Earnings Labs

ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 3, 2016

$30.84

-1.14%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to ManpowerGroup Fourth Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. All participants will be on listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session begins. This call is being recorded. If you have an objection, you may disconnect at this time. Now, I'll turn the meeting over to your host, Chairman and CEO, Jonas Prising. Sir, you may begin. Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning and welcome to the fourth quarter 2015 conference call. With me is our Chief Financial Officer, Mike Van Handel. I'll start our call by going through some of the highlights for the fourth quarter and then Mike will go through the details of each segment, the relevant balance sheet items, cash flow, as well as forward-looking items for the first quarter. And then I'll be back for some additional thoughts before our Q&A session. Before we go any further into our call, Mike will now read the Safe Harbor Language. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: This conference call includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements can be found in the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K and in the other Securities and Exchange Commission filings of the company, which information is incorporated herein by reference. Any forward-looking statement in today's call speaks only as of the date of which it is made and we assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. During our call today, we will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures which we believe provide useful information for investors.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for the first question. Your first question comes from Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Andrew Charles Steinerman - JPMorgan Chase & Co.: Mike, let me be the first to congratulate you on your professional evolution. Of course, I've enjoyed our dialog for 18 years and will enjoy our dialog going forward as well. I wanted to ask you about Manpower demand from French industrials, just given your U.S. comments about manufacturers? Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: At this point – Andrew, this is Jonas. Andrew Charles Steinerman - JPMorgan Chase & Co.: Yeah. Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: At this point, Andrew, we're seeing reasonable demand, somewhat improved in the fourth quarter compared to what we saw in the third quarter. And you might have seen the GDP growth numbers from France softened a little bit compared to expectations in the fourth quarter. And what's interesting to note is that softening came primarily from consumer demand. But actual levels of industrial investment reached the same levels as the levels they saw in 2008, so a marked improvement in terms of their outlook and confidence. So, I would say, we saw improvement in the fourth quarter and stability coming into the first couple of weeks here in 2016. Andrew Charles Steinerman - JPMorgan Chase & Co.: And do you think the main difference is the strong dollar? Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We can certainly see that global companies in the U.S. are struggling with the strong dollar because everything – as you can tell from our own results, translation effect of something made here coming into Europe makes it much, much more expensive. So, it certainly impacts them quite significantly. That's what we see from those companies doing the exports from here. Andrew Charles Steinerman - JPMorgan Chase & Co.: Thanks, Jonas. Congrats, Mike. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Thanks, Andrew.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Mark Marcon with R.W. Baird. You may proceed. Mark S. Marcon - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): I'd also like to add my congratulations. Mike, it's been a great friendship and look forward to continue working with you, and congratulations on everything you've done. You've just been an outstanding CFO in this space and I'm sure Jack will get the best training possible to maintain the strong performance you've had. I'm wondering if you can talk just a little bit more with regards to the U.S. in terms of what you're seeing on the industrial side and how it's evolving month to month and what sort of outlook you're hearing from your clients, because the margin performance has been really impressive relative to the revenue performance. So, can you talk a little bit about that and how sustainable that is? And then as a follow up, it's encouraging to hear that the Experis on the IT side is doing better in the U.S. So, I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about what's driving that. Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, maybe I'll start, Mark, and then I'll ask Mike to give some more color on the evolution month to month. The good news is that we've seen – we saw manufacturing – the manufacturing part of our business start to decline at the beginning of 2015, but it's stabilized. It's still weak in terms of where we are in the fourth quarter, but it's stabilized compared to the third quarter. So, it appears not to be getting any worse, which is a good thing. And as you note, we've applied clearly very good pricing discipline, and made sure that we've maintained our margins…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets. You may begin.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

United States

Thank you so much. I wanted to delve a little bit further into the restructuring charges that you disclosed. Can you give us a little bit more color as to what they were, specifically which regions we saw the most impact and what kind of cost savings we should expect from this going forward? Thanks. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Sure, Jeff. Yeah. So, the total amount of the restructuring charge in the quarter was $16.4 million. In terms of breaking that down by segment, about $9 million fell in Northern Europe, $3.2 million in the Americas, about $3 million in Asia Pacific and Middle East, and $1.3 million in Right Management. So, Northern Europe had the biggest piece of that. It's a combination of costs related to some integration of acquisitions across some of these regions, as well as just realigning our cost base, particularly in countries like in Norway, where we are seeing some contraction. So, in terms of the nature of the cost, majority of it would be severance-related cost. But there are some costs related to some office closures, too. We did have a handful of office closures that we are completing, so we do have a combination. In terms of recovering that expense back in the first half of 2016, we should recover that entire $16.4 million investment back, and, of course, that'll be worked to our favor, as well, for the balance of the year and into future years. So, we feel good about how we're positioned, and I thought it was the right time to readjust our cost base in a couple of these markets.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

