Good morning, and welcome to the Markel Corporation Third Quarter 2021 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] During the call today, we may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. They are based on current assumptions and opinions concerning a variety of known and unknown risks. Actual results may differ materially from these contained in or suggested by such forward-looking statements. Additional information about factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements is included in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly report on Form 10-Q, including under the captions, Risk Factors and Safe Harbor and Cautionary Statement. We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. You may find the most directly comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation to GAAP for these measures in our most recent Form 10-Q, which can be found on our website at www.markel.com in the For Investors section. Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Tom Gayner, Co-Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thank you. This is indeed Tom Gayner, and it is my privilege to welcome you to the third quarter update call for Markel. Markel operates as a long-term organization with the preferred time horizon of infinity. We're all dedicated to the idea of building one of the world's great companies, and we mean to do it forever. We're doing this as a public company. And as so, we file quarterly financial statements every 90 days. In accordance with that cadence, we host this call where we try to update you, our business partners, with updated quarterly financial information. We also try to share some comments and context on current conditions in our businesses and thoughts on what we're working on these days. I'm joined this morning by my Co-CEO, Richie Whitt; and our CFO, Jeremy Noble. Jeremy will speak to the overall results for the first 9 months of 2021. Richie will then update us on our insurance, reinsurance and ILS operations, and then I'll return with a few comments about our investment activities and our Markel Ventures operations. After that, we'll open the floor for your questions. We deeply appreciate you, our shareholders, and the long-term partnership and shared sense of purpose that we have with you. We appreciate the opportunity to connect through this forum, and we look forward to your thoughtful questions. With that, I'll turn it over to Jeremy.

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. It's hard to believe that we are already in the final quarter of 2021, but I am happy to report that through 3 quarters, it's been a very good year. All 3 of our operating engines are adding value to Markel and contributing to our efforts to build shareholder value. Starting off with our underwriting operations. Gross written premiums were $6.3 billion for the first 9 months of 2021 compared to $5.4 billion in 2020, an increase of 17%. Our increased premium volume reflects both strong growth in new business as well as ongoing favorable pricing trends across most of our product lines, most prominently within our professional liability and general liability product lines in both our Insurance and Reinsurance segments. Retention of gross written premiums was 84% for the first 9 months of 2021, up less than 1 point from the same period last year. Earned premiums increased 15% to $4.7 billion for the first 9 months of 2021 versus the same period last year, primarily due to higher premium volume in our professional liability and general liability product lines. Our consolidated combined ratio for the first 9 months of 2021 was a 91%, which included $182 million or 4 points of losses from natural catastrophes, including Hurricane Ida, the floods in Europe and Winter Storm Uri, compared to our combined ratio of 101% for the same period of 2020, which included $372 million or 9 points of losses from COVID-19 and $102 million or 2 points of losses from natural catastrophes. Excluding the loss impacts of catastrophes and COVID-19 in both years, our consolidated combined ratio for the first 9 months of 2021 was an 87% compared to 90% for the same period in 2020. This improvement reflects a nearly 4-point…

Thanks, Jeremy, and good morning, everyone. As Jeremy said, with one quarter to go in 2021, we've put ourselves in a position to achieve our profitability and growth goals of a 90% combined ratio and double-digit growth for the year. Through the first 9 months of the year, we achieved a 91% combined ratio, even with significant catastrophe events happening during the year. While our third quarter results were impacted by natural catastrophes, including Hurricane Ida and the European floods, our strategy of reducing our catastrophe exposures enabled us to achieve a 93% combined ratio in the quarter. By transitioning our reinsurance property lines to the ILS market with Nephila, launching the Lodgepine retro fund and strategically purchasing reinsurance, we proactively managed down our exposures to these events and stayed on course to hit our 2021 goals. Regarding growth, we continue to see attractive new business opportunities, coupled with the strong rating environment. This has resulted in significant premium growth in our Insurance segment, producing an impressive 25% growth rate in the third quarter and 20% growth through the first 9 months of the year. Insurance market conditions remain the best we have seen since the last hard market in the early 2000s. Now I'll discuss our year-to-date results within our insurance operations, which include our underwriting operations, State National Program Services operations and insurance-linked securities operations. So I'll kick it off with the Insurance segment. As I just mentioned, gross written premiums in the Insurance segment for the first 9 months of the year were up 20% over prior year at just under $5.4 billion in total premium writings. Earned premiums were up 16% year-to-date. We continue to see growth across many of our product lines, in particular, within our professional liability, and general liability product lines where we…

