Earnings Labs

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 21, 2015

$30.84

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the ManpowerGroup's Third Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. All participants will be able to listen only until the question-and-answer session begins. This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now, I'll turn the meeting over to your host, CEO, Jonas Prising. Sir, you may begin. Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning and welcome to the third quarter 2015 conference call. With me is our Chief Financial Officer, Mike Van Handel. I will start our call by going through some of the highlights for the third quarter and then Mike will go through the details of each segment, the relevant balance sheet items, cash flow as well as forward-looking items for the fourth quarter. Then, I'll be back for some additional thoughts before our Q&A session. But before we go any further into our call, Mike will now read the Safe Harbor language. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Good morning, everyone. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements can be found on the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K and in the other Securities and Exchange Commission filings of the company, which information, is incorporated herein by reference. Any forward-looking statement in today's call speaks only as of the date of which it is made and we assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. During our call today, we will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe provide…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your first question comes from Anj Singh of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead with your question. Anjaneya K. Singh - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I was hoping, first, on France, if you could talk a little bit more about what's driving the strength there. Is it rather broad based? Or are you finding any particular segments that are picking up and driving that trend? Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks for the question. We're seeing some nice recovery in the French market in September after little bit more lackluster in August. And it isn't – we can see that the manufacturing is coming back and if you followed the French PMI, you saw that that's actually moved up a little bit as well. So we think that's an improving sector. The services sector is stable. So I think it's indicative of a slightly improving environment. And of course, as the market improves slightly, there is a need for a workforce and we are the preferred provider of that workforce given that the recovery is still pretty fragile and choppy also in France. So I think that's what you're seeing occur in France. Anjaneya K. Singh - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. Got it. And one for Mike on the French operating margins. Could you quantify how much the subsidy accounts for and in the increased healthcare costs, what would they net to? Do you have a sense on the likelihood of passing on these costs? I'm just trying to get a sense of whether it's a matter of when or if considering the environment in France of passing on these costs? Thanks. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Right. Anj,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question, Jeff Silber of BMO Capital Markets. Go ahead.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

United States

Thanks so much. Just wanted to shift over to the U.S. for a second. Can you tell us a little bit about your intra-quarter trends, specifically in the light industrial areas? Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Sure, sure, Jeff, we can. So overall, we did see manufacturing get a little bit weaker as we've made our way through the quarter. So September was the weaker overall. Things seem relatively stable from where we were in September into October. So it doesn't seem to be stepping down further necessarily. But certainly we did see a little bit more weakening on the industrial side as we made our way through the quarter.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

United States

And any impact on the non-industrial side? I'm just curious, how that side of your U.S. business is doing. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah, the non-industrial side, I think there – things seem to be stable, you look at overall office and clerical, things are still progressing well on the Experis and IT side, we're still seeing good opportunity in the market there. Permanent recruitment across the business is still healthy. It was not quite as strong in Q3 in the U.S. as it was in the second quarter but still we saw 16% growth in perm, in the U.S. in Q3. So still very healthy from that perspective as well.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

United States

And then just a quick numbers question. Can you possibly quantify the impact of the Milano Expo work you mentioned? Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yes, well, you know we haven't identified that specifically, just as it relates to specific client, but I think if you look at our overall Italy growth, without Expo in there, we've seen growth earlier in the year in the 20% range in constant currency and that's accelerated a little bit in the third quarter towards the mid-20%s.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

United States

Okay. Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Gary Bisbee of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Management

Hi. Good morning. I guess just the bigger picture question on perm, which has been really pretty terrific all year in most of the markets you're in. How have you been investing into head count in the last couple of quarters? And what does that sort of indicate as a likely trend over the next few quarters? I mean, comps there are getting more difficult, I guess I'm just trying to assess how much that will impact your growth relative to the investments you've been making. Thank you. Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Thanks, Gary. Yeah. No, we've seen some terrific perm growth. And we think the perm growth comes from two sources. I mean, first of all, there is a cyclical effect of more people being hired and therefore we participate in that through our RPO organization across our brands with permanent recruitment as well as temp to perm conversions. But then we also believe that the investments that we've made not only this year, but in years in past, are starting to pay off from the perspective that clients are seeing us as a provider of permanent recruitment and staffing flexibility. So, in a number of markets where you wouldn't really expect to see such great perm numbers, we are really starting to see this play out such as Italy, also increasingly in France and a number of other countries. As it relates to the question on recruiters, yes, we continue to add in those markets, but of course we do that in very thoughtful and deliberate way, weighing the growth opportunities we still see there. But possibly the rate in some of those markets notably the UK, that's probably not the market where we'll be adding at a rapid pace as we've been doing in the past. So we're always investing in the recruiters when we see the growth opportunities. We still think there are good growth opportunities in a number of markets and that's where we're focused on.

Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Management

Great. And then just a follow-up, in a bunch of the markets, you seem to be growing more slowly than the total industry data. And I realize there is mix issues, U.S. industrial and you've talked about a few of the others, the UK, the one big client issue, et cetera. But how should we think about the mix of the company overall today as it relates to the ability to grow above or in line or below in your major markets? Do you think these are more short-term factors? Or could we have – if we have this sluggish recovery continue, are there several markets where your mix is just likely to lead you to underperform over the next few quarters? Thank you. Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We've actually outperformed in a number of very big markets. So UK, we've been leading the market for the better part of two years and then France we've been leading the market for more than two years despite a very concentrated market. There are a number of examples of that. I think what you're seeing is the effect of being in 80 countries, you're always going to have some markets that take a pause, you should add to that also a very determined effort on our part to make sure that we drive higher value offerings, apply great pricing discipline across the board, across all of our brands. So there are some markets that we've talked about before where we deliberately decide to pass on some opportunities or you don't think are going to be providing value to us as an organization. We spoke about that the Netherlands on our last call. You know that we've been very disciplined in the U.S. as well as we move our margins higher, as we move our bill rates higher, and that's played out for us in a very good way actually, because although the top line may not have been moving in line with the market, our GP line has been moving with and above market and therefore we've been able to generate some good profit growth as well. So I don't think there is anything structural here. We could see some markets move in one direction and other markets move in another. We perform well in a number of those. So I think it's just a reflection of – it's a choppy uneven environment, quite volatile and the things go on and then they go off and then they go back on again. But our overall outlook though is this is still making progress, although it's somewhat choppy and uneven.

Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Management

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Marcon of R.W. Baird. Your line is open. Mark S. Marcon - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Good morning. With regards to France, just in terms of like the choppiness that you've observed over that the course of the last couple of quarters, is there any sort of pattern in terms of specific industries that are turning on and then kind of turning off, so if we take a look at like the Q1 and Q2 progression with regards to the CC growth rate and then the overall Q3 and now here in September, we're actually seeing a nice level of acceleration. Is there anything that you would point to that would say here's what's causing that choppiness? Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: When you look at France and where they are in their economic recovery, you're looking at a country that's seen very little growth and still labor markets that have very high unemployment and actually unemployment is still moving up. So I think it's less indicative of any particular trend than just being a reflection of where France is as a country, which is at the very, very beginning of a cyclical recovery. And just as we experienced in the U.S. at the beginning of our recovery a number of years ago, you'll have some fits and starts and stops as you go through this. I know that economists now predict that the economy will be a little bit better in 2016, although that growth rate, of course, is going to still be very slow. So I think France is moving in the right direction. It's just happening at a very slow pace and with that comes this kind of uneven recovery. Mark S. Marcon…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from George Tong of Piper Jaffray. Your line is open. George K. F. Tong - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Hi. Thanks. Good morning. Can you discuss how the sluggish environment in China will translate into growth trends in the APME segment and potentially impact other regions indirectly at Manpower? Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure, George. So, as it relates to the Chinese market, long-term, we believe this is going to be a very good market, an important market based on their population, the demographics, the amount of skilled workforce that will – that is coming online. And as you've seen, parts of the Chinese economy are clearly slowing down, notably manufacturing, whereas there are other parts of the Chinese economy that is doing quite well, notably the tech sector as well as the services sector. So more than 50% of the Chinese economy today is a services based economy. But it's going through a transformation and as such the growth rate is slowing down. The near-term impact, of course, you can see that in the Pacific Rim countries that depend a lot on them. Mike mentioned in his prepared remarks of Japan. Japan is exporting a lot to China. They're clearing feeling it. South Korea is clearly feeling it. Then there are other markets in Southeast Asia that are feeling it or starting to feel it. If you're also in the commodities business and you're a commodity dependent country like Australia, like Brazil and you have a lot of business with China, you're clearly seeing the impact of that there as well. So those will be the countries that are going to be seeing the biggest impact and as many of you know, the U.S. exposure to the Chinese…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question comes from Kevin McVeigh of Macquarie. Your line is open. Mr. McVeigh, your line is now open. Kevin McVeigh - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Hi. Can you hear me? Sorry about that. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: We can hear you. We can now, Kevin. Kevin McVeigh - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Sorry about that. Hey. Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We can't hear you, Kevin. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Sorry, Kevin. I think, we've got a bad connection. We have to the next caller. You may want to dial back in and let's see, if we can come back to you. Kevin McVeigh - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Can you hear me now, Mike? Can you hear me now? Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: All right. A little bit, yes. Won't you give it a try? Kevin McVeigh - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Sorry about that, I'm on the road. Hey, just real quick. It seems like you're expecting greater growth in 2016 in the U.S. and Europe despite the kind of soft patch we're in. Can you just give us a sense of what gives you that type of confidence, anything you're seeing or things we can monitor as we start to kind of come out of the soft patch, if you would? Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, I think, what I said in my prepared remarks is this then (54:56). What the – the economic outlook by economists is that Europe is expected to improve in terms of economic growth. And for the U.S., it's expected to – some expect it to be a little bit better,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Next question comes from Tobey Sommer of SunTrust. Your line is open.

