Craig L. Martin
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. We're now on Slide 7, where we talk about our growth strategy. I think you've all seen this slide many times in the past. I'm going to talk about each of the first 4 bullets individually. So I'll talk about our business model, our diversity, our geographic presence as a part of that discussion and where we're going with acquisitions and maybe take a minute or 2 talking about where we've been. And then also wanted to mention the cost situation because we continue to have what I consider to be excellent cost control in the organization right now. Our folks are doing a very good job of keeping their costs down. And considering that we've had some project activity moving to the right, the fact that we've kept our cost posture down, I think, positions us very well for the competitive scenarios that may be out there as we look forward. So I think that's going to be another positive for Jacobs as we look ahead. Moving on now to Slide 8. This is our relationship-based business model. It is essentially what I think of as a virtuous circle. We have this long-term relationship approach to our clients. It builds trust, allows us to improve our deliveries to customer and adds superior value. As a result, they have high repurchase loyalty that drives our growth, lowers our costs, limits our risk, all that being steady earnings growth, which we can then reinvest to build those relationships. And all in all, I think that just continues to be a positive for us as a company. I'll point out a few things that have happened in the quarter that I think reinforce that. But I would mention, at this point, that our repeat business for the fourth quarter of '13 was 94.1%, so really, really solid repeat business once again for the company. Turning now to Slide 9. You can kind of see how our business breaks down by the end markets. Not a lot of news here. A slight increase in the amount of business from the process side, and on the industrial side, a little decrease on public and institutional, which I think is consistent with the conversation that John just had. As we look forward, I think the outlook for this business is pretty good, and I'll talk about each of these areas of our business individually. So now turning to Slide 10. This is the public and institutional areas of our market. Starting first with national government. In spite of what is a very difficult environment out there, I think we're doing quite well. We had 8 awards in the quarter that certainly drove a positive outcome. We see a lot of activity in the defense sector in the U.K., particularly in areas like land systems. And of course, in our environmental cleanup business, there are still lots of opportunity there as well. So while the outlook, I think, from you all about the national government market is more negative, our outlook is not that negative. Certainly, there are challenges. We had one of those with the shutdown earlier this year, but I think the overall outlook is that we're going to be able to continue to build a stable and growing business, although not by huge margins just on virtue of our great performance and our low cost. When you look at the infrastructure business, that's just a terrific business, short term and long term. We think it's going to be a strong market for us in the coming year. It certainly seems to be strong right now. There's a lot of investment out there that's required to sustain that business. And it seems to be strong geographically almost everywhere we are, so strong in the U.S. and the U.K., strong in Hong Kong, strong in Australia, particularly important, if the SKM deal goes through. And then the Middle East is a big positive for us right now. We've won a bunch of work there. I think we announced the Qatar rail job during the quarter. We think that's going to represent a really nice growth market for the company and the infrastructure business. And then, of course, we are applying our infrastructure business to other markets and doing so quite successfully. You might also note the growth in the telecommunications business, another place where we announced an acquisition in this last quarter. And I'll talk about acquisitions again in a little bit. On the building side, things are looking better. We continue to become the most significant player in the whole mission-critical technical facilities, arena. Things like data centers are a great strength, and that's a business that's projected to triple in the next 5 years. We see that market going to something like $80 billion. So the services part of that is still very attractive opportunity for us to grow. We see growing opportunities in the health care arena, as well as in education. And we've done a nice job of diversifying our business in the buildings arena away from the federal sector, so that's a positive as well. Buildings is another area where there's very significant growth in the Middle East, and that's exciting for us because that's, essentially, an untapped market for Jacobs. I think we'll see some nice growth from that as well. When you look at the backlog for this set of markets, you can see we had excellent back growth -- backlog growth. We had a new record backlog in this sector for the fourth quarter of '13 at $8.1 billion. I think it's -- we're doing quite well in what many people think is a difficult market. Moving on now to Slide 11. This is the industrial markets. Let me start with pharmabio. It is getting better. The product pipeline is a bit mixed, but there is capital investment, particularly in the biotech world. We're seeing lots of investments in India and Asia. The India markets are projected to grow pretty significantly, and our global reach and innovation is really a key issue for our clients. I don't expect to see a lot of pharma business in places like the U.S. or Europe, but I do expect to see significant growth elsewhere. And our capability in this market, coupled with our