Thank you, Richie. I'm happy to report to you that we earned 5.1% on our investment portfolio during the first 9 months of 2021. That came from returns of 18.1% on our equity portfolio and a loss of 0.5% on our fixed income holdings. I'm delighted with those results. While the results from any one quarter and in fact, any one year or anything less than about 5 years are about 80% noise and 20% substance, it's always more fun to talk about good numbers than bad ones, and those are good numbers. When our accountants hand me the table that displays our returns, the cumulative table at the end shows the investment results that started in 1989. In the 31.75 years that that chart displays, we've earned an annual rate of return of 12.9% on our equity holdings compared to the S&P 500 return of 11.7% and annual returns of 5.9% on our fixed income portfolio for a total return of 7.3%. When you get to 31.75 year time frames, I would argue that the noise fades away and that you're left with substantive fundamentals. That is what matters to us, and I hope you are pleased with those results. Our process which produced them remains unchanged. My only commentary about investment markets is that we continue to see pockets of opportunity. We continue to purchase additional stakes in publicly traded businesses. We're following the same discipline and Markel benefits from the ability to regularly dollar cost average into our holdings. Positive cash flows from both our insurance and ventures operations create this advantage. As to Markel Ventures, I keep using the same 2 words I've used since the start of the pandemic, I am grateful and amazed for the work and the results of our operations. On the…

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Mark Hughes of Truist.

Yes. This is the other Mark Hughes. Could you talk about the growth in the insurance business? This nice acceleration in written premiums, I think you talked about the good market conditions. Is it that the market conditions are getting better? Or you're rolling out the new products, focusing on new lines that are helping you to grow the top line more quickly?

Mark, it's Richie. In terms of the market, it was interesting. We sort of hit another gear in the third quarter. And as you saw, that was that's been our highest growth rate quarter of the year. One quarter doesn't make a trend. We'll see what fourth quarter looks like. But we had quite a bit of success in the third quarter. And it felt like more of the same. There were probably a few big policies in there and things of that sort. But I know people have been talking about rate increases and sort of crested and they were starting to come off. And I agree with that assessment, but it felt like in the third quarter, the market gained back a little bit of momentum. And I don't know if this is the case, but I tend to put some of it to the cat events in the third quarter. I think that probably damaged some people's earnings for the year after some -- after a year last year that was somewhat disappointing. And so I think some of the cat losses, and I think some of the concern around inflation and then social inflation, I think all of that might have tipped in some people's resolve because we felt we felt like the third quarter, we saw a little bit of a shift. We saw a little bit more momentum in the third quarter. We'll see how fourth quarter goes.

Yes, Interesting. On Hagerty, what is the latest thinking in terms of potential book value impact? And what would be the timing of that impact on book?

Mark, it's Jeremy. We kind of have to finalize. I mean, obviously, first off, Hagerty actually has to go through sort of the listing. But as and when they do, we account for our investment in Hagerty on the equity method of accounting. And that won't change because of that percentage ownership we have in Hagerty. So that sort of mark-to-market, even though it's publicly listed will not be reflected directly in the book value. It would be more of an unrealized gain, if you will. There is some accounting noise that we'll work through once the deal is listed because of the aspect of being an investor in the pipe because of the aspect of some of the dilution that's created under the transaction, and all of that will get reported within our financial statement as and when that deal closes. But the main thing I would caution you right now is in accounting and GAAP's infinite wisdom, it would not appear that that would be a mark-to-market relative to the fair value and the valuation of Hagerty.

Okay. And then how about the workers' comp line, I'll ask that, just trying to figure out if that's hitting any sort of inflection? Does it look more attractive, less attractive to you? Are you seeing a little bit of rate there, just a update would be great?