Tobey Sommer - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

At this point with a couple of years of the Affordable Care Act behind us in the U.S., what do you think the impact has been on demand in your business as well as the expense side and is there much of an expectation for a change going forward? Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, I think that certainly there has been an impact in terms of costs and that tax increase is something that we've been able to manage, we consider it to be part of a cost of doing business and as such, we've been able to pass this on to our clients. In term of the industry dynamics, if you recall, a number of years ago, there is a lot of discussion, how the Healthcare Act would increase the number of companies that, that would revert to temporary staffing and I don't think that we've seen that happened certainly not in the client segments that we serve, maybe in some of the smaller countries, but stepping back – smaller companies. Stepping back though, I think that there is somewhat of a trend of increased legislation in the U.S. and that could be a factor that would drive some organizations to revert to or to reserve to a greater use of temporary staffing, should that trend continue. But the magnitude of that change, should that occur, is quite difficult to estimate.

Tobey Sommer - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

Thank you. Just a follow-up, in terms of your IT staffing business in the U.S., was there any discernible kind of change in buying behavior among large customers in particular kind of financial institutions? Thanks. Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: No. Overall I would say quarter-over-quarter was relatively stable. There is still good demand there and I think we're managing our own business well in terms of the bill rates and making sure we get higher value positions. We increased our margins by 50 basis points on the IT side in the U.S. So we're making some good progress. Having said that, I think there is more opportunity for us in the U.S. that we're not participating in yet. So while we're on the right track, we're not satisfied, but the speed of the progress that we're making to make sure that we deliver services to the opportunity that exists in this market. So I wouldn't – we did not see any significant shifts quarter-over-quarter as far as the client demand was concerned.

Tobey Sommer - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

Thank you. We'll stay tuned. Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay. And this will be the last question. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: One last question, operator.

Operator

Operator

Yes. Next question is Tim McHugh of William Blair. Your line is open. Timothy McHugh - William Blair & Co. LLC: Yes. Thanks, guys. Just wondering if you could elaborate more on the UK, I guess, and how that progressed and, I guess, the comment about the large customer there that was the headwind is. I guess, is that kind of a one-time lap or do you see volumes continue to go down and just any additional color on how to think about the UK going forward? Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Sure, Tim. Yeah. I mean I think overall the UK, we see as a healthy market and certainly growth in the second half appears to come down a little bit compared to what we saw in the first half. In particular, across some of our larger clients, we're seeing a little bit less demand. But overall, I would say the market is still seeing some growth overall. Perm recruitment still is quite good there. We had 20% growth in perm recruitment in the UK market overall. So that was quite positive. And as we did say, yes, we do have one larger client contract that has brought a lot of the business, continues to bring a lot of business, but it is winding down and that will impact us for the next couple of quarters overall in the UK and we'll have some impact in terms of revenue growth for us in the UK, but ex-that, I think the market overall is still good and there's still opportunity for us there. Timothy McHugh - William Blair & Co. LLC: Okay. Thanks. And then just another question, as we think about you mentioned you're looking for another authorization of the buyback, you're obviously…