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Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Jan 31, 2025

$38.54

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Dorian LPG Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Additionally, a live audio webcast of today’s conference call is available on Dorian LPG’s website, which is www.dorianlpg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ted Young, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, Mr. Young. Please go ahead.

Ted Young

Management

Thank you, Nagy. Good morning everyone and thank you all for joining us for our third quarter 2025 results conference call. With me today are John Hadjipateras, Chairman, President and CEO of Dorian LPG Limited; John Lycouris, Head of Energy Transition and Chief Executive Officer of Dorian LPG USA; and Taro Rasmussen, Vice President of Chartering. As a reminder, this conference call webcast and a replay of this call will be available through February 27, 2025. Many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These statements may often be identified with words such as expect, anticipate, believe or similar indications of future expectations. Although we believe that such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors as well as general economic conditions. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we express today. Additionally, let me refer you to our unaudited results for the period ended December 31, 2024, that were filed this morning on Form 10-Q. In addition, please refer to our previous filings on Form 10-K where you’ll find risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements. Finally, I would encourage you to review the investor highlight slides posted this morning on our website. With that, I’ll turn over the call to John Hadjipateras.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thank you, Ted. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. Before passing back to Ted and my colleagues John and Tar, who will provide you with detailed comments or financial results on the market and our outlook, I’d like to highlight the following. Our dividend of $0.70 per share is consistent with our irregular dividend policy of aligning shareholder returns with market realities. Our current voyage bookings reflect the improved market and our confidence in paying a dividend exceeding our current EPS, despite a heavy dry docking schedule, underscores our positive outlook. I would like to note that we are achieving fuel savings higher than 10% from the energy saving devices and silicon paints we’re installing during these dry dockings, resulting in payback periods of less than a year and continuous fuel and cost emissions saving. We expect production growth and terminal expansions at Targa and Nederland by second half 2025 and deliveries of only 11 ships this year will support a healthy freight market in the foreseeable future. We are mindful of a volatile political environment, but we’re hopeful that our trade will not be disrupted by a possible tariffs tit for tat considering that the U.S.’s share of LPG imports to China was 44% in 2024 compared to 22% in 2015, and China’s share of U.S. exports was 60% in 2024 compared to 30% in 2015. We’re confident in the LPG trade with growth prospects in pet chem, as well as domestic consumption. Expected deliveries in the latter part of 2026 and in 2027 are substantial and give pause as a percentage of the existing fleet, they are more modest than past delivery cascades. On production some evolving policies of the U.S. have the potential to unleash its oil and gas industry. We are mindful of the challenges posed by many uncertainties on the geopolitical front, including developments in Ukraine, Iran and the Middle East, which may strongly influence our market. To navigate this environment, we will focus on prudent capital allocation and operational excellence, doing what we know best, serving our customers by providing safe, reliable, clean and trouble free transportation, while maintaining a solid balance sheet. We are preparing our operations and fleet to be able to bid on emerging ammonia projects. We already have the Captain John NP on the water, fully ammonia capable. We recently retrofitted one of our 2015-built VLGCs to be ammonia capable and plan to retrofit another two ships this year. In addition, we have one VLGC, VLAC delivering in 2026. With a strong balance sheet, the company is well-positioned to continue being a leader in the VLGC, VLAC market. And now I’d like to pass you back to Ted.

Ted Young

Management

Thanks John. My comments today will focus on capital allocation, our financial position, liquidity and our unaudited third quarter results. At December 31, 2024 we reported $314.5 million of free cash, which was sequentially down from the previous quarter. The change in cash from the quarter was essentially $10.9 million in cash flow to equity, offset by $42.6 million irregular dividends paid and $2.8 million in vessel CapEx. As disclosed last week, we will pay a $0.70 per share irregular dividend or roughly $30 million in total on or about February 27, 2025 to shareholders of record as of February 5. With a debt balance at quarter end of $570.3 million, our total debt – our debt-to-total book capitalization stood at 34.8% and net debt to total cap at 15%. We have well-structured and attractively priced debt capital with a current all-in cost of about 4.7%, an undrawn $50 million revolver and one debt-free vessel and coupled with our strong free cash balance, gives us a comfortable measure of financial flexibility. Looking ahead, we expect our cash cost per day for the coming year to be approximately $26,000 per day, excluding capital expenditures for dry docking. I would note that our lowest cost hedges, which were at 0.92% for three-month SOFR are rolling off at the end of this quarter, which will result in about a 30 basis point increase in our all-in debt cost beginning in the first fiscal quarter of 2026. The discussion of our third quarter results, you may also find it useful to refer to the investor highlight slides posted this morning on our website. I’d also remind you that my remarks will include a number of terms such as TCE, available days and adjusted EBITDA. Please refer to our filings for the definition of these…

