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Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Thu, May 22, 2025

$38.54

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Dorian LPG Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Additionally, a live audio webcast of today's conference call is available on Dorian LPG's website, which is www.dorianlpg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Theodore Young, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, Mr. Young. Please go ahead.

Ted Young

Management

Thank you, Mickey. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining us for our fourth quarter 2025 results conference call. With me today are John Hadjipateras, Chairman, President and CEO of Dorian LPG Limited; John Lycouris, Head of Energy Transition; and Tim Hansen, Chief Commercial Officer. As a reminder, this conference call webcast and a replay of this call will be available through May 29, 2025. Many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These statements may often be identified with words such as expect, anticipate, believe or similar indications of future expectations. Although we believe that such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors, as well as general economic conditions. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we express today. Additionally, let me refer you to our unaudited results for the quarterly and annual periods ended March 31, 2025, that were filed this morning on Form 8-K. In addition, please refer to our previous filings on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, where you'll find risk factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements. Also, please note that we expect to file our full 10-K no later than May 30, 2025. Finally, I'd encourage you to review the investor highlight slides posted this morning on our website. And with that, I'll turn over the call to John Hadjipateras.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. My colleagues, Ted, John and Tim will provide you with detailed comments on our financial results, our sustainability and operational progress and our market outlook. First, I'd like to highlight the following. Our dividend of $0.50 per share, totaling $21.3 million, reflects our commitment to returning capital to shareholders in a manner that's aligned with market conditions and our policy of distributing earnings prudently. This past fiscal year, we paid over $155 million in dividends. So far in 2025, freight rate movements have been dramatic. While traders grappled with the tariff announcements and the fact that, for a time, it became uneconomic to export U.S. LPG to China, the market quickly assessed the ability of the Middle East and Canada to replace U.S. funds. Through this, U.S. exports remained strong with more than 300 VLGCs loading more than 14,000,000 tons in the last quarter. U.S. LPG specifications are particularly attractive for Chinese PDH plants. As you will hear from Tim, we believe that increased production in the U.S. and the Middle East and U.S. terminal expansion, combined with just nine new buildings for the rest of the year, will support a balanced freight market and healthy earnings for 2025. We are confident in the long-term fundamentals of LPG demand, which are underpinned by growing petrochemical and residential consumption, particularly in Asia and by infrastructure expansions in the U.S., which will support steady growth in NGL output. Moving to the operational side of our business, we are progressing our investments in quick-payback energy-saving devices and performance optimization. We have 8 dry dockings planned for this year. John L. will provide an update on our initiatives and our decision to convert some of our VLGCs to facilitate the carriage of ammonia. And now I'd like to pass it over to our CFO, Ted Young, for our quarterly financial overview.

Ted Young

Management

Thanks, John. My comments this morning will focus on capital allocation, our financial position and liquidity and our unaudited fourth quarter results. At March 31, 2025, we reported $317 million free cash, which was sequentially up from the previous quarter. Cash flow from operations more than doubled from $24 million to $50.3 million quarter-over-quarter, and we generated $10 million from the maturity of some bond holdings, all of which gave us enough cash flow to support our dividend a progress payment on our new building made in January and our quarterly debt amortization. Thus, in spite of significant outflows, we still managed a modest increase in cash. As disclosed 2 weeks ago, we will pay an irregular dividend of $0.50 per share or roughly $21 million in total on or about May 30, 2025, to shareholders of record as of May 16. We Including this dividend, we have returned approximately $875 million in cash through dividends, a self-tender offer and open market repurchases since our IPO. With the debt balance at quarter end of $557.4 million, our debt to total book capitalization stood at 34.8% and net debt to total capitalization at 15%. We have well-structured and attractively priced debt capital with a current all-in cost of about 5.1%, an undrawn $50 million revolver and one debt-free vessel. Coupled with our strong free cash balance, we have a comfortable measure of financial flexibility. Looking ahead, we expect our cash cost per day for the coming year to be approximately $26,000 per day, excluding capital expenditures for dry docking and progress payments on our new building. For the discussion of our fourth quarter results, you may also find it useful to refer to the investor highlight slides posted this morning on our website. I would also remind you that my remarks…