United States

And do you have an estimate on the annualized cost savings from these moves? Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. So, if you take it on an annualized basis, it's going to run roughly double that amount because the first half is $16.4 million, so you'd get yourself close to that $30 million range on a full year basis.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

United States

All right. Great. And just if I can squeeze in a couple of quick numbers question. The 40% tax rate guidance for the first quarter, is that something we should use for the year and what are you budgeting for capital spending this year? Thanks. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Sure, Jeff. Yeah. First quarter, we always have a higher tax rate just because with it being a lower pre-tax quarter, the effective tax rate is a bit higher due to the permanent items that fall into the tax rate. If you look at the rate on a full year basis, I would expect it to fall somewhere between the 37% and 38% range. So, I guess if you use a midpoint there, 37.5%, that's probably a good starting point there. Of course, with a global company, there's always a number of factors that play into that. But I'd say that's the best estimate I could give you for now. And in terms of capital expenditures, I would expect we'll continue on the path that we've been on the last couple of years, which should be in the range of $50 million to $55 million is what I would expect.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

United States

All right. Thanks. And again, Mike, thanks for all your help. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yes. Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Sara Gubins with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. You may proceed.

Brent Navon - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Hi. This is Brent Navon in for Sara Gubins. Just wanted to dive into Northern Europe. There's a lot of puts and takes with acquisitions in various countries. And can you maybe walk us through some of the drivers of your revenue guidance within that geography? Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. So, we do have obviously a number of countries there. And I think as you look at what we're seeing, for the most part, Northern Europe, we expect revenues overall to be – organically run about the same in the first quarter as what we saw in the fourth quarter, so really a continuation. If you look at some of the pieces within there, the UK still a – I think, still a good market, where we've seen a little bit of softening on the Manpower side of the business, Experis is still running quite nicely there, but the Manpower side is particularly amongst our larger clients. We've seen a little bit of softening there, and we did see some contraction in the UK market as it relates primarily to one of our clients pulling back in terms of demand resulting in contraction in the mid-single digits in the UK. We expect that to continue in the UK as we get into the first quarter. And then looking at other markets, Germany we think will still continue on the path it's been on, which has been good growth for us. In the fourth quarter, it was up 12% overall, about 8% on an average daily revenue basis. Get to Netherlands and Belgium, we expect to continue to improve and see continued growth there. And then when you get up into the Nordics, we expect that Norway being exposed to the oil economy. We think we'll continue to have some challenges there with negative top line contraction, but overall, still – given the environment, still performing quite well for us despite some of the challenges. So, that's in a nutshell covering a lot of different geographies, but that's clearly a mixed group in terms of where those economies are, where those staffing markets are. So, we're seeing a bit of a blended performance there. But I would say in terms of our expectations for Q1, fairly similar to the growth that we saw in Q4.

Brent Navon - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Great, thanks. And just as a follow up on capital allocation, how do you think about the balance between buybacks and M&A? You seem willing to take on a little bit of debt in recent quarters, and is there a peak leverage ratio you'd feel comfortable with? Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. So, we've talked a little bit over the last couple of quarters in terms of capital allocation. I think, overall, our view is that we're maintaining a strong balance sheet, one that would be investment grade from an external rating standpoint overall. Certainly, we do have some room for additional leverage within that rating category for sure. As we think about capital allocation, dividends are first and foremost important to us in terms of maintaining those and increasing those as we have been over the last several years. M&A is something that certainly we watch for opportunities as we look for opportunities, particularly on the professional area to leverage our strength and continue to expand on that side of our business. And so, you've seen us somewhat active this last year in terms of M&A opportunities. But those are kind of opportunistic, so they can be a little bit chunky in terms of how they come into the business and where those opportunities fall. But overall, I would say our primary growth strategy is one of organic growth, not acquisitive growth. But we still look for those opportunities. And then to the extent there's available cash beyond that and beyond just running the business for working capital, we look to share repurchases as a way to get cash back to shareholders. And certainly, you've seen us active in the share repurchase side this year, and I would expect that again going forward just given the fact that our balance sheet is quite strong and fairly delevered at the moment. In terms of overall targets, we don't have a hard and fast rule, a hard and fast target. But I think, overall, we were comfortable in the range of where we've been historically. If you look into the earlier years in 2000 where before the recession, we were in the range of total debt to EBITDA of about 1.5 times or net debt to EBITDA of about 1 times. So we're quite a bit away from that yet, so certainly there's more capacity going forward. So, okay?

Brent Navon - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Yeah. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will be Tobey Sommer with SunTrust. You may proceed.

