Selim A. Bassoul
Analyst · Robert W
I can give you a lot of color because I've been spending a lot of time with customers, visiting a lot of them. I've been looking at their releases the way you have. I look at the restaurant business as being extremely strong. I would say 2013 will remain very strong for our customers. Just to give you a little bit of same-store sales and growth increases in example. Starbucks reported 7% same store sales in the U.S., 30% growth in Asia. Chili's is around 3% same-store sale in the U.S. Chipotle is around 5%, with a 12% unit growth. Domino's, and I can add to it Pizza Hut and Papa John's, they are almost in the same realm -- around 3% to 4% same-store sales in the U.S., 5% same-store sale internationally. Domino's is expected to open, in 2013, 415 new stores. We talked to Papa John, I think they expect to do maybe 300. Yum! Brands, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, KFC, showing 6% same-store sales in the U.S., 4% same-store sales internationally. Bloomin' Brands, which is Outback, Bonefish, Carrabba's, 4% same-store sales in the U.S. Those are just a sample of restaurants that have reported. And I have to tell you those are phenomenal numbers. When you look back at as far back as 2010, those were negative territories for many of those customers, maybe except Chipotle and Starbucks. But Domino's was not reporting 3% to 4% same-store sales. YUM! was not reporting 6%. Bloomin' Brands was nowhere close to 4%. They were flat or maybe at best 1%. So if you look at what's happening in our restaurant business and our customers, they are really finding the formula to attract people coming in. I have to continue saying that chains figured out a way, whether through advertising, through kitchen remodel, through new menu items, to literally bring in what I call new customers. And I think that this has come at the expense of 2 things: one, if you're a mom-and-pop and you're not able to leverage your capital to change your kitchen, you're out. If you're a badly managed company and I think through the last few years, I mentioned between 2009 and 2010, 125,000 restaurants closed in United States. A huge number, around 15%. So the bad operators are out. So from a Middleby standpoint, every one of those customers I mentioned we do business with. We're well -- very strongly into those chains. And I look at this, I can add Dunkin' Donuts, I can take -- I can add a lot of other customers where they have figured out a way to say, "Okay, I'm not going to grow because the market is going to grow. I'm not going to go out. I have to go and figure out a way to make sure that those people are going and spending the money here and not spending it eating at home." And I think they've done a great job. I am very, very impressed by what they've done. I can give you a great example. I was stunned when the pizza chain offered a $10 pizza. People say how could they do a $10 large pizza? And I have to tell to, it's been very successful for Domino's because they figured out a way to offer a $10 pizza and make money offering a $10 pizza by selling up, by offering other things. So I think our operators, if you look at the restaurant business, I think the next few years, it's a great business. It's a great investment for us as suppliers. It's a great investment to look at because it's good running in operations, leaders in management and restaurant business, must know how to run a business today. They're going to most spend the money, they're going to force their franchisees to be consistent, they're going to basically even if the franchisee can't afford it because they can't get bank loans, the smart ones are going out and saying I will fund, I will bank or fund this, the kitchen remodel. I think Papa John's did the same thing when they introduced WOW! 2. I think they are coming back, say, I don't care. If you can't afford it, I'm going to basically fund that kitchen remodel. I'm going to help you be successful. I think that's been a very, very good thing for us.