Tim Hansen

Management

Thank you, Ted, and good day, everyone. At the start of the quarter ending March 31, the freight market kept its momentum from last December. Activity remains strong in the East with the Indian PSU actively covering general requirements. And in the West, charters quickly returned post-holidays to secure first half February liftings out of the U.S. Gulf at rates in the low 110s on the PLPGs. Three routes used into Chiba, which equals some GTEs in the mid- to high -- mid- to high 40s per day. The rates trended upwards at the end of '24, and the typical winter spike was yet to materialize. Thus, there was expectations of further gains. However, in the second week of January, a cold spell in the U.S. Gulf course charters to pose board fixing, being aware of disruptions such as Texas freeze in prior years and recent terminal delays experienced last summer. Sudden tightening in the Panama Canal, with auction fees spiking to $500,000, added to further strain on the voyage planning. Repeated cold spells in the U.S. drove out domestic LPG demand, leading to a rise in them on LPG price. In meantime, seasonally warm weather and subdued petrochemical demand in Asia narrowed the arbitrage, tightening the terminal fees and freight rates. With no spot activity, rates began to soften on sentiment. With February exports down with about 1 million worldwide, with 300,000 in the East and about 700,000 out of the U.S. and no U.S. productivity for the second half February liftings. Plus, we mentioned on certain Panama transit costs, more owners started to ballast from Asia towards Middle East, Gulf or via Cape to the U.S. Gulf, putting pressure on the Middle East Gulf rates and increasing the vessels availability. Due to limited U.S. activity, vessel availability gradually…

John Lycouris

Management

Thank you, Tim. At Dorian LPG, we are committed to continuously improving energy efficiency and advancing the sustainability of our operations and our vessels. We've maintained a daily focus on optimizing vessel operational efficiency, whether on the way or import while continuously incorporating insights from our crew to ensure comprehensive performance monitoring, we leverage both proprietary tools and third-party platforms to assess the efficiency of the hall, main engine, auxiliary engines, boilers and the integrity of data quality. Our performance is assessed by monitoring frictional resistance with careful consideration of trim and speed optimization. We consistently monitor and clean the how and propeller to optimize performance and minimize overall fuel consumption. We conduct regular monitoring of the main engine, auxiliary engines and boiler, focusing on performance metrics such as utilization, power loads and lubrication efficiency. Our scrubber vessel savings for the first quarter of 2025 amounted to $1.37 million or about $1,174 per calendar day per vessel, net of all scrubber operating expenses. Fuel differentials between high sulfur fuel oil and very low sulfur fuel oil averaged $67 per metric ton, while the differential of LPG as fuel versus the very low sulfur fuel oil stood at about $93 per metric ton, making LPG economically attractive for our dual-fuel and vessels. We now operate 16 scrubber-fitted vessels and 4 dual-fuel LPG vessels. We have now completed the second VLGC vessel upgrade to carry ammonia cargo, and the third vessel is planned to be upgraded during its dry docking in the fourth quarter of 2025. Once this last vessel is completed, 4 VLCC vessels in our Dorian LPG fleet will be able to carry ammonia cargoes in addition to our new building VLGC BLAC vessels delivering in 2026. We believe that the cargo fitness upgrades to include the ammonia cargo capability,…

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thank you all. Thank you, John, Tim and Ted. Nick, we can open up for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. We'll take our first question from Omar Nokta with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Good morning. I wanted to just ask a bit about the volatility that we've been seeing in the VLGC market. Obviously, there's always volatility that just seems to be much more extreme, perhaps recently. But one thing is clearly: the spot rates have exceeded many expectations. And right now, we're in over 50,000 a day, it seems, on the spot market. Ted, you mentioned you booked 79% of the quarter at $42,000. It seems that the rates are basically much stronger than anticipated. Could you maybe -- I know, Tim, you talked about this a little bit, but could you talk about what's driving this market strength here recently? And is this sort of -- are there any kind of trade pattern changes that have evolved out of what happened in April between China and the U.S.? Can you just give a bit more context as to what's driving this latest upswing?