Tobey Sommer - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

Thanks. I was wondering if you could give us some color on RPO and the growth you're seeing there in terms of new adoption as well as maybe expansion of existing relationships. And then I had one follow-up on the IT growth in the U.S. Is that a change in the market in demand or a function of internal execution improvement? Thanks. Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey. Hi. Good morning, Tobey. I'll start with the last question first, and I think that's – it's not really a change in the market. It's our improved execution and seeing the results from some of the things we've been doing to improve the business so we get back to market growth within the Experis IT business here in the U.S. As it relates to the RPO business, we've seen some very good growth outside of the U.S. where the U.S. should be considered as a reasonably mature market today; certainly much more mature than it is in Europe. And then a number of RPO programs that are also now merging into some of the countries in Latin America and Asia Pacific. So I would characterize the market as being reasonably mature in the U.S., but still with some very good growth opportunities here, much less mature in Europe, which is why we've seen really the leveraging of our best practices and our capabilities into that region with some very good growth in 2015, and then also with some nice growth in emerging markets. So we think that we still have some great opportunities within the RPO business both here in the U.S. as well as elsewhere in the world as this is something that companies are clearly interested in because we take over what is a non-core activity for them and certainly a core activity for us, and we, of course, have the capabilities not only to cover these programs on a national basis but also regionally as well as globally, and that puts us in a very unique category of providers of that kind of offering and solution.

Tobey Sommer - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Management

Thank you, Jonas. And congratulations, Mike. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will be Anj Singh with Credit Suisse. You may proceed. Anjaneya K. Singh - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats again, Mike, on the transition. Wish you the best of luck in the new role and in the future. Just a question on your acquisitions. You had several acquisitions in 2015. Just wanted to get a sense of how they're performing versus your expectations in these early days. Are they generally performing in line? Were these restructuring charges anticipated when you first bought them? Just any surprises, I guess, that you'd call out there? Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Let me give some initial reactions and then I'll give Jonas the opportunity to respond as well. I think when you step back and look at the acquisitions, there were primarily three acquisitions that we did of size, which was Greythorn in Australia, which was on the IT front and helped drive our IT presence within Australia. Then Veritaaq in Canada, which we – Greythorn was completed in June, Veritaaq was completed in September – and that was on the IT front as well and expanded our IT presence in Canada. And then 7S in Germany, which was also completed at the end of September. And that was the largest of them all, and that provided some specialty business along a number of fronts, including IT as well as some SMB business as well, so a good mix of business. And I would say, so far out of the blocks, all are going extremely well in terms of – relative to forecasted performance, they've all have met or exceeded forecast performance so far this year. The integrations, in all case, are going…

Operator

Operator

Your next question will be Paul Ginocchio with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.

Paul L. Ginocchio - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Hey, thanks for taking my question. And, Mike, I want to say that there's a number of CFOs where I'd be happy if they were leaving, but I'm certainly not happy you are. It's been great working with you and I'm glad I'll have a chance to speak with you for the rest of the year. Congratulations. I think earlier, Mike, earlier this year, you were a little more confident on that 4% margin target. It seems like on your commentary now you were talking about needing a little bit more revenue growth. Is that, Mike, am I reading that correctly versus, say, six months ago? And is that some of the reason for the restructuring charges? Or is it really just the little bit of deceleration that we're seeing in the top line? Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Well, I think in terms of timing, you might feel a little bit different. In terms of conviction, no difference. But in terms of timing, I think I probably earlier in the year thought we might get there a little bit sooner, and that really is all to do with top line revenue growth. So, earlier, first half of the year organic top line revenue growth was in that 5% to 6% range. And now, it's running more in the 3% to 4% range. And it's that organic constant currency revenue growth that we need to get that leverage out into the bottom line. And so, yes, I guess, from that perspective, thinking it might take a little bit longer than I would have earlier in the year, but otherwise, fully expect we'll get there. Still certainly hopeful we can get there in 2016. But as I said in my prepared remarks, it would be good to see a little bit more of that top line revenue growth come through and we'd be able to squeeze a little bit more leverage out of the bottom. But I can tell you, my colleagues and I are focused on that 4%, and we'll be working hard in 2016 to try to get there. And, of course, as we've talked about for years, it's always about getting there in the right way. You can always get to 4% or whatever that margin target is, but you could be wobbly. And when we get there, we want to be there on timbers and on a foundation that we can then excel from there and continue to move on from there. So, that's the plan.