geographic reach, is key to our ability to continue to grow in the pharma space. Mining and minerals is growing for us. We've said that it would and it continues to do so. We're particularly successful lately in doing what we said we would do here, which is start to take sustaining capital work and get the kind of money that the customers are going to spend moving toward Jacobs. I would point out the announced win with Codelco in Chile, which is a small and sustaining capital win, is a really good example of where we're going in that business right now and where we're going to be able to find growth that may elude some of our competitors. I think the greenfield business is still going to be weak, so it really is going to be a services-based market rather than a big EPC market for the next little bit. And that explains part of why the overall backlog declined a little. Moving down to the sort of other categories, so power, pulp and paper, high tech, food and consumer products. We characterize that as mixed, although we did get pretty good revenue growth in this area from a quarter-over-quarter basis for the trailing 12, so that's a positive. We have a lot of nice alliance relationships with our customers, and there is decent capital spending in these markets. We're growing our share of power in particular, and I'm pretty pleased with the progress we're making. It's just, geographically, not as broad as we'd like it to be. In a way, it's a pretty significant work off in the high tech arena, and that also impacted backlog, as we haven't been able to replace that EPC work at this point in time. But overall, the industrial business actually looks okay for us as we go forward, and I think our penetration of that small-cap mining and minerals will be key to what is a good outcome in industrial. Moving on now to the heavy process business, so this is Slide 12. Refining is strong. We've done extremely well in the refining sector. There's a lot of activity in low-sulfur gasoline with so-called Tier 3. Some 85 refineries are affected, and the project sizes are in the $200 million plus or minus range. That's an ideal spot for Jacobs. So I think we're going to continue to do very well there. There still are some CapEx in crude slate change projects, as well as a few safety-related projects out there. So all in all, the refining business looks like it's going to be better than we expected, say, a year ago as we look forward. On the oil and gas side, that market remains very strong. It is a global market. We're still a very small player in that market, but I think we're going to see an increasing amount of work for Jacobs as we start to take share. Our upstream units are doing quite well in terms of taking on new work and successfully completing that work, which is a key lever to expanding our share of those customers' wallet. And we see a lot of activity, a lot of significant opportunities or big project opportunities now in the Middle East and in Australia, as well as in the unconventional gas in the U.S. And then, finally, looking to the chemicals business, also a very strong market. We see a lot of activity there. The whole process arena is one that excites us a bunch, and the chemical is probably the strongest single piece of that. Tremendous amount of FEED and pre-FEED work in-house as we speak. So I think we'll see very strong growth there. We also see strong growth in Asia and in the Middle East. So the process markets for Jacobs look like they'll be a real positive. The backlogs tend to be a little lumpy, and so you can see our quarter-over-quarter backlog, there was no real growth. But year-over-year, we're up about 9%. If you look over 2 years ago, it's up 31%. So I think the story's good. I think, because there's a fair amount of EPC here, the backlog growth will tend to be a little on the lumpy side. So now moving on to Slide 13. This is just a quick overview of our acquisition activity. As you know, we've been very busy. We had a number of announcements of acquisitions in the fourth quarter. Things like Ilitha, SKM, Compass, Buchi [ph] , Guimar and Trompeter are all really significant. Several of those help us in the oil and gas market. We have some other activity there that we think is going to be a positive for us going forward, some infrastructure, some mining and metals, telecom. Penetration of our Brazilian business to start to grow in Brazil and a strong opportunity to build Class A license position in China, all those things are products of our acquisition activity up to now that I think are also going to be good leverage for '14 and '15 and beyond. As we look forward, the geographies that remain very interesting, certainly China, South America, Australia are all very interesting from a geographic point of view. I think there'll be some opportunities in the Middle East and Africa as well. From a market standpoint, we remain very interested in oil and gas, niche mining acquisitions. The infrastructure business will continue to be very important to us. And we're going to be taking a hard look at whether or not there's a good acquisition out there in the power business or not. We think that's one of the businesses we're not in that would be a leverage point for us going forward. So moving now to the summary. Why Jacobs? It's sort of our commercial. Our relationship-based business model works. This is Slide 14. I told you about the 94% repeat business. I think our diversification is a positive for us. We've got a great balance sheet, 1.3 -- almost $1.3 billion in cash, $800 million-and-change in net cash. Our cost position is, without doubt, the industry's best. We've been able to demonstrate year-over-year growth, 13.8% between '12 and '13, if you take the Metso thing out, and we're forecasting pretty decent growth for fiscal '14, particularly in light of John's comments about how difficult the first quarter is going to be. So with that, we'll get to your questions. Gary, let me give it back to you.