-dollar range. So we see that as a very positive thing for us going forward. Refining Gulf Coast margins in refining are quite good. Now that's also a plus for us and will support a small-cap, sort of the minus $200 million project range as we go forward. So we see refining as coming back at least for us as a positive not only in the Middle East but around the world. Moving on now to the other category. It's really unfair to call it other, but we got to group it somehow. That's power, pulp and paper, the high-tech business, food and consumer products. A lot of strength in these markets individually. Pulp and paper is quite strong. There's been a fair amount of consolidation in the industry. It makes for stronger customers who are now making investments, and it's driving projects pretty significantly. Aker broadens our base of delivery for the pulp and paper industry, which I think is another positive. Food and consumer products is also very good. We continue to see opportunities for major alliances with customers in that industry on a global basis, and we see that as a long-term opportunity as we go forward. You saw our Unilever alliance announcement here about -- actually Unilever made the announcement themselves maybe about 4 months ago. That's typical of the kind of thing we're seeing and the opportunity that it represents. And then we're seeing a lot of activity in the high-tech industry as well for a few key customers. We're pretty positive about what that means in terms of business, and we'll see how that goes going forward. But again, investment seems to be coming back in that regard. Moving now to the bottom of the pie, Mining and Minerals. This represents 5 months of the Aker acquisition coupled with Jacobs' historic Mining and Minerals business. So it's a growing business as we add a full year worth of data to the number, very, very strong markets. Investment levels are $60-plus billion a year, and we still have a very small share, relatively speaking, of that market, so there's tremendous opportunity for us to grow. We think we're going to see a terrific position there, particularly in some of the geographies that are new to Jacobs through the Aker acquisition. Moving now to PharmaBio. We tended to be the sort of the last man standing in the domestic market in North America. That's a positive for us. There really isn't the level of competition that there once was in that industry. And so we're benefiting from that quite clearly. We're also benefiting from the consolidation that's taking place in the industry. There's been a fair amount of rationalization going on, and customers are spending money to get the best possible effect of their product portfolio. Still a lot of activity in vaccines along with some activity in things like insulin and oncology drugs; in some cases, drugs that our big customers are acquiring from smaller companies and then implementing very fairly quickly. So we think the pharma business is going to be good. And again, it's a market where we have a greater ability now to serve our customers in some new geographies. That pretty much deals with the private sector. Let's switch now to the public sector markets and we'll start with infrastructure. The infrastructure market is a huge market globally and one where Jacobs still has an insignificant market share, so there's a lot of opportunity for growth. We look at that market right now, things like rail, airports, air transportation, water and wastewater, all very good. Now the Highway business is a little weaker in the developed countries, but still there's a lot of opportunity in the developing world on that side. User fees seem to be driving a lot of projects, so where -- but the money for projects comes from user fees rather than taxes. We're seeing lots of good project flow. There's also a lot of money now starting to show up from private sources like private public partnerships and private finance initiatives. We're also seeing a fair amount of design build work. All of that's good for Jacobs in the context that it is not only a business we're good at, but it's one that has some price sensitivity in it. And obviously, Jacobs is able to compete in those markets at a very, very attractive price ratio compared to some of our established competitors. The international opportunities infrastructure also very exciting. The CES acquisition is driving a lot of opportunity, and we see tremendous opportunity in the Middle East. Moving on now to the Buildings business. Remember that for Jacobs, this is technical buildings so it's things where the complexities of what's inside the building are what drives the project. Several of those markets remained quite strong. Mission-critical facilities, that's things like data centers and security centers, healthcare facilities, hospitals and related facilities, are both quite strong and those are particular strengths of Jacobs, so this is a pretty positive market for us in that regard. The Education business is also strong surprisingly, and we're taking advantage of that in a number of different ways. The weak markets in the Buildings business tend not to be the ones that we focus in. This is another area where we're seeing a lot of international opportunity in particular, in the Middle East, and we think we'll be able to capitalize on some of that opportunity as we go forward. Now turning finally to our National Government business. You'll recall that business really has 2 parts. The first part is the environmental remediation and cleanup, that sort of thing. It's a good market in the U.S. but flat. There are a fair number of recompetes going on out there, and also, there's a fair number of contracts that are what's called MATOC, that means Multiple Award Task Order Contract. The good news for Multiple Award Task Order Contracts is that they tend to again allow a little more price competition in the scheme of things, and they let us penetrate customers and locations where we might otherwise not be able to compete on a historic basis. So I think it creates some opportunities for us that we haven't had before in that market. In addition, the U.K. investment in nuclear cleanup, in particular, continues to be very strong and we continue to benefit from that business very nicely. So that's -- all in all, that's a positive. On the other side of the market, this is our RDT&E, research, development, test, engineering; SETS, scientific engineering and technical services and IT business. Again, what's interesting about that market is an increasing opportunity set as a result of converting a lot of contracts to these MATOCs, and that means we have the opportunity to compete for more work in more locations. We think we'll be able to leverage that into a bigger share and that would help sustain our growth in what's otherwise not going to be a very growing market. Now I set aside IT from that. I think IT business will see continuing growth and that will be an opportunity both to take share and expand as a result of the growth in the market. NASA continues to be a little bit of a cloudy spot. It's certainly not clear what's going to happen there. However, directionally, it seems to be going positively for us. I think I'm certainly more optimistic today than I was last quarter about what's going to happen in NASA. So I think we're going to see some improvements for us, but it will be a challenge. And then we think defense spending is going to be relatively flat. But again, because of this move to the MATOC style contract, I think we can benefit by taking share. So that's pretty much how we see the markets around the world. Flipping now to Slide 10. In terms of geographic diversity, you can see that we have managed to diversify the company geographically pretty broadly, and there are fair activity in all these markets that I think is interesting for us. Certainly, in North America, we see a lot of activity in oil and gas, chemicals, pharma, selected infrastructure markets and the IT world. We also see a fair amount of activity in what we've characterized as others, so that's that pulp and paper, food and consumer products, all of that. South America is pretty much a mining opportunity for us. In Europe, we see a lot of activity in pharma, chemicals, nuclear and defense are all good businesses for us as we go forward. Moving on across now to the Middle East, that's pretty much everything except aerospace and defense. I mean it's just a robust market for almost anything you can think of. In India, we see infrastructure, chemicals, refining and oil and gas as fairly strong markets. In China, it's buildings, chemicals and pharmaceutical. And in Australia, it's largely a mining play today. But as we go across the globe, there's a tremendous amount of activity and opportunity in our geographic markets. Turning now to Slide 11, growth through acquisition. We just looked at the last few years, last couple of years worth of acquisitions and kind of gave you a sense of what they were and what they were about. You can see clearly that our focus has been to grow outside the U.S. for the most part and to target sort of key markets, key places where we can expand the business in the U.S. As we go forward, we're looking at geographies like China, Australia, Brazil, the Asian countries and then of course, we'll continue to look at niche opportunities in our established markets. In terms of the kinds of geographic or customer markets we mean, oil and gas, mining, IT services and power are all areas of interest to us. So when you sum it all up, turning to the commercial on Slide 12, we think we've got a great business model. We've got great and increasing diversification in every regard, markets, geographies, services. The balance sheet's solid. We continue to believe that we can grow 15% on a compound basis forevermore, so that's a positive. We had a good set of sales quarters, 4 in a row now. They are sort of record levels for the last 2 or 3 years, and we're feeling pretty positive about what's going forward, but with the obvious cautions that it's not all roses out there just yet. And with that, I'll turn it over to Sue for questions.