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Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG)

Q2 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 31, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello and welcome to the Dorian LPG Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Additionally, a live audio webcast of today’s conference call is available on Dorian LPG’s website, which is www.dorianlpg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, Mr. Young. Please go ahead.

Ted Young

Management

Thank you, Nicky. Good morning and thank you all for joining us for our second quarter 2025 results conference call. With me today are John Hadjipateras, Chairman, President and CEO of Dorian LPG Limited; John Lycouris, Head of Energy Transition; and Tim Hansen, Chief Commercial Officer. As a reminder, this conference call webcast and a replay of this call will be available through November 7, 2024. Many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These statements may often be identified with words such as expect, anticipate, believe, or similar indications of future expectations. Although we believe that such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors as well as general economic conditions. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we express today. Additionally, let me refer you to our unaudited results for the period ended September 30, 2024 that were filed this morning on Form 10-Q. In addition, please refer to our previous filings on Form 10-K where you’ll find risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. With that, I’ll turn over the call to John Hadjipateras.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Good morning and Happy Halloween. Thank you for joining us. Our Board continues to be committed to returning value to our shareholders, while retaining commercial flexibility, ensuring a strong balance sheet and the ability to invest in optimization and decarbonization initiatives. This is reflected in our capital allocation policy under which after paying out our recently declared dividend of $1 per share, we will have returned over $820 million to our shareholders since our IPO. We had a solid quarter despite a freight market, which felt the brunt of weather-related disruptions on LPG exports. For the quarter ending September 31, our EBITDA was $46.2 million and net income was $9.4 million. Our net debt to total capitalization remains at about 14%. We feel well positioned to take advantage of opportunities for investments. Ted will give you details and answers to any questions you may have on our quarter’s financial results. VLGC freight rates started the quarter on a high note, but this initial strength was followed by a period of softening through mid-quarter. Despite a very healthy arbitrage between U.S. and Asian LPG prices, the VLGC freight market was hit with an unusual combination of forces that created temporary length in the market and weighed on rates. Tim will provide you greater details in his comments. We are optimistic about near and mid-term market prospects ahead of seasonally strong winter period. Recent volatility illustrates that the market is near equilibrium, where disruptions cause sharp and up and down moves. In the short-term, Canal is likely to gain more traffic from container and LNG ships in the coming months. And an example of the midterm positive is terminal expansion projects, the first of which is slated to finish in the second half of 2026 and subsequent 2 years will provide ample capacity to accommodate production and export growth. The Helios LPG pool is performing well and our mix of scrubber LPG dual fuel and Panama VLGCs, allows us to take advantage of favorable fewer prices and to offer commercial flexibility to our customers. We have 1 VLGC/VLAC delivering in 2026 and will retrofit some of our existing ships to be able to carry ammonia. We already have the Captain John NP on the water, which is fully ammonia capable. Our feeling is that the current order book is sufficient and further ordering needs to be restrained until the green ammonia trade develops. We are pleased to announce the addition of an eighth board member, Mr. Mark Ross earlier stepped down – earlier this year, stepped down from his position as President of Chevron Shipping after 9 years in that role and 34 years at Chevron, Mark’s knowledge of the global energy and shipping markets will contribute a valuable perspective. And we’re proud to welcome him to the Dorian team. As always, I acknowledge our dedicated seafarers and shore side staff whose hard work and dedication make our results possible. And now I’d like to hand over to Ted.

Ted Young

Management

Thanks. My comments today will focus on capital allocation, our financial position and liquidity and our unaudited second quarter results. At September 30, 2024, we reported $348.6 million of free cash, which was virtually flat from the previous quarter. Cash flow for the quarter reflected the $42.8 million irregular dividend, which implies cash flow to equity of $44 million. As disclosed last week, we will pay another $1 per shares in irregular dividend or roughly $43 million in total on or about November 25, 2024 to shareholders of record as of November 5. The debt balance at quarter end of $583.7 million, our debt to total book capitalization stood at 34.9%, and with our strong cash balance, net debt to total cap at 13.4%. With well structured and attractively priced debt capital, our current all-in debt cost by the way is about 4.7% and undrawn $50 million revolver and 1 debt-free vessel coupled with our strong free cash balance, we have a comfortable measure of financial flexibility. We expect our cash cost per day for the remainder of the coming year to be approximately $26,000 per day, excluding capital expenditures for dry docking and scrubbers. For the discussion of our second quarter results, you may find it useful to refer to the investor highlights slides posted this morning on our website. I’d also remind you that my remarks will include a number of terms such as TCE available days and adjusted EBITDA. Please refer to our filings for the definitions of those terms. I’d also like to point out that we have slightly amended our disclosures around fleet employment. Specifically, we have amended our definition of available days to reflect unscheduled off-hire, which was formally picked up in the calculation of operating days. We now define available days as calendar…