Paul L. Ginocchio - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

And the restructuring charges outside of the acquisition integration, the thought there is maybe that gets you – that helps you a little bit, that $30 million in total cost saves is worth 16 bps to the margin. So that would be a little bit of help, correct? And then was that some of the – and that was some of the thinking? Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. I mean, there'll be a little bit of help. I think that really is just running the business as we run the business. Certainly that does help in terms of trying to meet our target goals. But really, this is a matter of sitting back, looking at each geography as we always do and looking at where our cost structure is and how we align. So, again, as you think about some of those restructuring charges, many of those come into markets that are, in certain cases, just contracting a little bit or not seeing the growth that they once saw. And in some cases, we're seeing some productivity enhancements come through and as a result, have a few excess people in some pockets. So, I think it was – it certainly wasn't with the objective of that's what we need to do to get to 4%, but it certainly helps us, and I think is the more – the necessary and right way in terms of running the business effectively.

Paul L. Ginocchio - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Great. Congratulations, Mike. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will be Tim McHugh with William Blair. You may proceed. Tim J. McHugh - William Blair & Co. LLC: Yes. Thanks. Most of it's been asked, but I guess just following up on the last question. I was trying to walk through just as we think about 2016 margins, if you have a benefit from the restructuring cost, I guess you lose some because of the healthcare costs and other kind of benefits costs in France. But I know there's also a little bit of boost you get from some of the other regulatory changes there. Can you walk through it all even from an annual basis, I guess, the puts and takes as we offset those and think about what then on an underlying basis the business needs to do for next year? Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Sure. Yeah. I can give a few thoughts along that. Obviously, there's a lot to play out for the year. But in terms of entering the year and thinking about opportunities, certainly, of course, first I'll start out, hopeful that we see a little bit more organic revenue growth, albeit, we certainly can manage well in this environment. But that certainly would get a little bit more leverage opportunity coming through. I think from a GP margin perspective, I think you've got a number of elements coming through. I expect that permanent recruitment will still continue to be a good growth opportunity. As we get through 2016, that should add to the overall gross margin. So, I think that's one of the pluses. I think on the negative side would be the overall staffing gross margin. I think we'll be under a little bit of pressure in some markets, particularly France as…

Operator

Operator

Our last question from Manav Patnaik with Barclays. You may begin.

Unknown Speaker

Management

Hi. Thanks. This is Ryan (1:06:58) filling in for Manav. Just a quick question on the 1Q guidance. Can you just tell me what's embedded there for acquisitions? Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. So, we don't have any new acquisitions in there. But in terms of impact from acquisitions, it'd be about a 3% impact on revenue, similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter.

Unknown Speaker

Management

Okay. Thanks. And just so – I know it's the last question, but sorry to ask a kind of high-level impact question. But, I guess, two kind of big-picture things. One, in the French labor reform, there's obviously some things coming in March on kind of announcements and updates. So, is there anything you're looking for there? And just any kind of general commentary on, I guess, the fear or concern that a slowdown in China will affect some of the major European economies just from an output standpoint and kind of what you're hearing from clients today? Jonas Prising - Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, maybe start with the French question first. And President Hollande actually announced some initiatives to further improve the labor market in France just a couple of weeks ago. And they include training initiatives, so having 500,000 people go through training, more apprenticeships and hiring incentives for smaller companies. And so the French government continues to try and improve the labor markets. And, of course, that's something that we see as being a generally accepted need across political boundaries. But, for now, we've seen the effects of what they have done, and we have been beneficiaries and participants, of course, also to the implementation of those government policies. So, on the whole, I think the French government and the various political parties know they need to improve the French labor market's competitiveness, and those are some of the things that we've seen. As it relates to this year, Mike talked about the healthcare increases that we see coming through as well as the responsibility pack that comes into play in the second quarter. So, those are just things that are moving in and that they had decided on previously. So, there's no news there. So, we would expect no major movements here until the elections two years from now and just continue on the same path. And as it relates to your question on China, depends a little bit on countries. Yes, there are some countries in Europe that are affected by China to a greater degree than others. But, frankly, I think it's more of a – in many places, it's more of a sentiment than being translated into on the ground action because they're also active in many other parts of the world. So, I think that the outlook generally for Europe from an economic growth perspective with the economies I speak with is better than in 2015, although not as high as it would've been had we asked clients maybe at the mid-part of last year. So, it's moderated somewhat, but it's still better than last year. That will be the outlook.

Unknown Speaker

Management

All right. Thanks, and congrats, Mike. Mike Van Handel - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer: Thank you. So, before we conclude the call, I just want to thank you all for the kind words and congratulatory remarks, and I very much enjoyed working with each of you and look forward to continue to work with you in the quarters ahead. And I also want to just mention, I am supported by wonderful finance colleagues here in Milwaukee and around the world, a terrific group of professionals and just do a fantastic work. So, I would tip my hat to them as well. So, thank you, all. And this concludes the call for today, and we'll talk to you next quarter.