Workers' comp has been stubbornly flat to slightly down. We're still tracking rates 0% to 3% down in terms of the workers' comp market. So I mean, it is one of the very few lines I can think of that really have not reacted in the current market. In fairness, results have been very good in workers' comp. And the impact that people feared from COVID, at least to this point, has not manifested. So I would say at current pricing, we're cautious in terms of workers' compensation. We -- because rates have been going down, not hugely, but rates have been going down for a few years now, and we've all seen workers' comp can move very quickly. It can move very quickly to unprofitability. It can move very quickly to profitability. So we're going to keep an eye on it right now and recognize that it is almost the only outlier from what has been increasing rates and better terms in other lines.

The next question comes from John Fox of Fenimore Asset Management.

Terrific results. A couple of questions for Richie. Richie, could you talk about the Reinsurance segment? The cat losses were, on a dollar basis, about the same, September this year and last year, a little bit less percentage-wise. Could you just kind of level set how is this third quarter cat for the industry versus last year? I know we had Hurricane Ida, but I'm not remembering how significant it was last year.

Right, John. Well, what I would tell you, and I think this is worth focusing on is the only business -- when we talk about our Reinsurance Property business that was transferred over to Nephila, the only thing that's left is multiyear policies that are going to take a couple of more -- well, the are going to runoff -- pretty much will be completely run off by the end of next year. So the reality is we were out of that business at January 1. We didn't write anything new, but we had some policies, and they tended to be large that were run off. And so they were hit. Some of them were hit in Yuri, some of them were hit with Ida. After next year, you wouldn't expect those losses. We wouldn't expect to see those losses because that book has moved. On the retro side, again, we're only about halfway moved into the ILS model. And of course, we will take some portion of that back, a minority position in that back through investment results. But we're kind of midway through that transition. And so once we complete that transition activity from any kind of cat losses on the retro book would show up through investment results. So I can't remember what the number is. I think it was whatever it was and in reinsurance, that number next year, if we complete the transitions, you wouldn't expect to see much of any cap number -- it was $93 million, I guess, for the 9 months. You wouldn't expect to see much of anything next year as we have transitioned both of those to an ILS model.

John, it's Jeremy. Just to jump in as well. Last year, to Richie's point, we would not have had any losses come through on the retro book. So that's a difference in the quarter when you're looking at that $68 million versus $70 million kind of flattish. This year would have had retro losses, last year wouldn't know. So -- and actually, probably the better part of sort of 2/3 of that loss is kind of more on the retro side versus the globally runoff. So you would see a little bit like-for-like, lower losses this year than last year in the quarter.

Yes, last year was a clean year for Retro, John. This year, both the European floods and Ida are of a size that they will get into people's retro programs.

Okay. And you did indicate in the Q that there was a tail on summaries. And can you talk about ILS. I know you press released on a settlement with CATCo with those funds. Are there any expenses in the ILS segment related to that? Or is this really the run rate in terms of revenue and expense relationship that we see in the third quarter.

So the -- any potential the expenses from that potential transaction, we said in the press releases, Markel is going to fund the return of investors' capital, that could be up to $270 million. We would get that money back over time as the reserves settle out. We think that's over the next couple of years. And then we were also adding, for the benefit of investors, a payment of about $75 million. When the transaction closes, after it gets all of its investor and court approvals, at that point, that would crystallize, and Markel would recognize the $75 million in expenses. So this quarter, none of that's in this quarter because it hasn't closed yet. And so expenses you're seeing right now, they're rough -- I would say roughly runway, right? Can you think of anything...

Yes, there to be a little bit of sort of professional fees associated with that transaction. But to Richie's point, the main payment to and for the benefit of investors, that $75 million, that would be recognized once the process is further completed through the courts and with the investors.

[Operator Instructions] And our next question will come from Scott Heleniak of RBC.

I wonder if you could touch on where your rate increases are now versus average loss trends? And Richie, I know you made a comment about -- you sound pretty bullish on kind of where rates are heading into 2022. And just wondering if you are sort of expecting rate increases to outpace loss cost inflation for next year too? It sounds like you're pretty optimistic about what you're seeing, but if you could comment further on that.