Tim Hansen

Management

Thank you, Ted and good day everyone. The quarter ending September 30, 2024, saw a freight market challenged by external factors, complicating the product market and the shipping market alike. With the Hurricane Beryl occurring shortly after the Chile repairs of various U.S. Gulf terminals, Tropical Storm Alberto, and the severe reduction of congestion of the Panama Canal, that was seen in May and June, it was an unusual quarter. It showed a wide open arbitrage west to east or living room for the freight market to capitalize. This was due to the lengths, the investors’ availability and temporary limited export capacity. According to several brokers, July 2024 saw the lowest count of spot fixtures in the U.S. called for many years. The west to east arbitrage was attractive. For Hurricane Beryl and continued Chile capacity issues at some terminals reduced the slot availability at the terminals for loading. The short supply of spot FOB cargo saw terminal in fees increased dramatically and re-sales of cargoes FOBs also saw large sums exchanged. Ultimately, almost 0.5 million tons less export was seen in July. Delaying the correction that the market wanted to see since June, August saw, however a new record high for LPG export from the U.S. at about 6 million tons. Going a long way to clearing the backlog of VLGCs that has been building since June, the high level of fixing activity helped push the freight market outputs, but levels were capped by the long list – by the long position list and aggressive re-lift of challenge. It was also re-lifts in September that drove the U.S. to Far East via the sea market down to levels not seen since February 2024. The decisions made in September were mostly for Silver Lake cans. And like we saw in…

John Lycouris

Management

Thank you, Tim. In continuation of our commitment to sustainability, Dorian LPG strives to improve the energy efficiency of its vessels with a focus on operational and technical performance while continuing to follow and employ technological advances and innovations as they become commercially available in the marine sector. Our scrubber vessel savings for the third quarter of 2024 amounted to $2.17 million or about $1,962 per day net of all scrubber operating expenses. Fuel differentials between high sulfur fuel oil and low sulfur fuel oil averaged at $115 per metric ton, while the differential of LPG as fuel versus the low sulfur fuel oil stood at about $185 per metric ton, which is quite advantageous for the dual fuel LPG engine vessels. The total number of owned vessels fitted with scrubber units in our fleet is now 15, after having retrofitted another vessel in the last calendar quarter during this vessel’s regular drydocking window. The added advantage with scrubber fitted vessels is their eligibility for future installation of carbon capture modules. Marinized carbon capture modules present a significant opportunity for decarbonization. And we anticipate their adoption will become necessary in the medium-term as greenhouse gas emission regulations tighten significantly in the future. We have also completed the drydocking of two further vessels, including an ammonia as cargo upgrade for one of them. There is another ammonia as cargo upgrade for a vessel plan for drydocking by the end of this year. Upon completion of this last vessel, the Dorian LPG fleet will have three VLGC VLAC vessels capable for ammonia cargos in the water and one new building to be delivered in 2026. We anticipate an intensive schedule of drydockings this coming year and next for the global VLGC fleet. About 80 VLGCs were built in the 2015-2016 period. Most…

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thanks John. Thank you. We can take any questions, if anyone has any questions for us before, before we do, I would like to make a like to go back on a comment I made about the medium-term, medium-term optimism and amongst other factors, is based on two terminals, big terminal expansions that we can see. I said second half ‘26, but in fact the first is coming in the second half of 2025 with cargo and [ph] energy transfer up to 8 million tons, and this other one will be enterprise second half 2026 with 10 million to 15 million tons. Mickey, over to you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we will take our first question from Omar Nokta with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Thank you. Hey guys. Good morning. Couple of questions from my side and maybe John sort of on your last comments there and Ted, I know, you and I have spoken about this quite a bit, just regarding the VLGC, spot rates, what we have been seeing here recently, especially with what’s going on with U.S. terminal capacity. Obviously, capacity here near-term has been limited. That’s causing a jump in spot terminal fees, which in turn is compressing the export ARB [ph] and putting maybe a cap on freight rates at the moment. The expansion projects that come on next year and then in ‘26 look like that could start to loosen up and perhaps some of that tightness on the terminal side, so just wanted to ask, and maybe John, I guess you sort of hinted at it, but you just say some reasons for optimism as that capacity expands, do you think that that means we are perhaps in this soft patch for the next few quarters in which VLGC rates maybe not – they may not capture their historical ratio of that arbitrage, but then once those terminals expand, we can start to see the rates revert to their norms. And when I say norms, norms in relation to the ARB?

