Selim Bassoul
Analyst · RBC
So, basically summarized a little bit where the company is going on an organic gross, while the external environment is challenging and restaurant buying habit might change in the short-term. We believe that Middleby will gain market share in the short-term and long-term. We believe that the second half of this year will continue to grow on that organically and for 2 reasons; over 60% of our business is coming from chain and chain continues to invest and remodel tat kitchen platform and adjust their menu offering to better connect with the end user.
We have not seen a large change in restaurant chain behavior, so the question is, do we see it was all what’s going on with the volatility, we have not seen chains cutting back or changing their behavior. On the contrary they are continuing to invest in their platform.
The second reason why we will see market share gain is the fact that restaurant operators are looking for specific product that can make them more money with immediate payback. And as I mentioned earlier, we are now having over 12 new product that are critical to making money to the restaurant operator. Those products are not discretionary. We are rolling out many of those products today, and we see more chains asking for them.
Our success with casual dining has brought forth many other chains that are looking for a similar results to what we have accomplished with that specific chain that we started over a year ago. In Europe, while the markets are very difficult right now. Middleby sales in Europe account for less than 16% of our total sales. While most European markets are struggling, we see opportunities in the UK and in Eastern Europe, starting the fourth quarter of 2012.
Our Lincat division in the UK will grow stronger also toward the end of the year. And specifically in 2013 due to the introduction in several new markets, products and to the final successful testing with several UK chain. In Eastern Europe we continue to see store openings of U.S. based chains which are pulling up into this market.
So, while Europe continues to be volatile, it will not be significant drag on our total sales. The only challenge I see is the foreign exchange impact in our bottom-line if the dollars continue to strengthen.
Emerging market, we see a significant growth for Middleby this year and 2013 in China, India, Latin America and specifically the Middle East where we continue to grow double-digit in that market. Our market share in that segment in the Middle East is less than 5% and we us literally doubling that penetration by 2014.
In summary, we see our international market to grow in double-digit despite the slowdown in Europe in 2013. Our M&A, we are delighted by the closing of our new credit facility of $1 billion with the cost of capital of LIBOR plus 150 basis points. This allow us to fund strategic acquisition in the near future. The acquisition pipeline remains solid both on the food processing and the commercial food service. We are also seeing largest size transaction specifically in food service within the next 12 to 16 months. Many of these companies are specifically looking to be acquired by strategic partner.
What is the overall state of the restaurant industry? As many of you are following us, as you follow our customers. During good times and bad times we eat out. Buying habits may change and the amount of time and money we spend may vary due to the current economic trends. But the fact remain, that American will dine out. And it's not going to be Americans, we are basically teaching the rest of the word to dine out too, whether it's place in Jordan, whether it's place in China, Malaysia or India, everybody is planning up to dinning out.
To just validate my point, let’s look at the food dollar spend on dining outside the home. In 1962, we spent $0.28 out of every food dollar for dining out. Today that number is over $0.52. I predict that you will take up less than 15 years to be spending around $0.70 outside the home. Just anecdotally, just watch your children, I think most of them eat out more than they eat in. So, this trend is in our favor.
Second, also recent recessionary times have affected our buying habits; restaurants have bounced back since 2010. It's a badly located restaurant and the concept was bad food and bad service did not survive this downturn. By early 2010, over 15% of old restaurant in U.S. closed down. Between 2008 and 2010, roughly 125,000 restaurants closed their doors. To-date the one who survived are well run. They are good well managed, well operated and they connect well with their customer. In 2011, restaurant revenue was up 3% from the previous year and is expected to be up 4%, total restaurant revenue will be up 4% in 2012. We are also starting to see chains opening new store in the U.S. for the first time started this year, we are starting to see traditional chains opening new stores in the U.S. While we are not back to the 2007 levels, it is a long way better than where we were in 2009 and 2010.
The other trend we see is definitely menu changes to meet popular customer wants, and here they are. Customers today want basic comfort food which drive significant sales to fryers, oven and rangers. Number two; they want healthy menu items which drive griddle and char broilers. They want value meals, they want healthy, they want basic comfort food at a value proposition. It's driving conveyer ovens and they are driving holding cabinets and warming equipment.
Number four, people want to be able to eat well in non-traditional location, such as airports and you are starting to see significant airport upgrading their food outlets and that bodes well for our ventless equipment and our counted top equipment.
Middleby is today leadings of kitchen innovation for preparing breakfast, sandwiches and burgers. We are also changing the way casual dining is preparing its food. Every 6 hours a casual dining restaurant is being automated using Middleby's patented technology. As I mentioned before international chains continue to grow fast as we follow American chains around the globe. In addition to seeing traditional fast food chains like McDonalds, KFC, Starbucks, Pizza Hut, Dominos, Burger King, Papa John’s, Subway, we are now seeing full service casual dining chain such as Chili's, TGI Friday, Cheesecake Factory, having tremendous success in overseas market. This is the beginning of the expansion worldwide. We are thrilled to be a great part of their growth.
Finally, I’d like to sum up; pizza business is growing fast and accelerating fast overseas. The recent example of Dominos and Papa John and Pizza Hut in places like India, UK, Russia and Southeast Asia. Companies with new product development and menu items are posting robust results, example, Taco Bell, Chili’s, Panera Bread. We will continue to see strong growth at kitchen efficiencies by many operators in China and Southeast Asia where labor inflation continues to rise. They are going to be forced to look at equipment that’s efficient to cut labor in their kitchen, for that Middleby is very well positioned.
This ends my comment and thank you.