Jerry P. Rebel
Analyst · Lazard Capital Markets
Thank you, Linda, and good morning. I'll cover our financial highlights for the quarter before reviewing our updated fiscal year 2012 outlook. All of my comments this morning regarding per share amounts refer to diluted earnings per share. First quarter earnings were $0.27 per share compared to $0.61 last year. Operating earnings per share, which we define as EPS on a GAAP basis less gain from refranchising, were $0.25 in the quarter versus $0.27 last year. Our franchisees completed a significant number of reimages during the quarter, and are now about 95% complete with their reimaging efforts. As a result, reimage incentives of approximately $0.08 per share were $0.06 higher than last year. Refranchising gains were approximately $0.02 per share in the quarter, which represented additional proceeds received as a result of the extension of the underlying franchise and lease agreements for a previously sold restaurant. This compared to gains of approximately $0.34 per share in last year's first quarter. Average weekly sales for Jack in the Box company restaurants have $29,200 or up 12.6% in the quarter, resulting in part from the 5.3% increase in same-store sales that Linda discussed, as well as the benefit of refranchising activities last year. Consolidated restaurant operating margin of 13.5% of sales for the quarter was 90 basis points better than last year's first quarter. Jack in the Box margins improved 110 basis points to 13.9%, and Qdoba margins improved 60 basis points to 12% in the quarter despite significant commodity cost headwinds for both brands. As we discussed last year, Qdoba is generally dilutive to consolidated margins in Q1, and their business is more seasonal than Jack in the Box, but we expect Qdoba to be accretive to consolidated margins in quarters 3 and 4 as well as for the full year as it was last year. The 90 basis point improvement in consolidated margins as compared to last year included approximately 110 basis points of higher food and packaging cost and 20 basis points of higher debit card fees, resulting from the Durbin Amendment to the Dodd-Frank Act. This was more than offset by 200 basis points of improvement, about half of which was driven by the benefit from refranchising over the last 12 months and the other half primarily from same-store sales leverage. Additionally, prior Qdoba acquisitions, net of new restaurants added about 20 basis points of margin improvement. The increase in food and packaging costs was due primarily to commodity inflation of approximately 8%, which was in line with our expectations, driven by higher costs for most commodities other than produce, including beef inflation of 15%. The increase was partially offset by pricing, which was 3.3% higher in the quarter at our company, Jack in the Box restaurants. Before I review guidance for the second quarter and full year, I'd like to provide an update to our commodity cost outlook for the remainder of the year. Overall, we expect commodity costs for the full year to increase by approximately 5%. Some key points with respect to our major commodity purchases and where we have coverage. These accounts for approximately 20% of our spend and remains the biggest challenge we have in forecasting commodity costs. For the full year, we still expect these costs to be up in the high-single-digit range. Chicken is about 9% of our spend. Our current contract, which have been in place for the last 2 years expire at the end of March. We have recently entered into new contract, fixing the costs through December of 2012. These accounts for about 6% of our spend. We have 100% coverage on cheese through the end of March and 50% coverage through the end of fiscal year 2012. Pastry accounts for about 8% of our spend. We now have 100% of our bakery needs covered through June of 2012 and approximately 30% coverage for the July to September 2012 time frames. Now let's move on to the rest of our guidance for the balance of the year. For the second quarter, we expect same-store sales for Jack in the Box company restaurants to increase 4% to 5%, lapping a 0.8% increase last year. System-wide same-store sales for Qdoba are expected to increase 4% to 5% versus a 6% increase in the year-ago quarters. I won't repeat all of the full year guidance included in the press release, but here's our current thinking on some of the line items that we have changed since our November guidance. Same-store sales are now expected to increase 3% to 4% at Jack in the Box company restaurants and 4% to 5% for the Qdoba system, reflecting our performance in Q1 and our expectations for Q2. Restaurant operating margin for the full year is now expected to be approximately 14%, depending on same-store sales, commodity inflation and refranchising transactions. Our guidance reflect the impact of the acquisition of 25 franchise Qdoba restaurants earlier this week. These restaurants have higher than system average unit volumes and margins, and are expected to be accretive to both margins and operating EPS this year. Diluted earnings per share are now expected to range from $1.15 to $1.43, with the range reflecting uncertainty in the timing of the anticipated refranchising transactions as well as same-store sales results and commodity inflation. Operating earnings per share, which we define as diluted earnings per share on a GAAP basis less gains from refranchising, are now expected to range from $0.95 to $1.10. Operating EPS includes approximately $0.09 to $0.10 of reimage incentive payments to franchisees in fiscal 2012, of which approximately $0.08 occurred in the first quarter. Reimage incentive payments in fiscal 2011 were $8.2 million or approximately $0.11 per share. Lastly, as we approach completion of our Jack in the Box refranchising -- strategy, we're seeing the results of our business model transformation, including a higher AUV, higher margin company operated footprint, growing annuity like royalty and rental income streams that we now sublease approximately 90% of our franchise locations and lower CapEx with more capital deployed towards growth versus maintenance. At the same time, Qdoba has become a more significant part of our business, now 28% of our company-operated store base and will continue to become larger still as we more aggressively grow our brand in the fastest-growing segment of the restaurant industry. That concludes our prepared remarks. I'd now like to turn the call over to the operator to open it up for questions. Stacy?