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thank you. Thanks for the question, Omar. I think Ted -- I mean sorry, I think Tim is best positioned to answer you. This is on the front line. And obviously, it's something on everybody's mind. So, Tim, can you take it, please?

Tim Hansen

Management

Yes. Omar, as you said, it has gone up quite a lot lately. I mean, we see that tightening that we still see these trade flows had that altered when the high tariff was in place, and China put on the statutory tariffs. So, we're still seeing a lot of cargoes going from the U.S. to India and to Southeast Asia. So that, of course, gives a lot of ton miles. So, I think there's still a balance between whether it makes sense to swap the tonnes or from -- and with a 10% tax, whether it makes sense to use U.S. origins into China or whether it's better to take and supplement out of AG. So there doesn't seem to be demand construction, but some of the cargoes are still going the longer route around the Cape to Southeast Asia and to India, particularly. And that also means that you have more than miles out of the AG when they go to China, which would normally go, for example, to India. So, on top of that, I mean, the reduction is still very strong, and we have -- before we talked about tariffs, expected a strong year of 2025 and which -- which has seemed to be a little bit forgotten in all the noise on the tariff trade. But we have -- I mean, 2025 was predicted to be relatively tight compared to '24 with a limited newbuilding deliveries. And you can say that the previous little jump in newbuilding deliveries have been absorbed now from '23-'24 and production is still quite high. Plus, as John mentioned also, you do have a lot of drydocking coming this year and even more next year. So -- so we did have kind of a firm outlook for '25 already. And yes, with the change in trade routes, that has definitely helped, especially as we haven't seen any destruction of demand here in China.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Yes, sorry, go ahead.

John Hadjipateras

Management

No, I was going to say, even at the best of times, it's very difficult to kind of make a projection on rates. But right now, it's even more. But we all else, things are staying the way they are, which they really do. We feel that these rates are sustainable.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Yes. Yes. Good. And so, I guess maybe just kind of on that, you talked a bit about the kind of the reshuffling perhaps of a vessel capacity kind of moving into different trade routes. You have a longer ton-mile. Since this U.S.-China trade deal over the kind of beginning of last week, have you seen kind of like a flood of inquiry or a flood of fixtures on the part of Chinese buyers again? Have you seen a noticeable pickup? Or are these trade lanes kind of perhaps becoming more saturated and how they've been developing in the past several months.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Tim?

Tim Hansen

Management

Yes. I think it seems to have kind of settled now. I mean when you have the high 45% to 25% tariffs, definitely, we didn't see any U.S. going into China now. I think you we do towards balance. But it seems to have already shifted and people seem content to keep selling to India. I guess also expectation of things could change again. So as long as it's on balancess, you could say, it was immaterial, whether you go one or the other places. You will probably still try to place U.S. tonnes outside China just to make sure that no surprises bring upon you. So, we have seen a change in the trade routes and also the way that Indians import have taken advantage of the U.S.-China trade war.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Got it. Okay. And then a final one. I think, Ted, you may have mentioned in your opening comments the side amount of dividend was made before the China U.S. trade talks. Is that perhaps maybe a hint that you're more comfortable with something different, something higher, perhaps, especially given the rate improvement we've seen recently?

Ted Young

Management

I wouldn't want to commit, the Board or anybody. I just think that, obviously, it did change things, as you just talked about. And so, the Board made the decision with the best information available at the time. And I wanted folks to have the benefit of understanding that. And how the Board at its discretion decides to evaluate the environment when the next meets, we'll see. But obviously, it is a better rate outlook, as John said. But as John also said, things rarely stay the same. So, we shall see.

Omar Nokta

Analyst

Yeah. No, that’s clear. I appreciate that. Thanks, guys. That’s it for me.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thank you, Omar.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We show no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

John Hadjipateras

Management

Thank you, Nikki, for running a good show for us. And thank you, Omar, as always, for your difficult and incisive questions, and have a good summer. Talk to you in late July or early August.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And this does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.