Sure, Scott. Yes, I am optimistic about that. We're averaging through the third quarter, about 10% rate increases, and that differs widely by line of business. You'd see much higher rate increases in casualty and professional liability, you'd see much lower rate increases in personal lines and some of your smaller retail sorts of lines. But overall, through the first 9 months, we averaged about 10%. I absolutely believe that's ahead of trend, but the caveat there is, I don't think any of us can know with certainty what trend is. We know we've got a little back bounce of inflation right now. We also know that the pendulum is always swinging in terms of social inflation, and it seems to be swinging towards more social inflation right now. So I think trend is more, but I don't know exactly what it is. And unfortunately, in insurance, you don't know what it is until years later. I think we have a decent margin against trend right now. But my message to my underwriters is we know trend is more than it was. And so we need to keep our foot on the gas in terms of rates and terms to make sure we maintain a margin against that trend. And I am optimistic in 2022 that we can continue to do that. I think rates are still justified and needed in the market. And so in '22, I hope we continue to see nice rate increases.

Okay. That's helpful. I definitely appreciate the -- we definitely can't predict what's going to happen with pricing and certainly with loss cost inflation, but it sounds like you have a margin safety in there.

It feels like it.

Yes. And then just switching gears, the reserve releases, I wonder if you could give a little more detail on that, just for the quarter. I know you mentioned 9 months, they're pretty significant, but wondering if there's sort of where those are coming from and if there's any additions or offsets to those in either unit? Or it's just consistent with the first half of the year?

Scott, it's pretty consistent. I mean, again, it's the same lines that are driving it predominantly, particularly in the insurance space where the most prior year takedowns would be. So looking at general liability, professional liability, workers' comp and property lines. So in the quarter, pretty similar to the trend for the year.

Apparently, there's new news, if you will, with regards to the favorable prior year losses.

Yes. got it. And then -- go ahead, did you -- were you going to say something?

No, no. That's fine, Scott. Go ahead.

Okay. And just wondering on the cat loss, you gave the cat loss number for the quarter. And wondering if you could break that out, what Ida was versus European floods? Are you willing to be able to do that? Just so we could get a size of those losses, what those were?

Yes, we didn't quantify exactly. But what I would tell you is that quarter-to-date, you can go to roughly a 70% Ida, 30% European floods. I mean European floods would predominantly feature in the property retro book.

Okay. That's helpful. Okay. And then lastly, just on the ventures, I know you mentioned supply chain raw material costs, a lot of companies, a lot of industries are facing that and obviously impacted profitability. But is there any particular business that you can highlight where it's having the biggest impact? And do you expect to see similar pressures in Q4 and 2022? Just any more detail on kind of what's going on there?

Yes, there's good news about is that the and the sort of same thing is both good news and bad news. I would say it's across the board. So inflationary pressures exist in pretty much any business that I'm aware of, whether it's the insurance business, whether it's any of the Markel Venture businesses, whether it's the companies we invest in. You're just seeing it everywhere because to the extent you use people or you use stuff, price for both are going up. Now one of the advantages we have through the Markel Ventures business, particularly, is that the feedback loops are pretty quick. We're not expending a huge capital item to build some huge facility. And then using that for 20 years and then being surprised at how much it costs to build a new one. You get daily feedback of what your costs are and a pretty quick feedback loop. And so there's oftentimes a time lag between being able to get a customer to accept a price increase for what you're seeing on the input cost side, and that's what you're seeing in this particular quarter. But every person running those businesses is asking and receiving price increases from their customers because the cost of everything is going up.

Yes. Got it, that makes sense. And then -- so the -- so is the run rate we're seeing wasn't impacted by anything onetime? Or this is just kind of the new cost doing business, right? Just...

There's some minor puts and takes of things that would have happened last year and this year, but that's also why I've made the distinction and point about separating substance from the noise. If you look at it on a multiyear basis, the growth and the consistent profitability of Markel Ventures is there, and there's nothing that I'm concerned about that would disrupt that.

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tom Gayner for any closing remarks.

Thank you very much, and we wish everybody a happy upcoming holiday season. Be well.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.