John Hadjipateras

Management

Yes. I don’t really, to be honest. I think that the factors like the efficiency of the canal transits feature more prominently than the export capacity restriction. So, that’s kind of what I feel. I think that there is – with an ARB as open as it is, the reason we haven’t been able to capture it is more – it more to do with the absence of any kind of inefficiencies in fleet utilization, which is a feature what we – that we saw last year to a great extent, due to the Panama Canal transits. And I think it’s reasonable to expect in the next couple of quarters that the canal will become less efficient for VLGCs, because the demand for transits from LNG and containers will increase. So, as much as anyone can guess and it’s obviously very difficult to do. I don’t think that there is a cap necessarily on that and certainly not because of the terminal capacity.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Got it. Thanks. That’s quite helpful. Appreciate you saying that. And kind of on where we are in the marketplace, I guess we are at that time of year where U.S. LPG inventory starts to maybe level out after building for several months. Do you think that this winter, based off what you are seeing will bring that same type of seasonality where U.S. consumption raises, leads to higher prices domestically here, also putting pressure on the ARB and then impacting rates, or do you think something is different perhaps this winter, anything you can talk about there.

John Hadjipateras

Management

The weather predictions have been sort of for colder winter here, so that should put a bit of pressure on the ARB. And so far, at least, they have been for a kind of moderate, more moderate winter in Asia. But just as this was revised for here, it can easily be revised for Asia too. So, it’s kind of betting on the weather, I think to a large extent, looking for the immediate-term. And that’s my feeling. I don’t know whether Tim could add a little more color being on the front lines of the market. Tim, you want to have a go at it?

Tim Hansen

Management

Yes. I think as you said, the weather and the Panama Canal are really the two most important things. So, we haven’t – I mean we have a very warm weather in the East right now, so the urgency for stocking up for the winter have not really started yet, but that could change very quickly. I mean as you said, there was a prediction it was going to be warmer in the East than usual, but the latest we saw was another analyst saying that it was going to be colder. So again, the sentiment can change very quickly in the East. And when there is a pull on the on the East, the half will adjust itself to open that up even if the U.S. prices also go up. And we have seen big inventories in the U.S., so I don’t think that the U.S. prices will – there will not be no panic in the U.S. to withstand the exports. So, we expect maximum exports to the East still, and with the production sufficient product to satisfy the U.S. markets, or by the inland prices may make up a bit so. So, really the shipping market depends on the pull from the East, and especially the Panama Canal.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Okay. Thanks Tim. And then just the final one for me and Ted, I think you did mention it, but can you just remind or say it again, sorry. Just the bookings that have been covered thus far and then just what those referred to.

Tim Hansen

Management

Yes. So, for this current quarter, the one ending December 31, ‘24, we estimate that we have fixed just over 60% of the available days and a TCE in excess of $40,000 per day. That’s only for the Helios Pool, and that includes both spot fixtures time charters and estimates for the COAs.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Okay. Perfect. Okay. Thanks Ted. Thanks guys. I will turn it over.

Tim Hansen

Management

Thanks. Thanks Omar.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thank you, Omar.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Clement Mullins with Value Investors Edge. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Clement Mullins

Analyst · Value Investors Edge. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to start by asking about the year-to-date decline in exports from the Middle East. To what extent is that attributable to the oil output cuts, and should those be East, going forward, do you expect Middle Eastern volumes to increase?

John Hadjipateras

Management

The answer to the last point, yes and yes, they do. The exports of LPG from the Middle East are very related to the output. So, when – what if OPEC plus increase then we expect, it’s not – so it’s not a perfect correlation, but there is an – all-in-all, it’s correlated. Sometimes there are some distortions that, like Saudi Arabia uses LPG internally and – but in general, we would expect if OPEC plus is the increase of production, their exports, then we would see more volume of the LPG also from the Middle East.

Clement Mullins

Analyst · Value Investors Edge. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

That’s helpful. Thank you. I also wanted to ask about the ammonia trade. It will still take a while for this trade to truly, let’s say, live up to expectations, but could you talk a bit about the timeline you see. When do you expect volumes to start to have a meaningful effect on the overall VLGC trade?

John Hadjipateras

Management

So, it’s one of those things. The way I look at it is one of those things that’s long and coming and then comes suddenly. So, at the moment, we are not seeing as much as – as much development of green ammonia trade has had generally been expected by the industry, which caused this new building kind of surge in the last 12 months or so. But there is – there are prospects for it to develop. There are some projects that are already kind of be a little bit beyond the planning stage and there is more consideration of blue ammonia. So, I think that while at the moment, we don’t have anything that would kind of give us comfort that all the ammonia capable ships will be carrying ammonia. When they are delivered, I think when it happens, it could happen quickly enough to have a positive effect and absorb that tonnage. And that’s how we are looking at it at the moment.

Clement Mullins

Analyst · Value Investors Edge. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thanks for the color. That’s all from me. Thank you for taking my questions.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thank you for your questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And this will conclude our Q&A session. I will now turn the call over to management for closing remarks.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Yes. Well, my closing remark is to thank you all, have a – we are beginning to enter the holiday season, so hopefully higher freight rates and everybody have a good time and see you again in January.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And this will conclude today’s call. Thank you all for your participation and you may disconnect at any time.