Taro Rasmussen

Management

Good day, everyone, and thank you for dialing in. The quarter ending December 31, 2024 saw freight market in recovery from the challenges witnessed the quarter prior, but without a winter spike as had been seen the previous four years. Export volumes from major export regions remained high, but a warm winter and tepid demand for petrochemicals in the Far East halted any booms from emerging. The high inventory levels and record high production levels in the United States created favorable market conditions for exports during October, but physical liftings from U.S. Gulf terminals were hampered on export capacity was priced into the west to east arbitrage, which limited speculative buying for any potential cold snaps in the Far East. Although, spikes in VLGC fixing demand were elusive, the fundamentals of high inventory levels and high production ensured stable export volumes through October and the Western Market traded at a continued premium to the east for the duration of the quarter. The relative attractiveness of the Western Marketto the East drew significant VLGC supply to U.S. loading areas and supported a then record export month for VLGCs from the United States in November. In terms of reported exports on VLGCs, the previous record was about 4.67 million tons exported in August of 2024 and November was about 4.76 million tons. With negligible delays at the Panama Canal in November, vessel supply was effectively programmed and rates were held sideways. The average freight rates in December for the Western Market were slightly higher than November, owing mostly to the many vessels laden en route to the Far East from the month prior, reflecting the situation of continued positive fundamentals of high inventory and production levels, but fewer vessels available to export was, as during the previous quarter, characterized by inquiries by…

John Lycouris

Management

Thank you, Tar. At Dorian LPG we strive to improve the energy efficiency of our vessels with a focus on operational and technical performance and continue to follow the employment of technological advances and innovations commercially available to the marine sector. The Dorian LPG fleet currently exceeds the IMO Carbon Intensity Index or CII requirements by using real time data monitoring to determine mid voyage technical and operational optimizations. Our 2024 annual efficiency ratio or AER, which is a CO2 emissions intensity metric for the industry and grades vessels from A to E with A being best was 10.6% better than the IMO target and grades the fleet with a CIA rating of B. The employment of energy saving devices, advanced engine software modifications, implementation of advanced vessel routing software, and AI engine monitoring systems have resulted in improved fleet performance and in the reduction of emissions and bunker costs. Our scrubber vessel savings for the fourth calendar quarter of 2024 amounted to $1.6 million, or about $1,346 per calendar day net of all scrubber operating expense. Fuel differentials between high sulfur fuel oil and very low sulfur fuel oil averaged $83 per metric ton, while the differential of LPG as fuel versus very low sulfur fuel oil stood at about $155 per metric ton, making LPG as a fuel quite economically advantageous for our dual fuel vessels. We operate 16 scrubber-fitted vessels and four dual fuel LPG vessels. As mentioned earlier in our call, a second 2015 built vessel is currently undergoing an extensive cargo upgrade for ammonia cargoes during the special survey and dry docking window for that vessel’s regulatory requirements. There is another ammonia’s cargo upgrade for a vessel planned for dry dock later this year. Upon completion the Dorian LPG – of completion of these projects,…

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thank you very much. Nagy, let’s go and [ph] open questions we have.

Operator

Operator

And with the prepared remarks completed, we will now open the line for questions. [Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Omar Nokta with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Thanks, operator. Hey guys. Good morning. Thanks for the detailed update as usual. Good to get into everything. I guess you answered a good amount of the question on the dividend with your remarks. So I’ll probably leave it at that. But maybe just wanted to ask first kind of on capital allocation going forward as we think about things. The past couple of years, you’ve taken advantage of a very strong market. You paid down a good amount of debt, built up cash, acquired some ships and clearly paid some big dividends along the way. How do you think about what’s important as we move through and into 2025? Obviously, there’s a good amount of uncertainty. There’s a sense here that maybe freight rates are going to be moderating from what we saw previously. How would you think – or how do you rank your uses of capital moving forward from here?

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thanks for that question, Omar. You always ask a very pertinent and deep questions. So it is – I think we continue the same. I mean we don’t – our priorities remain the same. I think that we have – we see the market, as I said in my comments, as being constructive. There are – there may be opportunities for expansion. There may be opportunities for – I think that we are well positioned for that with our debt structure and our cash position for – and we think that the market – we’re hopeful that the market will continue providing the cash surpluses that we’ve seen and that we can continue more or less on the same level, the same mentality that we’ve had so far, which is prudent debt management, prudent cash position and dividends.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Very good. Yes. Thanks, John. That’s really helpful. And I guess maybe just kind of talking about the amount of supply coming on, you mentioned in the release the 107 VLGCs on order equaling to about 20% of the fleet. Looking back over the past few years, the trade growth has been very strong and easily could have absorbed that amount of capacity. How do you think about the demand going forward? Do you think that we can still see a good amount of trade growth that can pull in these vessels without a significant impact to the supply demand balance? Maybe that’s the first question. And then maybe like part two of that, there’s also maybe 50 or 60 VLECs coming in to the market. Can you just talk about how those affect the trade going forward? Thank you.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Omar, I think, you know that the ordering boom was caused by optimism on a developing ammonia grade. And currently, there’s a bit of pullback and certainly people are feeling more cautious about it. But I think that the – it’s been discounted, the delays have been discounted and from here forward, the possibility the upside is greater than, so just like in the last few years we absorb a significant amount of ship deliveries. I think the trade – the increase in the trade, both of the LPG, my own feeling is and in the potential of ammonia is going to absorb – is going to be enough to absorb the deliveries that we see coming in 2026 and 2027.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Great. All right. Thanks. That sounds good. And maybe just do you mind just touching on the VLECs in terms of how those – are those fully contracted for the most part and by design going into ethane? Or is that something that we should consider as potential oncoming supply as well?

John Hadjipateras

Management

Are you talking about VLEC, the ethane or the AC?

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Yes, sorry, that’s what I said. Yes, that’s ethane, yes, VLEC.

John Hadjipateras

Management

No. No, no. I think that trade is increasing on its own. I think those ships will be absorbed in that market. I know they have the potential to drop down into the VLGC market, but I don’t think that there will be – that will happen because their exports and then the expansion of that market is significant.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Okay, got it. Well, thanks John that makes sense and appreciate it. I’ll turn it over.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we will move next with Clement Mullins with Value Investors Edge. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Clement Mullins

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to start by asking about your booking so far in Q1. Could you talk about what percentage of days you fixed so far and at what rates?

John Hadjipateras

Management

Ted or Tar? Which of you would like to take that? Ted?

Ted Young

Management

I’ll just reiterate what we said earlier in the call. We said that we’ve booked just over 53% of the available days and we estimate that we will achieve a TCE in excess of $37,000 a day for the quarter.

Clement Mullins

Analyst

That’s helpful. I had missed it. I also wanted to ask about the time chartering vessels with purchase options. Could you provide some commentary on the price? Those are exercisable.

Ted Young

Management

No, we don’t disclose that.

Clement Mullins

Analyst

All right, and then final question from me. Following up on Omar’s question on capital allocation. You’re now back trading at a substantial discount to NAV. And this is a decision more for the board. But could you comment on how you view the trade-off between share repurchases and dividend distributions?

John Hadjipateras

Management

Well, we have a share repurchase authority. And we are watching the price of the stock, obviously, and it’s definitely not off the table for us to sort of accelerate, perhaps our share repurchase.

Clement Mullins

Analyst

Makes sense. That’s all for me. Thank you for taking my questions.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And this will conclude our Q&A session. I will now turn the call over to management for closing remarks.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Well, thank you very much, everyone. We look forward to talking to you at our next call. Meantime, have a good time. Thank you. Bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

And this does conclude today’s program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.